CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates

CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates — Monthly Survey Tracker

Divergence between Brazil's official crop agency (CONAB) and the USDA WASDE is the analytical anchor. All production in MMT. Cotton WASDE bales converted at 0.21772 MMT per million 480-lb bales.

Soybeans

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

181.6 MMT

2026/27 · Survey 1 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

186.0 MMT

2026/27 · WASDE #676

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

-4.4 MMT

CONAB tracking below WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+0.7%

vs. 2025/26 final (180.4 MMT)

Domestic Use

65.9 MMT

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · 37% of production

Exportable Surplus

125.4 MMT

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

5.0%

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · ending stocks / total use · prior 5.9%

Brazil soybeans — 2026/27 Season · Survey 1 of 12. CONAB is tracking -4.4 MMT below the USDA WASDE estimate for 2026/27. At Survey 1, the current season is tracking +0.7% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2026/27

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Soybeans CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2026/27	2025/26	2024/25
1	181.62 MMT	177.64 MMT	166.05 MMT
2	—	177.60 MMT	166.14 MMT
3	—	177.12 MMT	166.21 MMT
4	—	176.12 MMT	166.33 MMT
5	—	177.99 MMT	166.01 MMT
6	—	177.85 MMT	167.37 MMT
7	—	179.15 MMT	167.87 MMT
8	—	180.13 MMT	168.34 MMT
9	—	180.25 MMT	169.61 MMT
10	—	180.57 MMT	169.49 MMT
11	—	180.46 MMT	169.66 MMT
12	—	180.41 MMT	171.47 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

CONAB final/latest survey estimate vs. USDA WASDE Brazil production estimate per marketing year. Divergence (red dashed line, right axis) = CONAB minus WASDE. Positive gap = CONAB tracking above WASDE; negative = CONAB tracking below.

Soybeans CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	123.26	122.00	+1.26	WASDE #599
2018/19	119.72	119.70	+0.02	WASDE #611
2019/20	124.84	128.50	-3.66	WASDE #623
2020/21	139.39	139.50	-0.11	WASDE #635
2021/22	130.83	130.50	+0.33	WASDE #647
2022/23	159.15	162.00	-2.85	WASDE #659
2023/24	151.28	154.50	-3.22	WASDE #670
2024/25	171.47	172.50	-1.03	WASDE #676
2025/26	180.41	180.50	-0.09	WASDE #676
2026/27	181.62	186.00	-4.38	WASDE #676

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil soybeans production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil soybeans historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2007/08	60.02
2008/09	57.17
2009/10	68.69
2010/11	75.32
2011/12	66.38
2012/13	81.50
2013/14	86.17
2014/15	97.09
2015/16	95.70
2016/17	115.03
2017/18	123.26
2018/19	119.72
2019/20	124.84
2020/21	139.39
2021/22	130.83
2022/23	159.15
2023/24	151.28
2024/25	171.47
2025/26	180.41
2026/27	181.62

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 191.3 MMT of total supply in 2025/26, Brazil consumes 65.9 MMT at home (37% of production), leaving 125.4 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 5.0% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 50.8 MMT in 2020/21 to 65.9 MMT in 2025/26 (+30%), against production of 180.4 MMT. CONAB has not yet published a 2026/27 balance, so the figures below describe 2025/26 — one season behind the production survey above. Balance sheet covers 6 seasons (2020/21 to 2025/26).

Bar height is total supply (opening stocks + production + imports). The split shows how much of it Brazil consumes at home (teal) versus how much reaches the export market (gold) or carries into the next season (blue).

Brazil soybeans supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
2020/21	50.83	86.11	9.36	146.30
2021/22	52.33	78.73	9.55	140.61
2022/23	55.98	101.87	11.03	168.88
2023/24	57.09	98.81	7.23	163.13
2024/25	61.52	108.18	9.97	179.67
2025/26	65.90	116.24	9.14	191.28

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil soybeans stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
2020/21	6.84
2021/22	7.29
2022/23	6.99
2023/24	4.64
2024/25	5.88
2025/26	5.02

State Breakdown — 2026/27 Survey 1

Brazil state-level soybeans production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Soybeans production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	50.88
PR	21.84
GO	20.32
RS	20.18
MS	15.91
MG	9.29
BA	9.21
TO	5.95
MA	5.59
PA	5.49
SP	5.38
PI	4.31

Corn

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

148.0 MMT

2026/27 · Survey 1 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

139.0 MMT

2026/27 · WASDE #676

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+9.0 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+2.8%

vs. 2025/26 final (144.0 MMT)

Domestic Use

98.2 MMT

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · 68% of production

Exportable Surplus

59.6 MMT

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

11.0%

2025/26 balance · behind survey season · ending stocks / total use · prior 9.4%

Brazil corn — 2026/27 Season · Survey 1 of 12. CONAB is tracking +9.0 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2026/27. At Survey 1, the current season is tracking +2.8% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2026/27

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Corn CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2026/27	2025/26	2024/25
1	148.02 MMT	138.60 MMT	119.74 MMT
2	—	138.84 MMT	119.81 MMT
3	—	138.88 MMT	119.63 MMT
4	—	138.87 MMT	119.55 MMT
5	—	138.45 MMT	122.02 MMT
6	—	138.27 MMT	122.76 MMT
7	—	139.57 MMT	124.74 MMT
8	—	140.17 MMT	126.88 MMT
9	—	140.46 MMT	128.25 MMT
10	—	141.73 MMT	131.97 MMT
11	—	142.96 MMT	137.01 MMT
12	—	144.01 MMT	139.70 MMT

1ª Safra vs. Safrinha Breakdown

Brazil corn split: 1ª Safra (summer crop, teal) and Safrinha (2nd/3rd crop planted after soybeans, gold). The safrinha now accounts for ~75–80% of total corn output.

Corn 1ª Safra vs Safrinha production breakdown

Season	1ª Safra (MMT)	Safrinha (MMT)	Total (MMT)
2017/18	26.81	53.90	80.71
2018/19	25.65	74.40	100.05
2019/20	25.69	76.81	102.50
2020/21	24.74	62.28	87.02
2021/22	24.98	88.29	113.27
2022/23	27.37	104.49	131.86
2023/24	22.96	92.76	115.72
2024/25	24.94	114.76	139.70
2025/26	29.49	114.52	144.01
2026/27	32.10	115.91	148.01

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Corn CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	80.71	82.00	-1.29	WASDE #599
2018/19	100.04	101.00	-0.96	WASDE #611
2019/20	102.50	102.00	+0.50	WASDE #623
2020/21	87.02	87.00	+0.02	WASDE #635
2021/22	113.27	116.00	-2.73	WASDE #647
2022/23	131.87	137.00	-5.13	WASDE #659
2023/24	115.72	119.00	-3.28	WASDE #670
2024/25	139.70	136.00	+3.70	WASDE #676
2025/26	144.01	141.00	+3.01	WASDE #676
2026/27	148.02	139.00	+9.02	WASDE #676

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil corn production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil corn historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2007/08	58.65
2008/09	51.00
2009/10	56.02
2010/11	57.41
2011/12	72.98
2012/13	81.51
2013/14	80.05
2014/15	84.67
2015/16	69.14
2016/17	97.84
2017/18	80.71
2018/19	100.04
2019/20	102.50
2020/21	87.02
2021/22	113.27
2022/23	131.87
2023/24	115.72
2024/25	139.70
2025/26	144.01
2026/27	148.02

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 157.8 MMT of total supply in 2025/26, Brazil consumes 98.2 MMT at home (68% of production), leaving 59.6 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 11.0% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 34.5 MMT in 1999/00 to 98.2 MMT in 2025/26 (+185%), against production of 144.0 MMT. CONAB has not yet published a 2026/27 balance, so the figures below describe 2025/26 — one season behind the production survey above. Balance sheet covers 27 seasons (1999/00 to 2025/26).

Brazil corn supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
1999/00	34.48	0.01	3.59	38.08
2000/01	34.91	5.92	5.60	46.43
2001/02	35.59	2.51	3.14	41.24
2002/03	36.92	4.05	10.39	51.36
2003/04	38.11	4.69	10.02	52.82
2004/05	39.53	0.88	5.21	45.62
2005/06	40.03	4.34	4.36	48.73
2006/07	42.84	10.86	3.20	56.90
2007/08	45.41	7.37	9.72	62.50
2008/09	46.76	7.33	7.81	61.90
2009/10	49.22	10.88	4.11	64.21
2010/11	50.65	9.28	2.35	62.28
2011/12	51.68	22.29	2.13	76.10
2012/13	52.65	26.16	5.72	84.53
2013/14	53.52	20.88	12.16	86.56
2014/15	56.48	30.13	10.53	97.14
2015/16	56.32	18.85	5.23	80.40
2016/17	57.55	30.81	15.74	104.10
2017/18	59.05	23.74	14.56	97.35
2018/19	61.94	41.07	13.19	116.20
2019/20	67.02	34.89	15.31	117.22
2020/21	71.17	20.82	13.52	105.51
2021/22	74.53	46.63	8.10	129.26
2022/23	79.47	54.63	7.20	141.30
2023/24	84.11	38.50	1.77	124.38
2024/25	90.68	41.63	12.47	144.78
2025/26	98.20	43.92	15.65	157.77

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil corn stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
1999/00	10.41
2000/01	13.72
2001/02	8.24
2002/03	25.36
2003/04	23.41
2004/05	12.90
2005/06	9.83
2006/07	5.95
2007/08	18.42
2008/09	14.44
2009/10	6.84
2010/11	3.93
2011/12	2.88
2012/13	7.26
2013/14	16.34
2014/15	12.16
2015/16	6.96
2016/17	17.81
2017/18	17.59
2018/19	12.80
2019/20	15.02
2020/21	14.69
2021/22	6.68
2022/23	5.37
2023/24	1.45
2024/25	9.42
2025/26	11.01

State Breakdown — 2026/27 Survey 1

Brazil state-level corn production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Corn production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	57.90
PR	21.60
MS	13.18
GO	12.40
MG	7.59
RS	6.63
SP	4.96
BA	3.42
MA	3.41
SC	3.34
TO	3.05
PA	2.59

Cotton

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT (WASDE bales × 0.21772)

CONAB Estimate

4.2 MMT

2026/27 · Survey 1 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

4.1 MMT

2026/27 · WASDE #676 · incl. bales conv.

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+0.0 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+0.3%

vs. 2025/26 final (4.1 MMT)

Domestic Use

0.7 MMT

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · 18% of production

Exportable Surplus

5.8 MMT

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · supply less domestic use (exports + carryout)

Stocks-to-Use

73.0%

2024/25 balance · behind survey season · ending stocks / total use · prior 69.2%

Brazil cotton — 2026/27 Season · Survey 1 of 12. CONAB is tracking +0.0 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2026/27. At Survey 1, the current season is tracking +0.3% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2026/27

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Cotton CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2026/27	2025/26	2024/25
1	4.16 MMT	4.03 MMT	3.67 MMT
2	—	4.03 MMT	3.70 MMT
3	—	3.96 MMT	3.69 MMT
4	—	3.82 MMT	3.70 MMT
5	—	3.80 MMT	3.76 MMT
6	—	3.80 MMT	3.82 MMT
7	—	3.84 MMT	3.89 MMT
8	—	3.97 MMT	3.90 MMT
9	—	3.98 MMT	3.91 MMT
10	—	4.06 MMT	3.94 MMT
11	—	4.08 MMT	3.93 MMT
12	—	4.14 MMT	4.06 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Cotton CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	2.01	2.01	-0.00	WASDE #599
2022/23	3.15	2.55	+0.60	WASDE #659
2023/24	3.65	3.17	+0.48	WASDE #670
2024/25	4.06	3.70	+0.36	WASDE #676
2025/26	4.14	4.08	+0.06	WASDE #676
2026/27	4.16	4.14	+0.02	WASDE #676

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil cotton production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil cotton historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2007/08	1.60
2008/09	1.21
2009/10	1.19
2010/11	1.96
2011/12	1.88
2012/13	1.31
2013/14	1.73
2014/15	1.56
2015/16	1.29
2016/17	1.53
2017/18	2.01
2018/19	2.78
2019/20	3.00
2020/21	2.36
2021/22	2.55
2022/23	3.15
2023/24	3.65
2024/25	4.06
2025/26	4.14
2026/27	4.16

Supply & Demand Balance — What's Marketable

Of 6.5 MMT of total supply in 2024/25, Brazil consumes 0.7 MMT at home (18% of production), leaving 5.8 MMT to reach the export market or carry forward. Ending stocks cover 73.0% of total use. Domestic use has gone from 0.9 MMT in 1999/00 to 0.7 MMT in 2024/25 (-19%), against production of 4.1 MMT. CONAB has not yet published a 2026/27 balance, so the figures below describe 2024/25 — one season behind the production survey above. Balance sheet covers 26 seasons (1999/00 to 2024/25).

Brazil cotton supply disposition by season

Season	Domestic use (MMT)	Exports (MMT)	Ending stocks (MMT)	Total supply (MMT)
1999/00	0.89	0.03	0.47	1.39
2000/01	0.86	0.15	0.47	1.48
2001/02	0.81	0.11	0.38	1.30
2002/03	0.83	0.18	0.34	1.35
2003/04	0.90	0.33	0.52	1.75
2004/05	0.95	0.39	0.52	1.86
2005/06	0.98	0.30	0.36	1.64
2006/07	0.99	0.42	0.57	1.98
2007/08	1.00	0.53	0.67	2.20
2008/09	1.00	0.50	0.39	1.89
2009/10	1.04	0.51	0.08	1.63
2010/11	0.86	0.76	0.56	2.18
2011/12	0.84	1.05	0.57	2.46
2012/13	0.88	0.57	0.45	1.90
2013/14	0.81	0.75	0.65	2.21
2014/15	0.67	0.83	0.71	2.21
2015/16	0.64	0.80	0.59	2.03
2016/17	0.69	0.83	0.63	2.15
2017/18	0.70	0.97	0.98	2.65
2018/19	0.72	1.61	1.43	3.76
2019/20	0.69	2.13	1.62	4.44
2020/21	0.72	2.02	1.24	3.98
2021/22	0.68	1.80	1.32	3.80
2022/23	0.71	1.62	2.17	4.50
2023/24	0.69	2.77	2.40	5.86
2024/25	0.72	3.03	2.74	6.49

Ending stocks divided by total use (domestic consumption + exports). A low ratio means the balance sheet is running on pipeline stocks, with little cushion against a production shortfall.

Brazil cotton stocks-to-use ratio by season

Season	Stocks-to-use (%)
1999/00	51.10
2000/01	46.88
2001/02	41.51
2002/03	34.29
2003/04	42.53
2004/05	39.23
2005/06	27.64
2006/07	40.25
2007/08	44.17
2008/09	26.12
2009/10	4.90
2010/11	34.71
2011/12	29.89
2012/13	30.77
2013/14	41.85
2014/15	47.39
2015/16	40.52
2016/17	41.41
2017/18	58.57
2018/19	61.16
2019/20	57.39
2020/21	45.41
2021/22	53.27
2022/23	93.08
2023/24	69.18
2024/25	73.05

State Breakdown — 2026/27 Survey 1

Brazil state-level cotton production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Cotton production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	2.83
BA	0.90
PI	0.09
MG	0.09
MS	0.07
MA	0.07
GO	0.05
TO	0.02
RO	0.01
SP	0.01
CE	0.00
PR	0.00

Corn Ethanol — the Demand Side of the Corn Balance

Brazil · CONAB where published, derived from ANP + CONAB cane elsewhere

Corn Ethanol 2025/26

10.2 bn L

+27.7% vs 2024/25 · conab

CONAB Forecast 2026/27

11.9 bn L

+17.0% vs 2025/26 · forecast

Corn Absorbed

24.8 MMT

at ~410 l/t · 17% of CONAB corn crop

Corn ethanol is the fastest-growing claim on Brazil's corn crop, and it is almost entirely a Mato Grosso story. At 10.2 billion litres it absorbs roughly 24.8 MMT of corn, about 17% of the 148.0 MMT crop CONAB is forecasting above. That is corn which never reaches a port. A record Brazilian crop and a record Brazilian export program are no longer the same statement, and the gap between them is what this line measures. CONAB's 2026/27 forecast is 11.9 bn L, +17.0% — the claim is still growing.

Gold bars are DERIVED — ANP total ethanol minus CONAB cane ethanol — for the safras CONAB does not publish a corn figure for. Teal is CONAB's own number; blue is CONAB's forecast. The derived years reconcile to CONAB within about 2% where both exist, and the earliest bars sit near zero (occasionally just below) because Brazil made almost no corn ethanol then and the derivation's error bar is visible at that scale.

Brazil corn ethanol by safra with source

Safra	Corn ethanol (bn L)	Source
2012/13	-0.04	residual
2013/14	-0.21	residual
2014/15	-0.14	residual
2015/16	0.06	residual
2016/17	0.34	residual
2017/18	1.43	residual
2018/19	0.56	residual
2019/20	1.75	residual
2020/21	2.65	residual
2021/22	3.14	residual
2022/23	3.94	residual
2023/24	6.32	residual
2024/25	7.96	residual
2025/26	10.17	conab
2026/27	11.91	conab_forecast