Cotton Market Intelligence | US
SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com
Report date: May 29, 2026
Data as of: COT: 2026-05-19 | PSD: 2026-05-23 | Drought: 2026-05-19 | On-Call: 2026-05-21

HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/cotton_market_intelligence_3738134b.html

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AT A GLANCE

Report date:        May 29, 2026
COT as of:          2026-05-19
PSD market year:    2026
Drought as of:      2026-05-19
On-Call as of:      2026-05-21

MM Net Position:    +62.0k contracts (79th pct)
MM Change WoW:      +2.5k contracts
Open Interest:      503k contracts
World STU:          59.0%
US Ending Stocks:   3,900k bales (480-lb)
Texas D2+ Drought:  44%
On-Call Net Unfixed:-6,365.0 contracts

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COT POSITIONING — COTTON NO. 2

As of 2026-05-19 , managed money holds a net +62.0k contract long position (79th percentile — elevated). Week-over-week, managed money added 2.5k contracts. Open interest is elevated at 503k contracts (100th pct).

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COT MARKET ANALYSIS — 8-WEEK HISTORY

| Date       | MM Net | MM Pct | Comm Net | OI   |
| ---------- | ------ | ------ | -------- | ---- |
| 2026-03-31 | -12.2k | 18th   | -55.5k   | 456k |
| 2026-04-07 | -2.0k  | 26th   | -67.1k   | 467k |
| 2026-04-14 | +16.8k | 38th   | -88.0k   | 427k |
| 2026-04-21 | +34.5k | 52th   | -102.3k  | 466k |
| 2026-04-28 | +38.4k | 56th   | -101.8k  | 460k |
| 2026-05-05 | +51.2k | 68th   | -119.2k  | 497k |
| 2026-05-12 | +59.6k | 76th   | -122.2k  | 515k |
| 2026-05-19 | +62.0k | 79th   | -110.6k  | 503k |

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SUPPLY & DEMAND — USDA PSD

MY 2026: World stocks-to-use is 59.0% — near-average by historical standards. US ending stocks are 3,900k bales.

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SUPPLY & DEMAND — HISTORY (6 MY)

| MY   | World Prod | World Use | World Stocks | World STU% | US Stocks |
| ---- | ---------- | --------- | ------------ | ---------- | --------- |
| 2021 | 114,335k   | —         | 71,191k      | 61.5%      | 4,600k    |
| 2022 | 115,919k   | —         | 75,859k      | 67.3%      | 4,650k    |
| 2023 | 112,234k   | —         | 73,449k      | 64.0%      | 3,150k    |
| 2024 | 119,341k   | —         | 74,515k      | 62.6%      | 4,000k    |
| 2025 | 122,641k   | —         | 77,265k      | 64.3%      | 4,400k    |
| 2026 | 116,044k   | —         | 71,841k      | 59.0%      | 3,900k    |

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DROUGHT — US COTTON BELT

As of 2026-05-19 , the High Plains cotton belt (TX/OK/KS) shows 43% D2+ drought coverage — significant drought coverage. Texas (≈40% of US production): 44% in D2+ .

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ON-CALL POSITIONS — UNFIXED

As of 2026-05-21 , unfixed call sales total 65,313.0 contracts vs. 71,678.0 unfixed call purchases — net -6,365.0 (bearish mechanical selling pressure). Unfixed call sales increased by 473.0 contracts week-over-week.

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ON-CALL 8-WEEK HISTORY

| Date       | Unfixed Sales | Unfixed Purch | Net       |
| ---------- | ------------- | ------------- | --------- |
| 2026-05-07 | 60,897.0      | 70,072.0      | -9,175.0  |
| 2026-05-13 | 60,897.0      | 4,684.0       | +56,213.0 |
| 2026-05-14 | 64,840.0      | 71,385.0      | -6,545.0  |
| 2026-05-21 | 65,313.0      | 71,678.0      | -6,365.0  |

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DATA SOURCES

• CFTC Disaggregated COT (ICE Cotton No. 2)
• USDA FAS PSD — Upland Cotton
• USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting (ESR)
• USDA NASS QuickStats — Crop Progress
• CFTC Cotton On-Call Report
• USDA Drought Monitor
• Yahoo Finance (WTI proxy)

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
© 2026 SoftSignal LLC