CFTC disaggregated COT — Cotton No. 2 ICE Futures U.S. · Combined futures+options
| Date | MM Net (k cts) | Comm Net (k cts) | OI (k cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | -79.5k | 54.3k | 391.4k |
| 2026-02-24 | -65.4k | 26.1k | 380.2k |
| 2026-03-03 | -72.9k | 25.5k | 385.6k |
| 2026-03-10 | -66.8k | 18.3k | 394.4k |
| 2026-03-17 | -40.2k | -24.3k | 427.1k |
| 2026-03-24 | -33.4k | -27.6k | 416.4k |
| 2026-03-31 | -12.2k | -55.5k | 455.7k |
| 2026-04-07 | -2.0k | -67.1k | 467.1k |
| 2026-04-14 | 16.8k | -88.0k | 427.2k |
| 2026-04-21 | 34.5k | -102.3k | 465.7k |
| 2026-04-28 | 38.4k | -101.8k | 459.6k |
| 2026-05-05 | 51.2k | -119.2k | 496.7k |
| 2026-05-12 | 59.6k | -122.2k | 515.0k |
| 2026-05-19 | 62.0k | -110.6k | 503.2k |
| 2026-05-26 | 54.2k | -105.7k | 501.9k |
| 2026-06-02 | 52.4k | -102.1k | 513.6k |
Producers/merchants + swap dealers · short = hedged supply · inverted from MM
Managed money gross long contracts — elevated readings signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
Managed money gross short contracts — elevated readings represent potential short-covering fuel; a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.
Nearby ICE Cotton No. 2 futures (CT=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
| Date | Price (¢/lb) |
|---|---|
| 2024-01-01 | 80.19 |
| 2024-01-08 | 81.31 |
| 2024-01-15 | 83.95 |
| 2024-01-22 | 84.37 |
| 2024-01-29 | 87.11 |
| 2024-02-05 | 91.78 |
| 2024-02-12 | 93.87 |
| 2024-02-19 | 94.93 |
| 2024-02-26 | 97.56 |
| 2024-03-04 | 95.28 |
| 2024-03-11 | 93.94 |
| 2024-03-18 | 91.53 |
| 2024-03-25 | 91.38 |
| 2024-04-01 | 86.25 |
| 2024-04-08 | 82.62 |
| 2024-04-15 | 78.69 |
| 2024-04-22 | 79.40 |
| 2024-04-29 | 77.36 |
| 2024-05-06 | 77.31 |
| 2024-05-13 | 75.89 |
| 2024-05-20 | 80.52 |
| 2024-05-27 | 76.15 |
| 2024-06-03 | 73.84 |
| 2024-06-10 | 70.97 |
| 2024-06-17 | 68.19 |
| 2024-06-24 | 69.81 |
| 2024-07-01 | 67.31 |
| 2024-07-08 | 68.92 |
| 2024-07-15 | 69.98 |
| 2024-07-22 | 66.07 |
| 2024-07-29 | 67.18 |
| 2024-08-05 | 67.09 |
| 2024-08-12 | 66.46 |
| 2024-08-19 | 71.29 |
| 2024-08-26 | 69.79 |
| 2024-09-02 | 67.12 |
| 2024-09-09 | 69.48 |
| 2024-09-16 | 72.21 |
| 2024-09-23 | 73.54 |
| 2024-09-30 | 73.03 |
| 2024-10-07 | 72.21 |
| 2024-10-14 | 70.99 |
| 2024-10-21 | 70.66 |
| 2024-10-28 | 70.17 |
| 2024-11-04 | 70.98 |
| 2024-11-11 | 66.80 |
| 2024-11-18 | 71.65 |
| 2024-11-25 | 73.35 |
| 2024-12-02 | 71.40 |
| 2024-12-09 | 69.27 |
| 2024-12-16 | 68.06 |
| 2024-12-23 | 68.89 |
| 2024-12-30 | 67.66 |
| 2025-01-06 | 67.01 |
| 2025-01-13 | 67.60 |
| 2025-01-20 | 67.61 |
| 2025-01-27 | 65.88 |
| 2025-02-03 | 65.63 |
| 2025-02-10 | 67.11 |
| 2025-02-17 | 66.08 |
| 2025-02-24 | 63.88 |
| 2025-03-03 | 64.76 |
| 2025-03-10 | 67.37 |
| 2025-03-17 | 65.27 |
| 2025-03-24 | 66.90 |
| 2025-03-31 | 63.36 |
| 2025-04-07 | 65.89 |
| 2025-04-14 | 66.32 |
| 2025-04-21 | 66.85 |
| 2025-04-28 | 70.18 |
| 2025-05-05 | 66.61 |
| 2025-05-12 | 64.89 |
| 2025-05-19 | 66.11 |
| 2025-05-26 | 65.06 |
| 2025-06-02 | 65.62 |
| 2025-06-09 | 65.36 |
| 2025-06-16 | 64.04 |
| 2025-06-23 | 67.52 |
| 2025-06-30 | 65.66 |
| 2025-07-07 | 66.20 |
| 2025-07-14 | 67.12 |
| 2025-07-21 | 67.01 |
| 2025-07-28 | 64.42 |
| 2025-08-04 | 65.32 |
| 2025-08-11 | 66.10 |
| 2025-08-18 | 66.43 |
| 2025-08-25 | 65.21 |
| 2025-09-01 | 64.39 |
| 2025-09-08 | 65.19 |
| 2025-09-15 | 64.94 |
| 2025-09-22 | 63.95 |
| 2025-09-29 | 62.86 |
| 2025-10-06 | 63.84 |
| 2025-10-13 | 64.28 |
| 2025-10-20 | 64.20 |
| 2025-10-27 | 65.54 |
| 2025-11-03 | 63.62 |
| 2025-11-10 | 62.49 |
| 2025-11-17 | 61.35 |
| 2025-11-24 | 62.91 |
| 2025-12-01 | 62.13 |
| 2025-12-08 | 63.83 |
| 2025-12-15 | 63.75 |
| 2025-12-22 | 64.49 |
| 2025-12-29 | 64.01 |
| 2026-01-05 | 64.41 |
| 2026-01-12 | 64.66 |
| 2026-01-19 | 63.81 |
| 2026-01-26 | 63.17 |
| 2026-02-02 | 61.06 |
| 2026-02-09 | 62.11 |
| 2026-02-16 | 63.03 |
| 2026-02-23 | 63.61 |
| 2026-03-02 | 63.19 |
| 2026-03-09 | 65.85 |
| 2026-03-16 | 67.31 |
| 2026-03-23 | 69.46 |
| 2026-03-30 | 70.92 |
| 2026-04-06 | 73.22 |
| 2026-04-13 | 77.40 |
| 2026-04-20 | 77.00 |
| 2026-04-27 | 81.85 |
| 2026-05-04 | 84.73 |
| 2026-05-11 | 80.61 |
| 2026-05-18 | 77.42 |
| 2026-05-25 | 76.15 |
| 2026-06-01 | 73.75 |
| 2026-06-08 | 77.87 |
Options-only open interest by trader category. Teal = managed money options net (spec directional bets via options). Gold = swap dealer options net (dealer intermediation). Red = producer/commercial options net (negative = producers bought puts → dealer sold puts). White dotted = SPRT percentile rank vs. full history. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning = structural conditions for amplified price moves.
| Date | MM Options ('000) | Swap Options ('000) | Producer Options ('000) | Pressure Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-11 | -32.8 | +36.5 | -21.9 | 86th |
| 2024-06-18 | -44.7 | +44.5 | -18.6 | 90th |
| 2024-06-25 | -36.7 | +45.5 | -24.4 | 90th |
| 2024-07-02 | +0.8 | +0.5 | -2.2 | 19th |
| 2024-07-09 | +0.9 | +0.8 | -2.4 | 22th |
| 2024-07-16 | +0.9 | +0.5 | -2.2 | 18th |
| 2024-07-23 | +1.0 | +0.5 | -2.5 | 20th |
| 2024-07-30 | +1.1 | +0.9 | -3.1 | 25th |
| 2024-08-06 | +1.0 | +1.1 | -3.3 | 26th |
| 2024-08-13 | +1.4 | -0.3 | -3.2 | 24th |
| 2024-08-20 | +0.9 | -1.0 | -2.4 | 21th |
| 2024-08-27 | +1.0 | -2.7 | -0.8 | 23th |
| 2024-09-03 | +1.0 | -2.9 | -0.7 | 23th |
| 2024-09-10 | +1.1 | -2.2 | -0.7 | 18th |
| 2024-09-17 | +2.0 | -3.5 | -1.8 | 30th |
| 2024-09-24 | +2.8 | -4.2 | -2.4 | 35th |
| 2024-10-01 | +3.0 | -5.3 | -2.2 | 36th |
| 2024-10-08 | +2.7 | -5.1 | -2.9 | 36th |
| 2024-10-15 | +2.7 | -4.7 | -2.5 | 34th |
| 2024-10-22 | +2.9 | -5.3 | -2.8 | 36th |
| 2024-10-29 | +2.2 | -4.8 | -3.0 | 34th |
| 2024-11-05 | +2.7 | -4.6 | -4.0 | 36th |
| 2024-11-12 | +3.1 | -4.8 | -3.9 | 38th |
| 2024-11-19 | +2.7 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 36th |
| 2024-11-26 | +2.4 | -4.5 | -4.2 | 38th |
| 2024-12-03 | +2.6 | -4.3 | -6.3 | 44th |
| 2024-12-10 | +2.9 | -2.0 | -7.3 | 40th |
| 2024-12-17 | +2.8 | -0.4 | -8.0 | 37th |
| 2024-12-24 | +2.6 | +0.6 | -8.1 | 38th |
| 2024-12-31 | +2.6 | +0.9 | -8.4 | 40th |
| 2025-01-07 | +2.6 | +1.0 | -8.5 | 39th |
| 2025-01-14 | +2.4 | +1.9 | -9.1 | 40th |
| 2025-01-21 | +1.9 | +1.8 | -10.0 | 39th |
| 2025-01-28 | +2.4 | +2.6 | -12.1 | 46th |
| 2025-02-04 | +1.8 | +3.8 | -14.8 | 52th |
| 2025-02-11 | -0.3 | +8.4 | -18.3 | 56th |
| 2025-02-18 | -3.6 | +9.8 | -17.2 | 58th |
| 2025-02-25 | -2.3 | +11.2 | -20.0 | 60th |
| 2025-03-04 | -3.3 | +12.2 | -18.5 | 59th |
| 2025-03-11 | -6.9 | +15.2 | -19.2 | 64th |
| 2025-03-18 | -7.8 | +17.5 | -21.7 | 66th |
| 2025-03-25 | -8.7 | +20.8 | -23.6 | 67th |
| 2025-04-01 | -7.4 | +19.3 | -27.4 | 66th |
| 2025-04-08 | -11.2 | +23.6 | -22.4 | 69th |
| 2025-04-15 | -14.2 | +21.7 | -17.1 | 71th |
| 2025-04-22 | -13.0 | +21.6 | -17.4 | 71th |
| 2025-04-29 | -10.2 | +22.6 | -20.2 | 72th |
| 2025-05-06 | -9.4 | +24.5 | -19.9 | 71th |
| 2025-05-13 | -15.0 | +28.6 | -19.6 | 74th |
| 2025-05-20 | -18.2 | +32.5 | -21.9 | 77th |
| 2025-05-27 | -22.4 | +33.8 | -21.0 | 79th |
| 2025-06-03 | -30.8 | +35.2 | -17.1 | 80th |
| 2025-06-10 | -48.3 | +38.6 | -7.5 | 84th |
| 2025-06-17 | -50.9 | +42.2 | -3.6 | 87th |
| 2025-06-24 | -48.1 | +42.7 | -7.7 | 89th |
| 2025-07-01 | +0.5 | -1.4 | -0.4 | 12th |
| 2025-07-08 | +0.5 | -1.8 | +0.1 | 13th |
| 2025-07-15 | +0.5 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 14th |
| 2025-07-22 | +0.7 | -1.5 | +0.0 | 11th |
| 2025-07-29 | +1.0 | -1.8 | -0.1 | 14th |
| 2025-08-05 | +0.7 | -1.4 | -1.2 | 15th |
| 2025-08-12 | +0.2 | -2.2 | -1.0 | 15th |
| 2025-08-19 | +0.4 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 19th |
| 2025-08-26 | +0.7 | -2.3 | -1.8 | 22th |
| 2025-09-02 | +0.8 | -2.3 | -1.3 | 18th |
| 2025-09-09 | +1.2 | -2.5 | -1.3 | 22th |
| 2025-09-16 | +1.5 | -3.3 | -1.3 | 26th |
| 2025-09-23 | +1.7 | -3.3 | -1.4 | 26th |
| 2025-09-30 | +1.6 | -3.5 | -1.6 | 26th |
| 2025-10-07 | +1.4 | -2.8 | -0.8 | 18th |
| 2025-10-14 | +1.2 | -1.5 | -0.9 | 13th |
| 2025-10-21 | +1.1 | -2.6 | -1.3 | 18th |
| 2025-10-28 | +0.4 | -3.2 | -1.1 | 16th |
| 2025-11-04 | +0.1 | -2.3 | -1.1 | 12th |
| 2025-11-10 | +0.0 | -1.9 | -1.2 | 12th |
| 2025-11-18 | +0.9 | +0.6 | -3.5 | 19th |
| 2025-11-25 | +0.6 | +2.2 | -4.8 | 28th |
| 2025-12-02 | +0.0 | +1.0 | -3.2 | 15th |
| 2025-12-09 | +0.1 | +0.8 | -4.0 | 18th |
| 2025-12-16 | -0.0 | +1.2 | -4.3 | 20th |
| 2025-12-23 | -0.5 | +0.3 | -5.7 | 24th |
| 2025-12-30 | +0.5 | +0.1 | -5.8 | 24th |
| 2026-01-06 | +0.9 | -1.8 | -7.5 | 31th |
| 2026-01-13 | +2.5 | -1.3 | -7.2 | 32th |
| 2026-01-20 | +3.8 | -0.6 | -8.1 | 33th |
| 2026-01-27 | +4.5 | +2.3 | -11.2 | 39th |
| 2026-02-03 | +3.9 | +5.0 | -12.5 | 42th |
| 2026-02-10 | +1.2 | +10.4 | -13.5 | 52th |
| 2026-02-17 | +1.0 | +13.3 | -15.3 | 55th |
| 2026-02-24 | +2.4 | +10.7 | -18.7 | 56th |
| 2026-03-03 | +2.8 | +13.0 | -22.8 | 59th |
| 2026-03-10 | +2.8 | +16.3 | -26.8 | 62th |
| 2026-03-17 | +6.1 | +14.0 | -33.0 | 63th |
| 2026-03-24 | +9.2 | +17.4 | -39.8 | 67th |
| 2026-03-31 | +20.2 | +13.5 | -51.8 | 70th |
| 2026-04-07 | +23.0 | +13.0 | -53.1 | 70th |
| 2026-04-14 | +28.1 | +11.3 | -59.3 | 74th |
| 2026-04-21 | +43.2 | +7.2 | -68.2 | 77th |
| 2026-04-28 | +45.1 | +7.1 | -71.4 | 78th |
| 2026-05-05 | +54.8 | +2.8 | -82.0 | 79th |
| 2026-05-12 | +58.1 | +5.1 | -92.0 | 80th |
| 2026-05-19 | +56.1 | +11.9 | -94.8 | 82th |
| 2026-05-26 | +57.1 | +12.0 | -100.4 | 84th |
| 2026-06-02 | +58.8 | +10.9 | -112.3 | 85th |
USDA FAS Export Sales · Outstanding = committed but not yet shipped · Large China outstanding = strong forward demand · Published Thursdays
| Week | Outstanding Sales (k bales) | Weekly Exports (k bales) | China Outstanding (k bales) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 3,302 | 385 | 122 |
| 2026-04-30 | 3,098 | 328 | 106 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,856 | 290 | 80 |
| 2026-05-14 | 2,698 | 289 | 63 |
| 2026-05-21 | 2,534 | 318 | 70 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2,451 | 269 | 55 |
USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)
USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · % Good + Excellent combined · Values above 60% signal favourable crop development; below 40% indicates stress
USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · TX/OK/KS average — Texas represents ~40% of US cotton production
| Date | D0 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D2+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | 24.7 | 22.6 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 12.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 23.5 | 26.7 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 0.1 | 12.3 |
| 2026-01-06 | 19.1 | 32.2 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 15.7 |
| 2026-01-13 | 16.6 | 28.8 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 0.1 | 17.4 |
| 2026-01-20 | 16.8 | 28.4 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 19.6 |
| 2026-01-27 | 17.4 | 29.0 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 18.4 |
| 2026-02-03 | 22.9 | 27.7 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 21.3 |
| 2026-02-10 | 24.2 | 28.5 | 13.9 | 9.0 | 0.1 | 23.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 25.8 | 27.3 | 14.6 | 8.6 | 0.2 | 23.4 |
| 2026-02-24 | 18.4 | 34.5 | 15.1 | 9.8 | 0.5 | 25.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 16.4 | 33.1 | 21.8 | 9.9 | 1.0 | 32.6 |
| 2026-03-10 | 18.0 | 32.4 | 20.5 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 31.4 |
| 2026-03-17 | 18.6 | 33.9 | 21.4 | 10.0 | 1.1 | 32.6 |
| 2026-03-24 | 20.1 | 29.8 | 25.4 | 13.7 | 1.4 | 40.4 |
| 2026-03-31 | 15.8 | 28.1 | 28.0 | 19.8 | 1.6 | 49.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 14.3 | 32.2 | 29.2 | 17.1 | 0.9 | 47.2 |
| 2026-04-14 | 10.9 | 26.9 | 33.4 | 15.9 | 0.6 | 49.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 12.0 | 28.7 | 29.1 | 15.6 | 0.5 | 45.2 |
| 2026-04-28 | 13.8 | 24.9 | 28.2 | 17.4 | 0.5 | 46.1 |
| 2026-05-05 | 14.7 | 24.7 | 26.2 | 18.5 | 0.2 | 44.9 |
| 2026-05-12 | 14.5 | 26.2 | 24.2 | 18.1 | 1.3 | 43.6 |
| 2026-05-19 | 15.1 | 25.6 | 21.0 | 19.9 | 1.6 | 42.6 |
| 2026-05-26 | 17.5 | 24.2 | 20.4 | 18.8 | 2.0 | 41.2 |
| 2026-06-02 | 18.5 | 27.4 | 15.6 | 14.5 | 3.6 | 33.7 |
USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · Southeast Delta states average — run drought_monitor.py --update to populate
| Date | D0 | D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D2+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | 16.8 | 33.0 | 34.1 | 13.5 | 0.4 | 48.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 16.2 | 33.3 | 32.9 | 13.1 | 0.7 | 46.6 |
| 2026-03-24 | 13.2 | 34.7 | 32.7 | 13.9 | 1.6 | 48.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 11.4 | 27.3 | 33.5 | 22.3 | 3.2 | 59.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 8.1 | 27.5 | 34.4 | 23.9 | 4.0 | 62.2 |
| 2026-04-14 | 4.0 | 16.6 | 45.8 | 28.5 | 5.1 | 79.4 |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 42.9 | 43.7 | 5.8 | 92.4 |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.7 | 6.8 | 37.7 | 47.6 | 7.2 | 92.5 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1.7 | 11.5 | 34.0 | 45.2 | 7.5 | 86.8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2.8 | 14.0 | 34.6 | 40.8 | 7.8 | 83.2 |
| 2026-05-19 | 2.2 | 14.4 | 32.1 | 43.0 | 8.3 | 83.4 |
| 2026-05-26 | 9.2 | 22.5 | 38.2 | 23.8 | 6.3 | 68.3 |
| 2026-06-02 | 14.2 | 28.4 | 29.9 | 18.8 | 1.1 | 49.8 |
3-2-1 crack spread = (2×RBOB + ULSD − 3×WTI) / 3 · Crude is the primary feedstock for polyester, cotton's main synthetic competitor · Cheap crude → cheap polyester → risk to cotton demand
CFTC Cotton On-Call · Unfixed = committed to buy/sell at a futures price to be fixed later · Large unfixed sales = pending mechanical buying pressure · Published Fridays
| Report Date | Unfixed Sales | Unfixed Purchases | Net Unfixed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 52,321.0 | 96,362.0 | -44,041.0 |
| 2026-01-29 | 50,908.0 | 98,867.0 | -47,959.0 |
| 2026-02-05 | 48,453.0 | 100,205.0 | -51,752.0 |
| 2026-02-12 | 45,712.0 | 101,471.0 | -55,759.0 |
| 2026-02-19 | 48,643.0 | 97,024.0 | -48,381.0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 48,522.0 | 88,496.0 | -39,974.0 |
| 2026-03-05 | 55,378.0 | 88,018.0 | -32,640.0 |
| 2026-03-12 | 56,853.0 | 85,216.0 | -28,363.0 |
| 2026-03-19 | 63,052.0 | 84,217.0 | -21,165.0 |
| 2026-03-26 | 61,192.0 | 81,271.0 | -20,079.0 |
| 2026-04-02 | 62,412.0 | 78,514.0 | -16,102.0 |
| 2026-04-09 | 58,320.0 | 74,331.0 | -16,011.0 |
| 2026-04-16 | 62,095.0 | 73,337.0 | -11,242.0 |
| 2026-04-23 | 57,879.0 | 69,366.0 | -11,487.0 |
| 2026-04-30 | 56,213.0 | 69,347.0 | -13,134.0 |
| 2026-05-07 | 60,897.0 | 70,072.0 | -9,175.0 |
| 2026-05-14 | 64,840.0 | 71,385.0 | -6,545.0 |
| 2026-05-21 | 65,313.0 | 71,678.0 | -6,365.0 |
| 2026-05-28 | 64,145.0 | 72,266.0 | -8,121.0 |
| 2026-06-04 | 67,627.0 | 74,868.0 | -7,241.0 |
Snapshot as of 2026-06-04 · Bars show where unfixed exposure is concentrated across delivery months · Front-heavy bars = shorter fixation window
| Contract | Unfixed Sales | Unfixed Purchases | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 14,600 | 9,053 | +5,547 |
| December 2026 | 23,985 | 37,211 | -13,226 |
| March 2027 | 12,132 | 5,596 | +6,536 |
| May 2027 | 4,277 | 427 | +3,850 |
| July 2027 | 7,798 | 22 | +7,776 |
| December 2027 | 2,917 | 20,413 | -17,496 |
| March 2028 | 1,268 | 88 | +1,180 |
| May 2028 | 518 | 50 | +468 |
| July 2028 | 132 | 0 | +132 |
| December 2028 | 0 | 1,390 | -1,390 |
| December 2029 | 0 | 508 | -508 |
| December 2030 | 0 | 58 | -58 |
| December 2031 | 0 | 52 | -52 |
Front-2 = the two nearest active delivery months · Rising share = unfixed exposure concentrating into near-term contracts · High concentration near delivery with large unfixed sales = mechanical squeeze risk
| Report Date | Front-2 Share |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-12 | 23.7% |
| 2025-06-20 | 9.8% |
| 2025-06-26 | 2.9% |
| 2025-07-03 | 52.6% |
| 2025-07-10 | 53.4% |
| 2025-07-17 | 50.0% |
| 2025-07-24 | 49.1% |
| 2025-07-31 | 48.4% |
| 2025-08-07 | 45.3% |
| 2025-08-14 | 43.5% |
| 2025-08-21 | 43.8% |
| 2025-08-28 | 43.8% |
| 2025-09-04 | 42.1% |
| 2025-09-11 | 39.9% |
| 2025-09-18 | 38.0% |
| 2025-09-25 | 36.6% |
| 2025-10-02 | 61.6% |
| 2025-10-09 | 59.8% |
| 2025-10-16 | 57.0% |
| 2025-10-23 | 55.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | 52.6% |
| 2025-11-06 | 51.0% |
| 2025-11-13 | 47.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | 42.8% |
| 2025-11-27 | 44.7% |
| 2025-12-04 | 59.4% |
| 2025-12-11 | 60.1% |
| 2025-12-18 | 61.9% |
| 2025-12-29 | 60.9% |
| 2026-01-02 | 61.0% |
| 2026-01-08 | 59.1% |
| 2026-01-15 | 58.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | 57.8% |
| 2026-01-29 | 51.6% |
| 2026-02-05 | 45.9% |
| 2026-02-12 | 41.1% |
| 2026-02-19 | 42.3% |
| 2026-02-26 | 39.8% |
| 2026-03-05 | 63.3% |
| 2026-03-12 | 56.2% |
| 2026-03-19 | 51.5% |
| 2026-03-26 | 50.5% |
| 2026-04-02 | 48.6% |
| 2026-04-09 | 41.2% |
| 2026-04-16 | 42.0% |
| 2026-04-23 | 34.7% |
| 2026-04-30 | 30.1% |
| 2026-05-07 | 33.3% |
| 2026-05-14 | 30.6% |
| 2026-05-21 | 25.8% |
| 2026-05-28 | 23.8% |
| 2026-06-04 | 21.6% |
USDA FAS PSD · Upland Cotton · 1000 480-lb bales · Updated on WASDE release days
| Market Year | World STU % | US Ending Stocks (k bales) |
|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 40.8% | 7,056 |
| 1961 | 42.8% | 7,699 |
| 1962 | 52.4% | 11,136 |
| 1963 | 54.5% | 12,351 |
| 1964 | 56.6% | 14,249 |
| 1965 | 60.5% | 17,028 |
| 1966 | 50.8% | 12,344 |
| 1967 | 42.0% | 6,584 |
| 1968 | 42.5% | 6,544 |
| 1969 | 40.0% | 5,843 |
| 1970 | 38.2% | 4,203 |
| 1971 | 38.5% | 3,258 |
| 1972 | 41.2% | 4,221 |
| 1973 | 45.1% | 3,808 |
| 1974 | 58.5% | 5,708 |
| 1975 | 42.0% | 3,681 |
| 1976 | 37.2% | 2,928 |
| 1977 | 42.0% | 5,347 |
| 1978 | 34.6% | 3,958 |
| 1979 | 32.2% | 3,000 |
| 1980 | 31.7% | 2,668 |
| 1981 | 40.8% | 6,632 |
| 1982 | 38.0% | 7,937 |
| 1983 | 35.4% | 2,775 |
| 1984 | 59.5% | 4,102 |
| 1985 | 63.2% | 9,348 |
| 1986 | 43.1% | 5,026 |
| 1987 | 38.8% | 5,771 |
| 1988 | 36.4% | 7,092 |
| 1989 | 28.7% | 3,000 |
| 1990 | 32.1% | 2,344 |
| 1991 | 43.0% | 3,704 |
| 1992 | 40.1% | 4,662 |
| 1993 | 32.6% | 3,530 |
| 1994 | 37.9% | 2,650 |
| 1995 | 46.6% | 2,609 |
| 1996 | 50.7% | 3,971 |
| 1997 | 56.4% | 3,887 |
| 1998 | 62.3% | 3,939 |
| 1999 | 56.4% | 3,915 |
| 2000 | 53.5% | 6,000 |
| 2001 | 58.3% | 7,448 |
| 2002 | 48.5% | 5,385 |
| 2003 | 46.8% | 3,450 |
| 2004 | 53.6% | 5,495 |
| 2005 | 52.2% | 6,069 |
| 2006 | 48.2% | 9,479 |
| 2007 | 46.9% | 10,051 |
| 2008 | 53.3% | 6,337 |
| 2009 | 36.5% | 2,947 |
| 2010 | 37.4% | 2,600 |
| 2011 | 64.2% | 3,350 |
| 2012 | 80.6% | 3,800 |
| 2013 | 88.2% | 2,350 |
| 2014 | 91.9% | 3,650 |
| 2015 | 77.3% | 3,800 |
| 2016 | 65.3% | 2,750 |
| 2017 | 60.8% | 4,200 |
| 2018 | 59.5% | 4,950 |
| 2019 | 79.5% | 7,450 |
| 2020 | 58.4% | 3,650 |
| 2021 | 61.5% | 4,600 |
| 2022 | 67.3% | 4,650 |
| 2023 | 64.0% | 3,150 |
| 2024 | 62.6% | 4,000 |
| 2025 | 64.3% | 4,400 |
| 2026 | 59.0% | 3,900 |
USDA WASDE · Cotton · World and World Less China STU (teal = World, gold = Ex-China). China holds ~40% of world stocks as non-tradeable state reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.
| MY | World STU (%) | Ex-China STU (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | 38.8 | — |
| 08/09 | 43.2 | — |
| 09/10 | 30.5 | — |
| 10/11 | 33.1 | — |
| 11/12 | 49.3 | — |
| 12/13 | 58.3 | — |
| 13/14 | 68.2 | — |
| 14/15 | 76.2 | — |
| 15/16 | 64.5 | — |
| 16/17 | 52.2 | — |
| 17/18 | 49.1 | 34.7 |
| 18/19 | 49.3 | 36.2 |
| 19/20 | 67.0 | 53.9 |
| 20/21 | 50.1 | 37.0 |
| 21/22 | 47.9 | 30.5 |
| 22/23 | 50.8 | 38.2 |
| 23/24 | 46.1 | 30.5 |
| 24/25 | 46.1 | 32.4 |
| 25/26 | 47.1 | 32.9 |
| 26/27 | 43.5 | 28.8 |
USDA WASDE · Cotton · Ex-China ending stocks ÷ (Brazil + Australia + US production). Denominator represents commercially-traded origins; ratio reflects real pipeline tightness independent of non-tradeable Chinese state reserves.
| MY | Ex-China Stocks / BR+AU+US Prod (%) |
|---|---|
| 17/18 | 122.4 |
| 18/19 | 131.9 |
| 19/20 | 175.3 |
| 20/21 | 171.8 |
| 21/22 | 111.9 |
| 22/23 | 133.0 |
| 23/24 | 115.6 |
| 24/25 | 107.2 |
| 25/26 | 107.1 |
| 26/27 | 105.8 |