CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates

CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates — Monthly Survey Tracker

Divergence between Brazil's official crop agency (CONAB) and the USDA WASDE is the analytical anchor. All production in MMT. Cotton WASDE bales converted at 0.21772 MMT per million 480-lb bales.

Soybeans

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

180.5 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 11 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

180.5 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #674

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

-0.0 MMT

CONAB tracking below WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+5.2%

vs. 2024/25 final (171.5 MMT)

Domestic Use

66.3 MMT

2025/26 balance · 37% of production

Exportable Surplus

125.1 MMT

2025/26 balance · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

4.8%

2025/26 balance · ending stocks / total use · prior 5.9%

Brazil soybeans — 2025/26 Season · Survey 11 of 12. CONAB is tracking -0.0 MMT below the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 11, the current season is tracking +5.2% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Soybeans CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	177.64 MMT	166.05 MMT	162.00 MMT
2	177.60 MMT	166.14 MMT	162.42 MMT
3	177.12 MMT	166.21 MMT	160.18 MMT
4	176.12 MMT	166.33 MMT	155.62 MMT
5	177.99 MMT	166.01 MMT	149.40 MMT
6	177.85 MMT	167.37 MMT	146.86 MMT
7	179.15 MMT	167.87 MMT	146.52 MMT
8	180.13 MMT	168.34 MMT	147.68 MMT
9	180.25 MMT	169.61 MMT	147.35 MMT
10	180.57 MMT	169.49 MMT	147.34 MMT
11	180.46 MMT	169.66 MMT	147.38 MMT
12	—	171.47 MMT	151.28 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

CONAB final/latest survey estimate vs. USDA WASDE Brazil production estimate per marketing year. Divergence (red dashed line, right axis) = CONAB minus WASDE. Positive gap = CONAB tracking above WASDE; negative = CONAB tracking below.

Soybeans CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	123.26	122.00	+1.26	WASDE #599
2018/19	119.72	119.70	+0.02	WASDE #611
2019/20	124.84	128.50	-3.66	WASDE #623
2020/21	139.39	139.50	-0.11	WASDE #635
2021/22	130.83	130.50	+0.33	WASDE #647
2022/23	159.15	162.00	-2.85	WASDE #659
2023/24	151.28	154.50	-3.22	WASDE #670
2024/25	171.47	172.50	-1.03	WASDE #674
2025/26	180.46	180.50	-0.04	WASDE #674

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil soybeans production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil soybeans historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	58.39
2007/08	60.02
2008/09	57.17
2009/10	68.69
2010/11	75.32
2011/12	66.38
2012/13	81.50
2013/14	86.17
2014/15	97.09
2015/16	95.70
2016/17	115.03
2017/18	123.26
2018/19	119.72
2019/20	124.84
2020/21	139.39
2021/22	130.83
2022/23	159.15
2023/24	151.28
2024/25	171.47
2025/26	180.46

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 191.4 MMT of total supply in 2025/26, Brazil consumes 66.3 MMT at home (37% of production), leaving 125.1 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 4.8% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 50.8 MMT in 2020/21 to 66.3 MMT in 2025/26 (+31%), against production of 180.6 MMT. Balance sheet covers 6 seasons (2020/21 to 2025/26).

Bar height is total supply (opening stocks + production + imports). The split shows how much of it Brazil consumes at home (teal) versus how much reaches the export market (gold) or carries into the next season (blue).

Brazil soybeans supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
2020/21	50.83	86.11	9.36	146.30
2021/22	52.33	78.73	9.55	140.61
2022/23	55.98	101.87	11.03	168.88
2023/24	57.09	98.81	7.23	163.13
2024/25	61.52	108.18	9.97	179.67
2025/26	66.34	116.31	8.79	191.44

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil soybeans stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
2020/21	6.84
2021/22	7.29
2022/23	6.99
2023/24	4.64
2024/25	5.88
2025/26	4.81

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 11

Brazil state-level soybeans production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Soybeans production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	51.62
PR	21.96
GO	20.15
RS	18.63
MS	15.75
BA	9.45
MG	9.16
TO	5.99
MA	5.51
PA	5.40
SP	5.37
PI	4.40

Corn

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

143.0 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 11 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

140.0 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #674

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+3.0 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+2.3%

vs. 2024/25 final (139.7 MMT)

Domestic Use

94.9 MMT

2025/26 balance · 67% of production

Exportable Surplus

61.0 MMT

2025/26 balance · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

10.3%

2025/26 balance · ending stocks / total use · prior 9.4%

Brazil corn — 2025/26 Season · Survey 11 of 12. CONAB is tracking +3.0 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 11, the current season is tracking +2.3% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Corn CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	138.60 MMT	119.74 MMT	119.40 MMT
2	138.84 MMT	119.81 MMT	119.07 MMT
3	138.88 MMT	119.63 MMT	118.53 MMT
4	138.87 MMT	119.55 MMT	117.60 MMT
5	138.45 MMT	122.02 MMT	113.70 MMT
6	138.27 MMT	122.76 MMT	112.75 MMT
7	139.57 MMT	124.74 MMT	110.96 MMT
8	140.17 MMT	126.88 MMT	111.64 MMT
9	140.46 MMT	128.25 MMT	114.14 MMT
10	141.73 MMT	131.97 MMT	115.86 MMT
11	142.96 MMT	137.01 MMT	115.65 MMT
12	—	139.70 MMT	115.72 MMT

1ª Safra vs. Safrinha Breakdown

Brazil corn split: 1ª Safra (summer crop, teal) and Safrinha (2nd/3rd crop planted after soybeans, gold). The safrinha now accounts for ~75–80% of total corn output.

Corn 1ª Safra vs Safrinha production breakdown

Season	1ª Safra (MMT)	Safrinha (MMT)	Total (MMT)
2017/18	26.81	53.90	80.71
2018/19	25.65	74.40	100.05
2019/20	25.69	76.81	102.50
2020/21	24.74	62.28	87.02
2021/22	24.98	88.29	113.27
2022/23	27.37	104.49	131.86
2023/24	22.96	92.76	115.72
2024/25	24.94	114.76	139.70
2025/26	29.49	113.47	142.96

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Corn CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	80.71	82.00	-1.29	WASDE #599
2018/19	100.04	101.00	-0.96	WASDE #611
2019/20	102.50	102.00	+0.50	WASDE #623
2020/21	87.02	87.00	+0.02	WASDE #635
2021/22	113.27	116.00	-2.73	WASDE #647
2022/23	131.87	137.00	-5.13	WASDE #659
2023/24	115.72	119.00	-3.28	WASDE #670
2024/25	139.70	136.00	+3.70	WASDE #674
2025/26	142.96	140.00	+2.96	WASDE #674

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil corn production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil corn historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	51.37
2007/08	58.65
2008/09	51.00
2009/10	56.02
2010/11	57.41
2011/12	72.98
2012/13	81.51
2013/14	80.05
2014/15	84.67
2015/16	69.14
2016/17	97.84
2017/18	80.71
2018/19	100.04
2019/20	102.50
2020/21	87.02
2021/22	113.27
2022/23	131.87
2023/24	115.72
2024/25	139.70
2025/26	142.96

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 155.9 MMT of total supply in 2025/26, Brazil consumes 94.9 MMT at home (67% of production), leaving 61.0 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 10.3% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 34.5 MMT in 1999/00 to 94.9 MMT in 2025/26 (+175%), against production of 141.7 MMT. Balance sheet covers 27 seasons (1999/00 to 2025/26).

Brazil corn supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
1999/00	34.48	0.01	3.59	38.08
2000/01	34.91	5.92	5.60	46.43
2001/02	35.59	2.51	3.14	41.24
2002/03	36.92	4.05	10.39	51.36
2003/04	38.11	4.69	10.02	52.82
2004/05	39.53	0.88	5.21	45.62
2005/06	40.03	4.34	4.36	48.73
2006/07	42.84	10.86	3.20	56.90
2007/08	45.41	7.37	9.72	62.50
2008/09	46.76	7.33	7.81	61.90
2009/10	49.22	10.88	4.11	64.21
2010/11	50.65	9.28	2.35	62.28
2011/12	51.68	22.29	2.13	76.10
2012/13	52.65	26.16	5.72	84.53
2013/14	53.52	20.88	12.16	86.56
2014/15	56.48	30.13	10.53	97.14
2015/16	56.32	18.85	5.23	80.40
2016/17	57.55	30.81	15.74	104.10
2017/18	59.05	23.74	14.56	97.35
2018/19	61.94	41.07	13.19	116.20
2019/20	67.02	34.89	15.31	117.22
2020/21	71.17	20.82	13.52	105.51
2021/22	74.53	46.63	8.10	129.26
2022/23	79.47	54.63	7.20	141.30
2023/24	84.11	38.50	1.77	124.38
2024/25	90.68	41.63	12.47	144.78
2025/26	94.89	46.50	14.51	155.90

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil corn stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
1999/00	10.41
2000/01	13.72
2001/02	8.24
2002/03	25.36
2003/04	23.41
2004/05	12.90
2005/06	9.83
2006/07	5.95
2007/08	18.42
2008/09	14.44
2009/10	6.84
2010/11	3.93
2011/12	2.88
2012/13	7.26
2013/14	16.34
2014/15	12.16
2015/16	6.96
2016/17	17.81
2017/18	17.59
2018/19	12.80
2019/20	15.02
2020/21	14.69
2021/22	6.68
2022/23	5.37
2023/24	1.45
2024/25	9.42
2025/26	10.26

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 11

Brazil state-level corn production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Corn production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	58.00
PR	21.44
MS	13.04
GO	10.27
MG	7.24
RS	6.01
SP	4.73
BA	3.24
SC	3.18
MA	3.00
TO	2.73
PI	2.53

Cotton

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT (WASDE bales × 0.21772)

CONAB Estimate

4.1 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 11 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

4.1 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #674 · incl. bales conv.

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+0.0 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+0.6%

vs. 2024/25 final (4.1 MMT)

Domestic Use

0.7 MMT

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · 18% of production

Exportable Surplus

5.8 MMT

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

73.0%

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · ending stocks / total use · prior 69.2%

Brazil cotton — 2025/26 Season · Survey 11 of 12. CONAB is tracking +0.0 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 11, the current season is tracking +0.6% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Cotton CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	4.03 MMT	3.67 MMT	3.00 MMT
2	4.03 MMT	3.70 MMT	3.04 MMT
3	3.96 MMT	3.69 MMT	3.06 MMT
4	3.82 MMT	3.70 MMT	3.10 MMT
5	3.80 MMT	3.76 MMT	3.29 MMT
6	3.80 MMT	3.82 MMT	3.56 MMT
7	3.84 MMT	3.89 MMT	3.60 MMT
8	3.97 MMT	3.90 MMT	3.64 MMT
9	3.98 MMT	3.91 MMT	3.66 MMT
10	4.06 MMT	3.94 MMT	3.64 MMT
11	4.08 MMT	3.93 MMT	3.64 MMT
12	—	4.06 MMT	3.65 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Cotton CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	2.01	2.01	-0.00	WASDE #599
2022/23	3.15	2.55	+0.60	WASDE #659
2023/24	3.65	3.17	+0.48	WASDE #670
2024/25	4.06	3.70	+0.36	WASDE #674
2025/26	4.08	4.08	+0.00	WASDE #674

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil cotton production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil cotton historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	1.52
2007/08	1.60
2008/09	1.21
2009/10	1.19
2010/11	1.96
2011/12	1.88
2012/13	1.31
2013/14	1.73
2014/15	1.56
2015/16	1.29
2016/17	1.53
2017/18	2.01
2018/19	2.78
2019/20	3.00
2020/21	2.36
2021/22	2.55
2022/23	3.15
2023/24	3.65
2024/25	4.06
2025/26	4.08

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 6.5 MMT of total supply in 2024/25, Brazil consumes 0.7 MMT at home (18% of production), leaving 5.8 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 73.0% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 0.9 MMT in 1999/00 to 0.7 MMT in 2024/25 (-19%), against production of 4.1 MMT. CONAB has not yet published a 2025/26 balance, so the figures below describe 2024/25 — one season behind the production survey above. Balance sheet covers 26 seasons (1999/00 to 2024/25).

Brazil cotton supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
1999/00	0.89	0.03	0.47	1.39
2000/01	0.86	0.15	0.47	1.48
2001/02	0.81	0.11	0.38	1.30
2002/03	0.83	0.18	0.34	1.35
2003/04	0.90	0.33	0.52	1.75
2004/05	0.95	0.39	0.52	1.86
2005/06	0.98	0.30	0.36	1.64
2006/07	0.99	0.42	0.57	1.98
2007/08	1.00	0.53	0.67	2.20
2008/09	1.00	0.50	0.39	1.89
2009/10	1.04	0.51	0.08	1.63
2010/11	0.86	0.76	0.56	2.18
2011/12	0.84	1.05	0.57	2.46
2012/13	0.88	0.57	0.45	1.90
2013/14	0.81	0.75	0.65	2.21
2014/15	0.67	0.83	0.71	2.21
2015/16	0.64	0.80	0.59	2.03
2016/17	0.69	0.83	0.63	2.15
2017/18	0.70	0.97	0.98	2.65
2018/19	0.72	1.61	1.43	3.76
2019/20	0.69	2.13	1.62	4.44
2020/21	0.72	2.02	1.24	3.98
2021/22	0.68	1.80	1.32	3.80
2022/23	0.71	1.62	2.17	4.50
2023/24	0.69	2.77	2.40	5.86
2024/25	0.72	3.03	2.74	6.49

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil cotton stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
1999/00	51.10
2000/01	46.88
2001/02	41.51
2002/03	34.29
2003/04	42.53
2004/05	39.23
2005/06	27.64
2006/07	40.25
2007/08	44.17
2008/09	26.12
2009/10	4.90
2010/11	34.71
2011/12	29.89
2012/13	30.77
2013/14	41.85
2014/15	47.39
2015/16	40.52
2016/17	41.41
2017/18	58.57
2018/19	61.16
2019/20	57.39
2020/21	45.41
2021/22	53.27
2022/23	93.08
2023/24	69.18
2024/25	73.05

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 11

Brazil state-level cotton production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Cotton production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	2.82
BA	0.86
PI	0.09
MG	0.08
MS	0.07
MA	0.06
GO	0.06
TO	0.02
SP	0.01
RO	0.01
PR	0.00
CE	0.00