Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.

Commercial net position (producers, merchants & swap dealers combined) by week of year. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.

Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.

Soil moisture fraction. Values below the gray envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.

10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the gray historical envelope.

Running count of dekads year-to-date where average temperature exceeded the climatological normal. An accelerating slope relative to prior years indicates persistent above-normal heat accumulation — a risk to flowering induction and dry-season recovery.

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Integrates both frequency and magnitude of above-normal heat. Elevated readings during Brazil's dry winter months signal risk of degraded flower-bud induction and reduced phenological recovery before the spring flush.

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Colombia's Andean belt is warming ~0.3°C per decade — heat accumulation trending above historical ranges compresses the viable altitude band for arabica cultivation.

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Elevated readings in either bimodal flowering window (Apr–Jun, Oct–Dec) raise risk of pollen failure and reduced cherry set.

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Track accumulation through the Kiremt season (Jun–Oct) as the primary risk window.

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Above-normal readings through the main growing season compound drought stress on yield formation.

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Persistent above-normal readings through the rainy season (May–Oct) compress the physiological recovery window before the Nov–Mar harvest.

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). El Salvador and Guatemala have among the highest rates of climate-attributable harmful heat days — elevated readings here are a forward indicator of quality and yield pressure.