| Crop | 2026 Est. | 2025 Final | 5-Yr Avg | YoY | vs. Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton | 9.85M | 9.28M | 11.13M | ▲ +6.1% | ▼ -11.5% |
| Corn | 95.34M | 98.79M | 93.08M | ▼ -3.5% | ▲ +2.4% |
| Soybeans | 85.36M | 81.22M | 85.34M | ▲ +5.1% | ◆ unch |
| Winter Wheat | 31.52M | 33.15M | 34.07M | ▼ -4.9% | ▼ -7.5% |
| Spring Wheat | 9.39M | 9.99M | 10.83M | ▼ -6.0% | ▼ -13.3% |
Highlighted rows: change ≥5% vs. prior year (red) or vs. 5-year average (gold). Winter Wheat covers both HRW (KC contract) and SRW (Chicago contract).
| Crop | Mar (Prospective) | Jun (Acreage) | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton | 9.64M | 9.85M | ▲ +2.2% |
| Corn | 95.34M | 95.34M | ◆ unch |
| Soybeans | 84.70M | 85.36M | ▲ +0.8% notable revision |
| Winter Wheat | 32.41M | 31.52M | ▼ -2.7% notable revision |
| Spring Wheat | 9.41M | 9.39M | ◆ unch |
Notable revision = ≥500K acres change between March and June estimates.
Mechanical implication of the acreage revision alone, holding the June WASDE yield fixed. It is not a forecast of what USDA will print: the agency can and does move yield in the same release, which is exactly what the attribution below measures.
| Crop | 1M acres = | End Stocks | % of Stocks | Days of Use | Harv. share × yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton | 1.39M bales | 4.1 M bales | 33.9% | 36.5 | 0.765 × 872.0 lb |
| Corn | 168M bu | 1,790 M bu | 9.4% | 3.8 | 0.917 × 183.0 bu |
| Soybeans | 52M bu | 310 M bu | 16.9% | 4.2 | 0.988 × 53.0 bu |
| Wheat | 36M bu | 722 M bu | 5.0% | 7.0 | 0.752 × 47.9 bu |
One million planted acres converted to bushels — 480-lb bales for cotton — at the current WASDE harvested share and projected yield, then measured against the same report's ending stocks and total use. These move with every WASDE, so the figures are a snapshot of today's balance sheet, not constants.
The June WASDE still runs on March intentions; the July WASDE is the first to absorb the June 30 Acreage report. Splitting that revision into the part driven by the acreage change and the part driven by USDA's yield change shows how much of the acreage surprise actually survives into production. Bars above and below zero in the same year mean the two worked against each other.
Acreage explains 80% of revision magnitude for cotton, yield 20%. USDA moved yield against the acreage change in 7 of 17 years. Source: USDA WASDE.
| Year | Acre revision (M ac) | Yield revision (lb) | Acreage effect (M bales) | Yield effect (M bales) | Actual (M bales) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | +0.57 | +30.0 | +464.55 | +294.90 | +1.60 |
| 2011 | -0.60 | +0.0 | -480.00 | +0.00 | -1.00 |
| 2012 | -0.10 | +8.0 | -77.70 | +84.00 | +0.00 |
| 2013 | -0.30 | +31.0 | -240.00 | +251.10 | +0.00 |
| 2014 | +0.95 | -7.0 | +781.85 | -61.25 | +1.50 |
| 2015 | -0.10 | +10.0 | -80.90 | +86.00 | +0.00 |
| 2016 | +0.50 | +8.0 | +403.50 | +70.40 | +1.00 |
| 2017 | -0.20 | +6.0 | -162.00 | +68.28 | -0.20 |
| 2018 | -0.62 | +4.0 | -521.42 | +44.52 | -1.00 |
| 2019 | -0.05 | +3.0 | -42.10 | +37.62 | +0.00 |
| 2020 | -1.10 | -5.0 | -907.50 | -56.75 | -2.00 |
| 2021 | +0.87 | -33.0 | +736.89 | -317.79 | +0.80 |
| 2022 | -0.59 | +3.0 | -511.53 | +27.42 | -1.00 |
| 2023 | +0.12 | -10.0 | +100.92 | -94.10 | +0.00 |
| 2024 | +0.54 | +2.0 | +454.68 | +18.26 | +1.00 |
| 2025 | +0.47 | -11.0 | +385.40 | -90.09 | +0.60 |
| 2026 | +0.16 | +6.0 | +138.56 | +44.28 | +0.40 |
Acreage explains 61% of revision magnitude for corn, yield 39%. USDA moved yield against the acreage change in 1 of 17 years. Source: USDA WASDE.
| Year | Acre revision (M ac) | Yield revision (bu) | Acreage effect (M bu) | Yield effect (M bu) | Actual (M bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | -0.80 | +0.0 | -131 | +0 | -125 |
| 2011 | +1.70 | +0.0 | +270 | +0 | +270 |
| 2012 | -0.20 | -20.0 | -33 | -1,782 | -1,820 |
| 2013 | -0.40 | +0.0 | -63 | +0 | -55 |
| 2014 | -0.50 | +0.0 | -83 | +0 | -75 |
| 2015 | -0.60 | +0.0 | -100 | +0 | -100 |
| 2016 | +0.70 | +0.0 | +118 | +0 | +110 |
| 2017 | +1.10 | +0.0 | +188 | +0 | +190 |
| 2018 | +1.10 | +0.0 | +191 | +0 | +190 |
| 2019 | +1.20 | +0.0 | +199 | +0 | +195 |
| 2020 | -5.60 | +0.0 | -1,000 | +0 | -995 |
| 2021 | +1.00 | +0.0 | +180 | +0 | +175 |
| 2022 | +0.20 | +0.0 | +35 | +0 | +45 |
| 2023 | +2.20 | -4.0 | +399 | -336 | +55 |
| 2024 | +1.30 | +0.0 | +235 | +0 | +240 |
| 2025 | -0.60 | +0.0 | -109 | +0 | -115 |
| 2026 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0 | +0 | +5 |
Acreage explains 78% of revision magnitude for soybeans, yield 22%. USDA moved yield against the acreage change in 1 of 17 years. Source: USDA WASDE.
| Year | Acre revision (M ac) | Yield revision (bu) | Acreage effect (M bu) | Yield effect (M bu) | Actual (M bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | +0.90 | +0.0 | +39 | +0 | +35 |
| 2011 | -1.40 | +0.0 | -61 | +0 | -60 |
| 2012 | +2.30 | -3.4 | +101 | -248 | -155 |
| 2013 | +0.70 | +0.0 | +31 | +0 | +30 |
| 2014 | +3.60 | +0.0 | +163 | +0 | +165 |
| 2015 | +0.70 | +0.0 | +32 | +0 | +35 |
| 2016 | +1.60 | +0.0 | +75 | +0 | +80 |
| 2017 | +0.10 | +0.0 | +5 | +0 | +5 |
| 2018 | +0.70 | +0.0 | +34 | +0 | +30 |
| 2019 | -4.50 | -1.0 | -223 | -84 | -305 |
| 2020 | +0.20 | +0.0 | +10 | +0 | +10 |
| 2021 | +0.00 | +0.0 | +0 | +0 | +0 |
| 2022 | -2.60 | +0.0 | -134 | +0 | -135 |
| 2023 | -4.00 | +0.0 | -208 | +0 | -210 |
| 2024 | -0.30 | +0.0 | -16 | +0 | -15 |
| 2025 | -0.20 | +0.0 | -11 | +0 | -5 |
| 2026 | +0.70 | +0.0 | +37 | +0 | +40 |
Acreage explains 38% of revision magnitude for wheat, yield 62%. USDA moved yield against the acreage change in 7 of 17 years. Source: USDA WASDE.
| Year | Acre revision (M ac) | Yield revision (bu) | Acreage effect (M bu) | Yield effect (M bu) | Actual (M bu) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | +1.20 | +2.0 | +53 | +94 | +149 |
| 2011 | -0.60 | +1.5 | -26 | +72 | +48 |
| 2012 | -0.40 | +0.2 | -18 | +10 | -10 |
| 2013 | -1.00 | +1.6 | -45 | +75 | +34 |
| 2014 | +0.30 | +0.8 | +13 | +37 | +50 |
| 2015 | +0.50 | +0.1 | +22 | +5 | +27 |
| 2016 | +1.30 | +2.7 | +63 | +116 | +184 |
| 2017 | -0.40 | -1.1 | -19 | -42 | -64 |
| 2018 | +0.70 | +0.6 | +33 | +23 | +54 |
| 2019 | -0.60 | +1.3 | -29 | +51 | +18 |
| 2020 | -1.00 | -0.1 | -50 | -4 | -53 |
| 2021 | +0.70 | -4.9 | +35 | -183 | -152 |
| 2022 | +0.50 | +0.4 | +23 | +15 | +44 |
| 2023 | +0.60 | +1.2 | +27 | +45 | +74 |
| 2024 | +0.80 | +2.4 | +40 | +91 | +133 |
| 2025 | -0.60 | +1.0 | -31 | +37 | +8 |
| 2026 | -0.80 | +0.9 | -38 | +30 | -7 |
Planted acres are what this report measures; WASDE production runs on harvested acres. The gap is where the acreage signal leaks away, and it leaks very differently by crop.
Share of planted acres that reached harvest. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats.
| Year | Cotton | Corn | Soybeans | Winter Wheat | Spring Wheat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 88.0% | 91.7% | 98.7% | 76.9% | 98.3% |
| 1997 | 96.5% | 91.4% | 98.7% | 86.2% | 95.8% |
| 1998 | 79.8% | 90.5% | 97.8% | 86.4% | 97.3% |
| 1999 | 90.3% | 91.1% | 98.3% | 81.9% | 96.2% |
| 2000 | 84.1% | 91.1% | 97.5% | 80.8% | 94.7% |
| 2001 | 87.7% | 90.8% | 98.5% | 76.1% | 93.2% |
| 2002 | 89.0% | 87.9% | 98.0% | 71.2% | 85.5% |
| 2003 | 89.0% | 90.3% | 98.7% | 81.0% | 97.1% |
| 2004 | 95.6% | 91.0% | 98.3% | 79.5% | 95.7% |
| 2005 | 96.9% | 91.9% | 98.9% | 83.6% | 97.0% |
| 2006 | 83.4% | 90.2% | 98.8% | 76.7% | 93.1% |
| 2007 | 96.9% | 92.5% | 99.1% | 79.8% | 97.4% |
| 2008 | 79.9% | 91.4% | 98.6% | 85.5% | 95.4% |
| 2009 | 82.3% | 92.0% | 98.6% | 79.8% | 97.6% |
| 2010 | 97.5% | 92.4% | 99.0% | 85.4% | 97.5% |
| 2011 | 64.2% | 91.2% | 98.3% | 79.8% | 97.4% |
| 2012 | 76.0% | 89.8% | 98.6% | 84.6% | 98.1% |
| 2013 | 72.4% | 91.7% | 99.2% | 75.5% | 97.7% |
| 2014 | 83.9% | 91.8% | 99.2% | 76.2% | 97.8% |
| 2015 | 94.1% | 91.7% | 98.9% | 81.5% | 97.7% |
| 2016 | 94.4% | 92.3% | 99.1% | 83.6% | 97.4% |
| 2017 | 87.3% | 91.8% | 99.3% | 77.3% | 92.1% |
| 2018 | 70.9% | 91.4% | 98.2% | 76.0% | 97.7% |
| 2019 | 83.7% | 90.6% | 98.4% | 78.1% | 91.8% |
| 2020 | 67.9% | 90.9% | 99.1% | 75.0% | 98.3% |
| 2021 | 91.6% | 91.5% | 99.0% | 75.6% | 88.9% |
| 2022 | 53.0% | 89.3% | 98.5% | 70.5% | 96.3% |
| 2023 | 62.9% | 91.4% | 98.4% | 66.9% | 97.5% |
| 2024 | 69.4% | 91.4% | 98.8% | 78.1% | 97.3% |
| 2025 | 84.3% | 92.4% | 99.0% | 76.9% | 96.2% |
| Crop | Mean Harvested | Worst | Year | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton | 84.7% | 53.0% | 2022 | 44.5 pts |
| Corn | 91.0% | 85.9% | 1993 | 6.6 pts |
| Soybeans | 98.5% | 95.4% | 1993 | 3.9 pts |
| Winter Wheat | 79.7% | 66.9% | 2023 | 20.7 pts |
| Spring Wheat | 95.8% | 85.5% | 2002 | 12.8 pts |
Range = spread between the best and worst harvested share on record, and it is the error bar on every bushel figure above. A planted acre of soybeans is worth almost exactly one harvested acre; a planted acre of cotton or winter wheat is a claim on the weather. Winter wheat is not split into HRW and SRW because NASS does not publish harvested area by winter-wheat class nationally.
Planted acres per crop, last 12 years. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats.
| Year | Cotton | Corn | Soybeans | Winter Wheat | Spring Wheat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 11.15M | 90.60M | 83.30M | 42.41M | 13.03M |
| 2015 | 8.58M | 88.02M | 82.66M | 39.68M | 13.37M |
| 2016 | 10.07M | 94.00M | 83.45M | 36.15M | 11.55M |
| 2017 | 12.72M | 90.17M | 90.16M | 32.73M | 11.02M |
| 2018 | 14.08M | 88.82M | 89.17M | 32.54M | 13.20M |
| 2019 | 13.72M | 89.37M | 76.10M | 31.47M | 12.67M |
| 2020 | 12.09M | 90.43M | 83.35M | 30.45M | 12.31M |
| 2021 | 11.21M | 92.90M | 87.19M | 33.68M | 11.42M |
| 2022 | 13.75M | 88.16M | 87.45M | 33.28M | 10.86M |
| 2023 | 10.23M | 94.64M | 83.60M | 36.70M | 11.20M |
| 2024 | 11.18M | 90.91M | 87.26M | 33.53M | 10.68M |
| 2025 | 9.28M | 98.79M | 81.22M | 33.15M | 9.99M |
| 2026 | 9.85M | 95.34M | 85.36M | 31.52M | 9.39M |
Cotton competes directly with corn and soybeans for acres in the Southern Delta (MS, AR, TN, MO) and with grain sorghum in the Southern Plains (TX). When corn or soybean economics improve relative to cotton at planting time, cotton acreage tends to fall.
Long-run planted acres trend. Source: USDA NASS QuickStats.
| Year | Cotton | Corn | Soybeans | Winter Wheat | Spring Wheat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 14.65M | 79.23M | 64.19M | 51.45M | 20.03M |
| 1997 | 13.90M | 79.54M | 70.00M | 47.98M | 19.12M |
| 1998 | 13.39M | 80.17M | 72.03M | 46.45M | 15.57M |
| 1999 | 14.87M | 77.39M | 73.73M | 43.28M | 15.35M |
| 2000 | 15.52M | 79.55M | 74.27M | 43.31M | 15.30M |
| 2001 | 15.77M | 75.70M | 74.08M | 40.94M | 15.58M |
| 2002 | 13.96M | 78.89M | 73.96M | 41.77M | 15.64M |
| 2003 | 13.48M | 78.60M | 73.40M | 45.38M | 13.84M |
| 2004 | 13.66M | 80.93M | 75.21M | 43.32M | 13.76M |
| 2005 | 14.25M | 81.78M | 72.03M | 40.42M | 14.04M |
| 2006 | 15.27M | 78.33M | 75.52M | 40.56M | 14.90M |
| 2007 | 10.83M | 93.53M | 64.74M | 45.01M | 13.29M |
| 2008 | 9.47M | 85.98M | 75.72M | 46.78M | 14.12M |
| 2009 | 9.15M | 86.38M | 77.45M | 43.29M | 13.22M |
| 2010 | 10.97M | 88.19M | 77.40M | 36.58M | 13.54M |
| 2011 | 14.74M | 91.94M | 75.05M | 40.60M | 12.34M |
| 2012 | 12.26M | 97.29M | 77.20M | 40.90M | 12.26M |
| 2013 | 10.41M | 95.36M | 76.82M | 43.23M | 11.61M |
| 2014 | 11.15M | 90.60M | 83.30M | 42.41M | 13.03M |
| 2015 | 8.58M | 88.02M | 82.66M | 39.68M | 13.37M |
| 2016 | 10.07M | 94.00M | 83.45M | 36.15M | 11.55M |
| 2017 | 12.72M | 90.17M | 90.16M | 32.73M | 11.02M |
| 2018 | 14.08M | 88.82M | 89.17M | 32.54M | 13.20M |
| 2019 | 13.72M | 89.37M | 76.10M | 31.47M | 12.67M |
| 2020 | 12.09M | 90.43M | 83.35M | 30.45M | 12.31M |
| 2021 | 11.21M | 92.90M | 87.19M | 33.68M | 11.42M |
| 2022 | 13.75M | 88.16M | 87.45M | 33.28M | 10.86M |
| 2023 | 10.23M | 94.64M | 83.60M | 36.70M | 11.20M |
| 2024 | 11.18M | 90.91M | 87.26M | 33.53M | 10.68M |
| 2025 | 9.28M | 98.79M | 81.22M | 33.15M | 9.99M |
| 2026 | 9.85M | 95.34M | 85.36M | 31.52M | 9.39M |