Cotton Market Intelligence
US · COT Positioning · Drought · On-Call · Export Sales · PSD
Week of June 12, 2026 Data: CFTC · USDA · Drought Monitor
ICE Cotton No. 2 · US Focus
Cotton Market Intelligence | US — Week of June 12, 2026 Data through: COT: 2026-06-02 · PSD: 2026-06-08 · Drought: 2026-06-02 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/cotton_market_intelligence_0f4f74e2.html COT POSITIONING — COTTON NO. 2: Managed Money +52.4k cts 69th pct Open Interest 514k cts FUNDAMENTALS: World STU 59.0% US Ending Stocks 3,900k DROUGHT — HIGH PLAINS: Texas D2+ 31% ON-CALL: Net Unfixed -7,241.0
COT: 2026-06-02 PSD: 2026-06-08 Drought: 2026-06-02 On-Call: 2026-06-04
MM Net Position
+52.4k cts
Cotton No. 2 · 69th pct · 2026-06-02
MM Gross Long
74,155 cts
Gross long · 83th pct
MM Gross Short
21,753 cts
Gross short · 57th pct
MM Change WoW
-1.8k cts
Week-over-week · 2026-06-02
World STU
59.0%
MY 2026 · USDA PSD
Ex-China STU
28.8%
MY 2026/27 · WASDE #671 · 10th pct
Texas D2+ Drought
31%
D2+ coverage · 2026-06-02
On-Call Net Unfixed
-7,241.0
Contracts · 2026-06-04
US Ending Stocks
3,900k
480-lb bales · MY 2026
As of 2026-06-02, managed money holds a net +52.4k contract long position (69th percentile — moderate). Week-over-week, managed money reduced 1.8k contracts. Open interest is elevated at 514k contracts (100th pct).

CFTC disaggregated COT — Cotton No. 2 ICE Futures U.S. · Combined futures+options

Cotton No.2 COT — managed money and commercial net
DateMM Net (k cts)Comm Net (k cts)OI (k cts)
2026-02-17-79.5k54.3k391.4k
2026-02-24-65.4k26.1k380.2k
2026-03-03-72.9k25.5k385.6k
2026-03-10-66.8k18.3k394.4k
2026-03-17-40.2k-24.3k427.1k
2026-03-24-33.4k-27.6k416.4k
2026-03-31-12.2k-55.5k455.7k
2026-04-07-2.0k-67.1k467.1k
2026-04-1416.8k-88.0k427.2k
2026-04-2134.5k-102.3k465.7k
2026-04-2838.4k-101.8k459.6k
2026-05-0551.2k-119.2k496.7k
2026-05-1259.6k-122.2k515.0k
2026-05-1962.0k-110.6k503.2k
2026-05-2654.2k-105.7k501.9k
2026-06-0252.4k-102.1k513.6k

Producers/merchants + swap dealers · short = hedged supply · inverted from MM

Managed money gross long contracts — elevated readings signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Managed money gross short contracts — elevated readings represent potential short-covering fuel; a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Nearby ICE Cotton No. 2 futures (CT=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Cotton No. 2 nearby futures price history
DatePrice (¢/lb)
2024-01-0180.19
2024-01-0881.31
2024-01-1583.95
2024-01-2284.37
2024-01-2987.11
2024-02-0591.78
2024-02-1293.87
2024-02-1994.93
2024-02-2697.56
2024-03-0495.28
2024-03-1193.94
2024-03-1891.53
2024-03-2591.38
2024-04-0186.25
2024-04-0882.62
2024-04-1578.69
2024-04-2279.40
2024-04-2977.36
2024-05-0677.31
2024-05-1375.89
2024-05-2080.52
2024-05-2776.15
2024-06-0373.84
2024-06-1070.97
2024-06-1768.19
2024-06-2469.81
2024-07-0167.31
2024-07-0868.92
2024-07-1569.98
2024-07-2266.07
2024-07-2967.18
2024-08-0567.09
2024-08-1266.46
2024-08-1971.29
2024-08-2669.79
2024-09-0267.12
2024-09-0969.48
2024-09-1672.21
2024-09-2373.54
2024-09-3073.03
2024-10-0772.21
2024-10-1470.99
2024-10-2170.66
2024-10-2870.17
2024-11-0470.98
2024-11-1166.80
2024-11-1871.65
2024-11-2573.35
2024-12-0271.40
2024-12-0969.27
2024-12-1668.06
2024-12-2368.89
2024-12-3067.66
2025-01-0667.01
2025-01-1367.60
2025-01-2067.61
2025-01-2765.88
2025-02-0365.63
2025-02-1067.11
2025-02-1766.08
2025-02-2463.88
2025-03-0364.76
2025-03-1067.37
2025-03-1765.27
2025-03-2466.90
2025-03-3163.36
2025-04-0765.89
2025-04-1466.32
2025-04-2166.85
2025-04-2870.18
2025-05-0566.61
2025-05-1264.89
2025-05-1966.11
2025-05-2665.06
2025-06-0265.62
2025-06-0965.36
2025-06-1664.04
2025-06-2367.52
2025-06-3065.66
2025-07-0766.20
2025-07-1467.12
2025-07-2167.01
2025-07-2864.42
2025-08-0465.32
2025-08-1166.10
2025-08-1866.43
2025-08-2565.21
2025-09-0164.39
2025-09-0865.19
2025-09-1564.94
2025-09-2263.95
2025-09-2962.86
2025-10-0663.84
2025-10-1364.28
2025-10-2064.20
2025-10-2765.54
2025-11-0363.62
2025-11-1062.49
2025-11-1761.35
2025-11-2462.91
2025-12-0162.13
2025-12-0863.83
2025-12-1563.75
2025-12-2264.49
2025-12-2964.01
2026-01-0564.41
2026-01-1264.66
2026-01-1963.81
2026-01-2663.17
2026-02-0261.06
2026-02-0962.11
2026-02-1663.03
2026-02-2363.61
2026-03-0263.19
2026-03-0965.85
2026-03-1667.31
2026-03-2369.46
2026-03-3070.92
2026-04-0673.22
2026-04-1377.40
2026-04-2077.00
2026-04-2781.85
2026-05-0484.73
2026-05-1180.61
2026-05-1877.42
2026-05-2576.15
2026-06-0173.75
2026-06-0877.87

Options-only open interest by trader category. Teal = managed money options net (spec directional bets via options). Gold = swap dealer options net (dealer intermediation). Red = producer/commercial options net (negative = producers bought puts → dealer sold puts). White dotted = SPRT percentile rank vs. full history. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning = structural conditions for amplified price moves.

Cotton No. 2 structural hedging pressure options positioning
DateMM Options ('000)Swap Options ('000)Producer Options ('000)Pressure Rank
2024-06-11-32.8+36.5-21.986th
2024-06-18-44.7+44.5-18.690th
2024-06-25-36.7+45.5-24.490th
2024-07-02+0.8+0.5-2.219th
2024-07-09+0.9+0.8-2.422th
2024-07-16+0.9+0.5-2.218th
2024-07-23+1.0+0.5-2.520th
2024-07-30+1.1+0.9-3.125th
2024-08-06+1.0+1.1-3.326th
2024-08-13+1.4-0.3-3.224th
2024-08-20+0.9-1.0-2.421th
2024-08-27+1.0-2.7-0.823th
2024-09-03+1.0-2.9-0.723th
2024-09-10+1.1-2.2-0.718th
2024-09-17+2.0-3.5-1.830th
2024-09-24+2.8-4.2-2.435th
2024-10-01+3.0-5.3-2.236th
2024-10-08+2.7-5.1-2.936th
2024-10-15+2.7-4.7-2.534th
2024-10-22+2.9-5.3-2.836th
2024-10-29+2.2-4.8-3.034th
2024-11-05+2.7-4.6-4.036th
2024-11-12+3.1-4.8-3.938th
2024-11-19+2.7-4.0-3.036th
2024-11-26+2.4-4.5-4.238th
2024-12-03+2.6-4.3-6.344th
2024-12-10+2.9-2.0-7.340th
2024-12-17+2.8-0.4-8.037th
2024-12-24+2.6+0.6-8.138th
2024-12-31+2.6+0.9-8.440th
2025-01-07+2.6+1.0-8.539th
2025-01-14+2.4+1.9-9.140th
2025-01-21+1.9+1.8-10.039th
2025-01-28+2.4+2.6-12.146th
2025-02-04+1.8+3.8-14.852th
2025-02-11-0.3+8.4-18.356th
2025-02-18-3.6+9.8-17.258th
2025-02-25-2.3+11.2-20.060th
2025-03-04-3.3+12.2-18.559th
2025-03-11-6.9+15.2-19.264th
2025-03-18-7.8+17.5-21.766th
2025-03-25-8.7+20.8-23.667th
2025-04-01-7.4+19.3-27.466th
2025-04-08-11.2+23.6-22.469th
2025-04-15-14.2+21.7-17.171th
2025-04-22-13.0+21.6-17.471th
2025-04-29-10.2+22.6-20.272th
2025-05-06-9.4+24.5-19.971th
2025-05-13-15.0+28.6-19.674th
2025-05-20-18.2+32.5-21.977th
2025-05-27-22.4+33.8-21.079th
2025-06-03-30.8+35.2-17.180th
2025-06-10-48.3+38.6-7.584th
2025-06-17-50.9+42.2-3.687th
2025-06-24-48.1+42.7-7.789th
2025-07-01+0.5-1.4-0.412th
2025-07-08+0.5-1.8+0.113th
2025-07-15+0.5-2.1+0.114th
2025-07-22+0.7-1.5+0.011th
2025-07-29+1.0-1.8-0.114th
2025-08-05+0.7-1.4-1.215th
2025-08-12+0.2-2.2-1.015th
2025-08-19+0.4-2.4-1.519th
2025-08-26+0.7-2.3-1.822th
2025-09-02+0.8-2.3-1.318th
2025-09-09+1.2-2.5-1.322th
2025-09-16+1.5-3.3-1.326th
2025-09-23+1.7-3.3-1.426th
2025-09-30+1.6-3.5-1.626th
2025-10-07+1.4-2.8-0.818th
2025-10-14+1.2-1.5-0.913th
2025-10-21+1.1-2.6-1.318th
2025-10-28+0.4-3.2-1.116th
2025-11-04+0.1-2.3-1.112th
2025-11-10+0.0-1.9-1.212th
2025-11-18+0.9+0.6-3.519th
2025-11-25+0.6+2.2-4.828th
2025-12-02+0.0+1.0-3.215th
2025-12-09+0.1+0.8-4.018th
2025-12-16-0.0+1.2-4.320th
2025-12-23-0.5+0.3-5.724th
2025-12-30+0.5+0.1-5.824th
2026-01-06+0.9-1.8-7.531th
2026-01-13+2.5-1.3-7.232th
2026-01-20+3.8-0.6-8.133th
2026-01-27+4.5+2.3-11.239th
2026-02-03+3.9+5.0-12.542th
2026-02-10+1.2+10.4-13.552th
2026-02-17+1.0+13.3-15.355th
2026-02-24+2.4+10.7-18.756th
2026-03-03+2.8+13.0-22.859th
2026-03-10+2.8+16.3-26.862th
2026-03-17+6.1+14.0-33.063th
2026-03-24+9.2+17.4-39.867th
2026-03-31+20.2+13.5-51.870th
2026-04-07+23.0+13.0-53.170th
2026-04-14+28.1+11.3-59.374th
2026-04-21+43.2+7.2-68.277th
2026-04-28+45.1+7.1-71.478th
2026-05-05+54.8+2.8-82.079th
2026-05-12+58.1+5.1-92.080th
2026-05-19+56.1+11.9-94.882th
2026-05-26+57.1+12.0-100.484th
2026-06-02+58.8+10.9-112.385th
US cotton exports are the primary demand driver. China typically absorbs 30–40% of annual US export sales. A pace running ahead of USDA's projection implies potential upward revision at the next WASDE; a slow pace signals demand risk. Marketing year runs August–July.

USDA FAS Export Sales · Outstanding = committed but not yet shipped · Large China outstanding = strong forward demand · Published Thursdays

US cotton export sales — outstanding commitments and weekly shipments
WeekOutstanding Sales (k bales)Weekly Exports (k bales)China Outstanding (k bales)
2026-04-233,302385122
2026-04-303,098328106
2026-05-072,85629080
2026-05-142,69828963
2026-05-212,53431870
2026-05-282,45126955

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · % Good + Excellent combined · Values above 60% signal favourable crop development; below 40% indicates stress

As of 2026-06-02, the High Plains cotton belt (TX/OK/KS) shows 34% D2+ drought coverage — moderate drought presence. Texas (≈40% of US production): 31% in D2+.

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · TX/OK/KS average — Texas represents ~40% of US cotton production

High Plains Cotton Belt — USDM Drought Coverage (TX/OK/KS) — weekly USDM coverage
DateD0D1D2D3D4D2+
2025-12-2324.722.67.54.40.112.0
2025-12-3023.526.77.64.60.112.3
2026-01-0619.132.210.35.30.115.7
2026-01-1316.628.810.17.20.117.4
2026-01-2016.828.411.48.10.119.6
2026-01-2717.429.010.77.70.118.4
2026-02-0322.927.713.08.20.121.3
2026-02-1024.228.513.99.00.123.0
2026-02-1725.827.314.68.60.223.4
2026-02-2418.434.515.19.80.525.4
2026-03-0316.433.121.89.91.032.6
2026-03-1018.032.420.59.81.031.4
2026-03-1718.633.921.410.01.132.6
2026-03-2420.129.825.413.71.440.4
2026-03-3115.828.128.019.81.649.4
2026-04-0714.332.229.217.10.947.2
2026-04-1410.926.933.415.90.649.9
2026-04-2112.028.729.115.60.545.2
2026-04-2813.824.928.217.40.546.1
2026-05-0514.724.726.218.50.244.9
2026-05-1214.526.224.218.11.343.6
2026-05-1915.125.621.019.91.642.6
2026-05-2617.524.220.418.82.041.2
2026-06-0218.527.415.614.53.633.7

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · Southeast Delta states average — run drought_monitor.py --update to populate

Southeast Cotton Belt — USDM Drought Coverage (GA/MS/AL/AR/TN/NC/SC) — weekly USDM coverage
DateD0D1D2D3D4D2+
2026-03-1016.833.034.113.50.448.0
2026-03-1716.233.332.913.10.746.6
2026-03-2413.234.732.713.91.648.3
2026-03-3111.427.333.522.33.259.0
2026-04-078.127.534.423.94.062.2
2026-04-144.016.645.828.55.179.4
2026-04-210.07.642.943.75.892.4
2026-04-280.76.837.747.67.292.5
2026-05-051.711.534.045.27.586.8
2026-05-122.814.034.640.87.883.2
2026-05-192.214.432.143.08.383.4
2026-05-269.222.538.223.86.368.3
2026-06-0214.228.429.918.81.149.8
Polyester is cotton's primary synthetic competitor. Crude oil is polyester's main feedstock — when crude is cheap, polyester production costs fall and textile mills have more incentive to substitute away from cotton. The 3-2-1 crack spread proxies refining margins; a narrow spread signals cheap refined product costs (bearish cotton demand), while a wide spread suggests higher synthetic fiber costs (supportive for cotton).

3-2-1 crack spread = (2×RBOB + ULSD − 3×WTI) / 3 · Crude is the primary feedstock for polyester, cotton's main synthetic competitor · Cheap crude → cheap polyester → risk to cotton demand

As of 2026-06-04, unfixed call sales total 67,627.0 contracts vs. 74,868.0 unfixed call purchases — net -7,241.0 (bearish mechanical selling pressure). Unfixed call sales increased by 3,482.0 contracts week-over-week.

CFTC Cotton On-Call · Unfixed = committed to buy/sell at a futures price to be fixed later · Large unfixed sales = pending mechanical buying pressure · Published Fridays

CFTC Cotton On-Call unfixed positions
Report DateUnfixed SalesUnfixed PurchasesNet Unfixed
2026-01-2252,321.096,362.0-44,041.0
2026-01-2950,908.098,867.0-47,959.0
2026-02-0548,453.0100,205.0-51,752.0
2026-02-1245,712.0101,471.0-55,759.0
2026-02-1948,643.097,024.0-48,381.0
2026-02-2648,522.088,496.0-39,974.0
2026-03-0555,378.088,018.0-32,640.0
2026-03-1256,853.085,216.0-28,363.0
2026-03-1963,052.084,217.0-21,165.0
2026-03-2661,192.081,271.0-20,079.0
2026-04-0262,412.078,514.0-16,102.0
2026-04-0958,320.074,331.0-16,011.0
2026-04-1662,095.073,337.0-11,242.0
2026-04-2357,879.069,366.0-11,487.0
2026-04-3056,213.069,347.0-13,134.0
2026-05-0760,897.070,072.0-9,175.0
2026-05-1464,840.071,385.0-6,545.0
2026-05-2165,313.071,678.0-6,365.0
2026-05-2864,145.072,266.0-8,121.0
2026-06-0467,627.074,868.0-7,241.0
Where is the unfixed exposure sitting? A concentration of unfixed call sales in the front one or two contracts shortens the fixation window — mills must price against the market before first notice day, creating urgency that does not exist for distant contracts.

Snapshot as of 2026-06-04 · Bars show where unfixed exposure is concentrated across delivery months · Front-heavy bars = shorter fixation window

On-call unfixed positions by contract month
ContractUnfixed SalesUnfixed PurchasesNet
July 202614,6009,053+5,547
December 202623,98537,211-13,226
March 202712,1325,596+6,536
May 20274,277427+3,850
July 20277,79822+7,776
December 20272,91720,413-17,496
March 20281,26888+1,180
May 202851850+468
July 20281320+132
December 202801,390-1,390
December 20290508-508
December 2030058-58
December 2031052-52
Rising front-2 share means the market's unfixed exposure is concentrating into near-term contracts. When a large share of unfixed call sales sits in the front two months and the price is trending, mills may be forced to fix simultaneously — amplifying directional moves or creating a squeeze. Compare the pressure line against the CT price to see prior setups.

Front-2 = the two nearest active delivery months · Rising share = unfixed exposure concentrating into near-term contracts · High concentration near delivery with large unfixed sales = mechanical squeeze risk

On-call front-2 fixation pressure history
Report DateFront-2 Share
2025-06-1223.7%
2025-06-209.8%
2025-06-262.9%
2025-07-0352.6%
2025-07-1053.4%
2025-07-1750.0%
2025-07-2449.1%
2025-07-3148.4%
2025-08-0745.3%
2025-08-1443.5%
2025-08-2143.8%
2025-08-2843.8%
2025-09-0442.1%
2025-09-1139.9%
2025-09-1838.0%
2025-09-2536.6%
2025-10-0261.6%
2025-10-0959.8%
2025-10-1657.0%
2025-10-2355.1%
2025-10-3052.6%
2025-11-0651.0%
2025-11-1347.0%
2025-11-2042.8%
2025-11-2744.7%
2025-12-0459.4%
2025-12-1160.1%
2025-12-1861.9%
2025-12-2960.9%
2026-01-0261.0%
2026-01-0859.1%
2026-01-1558.6%
2026-01-2257.8%
2026-01-2951.6%
2026-02-0545.9%
2026-02-1241.1%
2026-02-1942.3%
2026-02-2639.8%
2026-03-0563.3%
2026-03-1256.2%
2026-03-1951.5%
2026-03-2650.5%
2026-04-0248.6%
2026-04-0941.2%
2026-04-1642.0%
2026-04-2334.7%
2026-04-3030.1%
2026-05-0733.3%
2026-05-1430.6%
2026-05-2125.8%
2026-05-2823.8%
2026-06-0421.6%
How to read On-Call: Mill buyers who purchase cotton "on call" commit to a delivery month but fix the price later against the futures market. Large unfixed call sales = a queue of pending buy orders that must eventually price against the market — mechanical buying pressure that can create price floors or accelerate rallies. Unfixed call purchases work in reverse (pending selling). The net figure (sales minus purchases) gives the directional bias of pending fixation activity.
MY 2026: World stocks-to-use is 59.0% — near-average by historical standards. US ending stocks are 3,900k bales.

USDA FAS PSD · Upland Cotton · 1000 480-lb bales · Updated on WASDE release days

Cotton PSD — world stocks-to-use and US ending stocks by year
Market YearWorld STU %US Ending Stocks (k bales)
196040.8%7,056
196142.8%7,699
196252.4%11,136
196354.5%12,351
196456.6%14,249
196560.5%17,028
196650.8%12,344
196742.0%6,584
196842.5%6,544
196940.0%5,843
197038.2%4,203
197138.5%3,258
197241.2%4,221
197345.1%3,808
197458.5%5,708
197542.0%3,681
197637.2%2,928
197742.0%5,347
197834.6%3,958
197932.2%3,000
198031.7%2,668
198140.8%6,632
198238.0%7,937
198335.4%2,775
198459.5%4,102
198563.2%9,348
198643.1%5,026
198738.8%5,771
198836.4%7,092
198928.7%3,000
199032.1%2,344
199143.0%3,704
199240.1%4,662
199332.6%3,530
199437.9%2,650
199546.6%2,609
199650.7%3,971
199756.4%3,887
199862.3%3,939
199956.4%3,915
200053.5%6,000
200158.3%7,448
200248.5%5,385
200346.8%3,450
200453.6%5,495
200552.2%6,069
200648.2%9,479
200746.9%10,051
200853.3%6,337
200936.5%2,947
201037.4%2,600
201164.2%3,350
201280.6%3,800
201388.2%2,350
201491.9%3,650
201577.3%3,800
201665.3%2,750
201760.8%4,200
201859.5%4,950
201979.5%7,450
202058.4%3,650
202161.5%4,600
202267.3%4,650
202364.0%3,150
202462.6%4,000
202564.3%4,400
202659.0%3,900
Ex-China cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio (STU) — 2026/27: 28.8% (10th percentile — historically tight). China holds approximately 40% of world cotton stocks as non-tradeable state reserves. Ex-China STU reflects the supply tightness that globally-trading mills and merchants face.

USDA WASDE · Cotton · World and World Less China STU (teal = World, gold = Ex-China). China holds ~40% of world stocks as non-tradeable state reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Cotton stocks-to-use World and Ex-China by marketing year
MYWorld STU (%)Ex-China STU (%)
07/0838.8
08/0943.2
09/1030.5
10/1133.1
11/1249.3
12/1358.3
13/1468.2
14/1576.2
15/1664.5
16/1752.2
17/1849.134.7
18/1949.336.2
19/2067.053.9
20/2150.137.0
21/2247.930.5
22/2350.838.2
23/2446.130.5
24/2546.132.4
25/2647.132.9
26/2743.528.8

USDA WASDE · Cotton · Ex-China ending stocks ÷ (Brazil + Australia + US production). Denominator represents commercially-traded origins; ratio reflects real pipeline tightness independent of non-tradeable Chinese state reserves.

Cotton Ex-China ending stocks as a percent of Brazil, Australia, and US production
MYEx-China Stocks / BR+AU+US Prod (%)
17/18122.4
18/19131.9
19/20175.3
20/21171.8
21/22111.9
22/23133.0
23/24115.6
24/25107.2
25/26107.1
26/27105.8