This weekKC settled at 287.15¢/lb, the 88th percentile over 15 yrs, -27% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/lb |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 392.05 |
| 2025-11-07 | 407.80 |
| 2025-11-14 | 399.80 |
| 2025-11-21 | 400.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 413.00 |
| 2025-12-05 | 406.25 |
| 2025-12-12 | 397.20 |
| 2025-12-19 | 340.65 |
| 2025-12-26 | 350.25 |
| 2026-01-02 | 357.30 |
| 2026-01-09 | 357.65 |
| 2026-01-16 | 355.30 |
| 2026-01-23 | 350.90 |
| 2026-01-30 | 332.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 296.55 |
| 2026-02-13 | 300.05 |
| 2026-02-20 | 288.30 |
| 2026-02-27 | 284.60 |
| 2026-03-06 | 297.60 |
| 2026-03-13 | 290.35 |
| 2026-03-20 | 309.75 |
| 2026-03-27 | 301.70 |
| 2026-04-03 | 295.40 |
| 2026-04-10 | 300.10 |
| 2026-04-17 | 289.30 |
| 2026-04-24 | 309.80 |
| 2026-05-01 | 289.95 |
| 2026-05-08 | 289.70 |
| 2026-05-15 | 265.75 |
| 2026-05-22 | 264.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | 265.90 |
| 2026-06-05 | 246.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 257.20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 275.10 |
| 2026-06-26 | 286.75 |
| 2026-07-03 | 315.65 |
| 2026-07-10 | 343.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 328.45 |
| 2026-07-24 | 313.80 |
| 2026-07-31 | 332.10 |
| 2026-08-07 | 335.55 |
| 2026-08-14 | 338.10 |
| 2026-08-21 | 358.75 |
| 2026-08-28 | 345.85 |
| 2026-09-04 | 324.25 |
| 2026-09-11 | 313.65 |
| 2026-09-18 | 294.55 |
| 2026-09-25 | 278.60 |
| 2026-10-02 | 288.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | 286.95 |
| 2026-10-16 | 305.60 |
| 2026-10-23 | 307.45 |
| 2026-10-30 | 287.15 |
How to read it. The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly closes over 15 years. The chart below shows the same price by week of year, one line per year.
How to read it. The same price by week of year. Gold is this year, gray is last year, the faint lines are earlier years.
This weekFunds are net long 14,670 contracts, the 53rd percentile over 15 yrs, from +25,136 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 30th percentile over 15 yrs (normal). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 46,745 |
| 2025-11-04 | 46,742 |
| 2025-11-10 | 46,871 |
| 2025-11-18 | 40,556 |
| 2025-11-25 | 38,155 |
| 2025-12-02 | 37,571 |
| 2025-12-09 | 37,675 |
| 2025-12-16 | 34,020 |
| 2025-12-23 | 28,286 |
| 2025-12-30 | 29,006 |
| 2026-01-06 | 33,697 |
| 2026-01-13 | 34,545 |
| 2026-01-20 | 32,513 |
| 2026-01-27 | 35,175 |
| 2026-02-03 | 23,876 |
| 2026-02-10 | 16,824 |
| 2026-02-17 | 14,729 |
| 2026-02-24 | 12,876 |
| 2026-03-03 | 12,363 |
| 2026-03-10 | 14,820 |
| 2026-03-17 | 18,592 |
| 2026-03-24 | 23,932 |
| 2026-03-31 | 25,482 |
| 2026-04-07 | 22,658 |
| 2026-04-14 | 26,349 |
| 2026-04-21 | 23,833 |
| 2026-04-28 | 29,410 |
| 2026-05-05 | 31,035 |
| 2026-05-12 | 25,028 |
| 2026-05-19 | 17,908 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17,434 |
| 2026-06-02 | 12,195 |
| 2026-06-09 | 3,132 |
| 2026-06-16 | 7,974 |
| 2026-06-23 | 14,002 |
| 2026-06-30 | 21,223 |
| 2026-07-07 | 25,511 |
| 2026-07-14 | 24,967 |
| 2026-07-21 | 24,866 |
| 2026-07-28 | 25,136 |
| 2026-08-04 | 23,550 |
| 2026-08-11 | 24,170 |
| 2026-08-18 | 26,739 |
| 2026-08-25 | 26,693 |
| 2026-09-01 | 22,350 |
| 2026-09-08 | 18,080 |
| 2026-09-15 | 15,654 |
| 2026-09-22 | 11,098 |
| 2026-09-29 | 11,512 |
| 2026-10-06 | 13,929 |
| 2026-10-13 | 10,267 |
| 2026-10-20 | 16,347 |
| 2026-10-27 | 14,670 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
This weekICE certified arabica stocks: 225,068 bags, the 3rd-lowest month-end reading in 15 yrs. unusual low
| Date | 60-kg bags |
|---|---|
| 2022-06-30 | 886,141 |
| 2022-07-29 | 700,050 |
| 2022-08-31 | 672,585 |
| 2022-09-30 | 426,180 |
| 2022-10-31 | 384,795 |
| 2022-11-30 | 591,769 |
| 2022-12-31 | 814,686 |
| 2023-01-31 | 861,495 |
| 2023-02-28 | 787,345 |
| 2023-03-31 | 742,894 |
| 2023-04-28 | 680,163 |
| 2023-05-31 | 583,518 |
| 2023-06-30 | 544,915 |
| 2023-07-31 | 528,752 |
| 2023-08-31 | 484,738 |
| 2023-09-29 | 441,945 |
| 2023-10-31 | 389,138 |
| 2023-11-30 | 224,066 |
| 2023-12-29 | 251,224 |
| 2024-01-31 | 249,829 |
| 2024-02-29 | 353,606 |
| 2024-03-31 | 595,209 |
| 2024-04-30 | 659,758 |
| 2024-05-31 | 784,771 |
| 2024-06-28 | 807,394 |
| 2024-07-31 | 814,924 |
| 2024-08-30 | 847,873 |
| 2024-09-30 | 813,999 |
| 2024-10-31 | 852,058 |
| 2024-11-29 | 900,548 |
| 2024-12-31 | 979,967 |
| 2025-01-31 | 867,582 |
| 2025-02-28 | 805,588 |
| 2025-03-31 | 770,476 |
| 2025-04-30 | 813,668 |
| 2025-05-30 | 888,390 |
| 2025-06-30 | 841,173 |
| 2025-07-31 | 770,621 |
| 2025-08-29 | 710,196 |
| 2025-09-30 | 569,937 |
| 2025-10-31 | 431,728 |
| 2025-11-28 | 406,959 |
| 2025-12-31 | 453,155 |
| 2026-01-30 | 435,721 |
| 2026-02-27 | 477,229 |
| 2026-03-31 | 557,474 |
| 2026-04-30 | 499,283 |
| 2026-05-31 | 435,430 |
| 2026-06-30 | 377,465 |
| 2026-07-31 | 264,179 |
| 2026-08-31 | 223,976 |
| 2026-09-30 | 260,654 |
| 2026-10-29 | 225,068 |
How to read it. World ending stocks ÷ world consumption, by market year; the gold point is the latest projection, the dotted line the 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS PSD.
| Market Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|---|
| 06/07 | 28.7% |
| 07/08 | 24.4% |
| 08/09 | 31.5% |
| 09/10 | 20.7% |
| 10/11 | 21.1% |
| 11/12 | 18.0% |
| 12/13 | 24.7% |
| 13/14 | 28.6% |
| 14/15 | 29.3% |
| 15/16 | 22.8% |
| 16/17 | 23.5% |
| 17/18 | 19.9% |
| 18/19 | 22.3% |
| 19/20 | 22.1% |
| 20/21 | 23.1% |
| 21/22 | 19.0% |
| 22/23 | 16.0% |
| 23/24 | 14.1% |
| 24/25 | 12.8% |
| 25/26 | 14.0% |
| 26/27 | 14.6% |
How to read it. Certified stocks are graded arabica in ICE-licensed warehouses, deliverable against the KC contract (ICE certified stock report); the band is the middle 80% of month-ends over 15 years. World stocks-to-use is USDA FAS PSD; the Brazil crop is CONAB's latest survey.
How to read it. Reais per US dollar, weekly: up is a weaker real. KC is drawn below on its own scale for comparison; 2-year range 4.90–6.20. Source: FRED (DEXBZUS).
Each bar splits that month's change in the São Paulo T6 dura quote into the part the board delivered, the part the currency delivered, and the part the basis delivered. Bars sum exactly to the month's move in the white line.
| Month | T6 dura R$/sc | Board R$ | Currency R$ | Basis R$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 1,534 | -144 | +92 | +80 |
| 2024-11 | 2,058 | +479 | +63 | -18 |
| 2024-12 | 2,186 | -4 | +72 | +61 |
| 2025-01 | 2,451 | +378 | -141 | +28 |
| 2025-02 | 2,463 | +8 | +20 | -15 |
| 2025-03 | 2,515 | +5 | -61 | +109 |
| 2025-04 | 2,649 | +220 | -36 | -50 |
| 2025-05 | 2,327 | -470 | +25 | +122 |
| 2025-06 | 1,844 | -228 | -108 | -147 |
| 2025-07 | 1,830 | -67 | +52 | +1 |
| 2025-08 | 2,340 | +610 | -59 | -42 |
| 2025-09 | 2,149 | -128 | -43 | -20 |
| 2025-10 | 2,237 | +98 | +24 | -34 |
| 2025-11 | 2,249 | +117 | -19 | -86 |
| 2025-12 | 2,157 | -374 | +56 | +225 |
| 2026-01 | 2,014 | -101 | -90 | +48 |
| 2026-02 | 1,789 | -294 | -40 | +109 |
| 2026-03 | 1,871 | +86 | +26 | -31 |
| 2026-04 | 1,752 | +15 | -83 | -52 |
| 2026-05 | 1,553 | -204 | +26 | -21 |
| 2026-06 | 1,672 | +254 | +34 | -169 |
| 2026-07 | 1,733 | +111 | -32 | -18 |
| 2026-08 | 1,744 | +61 | +37 | -87 |
| 2026-09 | 1,597 | -281 | +0 | +134 |
How to read this. A bag of Brazilian arabica quoted in reais is the board in
cents, converted at the day's rate, times a basis that carries the origin differential, cup and
defect quality, freight and tax treatment. Those three multiply to the quote exactly, so a change
in the quote can be split among them with nothing left over. Attribution is symmetric across the
three factors, which is why the parts sum to the whole no matter which one you vary first.
What it is not. This is an accounting identity, not a causal model — it says how
much each term moved, never which one moved the others, and a weaker real routinely widens the
differential rather than acting independently of it. It is also not a farmgate price: CCCMG quotes
T6 dura delivered to São Paulo, between companies, ex-tax and discounted by the NPR rate, so
freight and delivery level sit inside the basis term. The series is month-end spot from May 2016
throughout — deliberately not the reference farm-price CSV, which splices monthly averages to
month-end spot at January 2017 and would book that definition change as a price move.
How to read it. The crop calendar decides whether a reading is news: rain matters at flowering, dryness helps at harvest. Stress z is the mean water-stress z-score of the last three dekads (positive = drier); inside ±0.5 is near normal. Origins outside a critical stage are context.