Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica

At a Glance

All readings as of most recent available data

MM Net Position

+22,350 cts

Managed money long minus short · 58th pct since 2006

58th pct

MM Gross Long

38,641 cts

Gross long · 60th pct

60th pct

MM Gross Short

16,291 cts

Gross short · 42th pct

42th pct

Commercial Net

-26,069 cts

Producers & merchants net · 45th pct

45th pct

Open Interest

200,891 cts

Total futures open interest

21th pct

Brazil Arabica

-0.52

CWSI Dev — Aug Dkd 3

Below Normal — Good Conditions

Colombia

+0.43

CWSI Dev — Aug Dkd 3

Near Normal

Ethiopia

+4.06

CWSI Dev — Aug Dkd 3

Well Above Normal — High Stress

Central America

+1.34

CWSI Dev — Aug Dkd 3

Above Normal — Mild Stress

Supply & Demand

USDA PSD world balance sheet · CONAB Brazil · BRL/USD

World Stocks-to-Use

14.6%

Historically tight · 2026 · 6th pct

Brazil Production

71,900

1,000 × 60kg bags · 2026 USDA est.

Brazil Total (CONAB)

66.7M bags

2026 2nd Survey · +9.7M YoY

Arabica / Conilon Split

45.8M / 20.9M

Conilon 31.4% of Brazil total · 2026 2nd Survey

BRL / USD

5.2168

Strong real (↓ BRL/USD) = sellers hold back · 1yr: 4.90–5.58

World ending stocks ÷ world domestic consumption. 20-year window. Lower = tighter supply, price supportive. Gold dashed line = 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution.

World coffee stocks-to-use ratio by market year

Market Year	Stocks-to-Use (%)
06/07	28.7%
07/08	24.4%
08/09	31.5%
09/10	20.7%
10/11	21.1%
11/12	18.0%
12/13	24.7%
13/14	28.6%
14/15	29.3%
15/16	22.8%
16/17	23.5%
17/18	19.9%
18/19	22.3%
19/20	22.1%
20/21	23.1%
21/22	19.0%
22/23	16.0%
23/24	14.1%
24/25	12.8%
25/26	14.0%
26/27	14.6%

World stocks-to-use from USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution (PSD). CONAB figures show latest Brazil survey estimate. BRL/USD from FRED. A weaker Brazilian real (higher BRL/USD) increases seller willingness in Brazil — the world's largest coffee producer — and tends to pressure KC and RC futures prices.

Market Positioning

CFTC Disaggregated COT — ICE KC Arabica Coffee (code 083731)

Managed money is moderately long (58th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 22,350 contracts. Week-over-week change: -4,343 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are moderately short (45th percentile).

KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.

KC Arabica managed money net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	33.7	57.9	41.1
Jan	34.5	60.5	42.1
Jan	32.5	62.9	42.7
Jan	35.2	65.6	46.1
Feb	23.9	65.7	48.6
Feb	16.8	60.2	48.2
Feb	14.7	59.6	50.5
Feb	12.9	57.9	45.8
Mar	12.4	54.9	42.7
Mar	14.8	52.4	43.4
Mar	18.6	51.4	47.1
Mar	23.9	53.7	42.4
Mar	25.5	49.3	47.9
Apr	22.7	37.4	57.3
Apr	26.3	33.1	66.9
Apr	23.8	34.9	71.8
Apr	29.4	41.6	68.2
May	31.0	41.7	68.3
May	25.0	40.7	59.0
May	17.9	38.4	52.6
May	17.4	36.0	52.6
Jun	12.2	30.7	56.6
Jun	3.1	32.6	62.0
Jun	8.0	28.1	61.6
Jun	14.0	23.4	60.6
Jun	21.2	20.7	64.1
Jul	25.5	20.1	61.0
Jul	25.0	21.8	66.8
Jul	24.9	22.8	62.9
Jul	25.1	21.4	58.7
Aug	23.6	21.5	54.5
Aug	24.2	22.5	51.1
Aug	26.7	24.2	52.0
Aug	26.7	28.3	57.5
Sep	22.4	32.5	59.0

Commercial net position (producers, merchants & swap dealers combined) by week of year. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

KC Arabica commercial net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	-37.1	-66.6	-47.4
Jan	-38.6	-73.2	-49.2
Jan	-34.5	-75.7	-52.1
Jan	-36.9	-77.9	-55.1
Feb	-21.8	-75.4	-57.4
Feb	-15.1	-68.3	-56.0
Feb	-12.1	-66.2	-59.2
Feb	-11.9	-64.1	-54.1
Mar	-11.4	-62.9	-50.5
Mar	-15.2	-60.6	-53.1
Mar	-17.9	-58.9	-56.6
Mar	-24.3	-61.3	-49.8
Mar	-25.3	-55.9	-54.9
Apr	-21.2	-43.1	-67.1
Apr	-22.8	-41.3	-76.2
Apr	-18.7	-42.2	-79.6
Apr	-24.7	-50.2	-77.1
May	-27.7	-49.9	-75.1
May	-19.7	-47.2	-67.4
May	-13.9	-44.9	-62.3
May	-14.8	-42.0	-63.9
Jun	-10.3	-36.6	-67.8
Jun	-1.0	-39.3	-71.4
Jun	-3.8	-34.8	-69.2
Jun	-10.5	-29.2	-68.1
Jun	-18.7	-27.4	-73.0
Jul	-26.1	-26.1	-70.0
Jul	-28.0	-27.9	-76.9
Jul	-27.8	-28.2	-73.7
Jul	-29.1	-26.2	-68.3
Aug	-27.9	-26.2	-64.3
Aug	-29.4	-28.9	-61.3
Aug	-33.0	-32.8	-61.8
Aug	-33.9	-36.2	-67.7
Sep	-26.1	-39.9	-70.7

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

KC Arabica managed money gross long by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	45.2	62.5	60.0
Jan	46.4	64.1	58.7
Jan	45.4	66.7	58.2
Jan	47.1	69.5	60.4
Feb	39.2	69.8	65.1
Feb	35.9	64.6	65.1
Feb	36.4	63.8	67.3
Feb	35.9	62.6	63.8
Mar	35.1	59.9	60.0
Mar	35.8	56.7	60.2
Mar	37.3	55.7	62.6
Mar	38.5	57.7	58.8
Mar	38.2	54.3	62.7
Apr	37.4	43.8	72.4
Apr	40.7	38.2	79.1
Apr	41.4	39.8	81.9
Apr	43.9	47.3	77.8
May	46.3	47.3	78.7
May	45.0	46.0	68.8
May	42.5	43.7	62.1
May	41.3	41.9	62.1
Jun	39.6	37.3	65.8
Jun	35.9	38.5	70.0
Jun	35.5	35.3	70.2
Jun	38.9	33.7	68.2
Jun	40.4	33.1	71.1
Jul	40.1	34.0	69.6
Jul	38.4	35.2	73.7
Jul	37.9	36.2	71.1
Jul	37.3	34.7	69.3
Aug	36.3	34.5	64.8
Aug	36.8	32.9	59.4
Aug	39.4	34.1	60.7
Aug	39.9	39.4	66.5
Sep	38.6	41.9	68.7

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

KC Arabica managed money gross short by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	11.5	4.6	18.9
Jan	11.9	3.6	16.5
Jan	12.9	3.8	15.4
Jan	12.0	3.9	14.3
Feb	15.4	4.0	16.5
Feb	19.1	4.4	16.9
Feb	21.7	4.2	16.7
Feb	23.0	4.7	18.0
Mar	22.8	5.0	17.4
Mar	20.9	4.3	16.8
Mar	18.7	4.3	15.6
Mar	14.5	4.0	16.4
Mar	12.7	5.0	14.8
Apr	14.7	6.4	15.1
Apr	14.3	5.0	12.3
Apr	17.6	4.9	10.0
Apr	14.4	5.7	9.6
May	15.3	5.5	10.4
May	19.9	5.4	9.7
May	24.6	5.3	9.5
May	23.8	5.9	9.6
Jun	27.4	6.6	9.2
Jun	32.8	5.9	8.0
Jun	27.6	7.2	8.6
Jun	24.9	10.4	7.5
Jun	19.2	12.5	7.0
Jul	14.5	13.9	8.6
Jul	13.5	13.4	6.9
Jul	13.0	13.4	8.2
Jul	12.2	13.3	10.6
Aug	12.7	13.1	10.4
Aug	12.6	10.4	8.4
Aug	12.7	9.9	8.7
Aug	13.2	11.1	9.1
Sep	16.3	9.4	9.6

Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.

KC Arabica open interest by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	203.5	251.3	273.8
Jan	201.5	239.2	269.5
Jan	202.4	241.8	264.3
Jan	207.0	259.9	268.7
Feb	226.5	267.9	273.3
Feb	226.1	273.5	280.7
Feb	192.4	217.8	252.2
Feb	202.2	215.8	236.0
Mar	208.6	218.9	239.5
Mar	206.2	222.4	247.5
Mar	210.7	219.2	244.4
Mar	217.8	224.5	248.7
Mar	217.6	224.9	267.0
Apr	219.4	225.1	282.6
Apr	199.4	181.5	295.6
Apr	196.8	177.9	287.0
Apr	205.9	196.9	290.6
May	213.1	193.7	289.5
May	220.0	189.2	288.1
May	234.8	185.8	277.6
May	235.4	190.4	276.2
Jun	253.2	199.1	291.0
Jun	272.5	198.9	309.8
Jun	233.2	174.2	305.1
Jun	230.6	183.8	241.3
Jun	235.0	192.3	249.7
Jul	242.3	198.5	251.3
Jul	228.3	193.4	273.5
Jul	220.7	197.0	276.9
Jul	225.3	200.4	286.2
Aug	227.1	207.6	297.0
Aug	234.1	176.2	289.4
Aug	202.3	188.0	230.0
Aug	203.8	206.8	233.8
Sep	200.9	218.8	237.4

Crop Conditions Overview

CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average across all arabica regions

Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year. Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) · Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk). Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year. Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.

Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar).

Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.

Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.

Brazil Arabica — Seasonal Detail

Minas Gerais / São Paulo · Primary arabica production zone

Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.52) · Colombia: Near Normal (+0.43) · Ethiopia: Well Above Normal — High Stress (+4.06) · Central America: Above Normal — Mild Stress (+1.34). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.

CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal.

Brazil Arabica CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-0.330	-5.000	-5.000
Jan-2	2.170	-1.790	5.000
Jan-3	-2.680	1.140	-3.890
Feb-1	-2.610	1.530	0.060
Feb-2	0.620	1.960	-1.440
Feb-3	-3.440	2.350	-0.710
Mar-1	0.330	5.000	0.510
Mar-2	-1.550	3.400	2.480
Mar-3	0.370	0.780	-1.070
Apr-1	-0.160	0.990	0.160
Apr-2	0.340	-0.690	0.260
Apr-3	0.340	-0.480	0.500
May-1	0.270	0.220	0.490
May-2	0.020	0.380	0.590
May-3	0.020	0.250	0.360
Jun-1	0.170	0.060	0.340
Jun-2	-0.340	0.220	0.380
Jun-3	-0.170	0.140	0.280
Jul-1	-0.030	0.090	0.140
Jul-2	0.160	0.150	0.280
Jul-3	0.040	0.180	0.230
Aug-1	0.120	0.220	0.110
Aug-2	0.100	0.150	0.240
Aug-3	-0.520	0.200	0.240

Soil moisture fraction. Values below the gray envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.

Brazil Arabica SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.360	0.420	0.330
Jan-2	0.360	0.430	0.360
Jan-3	0.390	0.410	0.370
Feb-1	0.410	0.410	0.390
Feb-2	0.410	0.390	0.390
Feb-3	0.410	0.360	0.420
Mar-1	0.430	0.340	0.400
Mar-2	0.430	0.330	0.390
Mar-3	0.430	0.320	0.390
Apr-1	0.410	0.320	0.390
Apr-2	0.400	0.320	0.380
Apr-3	0.380	0.330	0.360
May-1	0.360	0.330	0.340
May-2	0.340	0.330	0.330
May-3	0.340	0.320	0.320
Jun-1	0.330	0.310	0.310
Jun-2	0.320	0.310	0.300
Jun-3	0.320	0.300	0.300
Jul-1	0.320	0.300	0.290
Jul-2	0.310	0.290	0.290
Jul-3	0.300	0.290	0.280
Aug-1	0.300	0.280	0.280
Aug-2	0.290	0.280	0.270
Aug-3	0.290	0.270	0.270

10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the gray historical envelope.

Brazil Arabica RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	78.000	99.700	100.700
Jan-2	56.500	76.100	38.100
Jan-3	99.200	56.700	110.500
Feb-1	98.400	34.300	54.700
Feb-2	33.200	9.900	81.200
Feb-3	104.100	7.500	58.400
Mar-1	44.300	5.200	47.600
Mar-2	70.700	33.400	21.600
Mar-3	37.000	43.600	71.300
Apr-1	35.000	24.200	26.800
Apr-2	5.700	48.700	11.600
Apr-3	3.200	32.000	1.900
May-1	4.700	3.900	2.000
May-2	12.700	4.800	1.500
May-3	7.300	5.800	7.400
Jun-1	2.900	9.100	2.600
Jun-2	17.700	2.100	0.800
Jun-3	11.800	5.600	1.600
Jul-1	1.500	2.600	5.000
Jul-2	2.300	1.600	0.900
Jul-3	6.100	2.400	2.100
Aug-1	3.000	1.300	8.100
Aug-2	3.300	1.500	0.700
Aug-3	1.700	4.900	4.600

Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the gray envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.

Brazil Arabica TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	23.900	23.400	23.800
Jan-2	23.700	23.400	25.400
Jan-3	22.700	24.800	23.700
Feb-1	23.700	24.000	23.900
Feb-2	24.100	25.300	23.900
Feb-3	22.800	25.300	24.400
Mar-1	23.200	25.000	24.900
Mar-2	23.400	25.600	25.800
Mar-3	22.900	24.100	23.600
Apr-1	23.200	23.600	23.800
Apr-2	22.400	23.100	23.500
Apr-3	23.100	22.600	23.800
May-1	22.800	21.500	23.700
May-2	21.900	20.700	23.500
May-3	21.100	20.700	21.400
Jun-1	19.300	21.200	20.700
Jun-2	20.100	18.700	20.600
Jun-3	19.900	20.200	21.400
Jul-1	20.100	18.300	20.700
Jul-2	19.500	18.900	20.300
Jul-3	21.500	20.300	20.500
Aug-1	22.400	20.100	21.300
Aug-2	23.000	20.400	21.300
Aug-3	22.800	22.300	22.100

Running count of dekads year-to-date where average temperature exceeded the climatological normal. An accelerating slope relative to prior years indicates persistent above-normal heat accumulation — a risk to flowering induction and dry-season recovery.

Brazil Arabica warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	1.000	0.000	1.000
Jan-2	1.000	0.000	2.000
Jan-3	1.000	1.000	2.000
Feb-1	1.000	2.000	2.000
Feb-2	2.000	3.000	2.000
Feb-3	2.000	4.000	3.000
Mar-1	2.000	5.000	4.000
Mar-2	2.000	6.000	5.000
Mar-3	2.000	7.000	6.000
Apr-1	3.000	8.000	7.000
Apr-2	3.000	9.000	8.000
Apr-3	4.000	10.000	9.000
May-1	5.000	11.000	10.000
May-2	6.000	11.000	11.000
May-3	7.000	12.000	12.000
Jun-1	7.000	13.000	13.000
Jun-2	8.000	13.000	14.000
Jun-3	9.000	14.000	15.000
Jul-1	10.000	14.000	16.000
Jul-2	10.000	14.000	17.000
Jul-3	11.000	15.000	18.000
Aug-1	12.000	15.000	19.000
Aug-2	13.000	15.000	20.000
Aug-3	14.000	16.000	21.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Integrates both frequency and magnitude of above-normal heat. Elevated readings during Brazil's dry winter months signal risk of degraded flower-bud induction and reduced phenological recovery before the spring flush.

Brazil Arabica integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.200	0.000	0.100
Jan-2	0.200	0.000	1.800
Jan-3	0.200	1.000	1.800
Feb-1	0.200	1.100	1.800
Feb-2	0.400	2.500	1.800
Feb-3	0.400	3.800	2.200
Mar-1	0.400	5.200	3.500
Mar-2	0.400	7.300	5.800
Mar-3	0.400	8.300	6.300
Apr-1	0.600	8.900	7.100
Apr-2	0.600	9.400	8.000
Apr-3	1.500	9.800	9.600
May-1	2.900	9.900	11.900
May-2	3.900	9.900	14.500
May-3	4.600	10.200	15.500
Jun-1	4.600	11.300	16.100
Jun-2	4.900	11.300	16.900
Jun-3	5.200	11.900	18.700
Jul-1	5.700	11.900	19.800
Jul-2	5.700	11.900	20.500
Jul-3	7.400	12.400	21.200
Aug-1	9.400	12.400	22.100
Aug-2	11.800	12.400	22.800
Aug-3	13.000	13.100	23.300

Colombia — Seasonal Detail

Andean growing region · Bimodal rainfall · Year-round harvest

Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk.

Colombia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-2.200	-1.450	1.570
Jan-2	-1.540	1.090	1.090
Jan-3	-1.210	-0.210	1.440
Feb-1	-1.000	-0.600	-1.140
Feb-2	-1.200	-0.940	0.490
Feb-3	-0.190	-2.480	2.960
Mar-1	1.610	-1.370	4.760
Mar-2	5.000	-5.000	3.940
Mar-3	2.850	1.240	5.000
Apr-1	0.920	-1.290	1.050
Apr-2	0.560	1.030	1.850
Apr-3	0.690	-0.340	-0.760
May-1	0.550	0.170	-0.620
May-2	0.300	-0.010	0.220
May-3	-0.060	-0.220	-0.230
Jun-1	-0.390	-0.770	0.060
Jun-2	0.340	-0.130	-0.030
Jun-3	0.860	-0.340	0.120
Jul-1	0.420	-0.320	0.130
Jul-2	0.300	0.000	0.650
Jul-3	1.070	0.320	0.790
Aug-1	1.710	-0.460	-0.680
Aug-2	0.780	0.200	3.100
Aug-3	0.430	-0.070	2.220

Colombia SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.420	0.440	0.410
Jan-2	0.440	0.420	0.400
Jan-3	0.430	0.400	0.380
Feb-1	0.440	0.400	0.380
Feb-2	0.430	0.410	0.390
Feb-3	0.440	0.420	0.380
Mar-1	0.430	0.430	0.370
Mar-2	0.420	0.440	0.380
Mar-3	0.420	0.440	0.380
Apr-1	0.430	0.450	0.400
Apr-2	0.450	0.450	0.400
Apr-3	0.450	0.460	0.430
May-1	0.460	0.470	0.460
May-2	0.450	0.460	0.460
May-3	0.450	0.460	0.460
Jun-1	0.460	0.460	0.460
Jun-2	0.450	0.460	0.460
Jun-3	0.450	0.460	0.460
Jul-1	0.440	0.450	0.460
Jul-2	0.440	0.450	0.450
Jul-3	0.440	0.440	0.430
Aug-1	0.430	0.440	0.430
Aug-2	0.420	0.450	0.430
Aug-3	0.430	0.440	0.420

Colombia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	116.900	101.900	34.900
Jan-2	97.100	41.600	46.300
Jan-3	107.100	73.200	32.000
Feb-1	94.600	86.600	94.100
Feb-2	97.000	104.700	50.800
Feb-3	59.900	104.900	34.400
Mar-1	72.600	93.000	52.500
Mar-2	58.600	126.300	87.800
Mar-3	90.400	108.000	75.300
Apr-1	90.500	155.100	105.800
Apr-2	112.100	99.000	85.900
Apr-3	105.400	162.100	184.000
May-1	117.100	132.700	187.900
May-2	123.000	141.400	143.300
May-3	157.100	174.600	175.300
Jun-1	149.100	171.300	135.600
Jun-2	126.800	140.200	142.000
Jun-3	96.200	154.400	133.100
Jul-1	106.400	137.900	124.100
Jul-2	117.700	123.900	105.300
Jul-3	101.100	121.600	108.300
Aug-1	88.800	110.600	119.300
Aug-2	102.200	108.600	64.200
Aug-3	56.000	126.500	100.000

Colombia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	20.700	20.900	22.200
Jan-2	20.600	21.500	22.700
Jan-3	21.100	21.400	23.400
Feb-1	21.100	21.700	22.000
Feb-2	20.900	21.500	23.000
Feb-3	21.500	21.300	23.000
Mar-1	22.200	21.400	23.100
Mar-2	21.800	21.200	23.300
Mar-3	21.800	21.800	22.900
Apr-1	21.500	21.100	22.300
Apr-2	21.500	22.000	23.200
Apr-3	21.300	21.100	21.600
May-1	21.700	20.900	21.800
May-2	21.500	21.000	22.100
May-3	21.300	21.200	21.600
Jun-1	21.000	20.500	21.500
Jun-2	21.300	20.600	21.300
Jun-3	21.500	20.700	21.100
Jul-1	21.400	20.100	21.100
Jul-2	21.500	20.500	21.200
Jul-3	21.600	21.100	21.300
Aug-1	21.800	20.700	21.200
Aug-2	21.900	20.800	21.700
Aug-3	21.800	21.000	21.800

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Colombia's Andean belt is warming ~0.3°C per decade — heat accumulation trending above historical ranges compresses the viable altitude band for arabica cultivation.

Colombia warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	1.000
Jan-2	0.000	1.000	2.000
Jan-3	0.000	1.000	3.000
Feb-1	0.000	1.000	4.000
Feb-2	0.000	1.000	5.000
Feb-3	0.000	1.000	6.000
Mar-1	1.000	1.000	7.000
Mar-2	2.000	1.000	8.000
Mar-3	3.000	2.000	9.000
Apr-1	4.000	2.000	10.000
Apr-2	5.000	3.000	11.000
Apr-3	6.000	4.000	12.000
May-1	7.000	4.000	13.000
May-2	8.000	4.000	14.000
May-3	9.000	5.000	15.000
Jun-1	10.000	5.000	16.000
Jun-2	11.000	5.000	17.000
Jun-3	12.000	6.000	18.000
Jul-1	13.000	6.000	19.000
Jul-2	14.000	7.000	20.000
Jul-3	15.000	8.000	21.000
Aug-1	16.000	8.000	22.000
Aug-2	17.000	9.000	23.000
Aug-3	18.000	10.000	24.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Elevated readings in either bimodal flowering window (Apr–Jun, Oct–Dec) raise risk of pollen failure and reduced cherry set.

Colombia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	1.100
Jan-2	0.000	0.300	2.600
Jan-3	0.000	0.300	4.400
Feb-1	0.000	0.300	4.700
Feb-2	0.000	0.300	5.900
Feb-3	0.000	0.300	7.200
Mar-1	0.600	0.300	8.700
Mar-2	0.800	0.300	10.400
Mar-3	1.200	0.700	11.900
Apr-1	1.400	0.700	12.900
Apr-2	1.800	1.600	15.000
Apr-3	2.100	1.700	15.600
May-1	2.800	1.700	16.400
May-2	3.300	1.700	17.500
May-3	3.800	2.100	18.300
Jun-1	4.100	2.100	19.100
Jun-2	4.800	2.100	19.800
Jun-3	5.800	2.300	20.400
Jul-1	6.800	2.300	21.100
Jul-2	7.900	2.400	21.900
Jul-3	9.000	3.000	22.700
Aug-1	10.100	3.000	23.200
Aug-2	11.300	3.100	24.200
Aug-3	12.200	3.200	25.100

Ethiopia — Seasonal Detail

Jimma / Sidama / Yirgacheffe · Africa's largest arabica producer

Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the gray envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window.

Ethiopia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	0.220	0.190	-0.030
Jan-2	0.310	0.280	0.010
Jan-3	0.230	0.150	-0.130
Feb-1	0.030	0.160	-0.180
Feb-2	0.120	0.300	-0.160
Feb-3	-0.010	0.350	0.200
Mar-1	-0.420	0.120	-0.130
Mar-2	-0.350	-0.150	0.500
Mar-3	-1.350	-0.490	-0.070
Apr-1	-0.410	0.830	-0.880
Apr-2	0.450	-0.970	0.780
Apr-3	-0.330	5.000	-2.620
May-1	5.000	1.000	1.620
May-2	2.430	5.000	4.930
May-3	1.860	2.270	4.090
Jun-1	5.000	5.000	2.800
Jun-2	5.000	3.690	5.000
Jul-1	5.000	-2.880	5.000
Jul-2	5.000	-1.790	-3.210
Jul-3	2.760	2.080	-2.320
Aug-1	2.710	-0.250	-2.430
Aug-2	4.670	-1.610	-3.170
Aug-3	4.060	-1.650	-2.820

Ethiopia SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.310	0.320	0.340
Jan-2	0.300	0.310	0.330
Jan-3	0.300	0.300	0.320
Feb-1	0.290	0.300	0.310
Feb-2	0.290	0.290	0.310
Feb-3	0.280	0.290	0.300
Mar-1	0.290	0.280	0.300
Mar-2	0.290	0.280	0.300
Mar-3	0.320	0.300	0.300
Apr-1	0.350	0.310	0.310
Apr-2	0.350	0.320	0.330
Apr-3	0.360	0.330	0.340
May-1	0.370	0.350	0.360
May-2	0.370	0.350	0.360
May-3	0.370	0.360	0.370
Jun-1	0.380	0.360	0.370
Jun-2	0.370	0.370	0.370
Jun-3	0.360	0.370	0.380
Jul-1	0.360	0.380	0.380
Jul-2	0.370	0.390	0.390
Jul-3	0.370	0.400	0.410
Aug-1	0.380	0.400	0.420
Aug-2	0.380	0.400	0.420
Aug-3	0.380	0.410	0.420

Ethiopia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	0.700	0.500	2.100
Jan-2	0.900	0.900	5.600
Jan-3	2.200	2.700	12.500
Feb-1	6.600	1.000	14.700
Feb-2	3.800	1.100	13.500
Feb-3	6.100	0.100	5.200
Mar-1	35.400	16.900	22.900
Mar-2	42.400	34.800	4.600
Mar-3	107.800	58.800	41.700
Apr-1	50.800	12.300	72.100
Apr-2	39.900	78.400	39.500
Apr-3	71.300	43.100	87.900
May-1	61.600	76.100	77.000
May-2	57.200	37.500	51.000
May-3	61.500	57.800	43.300
Jun-1	30.700	35.100	44.800
Jun-2	18.300	49.700	41.800
Jun-3	41.100	43.300	46.400
Jul-1	45.000	72.300	52.300
Jul-2	46.700	72.100	78.400
Jul-3	68.400	62.200	105.100
Aug-1	60.200	73.600	94.400
Aug-2	59.900	77.200	88.200
Aug-3	27.100	83.100	89.700

Ethiopia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	20.200	20.400	20.800
Jan-2	20.700	20.800	21.400
Jan-3	22.000	21.000	21.600
Feb-1	21.600	21.700	21.500
Feb-2	22.100	22.600	22.500
Feb-3	21.900	22.800	23.200
Mar-1	20.500	23.000	22.800
Mar-2	21.300	21.500	23.700
Mar-3	19.600	20.800	22.600
Apr-1	20.300	22.000	20.900
Apr-2	21.000	20.600	22.500
Apr-3	20.600	21.100	21.000
May-1	20.800	20.200	21.300
May-2	20.300	20.600	21.500
May-3	20.500	20.300	20.900
Jun-1	20.600	20.100	20.800
Jun-2	20.400	19.700	19.900
Jun-3	19.800	19.800	19.700
Jul-1	20.200	18.800	19.700
Jul-2	20.200	18.300	19.000
Jul-3	20.000	19.200	18.600
Aug-1	19.600	18.400	18.400
Aug-2	20.100	18.200	18.600
Aug-3	20.400	18.100	18.200

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Track accumulation through the Kiremt season (Jun–Oct) as the primary risk window.

Ethiopia warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	1.000	1.000	1.000
Jan-2	2.000	2.000	2.000
Jan-3	3.000	3.000	3.000
Feb-1	4.000	4.000	4.000
Feb-2	5.000	5.000	5.000
Feb-3	5.000	6.000	6.000
Mar-1	5.000	7.000	7.000
Mar-2	5.000	7.000	8.000
Mar-3	5.000	7.000	9.000
Apr-1	5.000	8.000	9.000
Apr-2	6.000	8.000	10.000
Apr-3	7.000	9.000	11.000
May-1	8.000	10.000	12.000
May-2	9.000	11.000	13.000
May-3	10.000	12.000	14.000
Jun-1	11.000	13.000	15.000
Jun-2	12.000	14.000	16.000
Jun-3	13.000	15.000	17.000
Jul-1	14.000	16.000	18.000
Jul-2	15.000	17.000	19.000
Jul-3	16.000	18.000	20.000
Aug-1	17.000	19.000	21.000
Aug-2	18.000	19.000	22.000
Aug-3	19.000	19.000	22.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Above-normal readings through the main growing season compound drought stress on yield formation.

Ethiopia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.100	0.300	0.700
Jan-2	0.500	0.800	1.800
Jan-3	1.800	1.100	2.700
Feb-1	2.200	1.600	3.000
Feb-2	2.800	2.700	4.000
Feb-3	2.800	3.600	5.300
Mar-1	2.800	4.700	6.200
Mar-2	2.800	4.700	8.200
Mar-3	2.800	4.700	9.400
Apr-1	2.800	5.500	9.400
Apr-2	3.000	5.500	11.100
Apr-3	3.300	6.300	11.800
May-1	4.100	6.500	13.100
May-2	4.500	7.200	14.700
May-3	5.400	7.900	16.000
Jun-1	6.700	8.700	17.500
Jun-2	8.200	9.500	18.500
Jun-3	9.400	10.700	19.600
Jul-1	11.300	11.200	21.000
Jul-2	13.300	11.300	21.800
Jul-3	15.200	12.400	22.300
Aug-1	16.700	12.700	22.600
Aug-2	18.400	12.700	22.800
Aug-3	20.300	12.700	22.800

Central America — Seasonal Detail

Guatemala / Honduras / Costa Rica / El Salvador · High-altitude washed arabica

Central America’s arabica harvest runs November–March. The May–October rainy season drives crop development — sustained moisture stress during this window is the primary supply risk. Guatemala’s western highlands and Honduras’s mountain regions dominate regional volume.

Central America CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	0.240	-0.670	0.250
Jan-2	-0.210	-0.080	0.130
Jan-3	-0.200	-0.460	0.030
Feb-1	0.200	-0.300	0.330
Feb-2	0.050	-0.390	0.170
Feb-3	-0.100	-0.300	0.480
Mar-1	-0.130	-0.080	0.270
Mar-2	-0.190	0.010	0.240
Mar-3	-0.310	-0.060	0.250
Apr-1	-0.370	-0.220	0.140
Apr-2	-0.100	-0.040	0.200
Apr-3	-0.030	-0.050	0.110
May-1	0.300	0.060	0.650
May-2	1.810	0.620	1.620
May-3	4.440	5.000	5.000
Jun-1	-5.000	-1.930	2.870
Jun-2	5.000	-5.000	-5.000
Jun-3	5.000	-5.000	-5.000
Jul-1	2.140	1.410	-3.120
Jul-2	0.360	2.050	-0.180
Jul-3	0.870	-0.420	-0.960
Aug-1	2.390	0.970	-0.490
Aug-2	2.000	2.000	0.160
Aug-3	1.340	1.000	1.320

Central America SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.360	0.380	0.350
Jan-2	0.340	0.370	0.340
Jan-3	0.340	0.360	0.320
Feb-1	0.330	0.350	0.320
Feb-2	0.320	0.340	0.300
Feb-3	0.310	0.330	0.290
Mar-1	0.300	0.320	0.280
Mar-2	0.290	0.300	0.270
Mar-3	0.290	0.290	0.260
Apr-1	0.290	0.280	0.250
Apr-2	0.280	0.280	0.250
Apr-3	0.280	0.280	0.250
May-1	0.270	0.270	0.240
May-2	0.260	0.270	0.240
May-3	0.260	0.270	0.240
Jun-1	0.290	0.280	0.260
Jun-2	0.340	0.330	0.340
Jun-3	0.340	0.380	0.410
Jul-1	0.340	0.390	0.420
Jul-2	0.360	0.380	0.420
Jul-3	0.350	0.370	0.410
Aug-1	0.340	0.370	0.410
Aug-2	0.340	0.370	0.410
Aug-3	0.340	0.360	0.400

Central America RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	10.000	48.000	10.100
Jan-2	30.000	15.300	13.900
Jan-3	27.300	41.900	23.000
Feb-1	15.600	24.600	7.000
Feb-2	9.900	24.400	13.800
Feb-3	17.700	14.400	6.700
Mar-1	16.900	7.600	5.200
Mar-2	22.700	10.800	7.100
Mar-3	31.500	13.900	11.600
Apr-1	28.900	30.200	17.100
Apr-2	15.900	19.100	13.200
Apr-3	18.900	21.400	24.800
May-1	18.300	31.800	16.500
May-2	13.400	37.900	30.800
May-3	73.200	35.900	48.500
Jun-1	120.600	108.100	101.700
Jun-2	52.600	137.800	226.600
Jun-3	54.100	121.800	140.100
Jul-1	62.400	52.100	124.500
Jul-2	71.400	37.300	67.200
Jul-3	56.200	82.700	93.200
Aug-1	35.600	49.100	76.300
Aug-2	56.600	47.200	65.100
Aug-3	24.300	77.700	67.100

Central America TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	21.400	21.800	22.700
Jan-2	21.500	22.400	23.500
Jan-3	21.700	22.100	23.000
Feb-1	19.500	22.700	22.100
Feb-2	22.400	23.000	23.700
Feb-3	22.400	23.200	22.600
Mar-1	23.400	24.000	25.000
Mar-2	23.500	24.400	25.600
Mar-3	22.600	24.300	26.200
Apr-1	23.900	24.600	26.000
Apr-2	24.200	23.800	25.700
Apr-3	25.100	24.500	25.900
May-1	26.400	25.700	27.100
May-2	26.300	25.500	27.400
May-3	25.600	25.900	26.900
Jun-1	24.600	24.400	25.500
Jun-2	24.800	23.600	23.900
Jun-3	24.400	23.400	23.900
Jul-1	24.800	23.800	23.800
Jul-2	24.000	24.300	24.200
Jul-3	24.400	23.900	24.000
Aug-1	24.900	24.100	24.100
Aug-2	24.800	24.300	24.200
Aug-3	25.000	24.200	24.300

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Persistent above-normal readings through the rainy season (May–Oct) compress the physiological recovery window before the Nov–Mar harvest.

Central America warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	1.000	1.000
Jan-2	0.000	2.000	2.000
Jan-3	0.000	3.000	3.000
Feb-1	0.000	4.000	4.000
Feb-2	1.000	5.000	5.000
Feb-3	1.000	6.000	5.000
Mar-1	2.000	7.000	6.000
Mar-2	3.000	8.000	7.000
Mar-3	3.000	9.000	8.000
Apr-1	3.000	9.000	9.000
Apr-2	3.000	9.000	10.000
Apr-3	4.000	9.000	11.000
May-1	5.000	10.000	12.000
May-2	6.000	11.000	13.000
May-3	7.000	12.000	14.000
Jun-1	8.000	13.000	15.000
Jun-2	9.000	13.000	16.000
Jun-3	10.000	13.000	17.000
Jul-1	11.000	14.000	18.000
Jul-2	12.000	15.000	19.000
Jul-3	13.000	16.000	20.000
Aug-1	14.000	17.000	21.000
Aug-2	15.000	18.000	22.000
Aug-3	16.000	19.000	23.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). El Salvador and Guatemala have among the highest rates of climate-attributable harmful heat days — elevated readings here are a forward indicator of quality and yield pressure.

Central America integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.200	1.100
Jan-2	0.000	1.100	3.100
Jan-3	0.000	1.500	4.400
Feb-1	0.000	2.200	4.500
Feb-2	0.100	2.900	5.900
Feb-3	0.100	3.200	5.900
Mar-1	0.500	4.200	7.900
Mar-2	0.600	5.200	10.100
Mar-3	0.600	5.600	12.400
Apr-1	0.600	5.600	13.800
Apr-2	0.600	5.600	14.900
Apr-3	0.700	5.600	15.800
May-1	2.200	6.400	18.000
May-2	4.000	7.400	20.900
May-3	5.600	9.300	23.800
Jun-1	6.300	9.800	25.400
Jun-2	7.500	9.800	25.700
Jun-3	8.400	9.800	26.100
Jul-1	9.800	10.200	26.500
Jul-2	10.400	11.100	27.300
Jul-3	11.200	11.400	27.700
Aug-1	12.400	11.800	28.100
Aug-2	13.600	12.500	28.700
Aug-3	15.000	13.100	29.400

ICE Certified Stocks

Deliverable arabica inventory backing the KC contract · ICE Coffee 'C' certified stock report

ICE Coffee 'C' certified stocks — the exchange-graded arabica inventory in licensed warehouses that can be delivered against the KC futures contract. A sustained drawdown means physical supply tightening relative to demand and is typically price-supportive; rebuilding stocks ease near-term scarcity. Values in thousand 60-kg bags. Source: ICE Coffee 'C' certified stock report.

Certified stocks data table

Date	Certified stocks (60-kg bags)
2024-10-31	852,058
2024-11-29	900,548
2024-12-31	979,967
2025-01-31	867,582
2025-02-28	805,588
2025-03-31	770,476
2025-04-30	813,668
2025-05-30	888,390
2025-06-30	841,173
2025-07-31	770,621
2025-08-29	710,196
2025-09-30	569,937
2025-10-31	431,728
2025-11-28	406,959
2025-12-31	453,155
2026-01-30	435,721
2026-02-27	477,229
2026-03-31	557,474
2026-04-30	499,283
2026-05-31	435,430
2026-06-30	377,465
2026-07-31	264,179
2026-08-31	223,976
2026-09-04	223,712

Brazilian Real / USD

Key FX driver of arabica prices · BRL per USD · higher = weaker real

BRL/USD (Brazilian reais per US dollar). A rising rate means a weaker real — Brazilian farmers receive more reais per bag exported, increasing their willingness to sell and adding supply pressure to KC prices. A falling rate (stronger real) tends to support prices as sellers hold back. Source: FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (DEXBZUS). Dotted line: KC nearby futures price (¢/lb).

What the Currency Is Actually Doing — Price Decomposition

Brazilian arabica in reais, split into board, currency and basis · CCCMG month-end T6 dura

T6 Dura (São Paulo)

R$ 1,744

per 60-kg bag · 2026-08 · -25.5% YoY

Board (KC)

R$ -290

arabica futures in USD · of the R$ -596 12-month move

Currency (BRL)

R$ -81

BRL per USD · of the R$ -596 12-month move

Basis / differential

R$ -225

origin, quality, freight, tax · of the R$ -596 12-month move

Each bar splits that month's change in the São Paulo T6 dura quote into the part the board delivered, the part the currency delivered, and the part the basis delivered. Bars sum exactly to the month's move in the white line.

Month-over-month attribution of the Brazilian arabica quote in reais

Month	T6 dura R$/sc	Board R$	Currency R$	Basis R$
2024-09	1,506	+125	-45	+2
2024-10	1,534	-144	+92	+80
2024-11	2,058	+479	+63	-18
2024-12	2,186	-4	+72	+61
2025-01	2,451	+378	-141	+28
2025-02	2,463	+8	+20	-15
2025-03	2,515	+5	-61	+109
2025-04	2,649	+220	-36	-50
2025-05	2,327	-470	+25	+122
2025-06	1,844	-228	-108	-147
2025-07	1,830	-67	+52	+1
2025-08	2,340	+610	-59	-42
2025-09	2,149	-128	-43	-20
2025-10	2,237	+98	+24	-34
2025-11	2,249	+117	-19	-86
2025-12	2,157	-374	+56	+225
2026-01	2,014	-101	-90	+48
2026-02	1,789	-294	-40	+109
2026-03	1,871	+86	+26	-31
2026-04	1,752	+15	-83	-52
2026-05	1,553	-204	+26	-21
2026-06	1,672	+254	+34	-169
2026-07	1,733	+111	-32	-18
2026-08	1,744	+61	+49	-99

How to read this. A bag of Brazilian arabica quoted in reais is the board in cents, converted at the day's rate, times a basis that carries the origin differential, cup and defect quality, freight and tax treatment. Those three multiply to the quote exactly, so a change in the quote can be split among them with nothing left over. Attribution is symmetric across the three factors, which is why the parts sum to the whole no matter which one you vary first.

What it is not. This is an accounting identity, not a causal model — it says how much each term moved, never which one moved the others, and a weaker real routinely widens the differential rather than acting independently of it. It is also not a farmgate price: CCCMG quotes T6 dura delivered to São Paulo, between companies, ex-tax and discounted by the NPR rate, so freight and delivery level sit inside the basis term. The series is month-end spot from May 2016 throughout — deliberately not the reference farm-price CSV, which splices monthly averages to month-end spot at January 2017 and would book that definition change as a price move.