Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica
SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com
Report date: Week of May 22, 2026
Data as of: COT 05/19/2026 | Weather through May Dkd 2, 2026
KC Front-Month Price: 272.35 ¢/lb

HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/arabica_coffee_report_8b023e3a.html

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AT A GLANCE

KC Front-Month Price          : 272.35 ¢/lb
Managed Money Net Position    : +17,908 contracts (54th percentile - Neutral)
Managed Money WoW Change      : -7,121 contracts
Commercial Net Position       : +6,618 contracts (61th percentile)
Open Interest                 : 234,834 contracts
World Stocks-to-Use (2025)    : 11.6% (historically tight)
Brazil Production (USDA 2025) : 63,000k bags
BRL/USD                       : 4.8976

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COT POSITIONING — LAST 8 WEEKS

| Date       | MM Net  | MM Pct | Comm Net | Open Interest |
| ---------- | ------- | ------ | -------- | ------------- |
| 03/31/2026 | +25,482 | 62th   | -3,082   | 217,567       |
| 04/07/2026 | +22,658 | 59th   | +628     | 219,400       |
| 04/14/2026 | +26,349 | 63th   | -872     | 199,432       |
| 04/21/2026 | +23,833 | 60th   | +2,213   | 196,764       |
| 04/28/2026 | +29,410 | 66th   | -2,329   | 205,885       |
| 05/05/2026 | +31,035 | 68th   | -5,019   | 213,086       |
| 05/12/2026 | +25,028 | 61th   | +2,186   | 220,013       |
| 05/19/2026 | +17,908 | 54th   | +6,618   | 234,834       |

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COT MARKET ANALYSIS

Managed money is neutral (54th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 17,908 contracts. Week-over-week change: -7,121 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are neutral to long (61th percentile) .

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WEATHER — CROP WATER STRESS (CWSI) — May Dkd 2

| Region          | CWSI Dev | Condition                      |
| --------------- | -------- | ------------------------------ |
| Brazil Arabica  | -0.65    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |
| Colombia        | -0.71    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |
| Ethiopia        | -1.48    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |
| Central America | -1.00    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |

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WEATHER ANALYSIS

Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.65) · Colombia : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.71) · Ethiopia : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.48) · Central America : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.00). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.

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SUPPLY & DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS

• World Stocks-to-Use (2025): 11.6% — historically tight (2th percentile)
• Brazil 2025 USDA Production Estimate: 63 million bags
• Brazil 2026 CONAB 1st Survey: 66.2M bags (+9.7M YoY)
  - Arabica: 44.1M bags  |  Conilon: 22.1M bags
• BRL/USD: 4.8976 — Strong real — sellers tend to hold back (1yr range: 4.90–5.74)

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KEY MARKET INSIGHTS

• Managed Money is neutral (54th percentile), net +17,908 contracts.
  Week-over-week change: -7,121 contracts.
• Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants): neutral to long (61th percentile), +6,618 contracts.
• Brazil CWSI -0.65 (Below Normal — Good Conditions). Colombia -0.71 (Below Normal — Good Conditions). Ethiopia -1.48 (Below Normal — Good Conditions). Central America -1.00 (Below Normal — Good Conditions).
• World coffee supply remains structurally tight (STU 11.6%).

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ORIGIN DEFORESTATION RISK INDEX (0-100)

| Origin   | Risk Score | Level |
| -------- | ---------- | ----- |
| Brazil   | 76.7 / 100 | High  |
| Colombia | 73.4 / 100 | High  |
| Ethiopia | 77.3 / 100 | High  |

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DATA SOURCES

• CFTC Disaggregated COT (ICE KC Arabica, code 083731)
• USDA FAS PSD & CONAB
• ERA5-Land / FAO CWSI Model
• Global Forest Watch (GLAD alerts)

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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