Energy Market Intelligence SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com Report date: May 29, 2026 Data as of: EIA 2026-05-15 | COT 2026-05-19 Henry Hub Spot Price: $3.070/MMBtu HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/energy_market_intelligence_15a87867.html ──────────────────────────────────── AT A GLANCE Henry Hub Spot Price : $3.070/MMBtu EIA Storage (L48) : 2,391 Bcf (+98 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg) NG MM Net Position : -96,289 cts (50th percentile - Neutral) ENSO Phase : Neutral (ONI +0.11°C FMA 2026) ──────────────────────────────────── EIA NATURAL GAS STORAGE — LAST 8 WEEKS | Date | Storage (Bcf) | vs. 5yr Avg (Bcf) | Prior Year (Bcf) | | ---------- | ------------- | ----------------- | ---------------- | | 2026-03-27 | 1,851 | +45 | 1,773 | | 2026-04-03 | 1,900 | +58 | 1,830 | | 2026-04-10 | 1,960 | +72 | 1,846 | | 2026-04-17 | 2,063 | +112 | 1,934 | | 2026-04-24 | 2,142 | +119 | 2,041 | | 2026-05-01 | 2,205 | +100 | 2,145 | | 2026-05-08 | 2,290 | +97 | 2,255 | | 2026-05-15 | 2,391 | +98 | 2,375 | Storage is modestly above the 5-year average (+98 Bcf) — mild bearish tilt, weather-dependent. ──────────────────────────────────── COT POSITIONING — NATURAL GAS (NYMEX) — LAST 8 WEEKS | Date | MM Net | MM WoW | Comm Net | Open Interest | | ---------- | -------- | ------- | -------- | ------------- | | 2026-03-31 | -68,022 | -13,492 | +149,081 | 1,525,975 | | 2026-04-07 | -86,410 | -18,388 | +162,875 | 1,570,957 | | 2026-04-14 | -114,268 | -27,857 | +173,318 | 1,599,878 | | 2026-04-21 | -100,497 | +13,770 | +152,458 | 1,591,158 | | 2026-04-28 | -97,345 | +3,152 | +151,781 | 1,588,956 | | 2026-05-05 | -107,457 | -10,111 | +153,553 | 1,640,055 | | 2026-05-12 | -119,870 | -12,414 | +159,391 | 1,641,104 | | 2026-05-19 | -96,289 | +23,582 | +171,893 | 1,614,121 | Natural Gas — managed money is neutral (50th percentile), net -96,289 contracts. MM added 23,582 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers are net long at +171,893 contracts. MM share of open interest: 62.7%. ──────────────────────────────────── TEMPERATURE & DEMAND OUTLOOK (HDD / CDD) Demand Signal: Bullish (weighted score: +4.07) Rationale: Above-normal heating demand expected — New England colder than normal, New York colder than normal HDD = Heating Degree Days; CDD = Cooling Degree Days. Deviations vs. 30-yr ERA5 normals. Positive HDD dev = colder than normal = bullish gas demand. Positive CDD dev = hotter = bullish. | Region | HDD Dev (obs) | CDD Dev (obs) | 7-day HDD vs Normal | | ------------ | ------------- | ------------- | ------------------- | | New England | +3.1 | -0.3 | +8 | | New York | +6.2 | -1.0 | +6 | | Mid-Atlantic | +5.7 | -2.1 | -2 | | Midwest | +0.6 | -2.6 | -12 | | Southeast | -0.1 | +2.6 | -1 | | Texas | -0.0 | -0.9 | +0 | | Southwest | -1.6 | +3.9 | -17 | | Pacific NW | -4.1 | -0.3 | -1 | | California | -1.7 | -0.5 | -1 | ──────────────────────────────────── ENSO STATUS & ENERGY MARKET CONTEXT Status: ENSO: Neutral (ONI +0.11°C) — trending warmer, watch for El Niño development Phase: Neutral ONI: +0.11°C (FMA 2026) Energy Market Implication: Neutral ENSO conditions offer no systematic temperature bias. Regional weather patterns will dominate seasonal demand. ──────────────────────────────────── CRUDE OIL COT ANALYSIS WTI Crude Oil — managed money is moderately short (23th percentile), net +138,774 contracts. MM added 9,192 net contracts week-over-week. ──────────────────────────────────── PETROLEUM PRODUCT DEMAND Data as of: 2026-05-15 Gasoline 4-wk avg : 8,860 Mbbl/day (+1.4% YoY) Distillate 4-wk avg: 3,614 Mbbl/day (+4.1% YoY) Gasoline = passenger transport demand. Distillate = trucking, industrial, and heating demand. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. | Date | Gasoline (Mbbl/d) | YoY % | Distillate (Mbbl/d) | YoY % | | ---------- | ----------------- | ----- | ------------------- | ------ | | 2026-03-27 | 8,895 | +2.2% | 4,018 | +9.8% | | 2026-04-03 | 8,726 | +1.6% | 4,016 | +1.3% | | 2026-04-10 | 8,816 | +7.4% | 3,877 | -0.5% | | 2026-04-17 | 8,848 | -3.8% | 3,993 | +3.3% | | 2026-04-24 | 8,953 | +0.1% | 4,011 | +15.9% | | 2026-05-01 | 9,015 | +1.1% | 3,837 | -4.5% | | 2026-05-08 | 8,932 | -0.5% | 3,734 | -9.2% | | 2026-05-15 | 8,860 | +1.4% | 3,614 | +4.1% | ──────────────────────────────────── 3-2-1 CRACK SPREAD — REFINERY MARGIN SIGNAL Latest (2026-05-22): $54.54/bbl 5-day avg: $53.87/bbl Percentile vs. full history: 96th — Wide — strong refiner incentive to process crude Formula: (2 × RBOB Gasoline + ULSD − 3 × WTI) ÷ 3 in $/barrel. Wide spread = strong product demand relative to crude → bullish crude throughput. Compressed or negative = demand weakness or crude premium → bearish for refinery runs. | Date | 3-2-1 Crack ($/bbl) | 5-day Avg ($/bbl) | | ---------- | ------------------- | ----------------- | | 2026-05-13 | $55.84 | $57.40 | | 2026-05-14 | $54.47 | $57.22 | | 2026-05-15 | $54.98 | $56.63 | | 2026-05-18 | $54.24 | $55.82 | | 2026-05-19 | $54.00 | $54.71 | | 2026-05-20 | $54.65 | $54.47 | | 2026-05-21 | $51.92 | $53.96 | | 2026-05-22 | $54.54 | $53.87 | ──────────────────────────────────── DATA SOURCES • U.S. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report • CFTC Disaggregated COT (Natural Gas, Crude Oil) • NOAA ENSO — Climate Prediction Center • Open-Meteo GFS Weather Model • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. © 2026 SoftSignal LLC