Cotton Market Intelligence | US

Date	¢/lb
2025-10-31	65.54
2025-11-07	63.62
2025-11-14	62.49
2025-11-21	61.35
2025-11-28	62.91
2025-12-05	62.13
2025-12-12	63.83
2025-12-19	63.75
2025-12-26	64.49
2026-01-02	64.01
2026-01-09	64.41
2026-01-16	64.66
2026-01-23	63.81
2026-01-30	63.17
2026-02-06	61.06
2026-02-13	62.11
2026-02-20	63.03
2026-02-27	63.61
2026-03-06	63.19
2026-03-13	65.85
2026-03-20	67.31
2026-03-27	69.46
2026-04-03	70.92
2026-04-10	73.22
2026-04-17	77.40
2026-04-24	77.00
2026-05-01	81.85
2026-05-08	84.73
2026-05-15	80.61
2026-05-22	77.42
2026-05-29	76.15
2026-06-05	73.75
2026-06-12	72.94
2026-06-19	76.05
2026-06-26	71.66
2026-07-03	72.57
2026-07-10	79.92
2026-07-17	77.07
2026-07-24	78.55
2026-07-31	80.50
2026-08-07	83.22
2026-08-14	83.60
2026-08-21	87.07
2026-08-28	89.92
2026-09-04	82.42
2026-09-11	82.38
2026-09-18	77.38
2026-09-25	78.91
2026-10-02	75.15
2026-10-09	80.54
2026-10-16	80.00
2026-10-23	80.20
2026-10-30	79.19

How to read it. ICE Cotton No. 2 front month (data/prices/cotton_price.csv), Friday closes. The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly closes over 15 years.

Positioning

CFTC Disaggregated COT — Cotton No. 2 (code 033661) · managed money

This weekFunds are net long 66,466 contracts, the 80th percentile over 15 yrs, from +53,209 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 5th-highest weekly reading in 15 yrs (unusual high). normal

Cotton No. 2 — Funds' Net Position, latest 53 readings (10th pct -39,281, 90th pct 80,277)

Date	Net (contracts)
2025-10-21	-81,245
2025-10-28	-74,093
2025-11-04	-63,782
2025-11-10	-60,329
2025-11-18	-58,243
2025-11-25	-61,999
2025-12-02	-59,787
2025-12-09	-55,013
2025-12-16	-54,833
2025-12-23	-50,446
2025-12-30	-49,078
2026-01-06	-47,772
2026-01-13	-50,372
2026-01-20	-51,952
2026-01-27	-65,029
2026-02-03	-71,746
2026-02-10	-75,602
2026-02-17	-79,508
2026-02-24	-65,368
2026-03-03	-72,937
2026-03-10	-66,754
2026-03-17	-40,205
2026-03-24	-33,448
2026-03-31	-12,226
2026-04-07	-2,020
2026-04-14	16,825
2026-04-21	34,464
2026-04-28	38,355
2026-05-05	51,184
2026-05-12	59,570
2026-05-19	62,045
2026-05-26	54,200
2026-06-02	52,402
2026-06-09	42,204
2026-06-16	35,136
2026-06-23	38,445
2026-06-30	31,985
2026-07-07	39,106
2026-07-14	49,684
2026-07-21	53,209
2026-07-28	52,410
2026-08-04	62,279
2026-08-11	72,870
2026-08-18	78,668
2026-08-25	95,841
2026-09-01	107,976
2026-09-08	100,170
2026-09-15	97,903
2026-09-22	81,610
2026-09-29	74,593
2026-10-06	63,837
2026-10-13	65,699
2026-10-20	66,466

How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.

Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →

Stocks & Supply

USDA FAS export sales · USDA PSD world balance sheet · WASDE ex-China

This weekEx-China stocks-to-use is 28.6% for 2026/27, the lowest crop year in 8 yrs. unusual low

EXPORT SALES PACE

US cotton exports are the primary demand driver. China typically absorbs 30–40% of annual US export sales. A pace running ahead of USDA's projection implies potential upward revision at the next WASDE; a slow pace signals demand risk. Marketing year runs August–July.

USDA FAS Export Sales · Outstanding = committed but not yet shipped · Large China outstanding = strong forward demand · Published Thursdays

US cotton export sales — outstanding commitments and weekly shipments

Week	Outstanding Sales (k bales)	Weekly Exports (k bales)	China Outstanding (k bales)
2026-04-23	3,302	385	122
2026-04-30	3,098	328	106
2026-05-07	2,856	290	80
2026-05-14	2,698	289	63
2026-05-21	2,534	318	70
2026-05-28	2,451	269	55
2026-06-04	2,357	300	43
2026-06-11	2,284	251	34
2026-06-18	2,067	300	29
2026-06-25	1,898	219	29
2026-07-02	1,734	230	31
2026-07-09	1,553	215	28
2026-07-16	1,328	276	41
2026-07-23	1,124	234	35
2026-07-30	846	223	32
2026-08-06	3,886	140	170
2026-08-13	3,873	222	165
2026-08-20	3,788	181	165
2026-08-27	3,626	189	165
2026-09-03	3,522	178	164
2026-09-10	3,451	142	162
2026-09-17	3,517	165	157
2026-09-24	3,570	150	194
2026-10-01	3,574	162	186
2026-10-08	3,580	141	194
2026-10-15	3,583	196	191

PSD SNAPSHOT — SUPPLY & DEMAND

MY 2026: World stocks-to-use is 57.4% — near-average by historical standards. US ending stocks are 3,800k bales.

USDA FAS PSD · All Cotton (incl. Pima) · 1000 480-lb bales · Updated on WASDE release days

Cotton PSD — world stocks-to-use and US ending stocks by year

Market Year	World STU %	US Ending Stocks (k bales)
1960	40.8%	7,056
1961	42.8%	7,699
1962	52.4%	11,136
1963	54.5%	12,351
1964	56.6%	14,249
1965	60.5%	17,028
1966	50.8%	12,344
1967	42.0%	6,584
1968	42.5%	6,544
1969	40.0%	5,843
1970	38.2%	4,203
1971	38.5%	3,258
1972	41.2%	4,221
1973	45.1%	3,808
1974	58.5%	5,708
1975	42.0%	3,681
1976	37.2%	2,928
1977	42.0%	5,347
1978	34.6%	3,958
1979	32.2%	3,000
1980	31.7%	2,668
1981	40.8%	6,632
1982	38.0%	7,937
1983	35.4%	2,775
1984	59.5%	4,102
1985	63.2%	9,348
1986	43.1%	5,026
1987	38.8%	5,771
1988	36.4%	7,092
1989	28.7%	3,000
1990	32.1%	2,344
1991	43.0%	3,704
1992	40.1%	4,662
1993	32.6%	3,530
1994	37.9%	2,650
1995	46.6%	2,609
1996	50.7%	3,971
1997	56.4%	3,887
1998	62.3%	3,939
1999	56.4%	3,915
2000	53.5%	6,000
2001	58.3%	7,448
2002	48.5%	5,385
2003	46.8%	3,450
2004	53.6%	5,495
2005	52.2%	6,069
2006	48.2%	9,479
2007	46.9%	10,051
2008	53.3%	6,337
2009	36.5%	2,947
2010	37.4%	2,600
2011	64.2%	3,350
2012	80.6%	3,800
2013	88.2%	2,350
2014	91.9%	3,650
2015	77.3%	3,800
2016	65.3%	2,750
2017	60.8%	4,200
2018	59.5%	4,950
2019	79.5%	7,450
2020	58.4%	3,650
2021	61.5%	4,600
2022	67.3%	4,650
2023	64.1%	3,150
2024	63.1%	4,000
2025	62.7%	4,150
2026	57.4%	3,800

EX-CHINA SUPPLY CONTEXT

Ex-China cotton Stocks-to-Use Ratio (STU) — 2026/27: 28.6% (10th percentile — historically tight). China holds approximately 40% of world cotton stocks as non-tradeable state reserves. Ex-China STU reflects the supply tightness that globally-trading mills and merchants face.

USDA WASDE · Cotton · World and World Less China STU (teal = World, gold = Ex-China). China holds ~40% of world stocks as non-tradeable state reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Cotton stocks-to-use World and Ex-China by marketing year

MY	World STU (%)	Ex-China STU (%)
07/08	38.8	—
08/09	43.2	—
09/10	30.5	—
10/11	33.1	—
11/12	49.3	—
12/13	58.3	—
13/14	68.2	—
14/15	76.2	—
15/16	64.5	—
16/17	52.2	—
17/18	49.1	34.7
18/19	49.3	36.2
19/20	67.0	53.9
20/21	50.1	37.0
21/22	47.9	30.5
22/23	50.8	38.2
23/24	46.1	30.5
24/25	46.5	32.9
25/26	45.4	31.6
26/27	42.1	28.6

USDA WASDE · Cotton · Ex-China ending stocks ÷ (Brazil + Australia + US production). Denominator represents commercially-traded origins; ratio reflects real pipeline tightness independent of non-tradeable Chinese state reserves.

Cotton Ex-China ending stocks as a percent of Brazil, Australia, and US production

MY	Ex-China Stocks / BR+AU+US Prod (%)
17/18	122.4
18/19	131.9
19/20	175.3
20/21	171.8
21/22	111.9
22/23	133.0
23/24	115.6
24/25	108.7
25/26	106.2
26/27	101.6

On-Call & Competing Fiber

CFTC Cotton On-Call report · WTI crude as the polyester-cost proxy

ON-CALL SALES — UNFIXED POSITIONS

As of 2026-10-22, unfixed call sales total 79,398 contracts vs. 64,797 unfixed call purchases — net +14,601 (bullish mechanical buying setup). Unfixed call sales increased by 1,665 contracts week-over-week.

CFTC Cotton On-Call · Unfixed = committed to buy/sell at a futures price to be fixed later · Large unfixed sales = pending mechanical buying pressure · Published Fridays

CFTC Cotton On-Call unfixed positions

Report Date	Unfixed Sales	Unfixed Purchases	Net Unfixed
2026-06-11	66,090	76,591	-10,501
2026-06-18	65,873	77,053	-11,180
2026-06-25	68,011	75,015	-7,004
2026-07-02	62,975	75,958	-12,983
2026-07-09	64,878	76,957	-12,079
2026-07-16	63,813	78,399	-14,586
2026-07-23	65,686	74,371	-8,685
2026-07-30	66,668	73,115	-6,447
2026-08-06	67,984	71,752	-3,768
2026-08-13	77,680	71,041	6,639
2026-08-20	77,238	72,370	4,868
2026-08-27	79,167	67,696	11,471
2026-09-03	80,128	66,959	13,169
2026-09-10	79,814	65,989	13,825
2026-09-17	80,739	63,831	16,908
2026-09-24	82,458	60,534	21,924
2026-10-01	83,295	62,361	20,934
2026-10-08	77,329	61,155	16,174
2026-10-15	77,733	61,674	16,059
2026-10-22	79,398	64,797	14,601

CONTRACT PROFILE — CURRENT SNAPSHOT

Where is the unfixed exposure sitting? A concentration of unfixed call sales in the front one or two contracts shortens the fixation window — mills must price against the market before first notice day, creating urgency that does not exist for distant contracts.

Snapshot as of 2026-10-22 · Bars show where unfixed exposure is concentrated across delivery months · Front-heavy bars = shorter fixation window

On-call unfixed positions by contract month

Contract	Unfixed Sales	Unfixed Purchases	Net
December 2026	17,083	19,725	-2,642
March 2027	23,958	8,664	+15,294
May 2027	11,720	1,168	+10,552
July 2027	15,448	255	+15,193
December 2027	8,650	31,762	-23,112
March 2028	1,712	105	+1,607
May 2028	562	50	+512
July 2028	265	0	+265
December 2028	0	2,150	-2,150
March 2029	0	50	-50
December 2029	0	608	-608
March 2030	0	50	-50
December 2030	0	108	-108
March 2031	0	50	-50
December 2031	0	52	-52

FIXATION PRESSURE — FRONT-CONTRACT CONCENTRATION

Rising front-2 share means the market's unfixed exposure is concentrating into near-term contracts. When a large share of unfixed call sales sits in the front two months and the price is trending, mills may be forced to fix simultaneously — amplifying directional moves or creating a squeeze. Compare the pressure line against the CT price to see prior setups.

Front-2 = the two nearest active delivery months · Rising share = unfixed exposure concentrating into near-term contracts · High concentration near delivery with large unfixed sales = mechanical squeeze risk

On-call front-2 fixation pressure history

Report Date	Front-2 Share
2025-10-30	52.6%
2025-11-06	51.0%
2025-11-13	47.0%
2025-11-20	42.8%
2025-11-27	44.7%
2025-12-04	59.4%
2025-12-11	60.1%
2025-12-18	61.9%
2025-12-29	60.9%
2026-01-02	61.0%
2026-01-08	59.1%
2026-01-15	58.6%
2026-01-22	57.8%
2026-01-29	51.6%
2026-02-05	45.9%
2026-02-12	41.1%
2026-02-19	42.3%
2026-02-26	39.8%
2026-03-05	63.3%
2026-03-12	56.2%
2026-03-19	51.5%
2026-03-26	50.5%
2026-04-02	48.6%
2026-04-09	41.2%
2026-04-16	42.0%
2026-04-23	34.7%
2026-04-30	30.1%
2026-05-07	33.3%
2026-05-14	30.6%
2026-05-21	25.8%
2026-05-28	23.8%
2026-06-04	21.6%
2026-06-11	15.5%
2026-06-18	11.0%
2026-06-25	8.2%
2026-07-02	45.1%
2026-07-09	45.8%
2026-07-16	44.7%
2026-07-23	44.0%
2026-07-30	43.6%
2026-08-06	42.6%
2026-08-13	41.5%
2026-08-20	39.1%
2026-08-27	39.0%
2026-09-03	37.9%
2026-09-10	35.2%
2026-09-17	33.9%
2026-09-24	31.2%
2026-10-01	29.3%
2026-10-08	53.9%
2026-10-15	53.2%
2026-10-22	51.7%

How to read On-Call: Mill buyers who purchase cotton "on call" commit to a delivery month but fix the price later against the futures market. Large unfixed call sales = a queue of pending buy orders that must eventually price against the market — mechanical buying pressure that can create price floors or accelerate rallies. Unfixed call purchases work in reverse (pending selling). The net figure (sales minus purchases) gives the directional bias of pending fixation activity.

COTTON / POLYESTER SPREAD

Polyester is cotton's primary synthetic competitor. Crude oil is polyester's main feedstock — when crude is cheap, polyester production costs fall and textile mills have more incentive to substitute away from cotton. The 3-2-1 crack spread proxies refining margins; a narrow spread signals cheap refined product costs (bearish cotton demand), while a wide spread suggests higher synthetic fiber costs (supportive for cotton).

3-2-1 crack spread = (2×RBOB + ULSD − 3×WTI) / 3 · Crude is the primary feedstock for polyester, cotton's main synthetic competitor · Cheap crude → cheap polyester → risk to cotton demand

Field & Weather

USDA NASS crop progress · USDA Drought Monitor · abandonment

CROP PROGRESS & CONDITIONS

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · % Good + Excellent combined · Values above 60% signal favorable crop development; below 40% indicates stress

USDA NASS QuickStats · US Total · Weekly during growing season (April–November)

DROUGHT — US COTTON BELT

As of 2026-10-20, the High Plains cotton belt (TX/OK/KS) shows 40% D2+ drought coverage — significant drought coverage. Texas (≈40% of US production): 45% in D2+.

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · TX/OK/KS average — Texas represents ~40% of US cotton production

High Plains Cotton Belt — USDM Drought Coverage (TX/OK/KS) — weekly USDM coverage

Date	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D2+
2026-05-12	14.5	26.2	24.2	18.1	1.3	43.6
2026-05-19	15.1	25.6	21.0	19.9	1.6	42.6
2026-05-26	17.5	24.2	20.4	18.8	2.0	41.2
2026-06-02	18.5	27.4	15.6	14.5	3.6	33.7
2026-06-09	22.0	22.5	16.1	9.2	2.6	27.9
2026-06-16	15.9	22.9	15.3	9.4	2.4	27.1
2026-06-23	17.9	17.7	13.8	8.6	2.4	24.7
2026-06-30	16.8	15.6	12.9	5.5	0.6	19.0
2026-07-07	17.2	15.9	11.8	5.5	0.6	17.9
2026-07-14	16.8	15.2	11.2	5.0	0.5	16.7
2026-07-21	17.4	14.0	11.1	4.8	0.7	16.6
2026-07-28	18.8	14.6	11.3	4.9	0.7	16.9
2026-08-04	27.2	20.3	10.7	7.1	0.8	18.6
2026-08-11	21.9	27.2	12.3	10.5	0.9	23.8
2026-08-18	24.9	27.2	15.4	10.7	3.4	29.4
2026-08-25	18.9	29.3	21.7	12.0	4.8	38.5
2026-09-01	14.2	27.7	28.9	12.2	5.1	46.1
2026-09-08	18.5	23.9	29.9	17.0	5.5	52.4
2026-09-15	18.4	24.7	29.9	16.1	6.7	52.8
2026-09-22	13.2	21.1	33.1	15.7	8.3	57.2
2026-09-29	10.3	18.4	33.7	17.9	9.3	61.0
2026-10-06	11.7	22.1	29.1	13.0	5.7	47.7
2026-10-13	13.2	22.2	26.4	13.7	5.9	45.9
2026-10-20	19.2	20.4	27.2	10.7	2.5	40.4

USDA Drought Monitor · D0–D4 stacked weekly coverage · Southeast Delta states average — run drought_monitor.py --update to populate

Southeast Cotton Belt — USDM Drought Coverage (GA/MS/AL/AR/TN/NC/SC) — weekly USDM coverage

Date	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D2+
2026-05-12	2.8	14.0	34.6	40.8	7.8	83.2
2026-05-19	2.2	14.4	32.1	43.0	8.3	83.4
2026-05-26	9.2	22.5	38.2	23.8	6.3	68.3
2026-06-02	14.2	28.4	29.9	18.8	1.1	49.8
2026-06-09	16.7	24.5	30.4	14.2	1.4	46.1
2026-06-16	16.1	26.7	25.3	14.2	2.0	41.5
2026-06-23	19.7	21.3	22.7	9.4	1.9	34.1
2026-06-30	21.6	21.7	17.2	9.7	1.7	28.5
2026-07-07	21.9	22.3	14.3	11.5	1.3	27.1
2026-07-14	22.5	18.4	15.0	9.6	1.0	25.6
2026-07-21	23.3	16.1	15.2	8.6	0.6	24.3
2026-07-28	23.4	20.2	11.4	5.5	0.4	17.2
2026-08-04	27.6	20.6	9.2	4.8	0.4	14.3
2026-08-11	32.9	18.1	9.2	4.1	0.3	13.7
2026-08-18	35.9	20.3	11.1	4.0	0.3	15.4
2026-08-25	32.3	25.3	11.4	4.2	0.3	15.9
2026-09-01	34.6	29.3	12.4	4.7	0.3	17.4
2026-09-08	37.8	30.8	13.0	5.0	0.4	18.4
2026-09-15	39.6	31.8	14.9	5.2	0.5	20.5
2026-09-22	31.9	37.2	18.2	6.5	0.5	25.3
2026-09-29	29.6	32.5	24.6	8.7	0.5	33.8
2026-10-06	31.5	26.6	24.0	9.4	0.5	33.9
2026-10-13	26.8	25.0	19.8	11.1	1.4	32.3
2026-10-20	25.7	19.6	19.8	13.2	3.4	36.5

ABANDONMENT RISK

Acre Leverage

1.29M bales

per 1M planted acres — 34% of projected 2026/27 ending stocks · 34 days of use

Abandonment Risk

MODERATE

TX Jun–Aug D1+ at 34.5% — median abandonment in analog years 15.8% (n=10)

Cotton loses more planted area than any other US row crop — the gap between its best and worst harvested share since 1990 is 44.5 points, against 6.6 for corn and 3.9 for soybeans. Planted acres are therefore a weak claim on production until the Texas dryland crop survives boll set, which is what this chart tracks.

Bars = share of planted cotton acres never harvested (USDA NASS). Line = mean Texas D1+ drought coverage over June–August, the window that decides dryland survival (USDA Drought Monitor). Correlation r = +0.69 across 26 years. high drought → 25.8% median abandonment (n=8) · moderate drought → 15.8% median abandonment (n=10) · low drought → 5.8% median abandonment (n=8). Bar color marks that year's drought tier, not its outcome — drought explains roughly half the variance, and hurricane years such as 2017 destroy acres with no drought signal at all.

Cotton abandonment vs Texas summer drought coverage

Year	Abandonment %	TX Jun–Aug D1+ %	Risk tier
2000	15.9	37.4	moderate
2001	12.3	45.8	moderate
2002	11.0	31.6	moderate
2003	11.0	41.4	moderate
2004	4.4	5.4	low
2005	3.1	32.0	moderate
2006	16.6	88.1	high
2007	3.1	0.0	low
2008	20.1	59.3	high
2009	17.7	39.2	moderate
2010	2.5	6.8	low
2011	35.8	98.1	high
2012	24.0	72.5	high
2013	27.6	88.2	high
2014	16.1	62.6	high
2015	5.9	5.7	low
2016	5.6	2.7	low
2017	12.7	4.8	low
2018	29.1	53.4	high
2019	16.3	9.0	low
2020	32.1	32.5	moderate
2021	8.4	6.3	low
2022	47.0	88.4	high
2023	37.1	45.7	moderate
2024	30.6	28.5	moderate
2025	15.7	25.0	moderate

Texas plants 50% of US cotton acres but accounts for 89% of every acre abandoned since 1999; the top two states are 93%. Shares are of cumulative acres across closed crop years, so a single catastrophic year in a small state does not distort the ranking. Source: USDA NASS state planted and harvested acres. This is why the risk read above keys on Texas: the Southeast can have a poor year without moving the national crop.

Cotton abandonment share by state

State	Planted share	Abandoned share	Median rate	Worst year	Worst rate
TX	49.9%	88.7%	26.9%	2022	74.3%
OK	2.8%	4.8%	14.3%	2011	83.1%
GA	10.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1999	11.6%
NC	4.6%	0.6%	2.0%	2016	8.9%
SC	2.0%	0.6%	1.4%	2015	42.1%
AR	5.4%	0.5%	1.3%	2002	4.2%
AL	3.6%	0.5%	1.5%	2000	10.2%
MS	5.7%	0.5%	1.2%	2011	4.0%
LA	2.6%	0.4%	2.2%	2008	22.0%
TN	3.3%	0.4%	1.8%	2015	9.7%
KS	0.7%	0.4%	8.5%	2008	28.6%
MO	2.8%	0.4%	2.5%	2012	5.7%
FL	0.8%	0.2%	2.2%	2018	20.5%
CA	3.2%	0.2%	0.9%	2023	3.3%
AZ	1.5%	0.1%	1.0%	2016	4.1%
VA	0.7%	0.1%	1.2%	2003	4.5%

Go Deeper

Positioning: Softs →
Full cotton positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest, by week of year.

US Crop Weather →
ERA5 weather for seven US crop regions.

Drought Monitor →
Drought maps for the agricultural regions.

CONAB Brazil →
Brazil's soy, corn and cotton estimates.

WASDE Grain Report →
The monthly USDA balance sheets.