Cotton Market Intelligence | US

COT: 2026-05-12 PSD: 2026-05-15 Drought: 2026-05-12 On-Call: 2026-05-14

MM Net Position

+59.6k cts

Cotton No. 2 · 76th pct · 2026-05-12

MM Change WoW

+8.4k cts

Week-over-week · 2026-05-12

World STU

59.0%

MY 2026 · USDA PSD

Texas D2+ Drought

44%

D2+ coverage · 2026-05-12

On-Call Net Unfixed

-6,545.0

Contracts · 2026-05-14

US Ending Stocks

3,900k

480-lb bales · MY 2026

As of 2026-05-12, managed money holds a net +59.6k contract long position (76th percentile — elevated). Week-over-week, managed money added 8.4k contracts. Open interest is elevated at 515k contracts (100th pct).

CFTC disaggregated COT — Cotton No. 2 ICE Futures U.S. · Combined futures+options

Date	MM Net (k cts)	Comm Net (k cts)	OI (k cts)
2026-01-27	-65.0k	37.7k	421.7k
2026-02-03	-71.7k	42.1k	444.6k
2026-02-10	-75.6k	49.7k	412.5k
2026-02-17	-79.5k	54.3k	391.4k
2026-02-24	-65.4k	26.1k	380.2k
2026-03-03	-72.9k	25.5k	385.6k
2026-03-10	-66.8k	18.3k	394.4k
2026-03-17	-40.2k	-24.3k	427.1k
2026-03-24	-33.4k	-27.6k	416.4k
2026-03-31	-12.2k	-55.5k	455.7k
2026-04-07	-2.0k	-67.1k	467.1k
2026-04-14	16.8k	-88.0k	427.2k
2026-04-21	34.5k	-102.3k	465.7k
2026-04-28	38.4k	-101.8k	459.6k
2026-05-05	51.2k	-119.2k	496.7k
2026-05-12	59.6k	-122.2k	515.0k

Producers/merchants + swap dealers · short = hedged supply · inverted from MM

US cotton exports are the primary demand driver. China typically absorbs 30–40% of annual US export sales. A pace running ahead of USDA's projection implies potential upward revision at the next WASDE; a slow pace signals demand risk. Marketing year runs August–July.

USDA FAS Export Sales · Outstanding = committed but not yet shipped · Large China outstanding = strong forward demand · Published Thursdays

Week	Outstanding Sales (k bales)	Weekly Exports (k bales)	China Outstanding (k bales)
2026-04-23	3,302	385	122
2026-04-30	3,098	328	106
2026-05-07	2,856	290	80

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · % Good + Excellent combined · Values above 60% signal favourable crop development; below 40% indicates stress

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)

As of 2026-05-12, the High Plains cotton belt (TX/OK/KS) shows 44% D2+ drought coverage — significant drought coverage. Texas (≈40% of US production): 44% in D2+.

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · TX/OK/KS average — Texas represents ~40% of US cotton production

Date	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D2+
2025-12-02	25.6	16.6	8.1	2.5	0.1	10.8
2025-12-09	27.7	16.8	8.1	2.4	0.1	10.6
2025-12-16	26.6	18.5	7.0	3.5	0.1	10.7
2025-12-23	24.7	22.6	7.5	4.4	0.1	12.0
2025-12-30	23.5	26.7	7.6	4.6	0.1	12.3
2026-01-06	19.1	32.2	10.3	5.3	0.1	15.7
2026-01-13	16.6	28.8	10.1	7.2	0.1	17.4
2026-01-20	16.8	28.4	11.4	8.1	0.1	19.6
2026-01-27	17.4	29.0	10.7	7.7	0.1	18.4
2026-02-03	22.9	27.7	13.0	8.2	0.1	21.3
2026-02-10	24.2	28.5	13.9	9.0	0.1	23.0
2026-02-17	25.8	27.3	14.6	8.6	0.2	23.4
2026-02-24	18.4	34.5	15.1	9.8	0.5	25.4
2026-03-03	16.4	33.1	21.8	9.9	1.0	32.6
2026-03-10	18.0	32.4	20.5	9.8	1.0	31.4
2026-03-17	18.6	33.9	21.4	10.0	1.1	32.6
2026-03-24	20.1	29.8	25.4	13.7	1.4	40.4
2026-03-31	15.8	28.1	28.0	19.8	1.6	49.4
2026-04-07	14.3	32.2	29.2	17.1	0.9	47.2
2026-04-14	10.9	26.9	33.4	15.9	0.6	49.9
2026-04-21	12.0	28.7	29.1	15.6	0.5	45.2
2026-04-28	13.8	24.9	28.2	17.4	0.5	46.1
2026-05-05	14.7	24.7	26.2	18.5	0.2	44.9
2026-05-12	14.5	26.2	24.2	18.1	1.3	43.6

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · Southeast Delta states average — run drought_monitor.py --update to populate

Date	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D2+
2026-03-10	16.8	33.0	34.1	13.5	0.4	48.0
2026-03-17	16.2	33.3	32.9	13.1	0.7	46.6
2026-03-24	13.2	34.7	32.7	13.9	1.6	48.3
2026-03-31	11.4	27.3	33.5	22.3	3.2	59.0
2026-04-07	8.1	27.5	34.4	23.9	4.0	62.2
2026-04-14	4.0	16.6	45.8	28.5	5.1	79.4
2026-04-21	0.0	7.6	42.9	43.7	5.8	92.4
2026-04-28	0.7	6.8	37.7	47.6	7.2	92.5
2026-05-05	1.7	11.5	34.0	45.2	7.5	86.8
2026-05-12	2.8	14.0	34.6	40.8	7.8	83.2

Polyester is cotton's primary synthetic competitor. Crude oil is polyester's main feedstock — when crude is cheap, polyester production costs fall and textile mills have more incentive to substitute away from cotton. The 3-2-1 crack spread proxies refining margins; a narrow spread signals cheap refined product costs (bearish cotton demand), while a wide spread suggests higher synthetic fiber costs (supportive for cotton).

3-2-1 crack spread = (2×RBOB + ULSD − 3×WTI) / 3 · Crude is the primary feedstock for polyester, cotton's main synthetic competitor · Cheap crude → cheap polyester → risk to cotton demand

As of 2026-05-14, unfixed call sales total 64,840.0 contracts vs. 71,385.0 unfixed call purchases — net -6,545.0 (bearish mechanical selling pressure). Unfixed call sales increased by 3,943.0 contracts week-over-week.

CFTC Cotton On-Call · Unfixed = committed to buy/sell at a futures price to be fixed later · Large unfixed sales = pending mechanical buying pressure · Published Fridays

Report Date	Unfixed Sales	Unfixed Purchases	Net Unfixed
2026-05-07	60,897.0	70,072.0	-9,175.0
2026-05-13	60,897.0	4,684.0	56,213.0
2026-05-14	64,840.0	71,385.0	-6,545.0

How to read On-Call: Mill buyers who purchase cotton "on call" commit to a delivery month but fix the price later against the futures market. Large unfixed call sales = a queue of pending buy orders that must eventually price against the market — mechanical buying pressure that can create price floors or accelerate rallies. Unfixed call purchases work in reverse (pending selling). The net figure (sales minus purchases) gives the directional bias of pending fixation activity.

MY 2026: World stocks-to-use is 59.0% — near-average by historical standards. US ending stocks are 3,900k bales.

USDA FAS PSD · Upland Cotton · 1000 480-lb bales · Updated on WASDE release days

Market Year	World STU %	US Ending Stocks (k bales)
1960	40.8%	7,056
1961	42.8%	7,699
1962	52.4%	11,136
1963	54.5%	12,351
1964	56.6%	14,249
1965	60.5%	17,028
1966	50.8%	12,344
1967	42.0%	6,584
1968	42.5%	6,544
1969	40.0%	5,843
1970	38.2%	4,203
1971	38.5%	3,258
1972	41.2%	4,221
1973	45.1%	3,808
1974	58.5%	5,708
1975	42.0%	3,681
1976	37.2%	2,928
1977	42.0%	5,347
1978	34.6%	3,958
1979	32.2%	3,000
1980	31.7%	2,668
1981	40.8%	6,632
1982	38.0%	7,937
1983	35.4%	2,775
1984	59.5%	4,102
1985	63.2%	9,348
1986	43.1%	5,026
1987	38.8%	5,771
1988	36.4%	7,092
1989	28.7%	3,000
1990	32.1%	2,344
1991	43.0%	3,704
1992	40.1%	4,662
1993	32.6%	3,530
1994	37.9%	2,650
1995	46.6%	2,609
1996	50.7%	3,971
1997	56.4%	3,887
1998	62.3%	3,939
1999	56.4%	3,915
2000	53.5%	6,000
2001	58.3%	7,448
2002	48.5%	5,385
2003	46.8%	3,450
2004	53.6%	5,495
2005	52.2%	6,069
2006	48.2%	9,479
2007	46.9%	10,051
2008	53.3%	6,337
2009	36.5%	2,947
2010	37.4%	2,600
2011	64.2%	3,350
2012	80.6%	3,800
2013	88.2%	2,350
2014	91.9%	3,650
2015	77.3%	3,800
2016	65.3%	2,750
2017	60.8%	4,200
2018	59.5%	4,950
2019	79.5%	7,450
2020	58.4%	3,650
2021	61.5%	4,600
2022	67.3%	4,650
2023	64.0%	3,150
2024	62.6%	4,000
2025	64.3%	4,400
2026	59.0%	3,900