Coffee Production & Supply Estimates
SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com
Report date: May 2026
Data as of: USDA PSD 2025 | CONAB 2026 1st Survey

HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/coffee_supply_report_1f2b6a63.html

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AT A GLANCE

World STU (2025)  : 11.6%  (2th pct vs. history)
World Ending Stocks             : 20.1M
World Production                : 178.8M
Brazil Production (USDA)        : 63.0M
Vietnam Production (USDA)       : 30.8M
Colombia Production (USDA)      : 13.8M
CONAB 2026 1st Survey: Brazil total 66.2M  (Arabica 44.1M  Conilon 22.1M)

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WORLD SUPPLY & DEMAND — USDA PSD (LAST 6 YEARS)

| Market Year | World Prod | Brazil Prod | Vietnam Prod | World End Stocks | STU % |
| ----------- | ---------- | ----------- | ------------ | ---------------- | ----- |
| 2020        | 176.5M     | 69.9M       | 29.0M        | 37.5M            | 23.1% |
| 2021        | 165.0M     | 58.1M       | 31.6M        | 31.9M            | 19.0% |
| 2022        | 164.4M     | 62.6M       | 28.3M        | 26.9M            | 16.0% |
| 2023        | 169.3M     | 66.3M       | 27.6M        | 23.1M            | 14.1% |
| 2024        | 175.3M     | 65.0M       | 29.0M        | 21.3M            | 12.4% |
| 2025        | 178.8M     | 63.0M       | 30.8M        | 20.1M            | 11.6% |

World stocks-to-use is at a multi-decade low — supply buffer is minimal.

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CONAB BRAZIL CROP SURVEYS

• 1st Survey: Total 66.2M  Arabica 44.1M  Conilon 22.1M

Year-over-year change vs. 2025 final: +9.7M bags

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USDA PSD FORECAST REVISIONS (WORLD)

Forecast year: 2025/2026  (Jun preliminary → Dec revised)

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DATA SOURCES

• USDA FAS PSD (Production, Supply and Distribution)
• CONAB (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) — Brazil crop surveys

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
© 2026 SoftSignal LLC