Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica — May 22, 2026
Data through: COT: 05/19/2026 · Weather: May Dkd 2
Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/arabica_coffee_report_8b023e3a.html
COT POSITIONING — KC ARABICA:
Managed Money +17,908 cts 54th pct neutral
Open Interest 234,834 cts 52th pct
CROP WATER STRESS — CWSI DEVIATION:
Brazil Arabica -0.65 Below Normal — Good Conditions
Colombia -0.71 Below Normal — Good Conditions
Ethiopia -1.48 Below Normal — Good Conditions
MM Net Position
+17,908 cts
Managed money long minus short · 54th pct since 2006
54th pct
Commercial Net
+6,618 cts
Producers & merchants net · 61th pct
61th pct
Open Interest
234,834 cts
Total futures open interest
52th pct
Brazil Arabica
-0.65
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 2
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Colombia
-0.71
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 2
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Ethiopia
-1.48
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 2
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Central America
-1.00
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 2
Below Normal — Good Conditions
World Stocks-to-Use
11.6%
Historically tight · 2025 · 2th pct
Brazil Production
63,000
1,000 × 60kg bags · 2025 USDA est.
Brazil Total (CONAB)
66.2M bags
2026 1st Survey · +9.7M YoY
Arabica / Conilon Split
44.1M / 22.1M
Conilon 33.4% of Brazil total · 2026 1st Survey
BRL / USD
4.8976
Strong real (↓ BRL/USD) = sellers hold back · 1yr: 4.90–5.74
World ending stocks ÷ world domestic consumption. 20-year window. Lower = tighter supply, price supportive. Gold dashed line = 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution.
World coffee stocks-to-use ratio by market year
| Market Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|
| 06/07 | 28.7% |
| 07/08 | 24.4% |
| 08/09 | 31.5% |
| 09/10 | 20.7% |
| 10/11 | 21.1% |
| 11/12 | 18.0% |
| 12/13 | 24.7% |
| 13/14 | 28.6% |
| 14/15 | 29.3% |
| 15/16 | 22.8% |
| 16/17 | 23.5% |
| 17/18 | 19.9% |
| 18/19 | 22.3% |
| 19/20 | 22.1% |
| 20/21 | 23.1% |
| 21/22 | 19.0% |
| 22/23 | 16.0% |
| 23/24 | 14.1% |
| 24/25 | 12.4% |
| 25/26 | 11.6% |
World stocks-to-use from USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution (PSD). CONAB figures show latest Brazil survey estimate. BRL/USD from FRED. A weaker Brazilian real (higher BRL/USD) increases seller willingness in Brazil — the world's largest coffee producer — and tends to pressure KC and RC futures prices.
Managed money is neutral (54th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 17,908 contracts. Week-over-week change: -7,121 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are neutral to long (61th percentile).
KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.
KC Arabica managed money net position by week
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|
| Jan | 33.7 | 57.9 | 41.1 |
| Jan | 34.5 | 60.5 | 42.1 |
| Jan | 32.5 | 62.9 | 42.7 |
| Jan | 35.2 | 65.6 | 46.1 |
| Feb | 23.9 | 65.7 | 48.6 |
| Feb | 16.8 | 60.2 | 48.2 |
| Feb | 14.7 | 59.6 | 50.5 |
| Feb | 12.9 | 57.9 | 45.8 |
| Mar | 12.4 | 54.9 | 42.7 |
| Mar | 14.8 | 52.4 | 43.4 |
| Mar | 18.6 | 51.4 | 47.1 |
| Mar | 23.9 | 53.7 | 42.4 |
| Mar | 25.5 | 49.3 | 47.9 |
| Apr | 22.7 | 37.4 | 57.3 |
| Apr | 26.3 | 33.1 | 66.9 |
| Apr | 23.8 | 34.9 | 71.8 |
| Apr | 29.4 | 41.6 | 68.2 |
| May | 31.0 | 41.7 | 68.3 |
| May | 25.0 | 40.7 | 59.0 |
| May | 17.9 | 38.4 | 52.6 |
Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.
KC Arabica open interest by week
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|
| Jan | 203.5 | 251.3 | 273.8 |
| Jan | 201.5 | 239.2 | 269.5 |
| Jan | 202.4 | 241.8 | 264.3 |
| Jan | 207.0 | 259.9 | 268.7 |
| Feb | 226.5 | 267.9 | 273.3 |
| Feb | 226.1 | 273.5 | 280.7 |
| Feb | 192.4 | 217.8 | 252.2 |
| Feb | 202.2 | 215.8 | 236.0 |
| Mar | 208.6 | 218.9 | 239.5 |
| Mar | 206.2 | 222.4 | 247.5 |
| Mar | 210.7 | 219.2 | 244.4 |
| Mar | 217.8 | 224.5 | 248.7 |
| Mar | 217.6 | 224.9 | 267.0 |
| Apr | 219.4 | 225.1 | 282.6 |
| Apr | 199.4 | 181.5 | 295.6 |
| Apr | 196.8 | 177.9 | 287.0 |
| Apr | 205.9 | 196.9 | 290.6 |
| May | 213.1 | 193.7 | 289.5 |
| May | 220.0 | 189.2 | 288.1 |
| May | 234.8 | 185.8 | 277.6 |
Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.
Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year.
Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) ·
Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk).
Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year.
Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.
Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar).
Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.
Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.
Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.65) · Colombia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.71) · Ethiopia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.48) · Central America: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.00). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.
CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal.
Brazil Arabica CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (dev) | 2025 (dev) | 2024 (dev) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | -0.040 | -4.080 | -5.000 |
| Jan-2 | 1.940 | -1.110 | 4.140 |
| Jan-3 | -1.850 | 1.190 | -3.040 |
| Feb-1 | -2.320 | 1.350 | 0.370 |
| Feb-2 | 0.450 | 1.540 | -1.210 |
| Feb-3 | -2.880 | 1.820 | -0.550 |
| Mar-1 | -1.050 | 3.830 | 0.550 |
| Mar-2 | -1.000 | 2.460 | 1.890 |
| Mar-3 | 0.110 | 0.460 | -0.890 |
| Apr-1 | 0.130 | 0.840 | 0.200 |
| Apr-2 | 0.190 | -0.550 | 0.230 |
| Apr-3 | 0.180 | -0.290 | 0.290 |
| May-1 | 0.200 | 0.150 | 0.360 |
| May-2 | -0.650 | 0.290 | 0.420 |
Soil moisture fraction. Values below the grey envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.
Brazil Arabica SM dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (fraction) | 2025 (fraction) | 2024 (fraction) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.360 | 0.420 | 0.330 |
| Jan-2 | 0.360 | 0.430 | 0.360 |
| Jan-3 | 0.390 | 0.410 | 0.370 |
| Feb-1 | 0.410 | 0.410 | 0.390 |
| Feb-2 | 0.410 | 0.390 | 0.390 |
| Feb-3 | 0.410 | 0.360 | 0.420 |
| Mar-1 | 0.420 | 0.340 | 0.400 |
| Mar-2 | 0.430 | 0.330 | 0.390 |
| Mar-3 | 0.430 | 0.330 | 0.390 |
| Apr-1 | 0.410 | 0.320 | 0.390 |
| Apr-2 | 0.400 | 0.320 | 0.380 |
| Apr-3 | 0.380 | 0.330 | 0.360 |
| May-1 | 0.360 | 0.330 | 0.340 |
| May-2 | 0.350 | 0.330 | 0.330 |
10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the grey historical envelope.
Brazil Arabica RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (mm) | 2025 (mm) | 2024 (mm) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 71.600 | 99.700 | 100.600 |
| Jan-2 | 45.500 | 69.700 | 24.500 |
| Jan-3 | 90.600 | 47.100 | 106.500 |
| Feb-1 | 98.500 | 27.100 | 42.600 |
| Feb-2 | 25.000 | 0.000 | 76.100 |
| Feb-3 | 104.100 | 0.000 | 50.600 |
| Mar-1 | 13.900 | 0.000 | 34.400 |
| Mar-2 | 31.100 | 20.100 | 5.300 |
| Mar-3 | 17.200 | 34.800 | 64.900 |
| Apr-1 | 11.300 | 11.900 | 12.300 |
| Apr-2 | 0.000 | 39.000 | 0.000 |
| Apr-3 | 0.000 | 17.100 | 0.000 |
| May-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| May-2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the grey envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.
Brazil Arabica TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (°C) | 2025 (°C) | 2024 (°C) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 23.900 | 23.400 | 23.800 |
| Jan-2 | 23.700 | 23.400 | 25.400 |
| Jan-3 | 22.600 | 24.800 | 23.600 |
| Feb-1 | 23.700 | 24.000 | 23.900 |
| Feb-2 | 24.100 | 25.300 | 23.900 |
| Feb-3 | 22.800 | 25.300 | 24.400 |
| Mar-1 | 23.500 | 25.000 | 24.900 |
| Mar-2 | 23.500 | 25.600 | 25.700 |
| Mar-3 | 22.700 | 24.100 | 23.600 |
| Apr-1 | 23.200 | 23.600 | 23.800 |
| Apr-2 | 22.400 | 23.100 | 23.500 |
| Apr-3 | 23.100 | 22.600 | 23.700 |
| May-1 | 22.700 | 21.500 | 23.700 |
| May-2 | 20.700 | 20.700 | 23.500 |
Running count of dekads year-to-date where average temperature exceeded the climatological normal. An accelerating slope relative to prior years indicates persistent above-normal heat accumulation — a risk to flowering induction and dry-season recovery.
Brazil Arabica warm-dekad count year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (dkd) | 2025 (dkd) | 2024 (dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| Jan-2 | 1.000 | 0.000 | 2.000 |
| Jan-3 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Feb-1 | 1.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Feb-2 | 2.000 | 3.000 | 2.000 |
| Feb-3 | 2.000 | 4.000 | 3.000 |
| Mar-1 | 2.000 | 5.000 | 4.000 |
| Mar-2 | 2.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 |
| Mar-3 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 |
| Apr-1 | 3.000 | 8.000 | 7.000 |
| Apr-2 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 |
| Apr-3 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 9.000 |
| May-1 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 10.000 |
| May-2 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 11.000 |
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Integrates both frequency and magnitude of above-normal heat. Elevated readings during Brazil's dry winter months signal risk of degraded flower-bud induction and reduced phenological recovery before the spring flush.
Brazil Arabica integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (°C·dkd) | 2025 (°C·dkd) | 2024 (°C·dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.300 | 0.000 | 0.200 |
| Jan-2 | 0.300 | 0.000 | 1.900 |
| Jan-3 | 0.300 | 1.000 | 1.900 |
| Feb-1 | 0.300 | 1.100 | 1.900 |
| Feb-2 | 0.500 | 2.500 | 1.900 |
| Feb-3 | 0.500 | 3.800 | 2.300 |
| Mar-1 | 0.500 | 5.200 | 3.600 |
| Mar-2 | 0.500 | 7.300 | 5.800 |
| Mar-3 | 0.500 | 8.300 | 6.300 |
| Apr-1 | 0.700 | 8.900 | 7.100 |
| Apr-2 | 0.700 | 9.400 | 8.000 |
| Apr-3 | 1.600 | 9.800 | 9.500 |
| May-1 | 2.900 | 9.900 | 11.800 |
| May-2 | 2.900 | 9.900 | 14.500 |
Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk.
Colombia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (dev) | 2025 (dev) | 2024 (dev) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | -5.000 | -2.620 | -0.670 |
| Jan-2 | -4.380 | -5.000 | -5.000 |
| Jan-3 | -5.000 | 5.000 | -5.000 |
| Feb-1 | -0.150 | 1.940 | -0.470 |
| Feb-2 | 1.380 | 1.480 | -0.380 |
| Feb-3 | -0.220 | 1.920 | 0.030 |
| Mar-1 | -0.910 | -0.720 | 0.090 |
| Mar-2 | -1.140 | 0.490 | 0.680 |
| Mar-3 | -0.060 | -0.380 | -1.630 |
| Apr-1 | -0.930 | 0.890 | -0.030 |
| Apr-2 | -0.590 | -0.830 | -0.070 |
| Apr-3 | -0.700 | 0.300 | 0.720 |
| May-1 | -0.420 | -0.170 | 0.610 |
| May-2 | -0.710 | 0.000 | -0.230 |
Colombia SM dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (fraction) | 2025 (fraction) | 2024 (fraction) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.420 | 0.440 | 0.410 |
| Jan-2 | 0.440 | 0.420 | 0.400 |
| Jan-3 | 0.430 | 0.400 | 0.380 |
| Feb-1 | 0.440 | 0.400 | 0.380 |
| Feb-2 | 0.430 | 0.410 | 0.390 |
| Feb-3 | 0.440 | 0.420 | 0.380 |
| Mar-1 | 0.430 | 0.430 | 0.370 |
| Mar-2 | 0.420 | 0.440 | 0.380 |
| Mar-3 | 0.420 | 0.440 | 0.380 |
| Apr-1 | 0.430 | 0.450 | 0.400 |
| Apr-2 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 0.400 |
| Apr-3 | 0.450 | 0.460 | 0.430 |
| May-1 | 0.460 | 0.470 | 0.460 |
| May-2 | 0.450 | 0.460 | 0.460 |
Colombia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (mm) | 2025 (mm) | 2024 (mm) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 116.900 | 98.100 | 18.100 |
| Jan-2 | 89.600 | 30.600 | 35.900 |
| Jan-3 | 103.900 | 67.200 | 11.500 |
| Feb-1 | 94.600 | 82.700 | 94.100 |
| Feb-2 | 93.500 | 104.700 | 38.000 |
| Feb-3 | 57.700 | 104.900 | 14.500 |
| Mar-1 | 21.800 | 93.000 | 43.000 |
| Mar-2 | 17.000 | 126.300 | 87.800 |
| Mar-3 | 83.700 | 108.000 | 68.800 |
| Apr-1 | 90.500 | 155.100 | 105.800 |
| Apr-2 | 112.100 | 99.000 | 81.700 |
| Apr-3 | 105.400 | 162.100 | 184.000 |
| May-1 | 114.800 | 132.700 | 187.900 |
| May-2 | 137.700 | 141.400 | 143.300 |
Colombia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (°C) | 2025 (°C) | 2024 (°C) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 20.700 | 20.900 | 22.200 |
| Jan-2 | 20.600 | 21.500 | 22.700 |
| Jan-3 | 21.100 | 21.400 | 23.400 |
| Feb-1 | 21.100 | 21.700 | 22.000 |
| Feb-2 | 20.900 | 21.500 | 23.000 |
| Feb-3 | 21.500 | 21.300 | 23.000 |
| Mar-1 | 21.800 | 21.400 | 23.100 |
| Mar-2 | 22.000 | 21.200 | 23.300 |
| Mar-3 | 21.800 | 21.800 | 22.900 |
| Apr-1 | 21.500 | 21.100 | 22.300 |
| Apr-2 | 21.500 | 22.000 | 23.200 |
| Apr-3 | 21.300 | 21.100 | 21.600 |
| May-1 | 21.700 | 20.900 | 21.800 |
| May-2 | 21.100 | 21.000 | 22.100 |
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Colombia's Andean belt is warming ~0.3°C per decade — heat accumulation trending above historical ranges compresses the viable altitude band for arabica cultivation.
Colombia warm-dekad count year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (dkd) | 2025 (dkd) | 2024 (dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.000 |
| Jan-2 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 2.000 |
| Jan-3 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 3.000 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 4.000 |
| Feb-2 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 5.000 |
| Feb-3 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 6.000 |
| Mar-1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 7.000 |
| Mar-2 | 2.000 | 1.000 | 8.000 |
| Mar-3 | 3.000 | 2.000 | 9.000 |
| Apr-1 | 4.000 | 2.000 | 10.000 |
| Apr-2 | 5.000 | 3.000 | 11.000 |
| Apr-3 | 6.000 | 4.000 | 12.000 |
| May-1 | 7.000 | 4.000 | 13.000 |
| May-2 | 8.000 | 4.000 | 14.000 |
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Elevated readings in either bimodal flowering window (Apr–Jun, Oct–Dec) raise risk of pollen failure and reduced cherry set.
Colombia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (°C·dkd) | 2025 (°C·dkd) | 2024 (°C·dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1.100 |
| Jan-2 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 2.600 |
| Jan-3 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 4.400 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 4.700 |
| Feb-2 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 5.900 |
| Feb-3 | 0.000 | 0.300 | 7.200 |
| Mar-1 | 0.200 | 0.300 | 8.700 |
| Mar-2 | 0.600 | 0.300 | 10.400 |
| Mar-3 | 1.000 | 0.700 | 11.900 |
| Apr-1 | 1.200 | 0.700 | 12.900 |
| Apr-2 | 1.600 | 1.600 | 15.000 |
| Apr-3 | 1.900 | 1.700 | 15.600 |
| May-1 | 2.600 | 1.700 | 16.400 |
| May-2 | 2.700 | 1.700 | 17.500 |
Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the grey envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window.
Ethiopia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (dev) | 2025 (dev) | 2024 (dev) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | -0.050 | 0.230 | 0.130 |
| Jan-2 | -0.180 | -0.640 | 0.160 |
| Jan-3 | -0.510 | 0.220 | 0.470 |
| Feb-1 | 0.470 | -0.060 | 0.460 |
| Feb-2 | 0.220 | -1.000 | 0.740 |
| Feb-3 | 0.740 | -1.000 | -0.790 |
| Mar-1 | -0.610 | -0.650 | 0.500 |
| Mar-2 | -0.900 | 0.210 | -0.780 |
| Mar-3 | -1.440 | -0.050 | 0.010 |
| Apr-1 | -0.230 | 0.850 | -0.710 |
| Apr-2 | 0.660 | -0.850 | 0.940 |
| Apr-3 | -0.450 | 3.770 | -1.900 |
| May-1 | 5.000 | 3.500 | 2.250 |
| May-2 | -1.480 | 4.520 | 2.840 |
Ethiopia SM dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (fraction) | 2025 (fraction) | 2024 (fraction) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.310 | 0.320 | 0.340 |
| Jan-2 | 0.300 | 0.310 | 0.330 |
| Jan-3 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.320 |
| Feb-1 | 0.290 | 0.300 | 0.310 |
| Feb-2 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0.310 |
| Feb-3 | 0.280 | 0.290 | 0.300 |
| Mar-1 | 0.290 | 0.280 | 0.300 |
| Mar-2 | 0.290 | 0.280 | 0.300 |
| Mar-3 | 0.320 | 0.300 | 0.300 |
| Apr-1 | 0.350 | 0.310 | 0.310 |
| Apr-2 | 0.350 | 0.320 | 0.330 |
| Apr-3 | 0.360 | 0.330 | 0.340 |
| May-1 | 0.370 | 0.350 | 0.360 |
| May-2 | 0.370 | 0.350 | 0.360 |
Ethiopia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (mm) | 2025 (mm) | 2024 (mm) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Jan-2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Jan-3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Feb-2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Feb-3 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Mar-1 | 0.000 | 12.600 | 5.200 |
| Mar-2 | 28.100 | 18.100 | 0.000 |
| Mar-3 | 88.800 | 49.800 | 23.000 |
| Apr-1 | 46.100 | 0.000 | 65.500 |
| Apr-2 | 24.300 | 73.800 | 25.000 |
| Apr-3 | 69.000 | 29.400 | 86.700 |
| May-1 | 55.400 | 69.900 | 74.400 |
| May-2 | 25.300 | 22.000 | 37.800 |
Ethiopia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (°C) | 2025 (°C) | 2024 (°C) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 20.200 | 20.400 | 20.800 |
| Jan-2 | 20.700 | 20.800 | 21.400 |
| Jan-3 | 22.000 | 21.000 | 21.600 |
| Feb-1 | 21.600 | 21.700 | 21.500 |
| Feb-2 | 22.100 | 22.600 | 22.500 |
| Feb-3 | 21.900 | 22.800 | 23.200 |
| Mar-1 | 21.300 | 23.000 | 22.800 |
| Mar-2 | 21.200 | 21.500 | 23.700 |
| Mar-3 | 19.600 | 20.800 | 22.600 |
| Apr-1 | 20.300 | 22.000 | 20.900 |
| Apr-2 | 21.000 | 20.600 | 22.500 |
| Apr-3 | 20.600 | 21.100 | 21.000 |
| May-1 | 20.800 | 20.200 | 21.300 |
| May-2 | 19.700 | 20.600 | 21.500 |
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Track accumulation through the Kiremt season (Jun–Oct) as the primary risk window.
Ethiopia warm-dekad count year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (dkd) | 2025 (dkd) | 2024 (dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 1.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Jan-2 | 2.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Jan-3 | 3.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| Feb-1 | 4.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 |
| Feb-2 | 5.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 |
| Feb-3 | 5.000 | 6.000 | 6.000 |
| Mar-1 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 7.000 |
| Mar-2 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 8.000 |
| Mar-3 | 5.000 | 7.000 | 9.000 |
| Apr-1 | 5.000 | 8.000 | 9.000 |
| Apr-2 | 6.000 | 8.000 | 10.000 |
| Apr-3 | 7.000 | 9.000 | 11.000 |
| May-1 | 8.000 | 10.000 | 12.000 |
| May-2 | 8.000 | 11.000 | 13.000 |
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Above-normal readings through the main growing season compound drought stress on yield formation.
Ethiopia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (°C·dkd) | 2025 (°C·dkd) | 2024 (°C·dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.100 | 0.300 | 0.700 |
| Jan-2 | 0.500 | 0.800 | 1.800 |
| Jan-3 | 1.800 | 1.100 | 2.700 |
| Feb-1 | 2.200 | 1.600 | 3.000 |
| Feb-2 | 2.800 | 2.700 | 4.000 |
| Feb-3 | 2.800 | 3.600 | 5.300 |
| Mar-1 | 2.800 | 4.700 | 6.200 |
| Mar-2 | 2.800 | 4.700 | 8.200 |
| Mar-3 | 2.800 | 4.700 | 9.400 |
| Apr-1 | 2.800 | 5.500 | 9.400 |
| Apr-2 | 3.000 | 5.500 | 11.100 |
| Apr-3 | 3.300 | 6.300 | 11.800 |
| May-1 | 4.100 | 6.500 | 13.100 |
| May-2 | 4.100 | 7.200 | 14.700 |
Central America’s arabica harvest runs November–March. The May–October rainy season drives crop development — sustained moisture stress during this window is the primary supply risk. Guatemala’s western highlands and Honduras’s mountain regions dominate regional volume.
Central America CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (dev) | 2025 (dev) | 2024 (dev) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.240 | -0.550 | 0.240 |
| Jan-2 | 0.030 | 0.210 | -0.090 |
| Jan-3 | 0.170 | 0.110 | 0.010 |
| Feb-1 | -1.000 | 1.070 | -1.000 |
| Feb-2 | -1.000 | 2.060 | -0.630 |
| Feb-3 | -1.910 | 0.260 | -1.000 |
| Mar-1 | -1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Mar-2 | -0.910 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Mar-3 | -1.060 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Apr-1 | -0.960 | -0.680 | -1.000 |
| Apr-2 | -1.000 | -1.000 | -1.000 |
| Apr-3 | -1.000 | -1.750 | -1.000 |
| May-1 | -1.420 | -2.470 | -1.000 |
| May-2 | -1.000 | -1.610 | 0.910 |
Central America SM dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (fraction) | 2025 (fraction) | 2024 (fraction) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.360 | 0.380 | 0.350 |
| Jan-2 | 0.340 | 0.370 | 0.340 |
| Jan-3 | 0.340 | 0.360 | 0.320 |
| Feb-1 | 0.330 | 0.350 | 0.320 |
| Feb-2 | 0.320 | 0.340 | 0.300 |
| Feb-3 | 0.310 | 0.330 | 0.290 |
| Mar-1 | 0.300 | 0.320 | 0.280 |
| Mar-2 | 0.290 | 0.300 | 0.270 |
| Mar-3 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0.260 |
| Apr-1 | 0.290 | 0.280 | 0.250 |
| Apr-2 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.250 |
| Apr-3 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.250 |
| May-1 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 0.240 |
| May-2 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 0.240 |
Central America RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (mm) | 2025 (mm) | 2024 (mm) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 38.600 | 0.000 |
| Jan-2 | 18.200 | 0.000 | 4.800 |
| Jan-3 | 12.200 | 28.400 | 5.000 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Feb-2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Feb-3 | 12.100 | 4.200 | 0.000 |
| Mar-1 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Mar-2 | 9.600 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Mar-3 | 23.700 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Apr-1 | 11.400 | 20.600 | 0.000 |
| Apr-2 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Apr-3 | 0.000 | 4.900 | 0.000 |
| May-1 | 4.200 | 15.200 | 0.000 |
| May-2 | 0.000 | 19.400 | 10.600 |
Central America TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay
| Dekad | 2026 (°C) | 2025 (°C) | 2024 (°C) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 21.400 | 21.800 | 22.700 |
| Jan-2 | 21.500 | 22.400 | 23.500 |
| Jan-3 | 21.700 | 22.100 | 23.000 |
| Feb-1 | 19.500 | 22.700 | 22.100 |
| Feb-2 | 22.400 | 23.000 | 23.700 |
| Feb-3 | 22.400 | 23.200 | 22.600 |
| Mar-1 | 23.400 | 24.000 | 25.000 |
| Mar-2 | 23.200 | 24.400 | 25.700 |
| Mar-3 | 22.700 | 24.300 | 26.200 |
| Apr-1 | 23.900 | 24.600 | 26.000 |
| Apr-2 | 24.200 | 23.800 | 25.700 |
| Apr-3 | 25.100 | 24.500 | 25.900 |
| May-1 | 26.400 | 25.700 | 27.100 |
| May-2 | 26.200 | 25.500 | 27.400 |
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Persistent above-normal readings through the rainy season (May–Oct) compress the physiological recovery window before the Nov–Mar harvest.
Central America warm-dekad count year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (dkd) | 2025 (dkd) | 2024 (dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 1.000 | 1.000 |
| Jan-2 | 0.000 | 2.000 | 2.000 |
| Jan-3 | 0.000 | 3.000 | 3.000 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 4.000 | 4.000 |
| Feb-2 | 1.000 | 5.000 | 5.000 |
| Feb-3 | 1.000 | 6.000 | 5.000 |
| Mar-1 | 2.000 | 7.000 | 6.000 |
| Mar-2 | 2.000 | 8.000 | 7.000 |
| Mar-3 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 8.000 |
| Apr-1 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 9.000 |
| Apr-2 | 2.000 | 9.000 | 10.000 |
| Apr-3 | 3.000 | 9.000 | 11.000 |
| May-1 | 4.000 | 10.000 | 12.000 |
| May-2 | 5.000 | 11.000 | 13.000 |
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). El Salvador and Guatemala have among the highest rates of climate-attributable harmful heat days — elevated readings here are a forward indicator of quality and yield pressure.
Central America integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date
| Dekad | 2026 (°C·dkd) | 2025 (°C·dkd) | 2024 (°C·dkd) |
|---|
| Jan-1 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 1.100 |
| Jan-2 | 0.000 | 1.100 | 3.100 |
| Jan-3 | 0.000 | 1.500 | 4.400 |
| Feb-1 | 0.000 | 2.200 | 4.500 |
| Feb-2 | 0.100 | 2.900 | 5.900 |
| Feb-3 | 0.100 | 3.300 | 5.900 |
| Mar-1 | 0.600 | 4.400 | 8.000 |
| Mar-2 | 0.600 | 5.400 | 10.300 |
| Mar-3 | 0.600 | 5.900 | 12.700 |
| Apr-1 | 0.600 | 5.900 | 14.100 |
| Apr-2 | 0.600 | 5.900 | 15.200 |
| Apr-3 | 0.700 | 5.900 | 16.100 |
| May-1 | 2.200 | 6.700 | 18.300 |
| May-2 | 3.900 | 7.700 | 21.200 |
Deforestation risk index for each arabica growing region, combining Global Forest Watch
GLAD deforestation alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data.
This index reflects regional land-use pressure — not your specific supplier's compliance status.
Data is updated when GFW and Trase datasets refresh. Source: Global Forest Watch, Trase.earth, ERA5-Land.
Brazil Arabica
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 58,899,333 ha
Colombia
73 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 10,762,659 ha
Ethiopia
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 32,303,506 ha
Risk index (0–100) combining GFW GLAD alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data. Red line = High threshold (60). Gold line = Moderate threshold (40). Higher score = greater deforestation pressure in the production region.
BRL/USD (Brazilian reais per US dollar). A rising rate means a weaker real —
Brazilian farmers receive more reais per bag exported, increasing their willingness to sell
and adding supply pressure to KC prices. A falling rate (stronger real) tends to support prices
as sellers hold back. Source: FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (DEXBZUS).
Dotted line: KC nearby futures price (¢/lb).