CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates

CONAB Brazil Crop Estimates — Monthly Survey Tracker

Divergence between Brazil's official crop agency (CONAB) and the USDA WASDE is the analytical anchor. All production in MMT. Cotton WASDE bales converted at 0.21772 MMT per million 480-lb bales.

Soybeans

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

180.1 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 8 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

180.0 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #671

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+0.1 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+5.0%

vs. 2024/25 final (171.5 MMT)

Brazil soybeans — 2025/26 Season · Survey 8 of 12. CONAB is tracking +0.1 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 8, the current season is tracking +5.0% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Soybeans CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	177.64 MMT	166.05 MMT	162.00 MMT
2	177.60 MMT	166.14 MMT	162.42 MMT
3	177.12 MMT	166.21 MMT	160.18 MMT
4	176.12 MMT	166.33 MMT	155.62 MMT
5	177.99 MMT	166.01 MMT	149.40 MMT
6	177.85 MMT	167.37 MMT	146.86 MMT
7	179.15 MMT	167.87 MMT	146.52 MMT
8	180.13 MMT	168.34 MMT	147.68 MMT
9	—	169.61 MMT	147.35 MMT
10	—	169.49 MMT	147.34 MMT
11	—	169.66 MMT	147.38 MMT
12	—	171.47 MMT	151.28 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

CONAB final/latest survey estimate vs. USDA WASDE Brazil production estimate per marketing year. Divergence (red dashed line, right axis) = CONAB minus WASDE. Positive gap = CONAB tracking above WASDE; negative = CONAB tracking below.

Soybeans CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	123.26	122.00	+1.26	WASDE #599
2018/19	119.72	119.70	+0.02	WASDE #611
2019/20	124.84	128.50	-3.66	WASDE #623
2020/21	139.39	139.50	-0.11	WASDE #635
2021/22	130.83	130.50	+0.33	WASDE #647
2022/23	159.15	162.00	-2.85	WASDE #659
2023/24	151.28	154.50	-3.22	WASDE #670
2024/25	171.47	172.50	-1.03	WASDE #671
2025/26	180.13	180.00	+0.13	WASDE #671

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil soybeans production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil soybeans historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	58.39
2007/08	60.02
2008/09	57.17
2009/10	68.69
2010/11	75.32
2011/12	66.38
2012/13	81.50
2013/14	86.17
2014/15	97.09
2015/16	95.70
2016/17	115.03
2017/18	123.26
2018/19	119.72
2019/20	124.84
2020/21	139.39
2021/22	130.83
2022/23	159.15
2023/24	151.28
2024/25	171.47
2025/26	180.13

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 8

Brazil state-level soybeans production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Soybeans production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	51.62
PR	21.55
GO	20.15
RS	18.63
MS	15.75
BA	9.53
MG	9.16
TO	6.11
MA	5.47
PA	5.40
SP	5.37
PI	4.40

Corn

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT

CONAB Estimate

140.2 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 8 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

135.0 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #671

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

+5.2 MMT

CONAB tracking above WASDE

vs. Prior Season

+0.3%

vs. 2024/25 final (139.7 MMT)

Brazil corn — 2025/26 Season · Survey 8 of 12. CONAB is tracking +5.2 MMT above the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 8, the current season is tracking +0.3% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Corn CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	138.60 MMT	119.74 MMT	119.40 MMT
2	138.84 MMT	119.81 MMT	119.07 MMT
3	138.88 MMT	119.63 MMT	118.53 MMT
4	138.87 MMT	119.55 MMT	117.60 MMT
5	138.45 MMT	122.02 MMT	113.70 MMT
6	138.27 MMT	122.76 MMT	112.75 MMT
7	139.57 MMT	124.74 MMT	110.96 MMT
8	140.17 MMT	126.88 MMT	111.64 MMT
9	—	128.25 MMT	114.14 MMT
10	—	131.97 MMT	115.86 MMT
11	—	137.01 MMT	115.65 MMT
12	—	139.70 MMT	115.72 MMT

1ª Safra vs. Safrinha Breakdown

Brazil corn split: 1ª Safra (summer crop, teal) and Safrinha (2nd/3rd crop planted after soybeans, gold). The safrinha now accounts for ~75–80% of total corn output.

Corn 1ª Safra vs Safrinha production breakdown

Season	1ª Safra (MMT)	Safrinha (MMT)	Total (MMT)
2017/18	26.81	53.90	80.71
2018/19	25.65	74.40	100.05
2019/20	25.69	76.81	102.50
2020/21	24.74	62.28	87.02
2021/22	24.98	88.29	113.27
2022/23	27.37	104.49	131.86
2023/24	22.96	92.76	115.72
2024/25	24.94	114.76	139.70
2025/26	28.46	111.71	140.17

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Corn CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	80.71	82.00	-1.29	WASDE #599
2018/19	100.04	101.00	-0.96	WASDE #611
2019/20	102.50	102.00	+0.50	WASDE #623
2020/21	87.02	87.00	+0.02	WASDE #635
2021/22	113.27	116.00	-2.73	WASDE #647
2022/23	131.87	137.00	-5.13	WASDE #659
2023/24	115.72	119.00	-3.28	WASDE #670
2024/25	139.70	136.00	+3.70	WASDE #671
2025/26	140.17	135.00	+5.17	WASDE #671

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil corn production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil corn historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	51.37
2007/08	58.65
2008/09	51.00
2009/10	56.02
2010/11	57.41
2011/12	72.98
2012/13	81.51
2013/14	80.05
2014/15	84.67
2015/16	69.14
2016/17	97.84
2017/18	80.71
2018/19	100.04
2019/20	102.50
2020/21	87.02
2021/22	113.27
2022/23	131.87
2023/24	115.72
2024/25	139.70
2025/26	140.17

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 8

Brazil state-level corn production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Corn production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	54.60
PR	21.09
MS	12.59
GO	11.88
MG	7.19
RS	5.93
SP	4.42
BA	3.43
SC	3.18
MA	3.07
TO	2.80
PA	2.46

Cotton

CONAB · USDA WASDE Brazil · Units: MMT (WASDE bales × 0.21772)

CONAB Estimate

4.0 MMT

2025/26 · Survey 8 of 12

USDA WASDE (Brazil)

4.2 MMT

2025/26 · WASDE #671 · incl. bales conv.

Divergence (CONAB−WASDE)

-0.3 MMT

CONAB tracking below WASDE

vs. Prior Season

-2.2%

vs. 2024/25 final (4.1 MMT)

Brazil cotton — 2025/26 Season · Survey 8 of 12. CONAB is tracking -0.3 MMT below the USDA WASDE estimate for 2025/26. At Survey 8, the current season is tracking -2.2% vs. the prior season's final estimate.

Survey Progression — 2025/26

CONAB monthly crop estimates overlaid by season. X = survey number (1 = first estimate, 12 = final). Earlier surveys are preliminary; later surveys converge to the final estimate.

Cotton CONAB survey progression by season

Survey	2025/26	2024/25	2023/24
1	4.03 MMT	3.67 MMT	3.00 MMT
2	4.03 MMT	3.70 MMT	3.04 MMT
3	3.96 MMT	3.69 MMT	3.06 MMT
4	3.82 MMT	3.70 MMT	3.10 MMT
5	3.80 MMT	3.76 MMT	3.29 MMT
6	3.80 MMT	3.82 MMT	3.56 MMT
7	3.84 MMT	3.89 MMT	3.60 MMT
8	3.97 MMT	3.90 MMT	3.64 MMT
9	—	3.91 MMT	3.66 MMT
10	—	3.94 MMT	3.64 MMT
11	—	3.93 MMT	3.64 MMT
12	—	4.06 MMT	3.65 MMT

CONAB vs. USDA WASDE — Divergence

Cotton CONAB vs WASDE Brazil production divergence

Season	CONAB (MMT)	WASDE (MMT)	Divergence (MMT)	WASDE #
2017/18	2.01	2.01	-0.00	WASDE #599
2022/23	3.15	2.55	+0.60	WASDE #659
2023/24	3.65	3.17	+0.48	WASDE #670
2024/25	4.06	3.70	+0.36	WASDE #671
2025/26	3.97	4.25	-0.27	WASDE #671

Historical Production (Brazil)

Brazil cotton production history. Source: CONAB monthly survey series (historical) plus levantamento final for recent seasons.

Brazil cotton historical production (last 20 seasons)

Season	MMT
2006/07	1.52
2007/08	1.60
2008/09	1.21
2009/10	1.19
2010/11	1.96
2011/12	1.88
2012/13	1.31
2013/14	1.73
2014/15	1.56
2015/16	1.29
2016/17	1.53
2017/18	2.01
2018/19	2.78
2019/20	3.00
2020/21	2.36
2021/22	2.55
2022/23	3.15
2023/24	3.65
2024/25	4.06
2025/26	3.97

State Breakdown — 2025/26 Survey 8

Brazil state-level cotton production for the most recent survey. Top producing states shown.

Cotton production by state, latest survey

State	MMT
MT	2.75
BA	0.83
MG	0.08
PI	0.08
MS	0.07
MA	0.05
GO	0.05
TO	0.02
SP	0.01
RO	0.01
CE	0.01
PR	0.00