Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica

At a Glance

All readings as of most recent available data

MM Net Position

+3,132 cts

Managed money long minus short · 42th pct since 2006

42th pct

MM Gross Long

35,924 cts

Gross long · 48th pct

48th pct

MM Gross Short

32,792 cts

Gross short · 62th pct

62th pct

Commercial Net

-1,014 cts

Producers & merchants net · 63th pct

63th pct

Open Interest

272,513 cts

Total futures open interest

71th pct

Brazil Arabica

-0.68

CWSI Dev — Jun Dkd 1

Below Normal — Good Conditions

Colombia

+0.67

CWSI Dev — Jun Dkd 1

Above Normal — Mild Stress

Ethiopia

-0.58

CWSI Dev — Jun Dkd 1

Below Normal — Good Conditions

Central America

+0.28

CWSI Dev — May Dkd 3

Near Normal

Supply & Demand

USDA PSD world balance sheet · CONAB Brazil · BRL/USD

World Stocks-to-Use

11.6%

Historically tight · 2025 · 2th pct

Brazil Production

63,000

1,000 × 60kg bags · 2025 USDA est.

Brazil Total (CONAB)

66.7M bags

2026 2nd Survey · +9.7M YoY

Arabica / Conilon Split

45.8M / 20.9M

Conilon 31.4% of Brazil total · 2026 2nd Survey

BRL / USD

5.1444

Strong real (↓ BRL/USD) = sellers hold back · 1yr: 4.90–5.64

World ending stocks ÷ world domestic consumption. 20-year window. Lower = tighter supply, price supportive. Gold dashed line = 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution.

World coffee stocks-to-use ratio by market year

Market Year	Stocks-to-Use (%)
06/07	28.7%
07/08	24.4%
08/09	31.5%
09/10	20.7%
10/11	21.1%
11/12	18.0%
12/13	24.7%
13/14	28.6%
14/15	29.3%
15/16	22.8%
16/17	23.5%
17/18	19.9%
18/19	22.3%
19/20	22.1%
20/21	23.1%
21/22	19.0%
22/23	16.0%
23/24	14.1%
24/25	12.4%
25/26	11.6%

World stocks-to-use from USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution (PSD). CONAB figures show latest Brazil survey estimate. BRL/USD from FRED. A weaker Brazilian real (higher BRL/USD) increases seller willingness in Brazil — the world's largest coffee producer — and tends to pressure KC and RC futures prices.

Market Positioning

CFTC Disaggregated COT — ICE KC Arabica Coffee (code 083731)

Managed money is neutral (42th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 3,132 contracts. Week-over-week change: -9,063 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are neutral to long (63th percentile).

KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.

KC Arabica managed money net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	33.7	57.9	41.1
Jan	34.5	60.5	42.1
Jan	32.5	62.9	42.7
Jan	35.2	65.6	46.1
Feb	23.9	65.7	48.6
Feb	16.8	60.2	48.2
Feb	14.7	59.6	50.5
Feb	12.9	57.9	45.8
Mar	12.4	54.9	42.7
Mar	14.8	52.4	43.4
Mar	18.6	51.4	47.1
Mar	23.9	53.7	42.4
Mar	25.5	49.3	47.9
Apr	22.7	37.4	57.3
Apr	26.3	33.1	66.9
Apr	23.8	34.9	71.8
Apr	29.4	41.6	68.2
May	31.0	41.7	68.3
May	25.0	40.7	59.0
May	17.9	38.4	52.6
May	17.4	36.0	52.6
Jun	12.2	30.7	56.6
Jun	3.1	32.6	62.0

Commercial net position (producers, merchants & swap dealers combined) by week of year. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

KC Arabica commercial net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	-37.1	-66.6	-47.4
Jan	-38.6	-73.2	-49.2
Jan	-34.5	-75.7	-52.1
Jan	-36.9	-77.9	-55.1
Feb	-21.8	-75.4	-57.4
Feb	-15.1	-68.3	-56.0
Feb	-12.1	-66.2	-59.2
Feb	-11.9	-64.1	-54.1
Mar	-11.4	-62.9	-50.5
Mar	-15.2	-60.6	-53.1
Mar	-17.9	-58.9	-56.6
Mar	-24.3	-61.3	-49.8
Mar	-25.3	-55.9	-54.9
Apr	-21.2	-43.1	-67.1
Apr	-22.8	-41.3	-76.2
Apr	-18.7	-42.2	-79.6
Apr	-24.7	-50.2	-77.1
May	-27.7	-49.9	-75.1
May	-19.7	-47.2	-67.4
May	-13.9	-44.9	-62.3
May	-14.8	-42.0	-63.9
Jun	-10.3	-36.6	-67.8
Jun	-1.0	-39.3	-71.4

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

KC Arabica managed money gross long by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	45.2	62.5	60.0
Jan	46.4	64.1	58.7
Jan	45.4	66.7	58.2
Jan	47.1	69.5	60.4
Feb	39.2	69.8	65.1
Feb	35.9	64.6	65.1
Feb	36.4	63.8	67.3
Feb	35.9	62.6	63.8
Mar	35.1	59.9	60.0
Mar	35.8	56.7	60.2
Mar	37.3	55.7	62.6
Mar	38.5	57.7	58.8
Mar	38.2	54.3	62.7
Apr	37.4	43.8	72.4
Apr	40.7	38.2	79.1
Apr	41.4	39.8	81.9
Apr	43.9	47.3	77.8
May	46.3	47.3	78.7
May	45.0	46.0	68.8
May	42.5	43.7	62.1
May	41.3	41.9	62.1
Jun	39.6	37.3	65.8
Jun	35.9	38.5	70.0

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

KC Arabica managed money gross short by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	11.5	4.6	18.9
Jan	11.9	3.6	16.5
Jan	12.9	3.8	15.4
Jan	12.0	3.9	14.3
Feb	15.4	4.0	16.5
Feb	19.1	4.4	16.9
Feb	21.7	4.2	16.7
Feb	23.0	4.7	18.0
Mar	22.8	5.0	17.4
Mar	20.9	4.3	16.8
Mar	18.7	4.3	15.6
Mar	14.5	4.0	16.4
Mar	12.7	5.0	14.8
Apr	14.7	6.4	15.1
Apr	14.3	5.0	12.3
Apr	17.6	4.9	10.0
Apr	14.4	5.7	9.6
May	15.3	5.5	10.4
May	19.9	5.4	9.7
May	24.6	5.3	9.5
May	23.8	5.9	9.6
Jun	27.4	6.6	9.2
Jun	32.8	5.9	8.0

Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.

KC Arabica open interest by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan	203.5	251.3	273.8
Jan	201.5	239.2	269.5
Jan	202.4	241.8	264.3
Jan	207.0	259.9	268.7
Feb	226.5	267.9	273.3
Feb	226.1	273.5	280.7
Feb	192.4	217.8	252.2
Feb	202.2	215.8	236.0
Mar	208.6	218.9	239.5
Mar	206.2	222.4	247.5
Mar	210.7	219.2	244.4
Mar	217.8	224.5	248.7
Mar	217.6	224.9	267.0
Apr	219.4	225.1	282.6
Apr	199.4	181.5	295.6
Apr	196.8	177.9	287.0
Apr	205.9	196.9	290.6
May	213.1	193.7	289.5
May	220.0	189.2	288.1
May	234.8	185.8	277.6
May	235.4	190.4	276.2
Jun	253.2	199.1	291.0
Jun	272.5	198.9	309.8

Deferred crop-year net positions by trader category (CFTC 'Other' crop-year split: contract months beyond the current crop year, futures and options combined). Teal = managed money deferred net. Gold = swap dealer deferred net. Red = producer/commercial deferred net (forward hedging of new-crop supply). White dotted = SPRT percentile rank — share of OI concentrated in deferred crop years. Elevated concentration + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.

Crop Conditions Overview

CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average across all arabica regions

Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year. Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) · Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk). Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year. Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.

Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar).

Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.

Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.

Brazil Arabica — Seasonal Detail

Minas Gerais / São Paulo · Primary arabica production zone

Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.68) · Colombia: Above Normal — Mild Stress (+0.67) · Ethiopia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.58) · Central America: Near Normal (+0.28). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.

CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal.

Brazil Arabica CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-0.040	-4.080	-5.000
Jan-2	1.940	-1.110	4.140
Jan-3	-1.850	1.190	-3.040
Feb-1	-2.320	1.350	0.370
Feb-2	0.450	1.540	-1.210
Feb-3	-2.880	1.820	-0.550
Mar-1	-1.050	3.830	0.550
Mar-2	-1.000	2.460	1.890
Mar-3	-0.970	0.460	-0.890
Apr-1	-1.000	0.840	0.200
Apr-2	-0.030	-0.550	0.230
Apr-3	0.180	-0.290	0.290
May-1	0.200	0.150	0.360
May-2	0.120	0.290	0.420
May-3	0.010	0.180	0.310
Jun-1	-0.680	0.130	0.260

Soil moisture fraction. Values below the grey envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.

Brazil Arabica SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.360	0.420	0.330
Jan-2	0.360	0.430	0.360
Jan-3	0.390	0.410	0.370
Feb-1	0.410	0.410	0.390
Feb-2	0.410	0.390	0.390
Feb-3	0.410	0.360	0.420
Mar-1	0.420	0.340	0.400
Mar-2	0.430	0.330	0.390
Mar-3	0.420	0.330	0.390
Apr-1	0.400	0.320	0.390
Apr-2	0.390	0.320	0.380
Apr-3	0.380	0.330	0.360
May-1	0.360	0.330	0.340
May-2	0.340	0.330	0.330
May-3	0.340	0.320	0.320
Jun-1	0.330	0.310	0.310

10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the grey historical envelope.

Brazil Arabica RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	71.600	99.700	100.600
Jan-2	45.500	69.700	24.500
Jan-3	90.600	47.100	106.500
Feb-1	98.500	27.100	42.600
Feb-2	25.000	0.000	76.100
Feb-3	104.100	0.000	50.600
Mar-1	13.900	0.000	34.400
Mar-2	31.100	20.100	5.300
Mar-3	4.900	34.800	64.900
Apr-1	5.600	11.900	12.300
Apr-2	0.000	39.000	0.000
Apr-3	0.000	17.100	0.000
May-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
May-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
May-3	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jun-1	0.000	0.000	0.000

Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the grey envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.

Brazil Arabica TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	23.900	23.400	23.800
Jan-2	23.700	23.400	25.400
Jan-3	22.600	24.800	23.600
Feb-1	23.700	24.000	23.900
Feb-2	24.100	25.300	23.900
Feb-3	22.800	25.300	24.400
Mar-1	23.500	25.000	24.900
Mar-2	23.500	25.600	25.700
Mar-3	22.400	24.100	23.600
Apr-1	22.900	23.600	23.800
Apr-2	22.500	23.100	23.500
Apr-3	23.100	22.600	23.700
May-1	22.700	21.500	23.700
May-2	21.900	20.700	23.500
May-3	21.100	20.700	21.400
Jun-1	20.000	21.200	20.700

Running count of dekads year-to-date where average temperature exceeded the climatological normal. An accelerating slope relative to prior years indicates persistent above-normal heat accumulation — a risk to flowering induction and dry-season recovery.

Brazil Arabica warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	1.000	0.000	1.000
Jan-2	1.000	0.000	2.000
Jan-3	1.000	1.000	2.000
Feb-1	1.000	2.000	2.000
Feb-2	2.000	3.000	2.000
Feb-3	2.000	4.000	3.000
Mar-1	2.000	5.000	4.000
Mar-2	2.000	6.000	5.000
Mar-3	2.000	7.000	6.000
Apr-1	2.000	8.000	7.000
Apr-2	2.000	9.000	8.000
Apr-3	3.000	10.000	9.000
May-1	4.000	11.000	10.000
May-2	5.000	11.000	11.000
May-3	6.000	12.000	12.000
Jun-1	6.000	13.000	13.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Integrates both frequency and magnitude of above-normal heat. Elevated readings during Brazil's dry winter months signal risk of degraded flower-bud induction and reduced phenological recovery before the spring flush.

Brazil Arabica integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.300	0.000	0.200
Jan-2	0.300	0.000	1.900
Jan-3	0.300	1.000	1.900
Feb-1	0.300	1.100	1.900
Feb-2	0.500	2.500	1.900
Feb-3	0.500	3.800	2.300
Mar-1	0.500	5.200	3.600
Mar-2	0.500	7.300	5.800
Mar-3	0.500	8.300	6.300
Apr-1	0.500	8.900	7.100
Apr-2	0.500	9.400	8.000
Apr-3	1.400	9.800	9.500
May-1	2.700	9.900	11.800
May-2	3.800	9.900	14.500
May-3	4.500	10.200	15.500
Jun-1	4.500	11.300	16.100

Colombia — Seasonal Detail

Andean growing region · Bimodal rainfall · Year-round harvest

Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk.

Colombia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-5.000	-2.620	-0.670
Jan-2	-4.380	-5.000	-5.000
Jan-3	-5.000	5.000	-5.000
Feb-1	0.150	-1.940	0.470
Feb-2	-1.380	-1.480	0.380
Feb-3	0.220	-1.920	-0.030
Mar-1	0.910	0.720	-0.090
Mar-2	1.140	-0.490	-0.680
Mar-3	0.960	0.380	1.630
Apr-1	0.980	-0.890	0.030
Apr-2	0.570	0.830	0.070
Apr-3	0.700	-0.300	-0.720
May-1	0.420	0.170	-0.610
May-2	0.310	0.000	0.230
May-3	-0.060	-0.220	-0.220
Jun-1	0.670	-0.770	0.060

Colombia SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.420	0.440	0.410
Jan-2	0.440	0.420	0.400
Jan-3	0.430	0.400	0.380
Feb-1	0.440	0.400	0.380
Feb-2	0.430	0.410	0.390
Feb-3	0.440	0.420	0.380
Mar-1	0.430	0.430	0.370
Mar-2	0.420	0.440	0.380
Mar-3	0.430	0.440	0.380
Apr-1	0.440	0.450	0.400
Apr-2	0.450	0.450	0.400
Apr-3	0.450	0.460	0.430
May-1	0.460	0.470	0.460
May-2	0.450	0.460	0.460
May-3	0.450	0.460	0.460
Jun-1	0.450	0.460	0.460

Colombia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	116.900	98.100	18.100
Jan-2	89.600	30.600	35.900
Jan-3	103.900	67.200	11.500
Feb-1	94.600	82.700	94.100
Feb-2	93.500	104.700	38.000
Feb-3	57.700	104.900	14.500
Mar-1	21.800	93.000	43.000
Mar-2	17.000	126.300	87.800
Mar-3	9.400	108.000	68.800
Apr-1	9.700	155.100	105.800
Apr-2	92.500	99.000	81.700
Apr-3	105.400	162.100	184.000
May-1	114.800	132.700	187.900
May-2	123.000	141.400	143.300
May-3	157.100	174.600	175.300
Jun-1	41.800	171.300	135.600

Colombia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	20.700	20.900	22.200
Jan-2	20.600	21.500	22.700
Jan-3	21.100	21.400	23.400
Feb-1	21.100	21.700	22.000
Feb-2	20.900	21.500	23.000
Feb-3	21.500	21.300	23.000
Mar-1	21.800	21.400	23.100
Mar-2	22.000	21.200	23.300
Mar-3	21.000	21.800	22.900
Apr-1	21.600	21.100	22.300
Apr-2	21.400	22.000	23.200
Apr-3	21.300	21.100	21.600
May-1	21.700	20.900	21.800
May-2	21.500	21.000	22.100
May-3	21.300	21.200	21.600
Jun-1	21.600	20.500	21.500

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Colombia's Andean belt is warming ~0.3°C per decade — heat accumulation trending above historical ranges compresses the viable altitude band for arabica cultivation.

Colombia warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	1.000
Jan-2	0.000	1.000	2.000
Jan-3	0.000	1.000	3.000
Feb-1	0.000	1.000	4.000
Feb-2	0.000	1.000	5.000
Feb-3	0.000	1.000	6.000
Mar-1	1.000	1.000	7.000
Mar-2	2.000	1.000	8.000
Mar-3	2.000	2.000	9.000
Apr-1	3.000	2.000	10.000
Apr-2	4.000	3.000	11.000
Apr-3	5.000	4.000	12.000
May-1	6.000	4.000	13.000
May-2	7.000	4.000	14.000
May-3	8.000	5.000	15.000
Jun-1	9.000	5.000	16.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Elevated readings in either bimodal flowering window (Apr–Jun, Oct–Dec) raise risk of pollen failure and reduced cherry set.

Colombia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	1.100
Jan-2	0.000	0.300	2.600
Jan-3	0.000	0.300	4.400
Feb-1	0.000	0.300	4.700
Feb-2	0.000	0.300	5.900
Feb-3	0.000	0.300	7.200
Mar-1	0.200	0.300	8.700
Mar-2	0.600	0.300	10.400
Mar-3	0.600	0.700	11.900
Apr-1	0.900	0.700	12.900
Apr-2	1.200	1.600	15.000
Apr-3	1.500	1.700	15.600
May-1	2.200	1.700	16.400
May-2	2.700	1.700	17.500
May-3	3.200	2.100	18.300
Jun-1	4.100	2.100	19.100

Ethiopia — Seasonal Detail

Jimma / Sidama / Yirgacheffe · Africa's largest arabica producer

Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the grey envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window.

Ethiopia CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-0.050	0.230	0.130
Jan-2	-0.180	-0.640	0.160
Jan-3	-0.510	0.220	0.470
Feb-1	0.470	-0.060	0.460
Feb-2	0.220	-1.000	0.740
Feb-3	0.740	-1.000	-0.790
Mar-1	-0.610	-0.650	0.500
Mar-2	-0.900	0.210	-0.780
Mar-3	-1.020	-0.050	0.010
Apr-1	-0.920	0.850	-0.710
Apr-2	0.220	-0.850	0.940
Apr-3	-0.450	3.770	-1.900
May-1	5.000	3.500	2.250
May-2	1.450	4.520	2.840
May-3	0.740	1.360	2.900
Jun-1	-0.580	3.640	2.280

Ethiopia SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.310	0.320	0.340
Jan-2	0.300	0.310	0.330
Jan-3	0.300	0.300	0.320
Feb-1	0.290	0.300	0.310
Feb-2	0.290	0.290	0.310
Feb-3	0.280	0.290	0.300
Mar-1	0.290	0.280	0.300
Mar-2	0.290	0.280	0.300
Mar-3	0.340	0.300	0.300
Apr-1	0.350	0.310	0.310
Apr-2	0.350	0.320	0.330
Apr-3	0.360	0.330	0.340
May-1	0.370	0.350	0.360
May-2	0.370	0.350	0.360
May-3	0.370	0.360	0.370
Jun-1	0.380	0.360	0.370

Ethiopia RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jan-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jan-3	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-3	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mar-1	0.000	12.600	5.200
Mar-2	28.100	18.100	0.000
Mar-3	9.000	49.800	23.000
Apr-1	4.200	0.000	65.500
Apr-2	24.300	73.800	25.000
Apr-3	69.000	29.400	86.700
May-1	55.400	69.900	74.400
May-2	46.900	22.000	37.800
May-3	58.000	48.100	24.100
Jun-1	16.600	21.300	29.600

Ethiopia TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	20.200	20.400	20.800
Jan-2	20.700	20.800	21.400
Jan-3	22.000	21.000	21.600
Feb-1	21.600	21.700	21.500
Feb-2	22.100	22.600	22.500
Feb-3	21.900	22.800	23.200
Mar-1	21.300	23.000	22.800
Mar-2	21.200	21.500	23.700
Mar-3	19.900	20.800	22.600
Apr-1	20.500	22.000	20.900
Apr-2	21.000	20.600	22.500
Apr-3	20.600	21.100	21.000
May-1	20.800	20.200	21.300
May-2	20.300	20.600	21.500
May-3	20.500	20.300	20.900
Jun-1	20.100	20.100	20.800

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Track accumulation through the Kiremt season (Jun–Oct) as the primary risk window.

Ethiopia warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	1.000	1.000	1.000
Jan-2	2.000	2.000	2.000
Jan-3	3.000	3.000	3.000
Feb-1	4.000	4.000	4.000
Feb-2	5.000	5.000	5.000
Feb-3	5.000	6.000	6.000
Mar-1	5.000	7.000	7.000
Mar-2	5.000	7.000	8.000
Mar-3	5.000	7.000	9.000
Apr-1	5.000	8.000	9.000
Apr-2	6.000	8.000	10.000
Apr-3	7.000	9.000	11.000
May-1	8.000	10.000	12.000
May-2	9.000	11.000	13.000
May-3	10.000	12.000	14.000
Jun-1	11.000	13.000	15.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Above-normal readings through the main growing season compound drought stress on yield formation.

Ethiopia integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.100	0.300	0.700
Jan-2	0.500	0.800	1.800
Jan-3	1.800	1.100	2.700
Feb-1	2.200	1.600	3.000
Feb-2	2.800	2.700	4.000
Feb-3	2.800	3.600	5.300
Mar-1	2.800	4.700	6.200
Mar-2	2.800	4.700	8.200
Mar-3	2.800	4.700	9.400
Apr-1	2.800	5.500	9.400
Apr-2	3.000	5.500	11.100
Apr-3	3.300	6.300	11.800
May-1	4.100	6.500	13.100
May-2	4.500	7.200	14.700
May-3	5.400	7.900	16.000
Jun-1	6.200	8.700	17.500

Central America — Seasonal Detail

Guatemala / Honduras / Costa Rica / El Salvador · High-altitude washed arabica

Central America’s arabica harvest runs November–March. The May–October rainy season drives crop development — sustained moisture stress during this window is the primary supply risk. Guatemala’s western highlands and Honduras’s mountain regions dominate regional volume.

Central America CWSI dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	0.240	-0.550	0.240
Jan-2	0.030	0.210	-0.090
Jan-3	0.170	0.110	0.010
Feb-1	-1.000	1.070	-1.000
Feb-2	-1.000	2.060	-0.630
Feb-3	-1.910	0.260	-1.000
Mar-1	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Mar-2	-0.910	-1.000	-1.000
Mar-3	-1.060	-1.000	-1.000
Apr-1	-1.000	-0.680	-1.000
Apr-2	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Apr-3	-1.000	-1.750	-1.000
May-1	-1.420	-2.470	-1.000
May-2	1.000	1.610	-0.910
May-3	0.280	0.500	0.180

Central America SM dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.360	0.380	0.350
Jan-2	0.340	0.370	0.340
Jan-3	0.340	0.360	0.320
Feb-1	0.330	0.350	0.320
Feb-2	0.320	0.340	0.300
Feb-3	0.310	0.330	0.290
Mar-1	0.300	0.320	0.280
Mar-2	0.290	0.300	0.270
Mar-3	0.290	0.290	0.260
Apr-1	0.290	0.280	0.250
Apr-2	0.280	0.280	0.250
Apr-3	0.280	0.280	0.250
May-1	0.270	0.270	0.240
May-2	0.260	0.270	0.240
May-3	0.260	0.270	0.240

Central America RAIN dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	0.000	38.600	0.000
Jan-2	18.200	0.000	4.800
Jan-3	12.200	28.400	5.000
Feb-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-3	12.100	4.200	0.000
Mar-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mar-2	9.600	0.000	0.000
Mar-3	23.700	0.000	0.000
Apr-1	0.000	20.600	0.000
Apr-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Apr-3	0.000	4.900	0.000
May-1	4.200	15.200	0.000
May-2	0.000	19.400	10.600
May-3	57.400	15.200	33.000

Central America TEMP dekadal seasonal overlay

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	21.400	21.800	22.700
Jan-2	21.500	22.400	23.500
Jan-3	21.700	22.100	23.000
Feb-1	19.500	22.700	22.100
Feb-2	22.400	23.000	23.700
Feb-3	22.400	23.200	22.600
Mar-1	23.400	24.000	25.000
Mar-2	23.200	24.400	25.700
Mar-3	22.700	24.300	26.200
Apr-1	24.500	24.600	26.000
Apr-2	24.200	23.800	25.700
Apr-3	25.100	24.500	25.900
May-1	26.400	25.700	27.100
May-2	26.300	25.500	27.400
May-3	25.700	25.900	26.900

Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Persistent above-normal readings through the rainy season (May–Oct) compress the physiological recovery window before the Nov–Mar harvest.

Central America warm-dekad count year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (dkd)	2025 (dkd)	2024 (dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	1.000	1.000
Jan-2	0.000	2.000	2.000
Jan-3	0.000	3.000	3.000
Feb-1	0.000	4.000	4.000
Feb-2	1.000	5.000	5.000
Feb-3	1.000	6.000	5.000
Mar-1	2.000	7.000	6.000
Mar-2	2.000	8.000	7.000
Mar-3	2.000	9.000	8.000
Apr-1	2.000	9.000	9.000
Apr-2	2.000	9.000	10.000
Apr-3	3.000	9.000	11.000
May-1	4.000	10.000	12.000
May-2	5.000	11.000	13.000
May-3	6.000	12.000	14.000

Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). El Salvador and Guatemala have among the highest rates of climate-attributable harmful heat days — elevated readings here are a forward indicator of quality and yield pressure.

Central America integrated thermal anomaly year-to-date

Dekad	2026 (°C·dkd)	2025 (°C·dkd)	2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1	0.000	0.200	1.100
Jan-2	0.000	1.100	3.100
Jan-3	0.000	1.500	4.400
Feb-1	0.000	2.200	4.500
Feb-2	0.100	2.900	5.900
Feb-3	0.100	3.300	5.900
Mar-1	0.600	4.400	8.000
Mar-2	0.600	5.400	10.300
Mar-3	0.600	5.900	12.700
Apr-1	0.600	5.900	14.100
Apr-2	0.600	5.900	15.200
Apr-3	0.700	5.900	16.100
May-1	2.200	6.700	18.300
May-2	4.000	7.700	21.200
May-3	5.700	9.600	24.100

ICE Certified Stocks

Deliverable arabica inventory backing the KC contract · ICE Coffee 'C' certified stock report

ICE Coffee 'C' certified stocks — the exchange-graded arabica inventory in licensed warehouses that can be delivered against the KC futures contract. A sustained drawdown means physical supply tightening relative to demand and is typically price-supportive; rebuilding stocks ease near-term scarcity. Values in thousand 60-kg bags. Source: ICE Coffee 'C' certified stock report.

Certified stocks data table

Date	Certified stocks (60-kg bags)
2024-07-31	814,924
2024-08-30	847,873
2024-09-30	813,999
2024-10-31	852,058
2024-11-29	900,548
2024-12-31	979,967
2025-01-31	867,582
2025-02-28	805,588
2025-03-31	770,476
2025-04-30	813,668
2025-05-30	888,390
2025-06-30	841,173
2025-07-31	770,621
2025-08-29	710,196
2025-09-30	569,937
2025-10-31	431,728
2025-11-28	406,959
2025-12-31	453,155
2026-01-30	435,721
2026-02-27	477,229
2026-03-31	557,474
2026-04-30	499,283
2026-05-31	435,430
2026-06-12	398,940

Brazilian Real / USD

Key FX driver of arabica prices · BRL per USD · higher = weaker real

BRL/USD (Brazilian reais per US dollar). A rising rate means a weaker real — Brazilian farmers receive more reais per bag exported, increasing their willingness to sell and adding supply pressure to KC prices. A falling rate (stronger real) tends to support prices as sellers hold back. Source: FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (DEXBZUS). Dotted line: KC nearby futures price (¢/lb).