Energy Market Intelligence

Weather: 2026-07-04 Storage: 2026-06-26 COT: 2026-06-23

Storage

2,922 Bcf

Working gas L48 · 2026-06-26 · +151 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg

Henry Hub

$3.330/MMBtu

Spot price · week of 2026-07-03

NG MM Net

-82,812 cts

Managed money net · 2026-06-23

NG MM Gross Long

202,818 cts

Managed money gross long contracts

NG MM Gross Short

285,630 cts

Managed money gross short contracts

ENSO Phase

Neutral

RONI -0.06°C · MAM 2026

ENSO context: Neutral ENSO conditions offer no systematic temperature bias. Regional weather patterns will dominate seasonal demand.

Blue bars = colder than normal (bullish gas demand). Red bars = warmer than normal (bearish gas demand). HDD = heating demand; CDD = cooling demand; base 65°F.

HDD and CDD deviation from 30-year normal by energy region

Region	HDD deviation (°F·day)	CDD deviation (°F·day)
New England	-0.2	+14.3
New York	-0.0	+9.1
Mid-Atlantic	-0.0	+8.2
Midwest	-0.1	+3.2
Southeast	+0.0	+1.7
Texas	+0.0	+4.6
Southwest	-0.1	+2.6
Pacific NW	-0.7	-0.7
California	+0.5	-1.0

New England

CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate

HDD today 0.0 -0.2 vs. normal

CDD today 21.8 +14.3 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +2

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -0

→ Near normal

New York

New York state — Transco Zone 6

HDD today 0.0 -0.0 vs. normal

CDD today 18.5 +9.1 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +0

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -0

→ Near normal

Mid-Atlantic

DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate

HDD today 0.0 -0.0 vs. normal

CDD today 18.9 +8.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -0

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -0

→ Near normal

Midwest

MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent

HDD today 0.0 -0.1 vs. normal

CDD today 15.1 +3.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -0

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -0

→ Near normal

Southeast

AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability

HDD today 0.0 +0.0 vs. normal

CDD today 16.9 +1.7 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +0

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +0

→ Near normal

Texas

Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub

HDD today 0.0 +0.0 vs. normal

CDD today 22.6 +4.6 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -0

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +0

→ Near normal

Southwest

AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)

HDD today 0.0 -0.1 vs. normal

CDD today 21.7 +2.6 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -1

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -0

→ Near normal

Pacific NW

WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest

HDD today 1.9 -0.7 vs. normal

CDD today 1.3 -0.7 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -4

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -4

↓ Warmer than normal

California

California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory

HDD today 1.1 +0.5 vs. normal

CDD today 6.1 -1.0 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +1

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -4

→ Near normal

Regional temperature and HDD/CDD deviation summary by energy region

Region	Area	HDD Today	HDD Dev	CDD Today	CDD Dev	7-Day HDD Dev	8-14 Day HDD Dev	Signal
New England	CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate	0.0	-0.2	21.8	+14.3	+2	-0	→ Near normal
New York	New York state — Transco Zone 6	0.0	-0.0	18.5	+9.1	+0	-0	→ Near normal
Mid-Atlantic	DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate	0.0	-0.0	18.9	+8.2	-0	-0	→ Near normal
Midwest	MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent	0.0	-0.1	15.1	+3.2	-0	-0	→ Near normal
Southeast	AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability	0.0	+0.0	16.9	+1.7	+0	+0	→ Near normal
Texas	Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub	0.0	+0.0	22.6	+4.6	-0	+0	→ Near normal
Southwest	AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)	0.0	-0.1	21.7	+2.6	-1	-0	→ Near normal
Pacific NW	WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest	1.9	-0.7	1.3	-0.7	-4	-4	↓ Warmer than normal
California	California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory	1.1	+0.5	6.1	-1.0	+1	-4	→ Near normal

Blue = colder than normal (↑ heating demand, bullish for gas). Red = warmer than normal (↓ heating demand, bearish for gas). State shading reflects the dominant energy region assignment.

US temperature anomaly by energy region for choropleth map

Region	Temperature Anomaly Signal (°F·day)	Direction
New England	+14.55	Warmer than normal
New York	+9.09	Warmer than normal
Mid-Atlantic	+8.18	Warmer than normal
Midwest	+3.34	Warmer than normal
Southeast	+1.67	Warmer than normal
Texas	+4.56	Warmer than normal
Southwest	+2.75	Warmer than normal
Pacific NW	-0.03	Colder than normal
California	-1.43	Colder than normal

HDD deviation = forecast minus 30-yr normal. Positive = colder than normal. Gold diamonds show last week's forecast for the same 8–14 day window — the gap is the forecast revision direction.

7-day and 8-14 day HDD forecast deviation by energy region

Region	Days 1–7 HDD vs. Normal	Days 8–14 HDD vs. Normal	8–14 Day Prior Forecast	Revision
New England	+1.9	-0.1	-0.5	+0.4
New York	+0.2	-0.0	-0.1	+0.1
Mid-Atlantic	-0.1	-0.1	-0.1	+0.0
Midwest	-0.5	-0.2	-0.2	+0.0
Southeast	+0.0	+0.0	—	—
Texas	-0.0	+0.0	—	—
Southwest	-0.6	-0.3	-0.3	+0.0
Pacific NW	-3.6	-4.5	-7.7	+3.2
California	+1.0	-3.8	-3.9	+0.1

📍 Regional Deep Dive — 16-Day Forecast

Select Region

Pacific NW is running 0.7 HDD·day warmer than normal today. Outlook: the 7-day outlook is near normal; the 8–14 day window returns near normal.

Solid lines = GFS model forecast (Open-Meteo). Dotted lines = 30-year climate normal (1991–2020 ERA5 baseline). Gold vertical line = today (separates actuals from forecast). Base temperature 65°F. Values are population-weighted within each energy region.

16-day HDD and CDD forecast vs 30-year normal, population-weighted by energy region. Select region buttons to view all nine US energy regions.

Date	Region	HDD	HDD Normal	HDD Deviation	CDD	CDD Normal	CDD Deviation	Is Forecast
2026-06-27	Pacific NW	6.5	2.7	+3.8	0.0	2.1	-2.1	Actual
2026-06-28	Pacific NW	6.0	2.6	+3.3	0.0	2.2	-2.2	Actual
2026-06-29	Pacific NW	6.6	2.6	+4.0	0.0	2.3	-2.3	Actual
2026-06-30	Pacific NW	6.6	2.4	+4.2	0.1	2.2	-2.1	Actual
2026-07-01	Pacific NW	7.4	2.4	+5.0	0.1	2.3	-2.2	Actual
2026-07-02	Pacific NW	5.4	2.7	+2.7	0.1	2.4	-2.3	Actual
2026-07-03	Pacific NW	1.8	2.7	-0.9	1.0	2.2	-1.2	Actual
2026-07-04	Pacific NW	1.9	2.6	-0.7	1.3	2.0	-0.7	Forecast
2026-07-05	Pacific NW	2.2	2.2	-0.0	1.3	2.0	-0.7	Forecast
2026-07-06	Pacific NW	0.4	1.6	-1.3	2.6	1.9	+0.7	Forecast
2026-07-07	Pacific NW	0.0	1.4	-1.4	4.4	1.8	+2.6	Forecast
2026-07-08	Pacific NW	0.2	1.4	-1.2	2.2	2.5	-0.3	Forecast
2026-07-09	Pacific NW	2.4	1.2	+1.2	0.6	3.0	-2.4	Forecast
2026-07-10	Pacific NW	1.0	1.3	-0.3	1.1	2.9	-1.8	Forecast
2026-07-11	Pacific NW	0.4	1.1	-0.7	2.9	2.9	-0.0	Forecast
2026-07-12	Pacific NW	2.0	1.1	+0.8	0.9	3.3	-2.5	Forecast
2026-07-13	Pacific NW	0.9	1.2	-0.3	3.1	3.4	-0.3	Forecast
2026-07-14	Pacific NW	0.0	1.1	-1.1	6.5	3.1	+3.4	Forecast
2026-07-15	Pacific NW	0.0	1.0	-1.0	9.3	3.4	+5.9	Forecast
2026-07-16	Pacific NW	0.0	1.0	-1.0	8.6	3.6	+5.1	Forecast
2026-07-17	Pacific NW	0.0	1.2	-1.2	11.2	3.9	+7.3	Forecast
2026-07-18	Pacific NW	0.0	1.2	-1.2	7.0	3.6	+3.4	Forecast
2026-07-19	Pacific NW	0.0	0.9	-0.9	4.6	3.5	+1.0	Forecast

Weekly EIA storage report. Red = current; gold = 5-year average; teal = prior year.

EIA natural gas working gas in storage, weekly, with 5-year average and surplus deficit

Date	Storage (Bcf)	Wk Change (Bcf)	5-Yr Avg (Bcf)	Prior Year (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (%)
2026-01-02	3,244	-120	3,165	3,373	+79	+2.5%
2026-01-09	3,174	-70	2,987	3,115	+187	+6.3%
2026-01-16	3,054	-120	2,791	2,892	+263	+9.4%
2026-01-23	2,813	-241	2,565	2,571	+248	+9.7%
2026-01-30	2,454	-359	2,393	2,397	+61	+2.5%
2026-02-06	2,202	-252	2,257	2,297	-55	-2.4%
2026-02-13	2,059	-143	2,098	2,101	-39	-1.9%
2026-02-20	2,007	-52	1,963	1,840	+44	+2.2%
2026-02-27	1,876	-131	1,887	1,760	-11	-0.6%
2026-03-06	1,838	-38	1,843	1,698	-5	-0.3%
2026-03-13	1,872	+34	1,816	1,707	+56	+3.1%
2026-03-20	1,818	-54	1,814	1,744	+4	+0.2%
2026-03-27	1,851	+33	1,806	1,773	+45	+2.5%
2026-04-03	1,900	+49	1,842	1,830	+58	+3.1%
2026-04-10	1,960	+60	1,888	1,846	+72	+3.8%
2026-04-17	2,063	+103	1,951	1,934	+112	+5.7%
2026-04-24	2,142	+79	2,023	2,041	+119	+5.9%
2026-05-01	2,205	+63	2,105	2,145	+100	+4.7%
2026-05-08	2,290	+85	2,193	2,255	+97	+4.4%
2026-05-15	2,391	+101	2,293	2,375	+98	+4.3%
2026-05-22	2,483	+92	2,388	2,476	+95	+4.0%
2026-05-29	2,578	+95	2,492	2,598	+86	+3.4%
2026-06-05	2,686	+108	2,567	2,707	+119	+4.6%
2026-06-12	2,759	+73	2,645	2,802	+114	+4.3%
2026-06-19	2,835	+76	2,723	2,898	+112	+4.1%
2026-06-26	2,922	+87	2,771	2,953	+151	+5.5%

Monthly averages in Bcfd. Power burn vs. 5-yr avg shows demand-side pressure; production and LNG provide supply context. EIA data; latest available ~2 months lag.

Henry Hub weekly average spot price. EIA daily series → weekly average. Regional basis data (Algonquin, Transco Z6, Chicago, SoCal, Opal) pending NGI data feed subscription.

CFTC COT Positioning

Managed money holds a net position of -82,812 contracts (24th percentile vs. full history since 2010). Week-over-week change: +1,860 contracts. Gross long: 202,818 (42th pct) · Gross short: 285,630 (81th pct).
Positioning at historically neutral levels.

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Gold line = Henry Hub weekly spot price (EIA).

Natural Gas CFTC managed money and commercial net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Commercial Net	Open Interest
2025-07-01	-51,629	+9,096	+73,159	1,522,714
2025-07-08	-47,125	+4,504	+69,161	1,543,718
2025-07-15	-19,525	+27,600	+60,219	1,575,124
2025-07-22	-30,039	-10,514	+62,953	1,552,964
2025-07-29	-13,005	+17,035	+69,767	1,571,074
2025-08-05	-27,727	-14,722	+78,446	1,629,552
2025-08-12	-50,752	-23,025	+81,915	1,641,970
2025-08-19	-36,785	+13,967	+91,812	1,627,068
2025-08-26	-44,343	-7,559	+89,466	1,633,747
2025-09-02	-36,950	+7,393	+89,711	1,650,508
2025-09-09	-24,979	+11,971	+83,539	1,647,371
2025-09-16	-23,288	+1,692	+104,627	1,655,846
2025-09-23	-63,286	-39,998	+122,418	1,646,354
2025-09-30	-31,367	+31,919	+118,220	1,669,212
2025-10-07	-32,765	-1,399	+134,934	1,653,078
2025-10-14	-75,067	-42,302	+144,466	1,689,162
2025-10-21	-45,289	+29,778	+150,817	1,697,865
2025-10-28	-41,787	+3,502	+139,194	1,639,227
2025-11-04	-44,315	-2,528	+127,377	1,587,905
2025-11-10	-52,984	-8,669	+124,806	1,548,544
2025-11-18	-59,648	-6,662	+121,829	1,522,819
2025-11-25	-65,361	-5,713	+125,612	1,504,302
2025-12-02	-39,905	+25,456	+113,100	1,535,955
2025-12-09	-30,862	+9,043	+85,247	1,564,010
2025-12-16	-65,722	-34,862	+118,265	1,592,965
2025-12-23	-105,906	-40,183	+148,682	1,575,569
2025-12-30	-83,730	+22,176	+145,146	1,545,577
2026-01-06	-100,174	-16,444	+155,886	1,610,205
2026-01-13	-104,049	-3,875	+174,709	1,652,342
2026-01-20	-77,014	+27,035	+182,171	1,636,626
2026-01-27	-21,970	+55,044	+152,283	1,646,811
2026-02-03	+106	+22,076	+163,609	1,676,452
2026-02-10	-8,128	-8,234	+160,031	1,643,074
2026-02-17	-26,840	-18,712	+176,146	1,633,915
2026-02-24	-75,706	-48,866	+184,091	1,630,910
2026-03-03	-75,910	-203	+184,809	1,621,447
2026-03-10	-62,574	+13,335	+164,651	1,584,208
2026-03-17	-44,600	+17,975	+158,122	1,577,306
2026-03-24	-54,529	-9,930	+154,535	1,520,594
2026-03-31	-68,022	-13,492	+149,081	1,525,975
2026-04-07	-86,410	-18,388	+162,875	1,570,957
2026-04-14	-114,268	-27,857	+173,318	1,599,878
2026-04-21	-100,497	+13,770	+152,458	1,591,158
2026-04-28	-97,345	+3,152	+151,781	1,588,956
2026-05-05	-107,457	-10,111	+153,553	1,640,055
2026-05-12	-119,870	-12,414	+159,391	1,641,104
2026-05-19	-96,289	+23,582	+171,893	1,614,121
2026-05-26	-134,104	-37,816	+190,715	1,647,784
2026-06-02	-114,730	+19,373	+174,000	1,673,295
2026-06-09	-122,613	-7,882	+175,868	1,647,699
2026-06-16	-84,672	+37,941	+161,890	1,656,030
2026-06-23	-82,812	+1,860	+162,053	1,623,076

Supporting Energy Markets — Crude Oil & Heating Oil

WTI Crude Oil MM net: +100,29510th pct WoW: -17,590 L: 207,881 (17th) · S: 107,586 (86th)

WTI Crude Oil CFTC managed money net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-07-01	+178,100	+13,541	2,621,571
2025-07-08	+148,106	-29,994	2,628,528
2025-07-15	+96,106	-52,000	2,698,109
2025-07-22	+86,088	-10,017	2,529,772
2025-07-29	+87,840	+1,752	2,592,528
2025-08-05	+78,826	-9,014	2,598,545
2025-08-12	+49,264	-29,563	2,570,247
2025-08-19	+29,686	-19,578	2,399,868
2025-08-26	+24,225	-5,461	2,385,071
2025-09-02	+27,287	+3,062	2,462,489
2025-09-09	+12,657	-14,630	2,439,460
2025-09-16	+38,904	+26,247	2,452,877
2025-09-23	+29,410	-9,494	2,358,166
2025-09-30	+18,386	-11,024	2,469,965
2025-10-07	-15,671	-34,057	2,492,297
2025-10-14	-25,085	-9,414	2,595,395
2025-10-21	-29,995	-4,911	2,468,711
2025-10-28	+4,590	+34,584	2,375,562
2025-11-04	+22,651	+18,061	2,409,632
2025-11-10	+3,178	-19,473	2,390,711
2025-11-18	-3,321	-6,499	2,242,146
2025-11-25	-28,555	-25,234	2,314,741
2025-12-02	-29,425	-870	2,335,339
2025-12-09	+10,745	+40,169	2,308,356
2025-12-16	+11,091	+347	2,322,931
2025-12-23	+17,666	+6,575	2,267,166
2025-12-30	+19,711	+2,045	2,295,914
2026-01-06	+22,580	+2,871	2,382,115
2026-01-13	+42,507	+19,926	2,533,712
2026-01-20	+53,434	+10,927	2,438,338
2026-01-27	+62,991	+9,557	2,585,126
2026-02-03	+80,377	+17,387	2,688,721
2026-02-10	+86,314	+5,936	2,680,183
2026-02-17	+81,219	-5,095	2,577,058
2026-02-24	+98,187	+16,967	2,724,561
2026-03-03	+108,421	+10,235	2,889,103
2026-03-10	+136,419	+27,998	3,138,821
2026-03-17	+147,861	+11,442	3,011,766
2026-03-24	+148,985	+1,125	2,952,171
2026-03-31	+130,717	-18,270	3,039,583
2026-04-07	+137,838	+7,121	3,128,586
2026-04-14	+144,243	+6,406	3,085,567
2026-04-21	+143,401	-843	2,804,594
2026-04-28	+135,501	-7,900	2,893,767
2026-05-05	+131,956	-3,545	3,009,504
2026-05-12	+129,583	-2,373	3,032,488
2026-05-19	+138,774	+9,192	2,778,530
2026-05-26	+115,762	-23,012	2,742,161
2026-06-02	+124,259	+8,496	2,761,111
2026-06-09	+123,207	-1,052	2,754,041
2026-06-16	+117,885	-5,323	2,612,673
2026-06-23	+100,295	-17,590	2,533,875

NY Harbor ULSD MM net: +6,25434th pct WoW: -3,192 L: 29,762 (27th) · S: 23,508 (56th)

NY Harbor ULSD CFTC managed money net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-07-01	+27,249	-85	344,106
2025-07-08	+33,049	+5,800	367,229
2025-07-15	+40,604	+7,555	370,715
2025-07-22	+38,945	-1,658	384,477
2025-07-29	+41,206	+2,261	375,269
2025-08-05	+26,899	-14,307	369,481
2025-08-12	+27,770	+871	380,173
2025-08-19	+32,412	+4,643	382,074
2025-08-26	+33,105	+693	378,648
2025-09-02	+39,045	+5,940	377,552
2025-09-09	+25,805	-13,241	396,687
2025-09-16	+24,055	-1,750	410,850
2025-09-23	+21,511	-2,543	425,591
2025-09-30	+32,465	+10,953	416,527
2025-10-07	+18,297	-14,168	410,343
2025-10-14	+11,856	-6,441	420,147
2025-10-21	+11,564	-293	408,678
2025-10-28	+25,793	+14,230	385,034
2025-11-04	+32,089	+6,296	376,492
2025-11-10	+37,458	+5,370	382,206
2025-11-18	+37,615	+156	402,936
2025-11-25	+21,786	-15,829	356,805
2025-12-02	+21,015	-771	361,751
2025-12-09	+19,785	-1,230	370,784
2025-12-16	+12,526	-7,259	364,343
2025-12-23	+3,180	-9,346	360,436
2025-12-30	+3,627	+447	353,481
2026-01-06	+577	-3,050	363,276
2026-01-13	-5,942	-6,519	381,401
2026-01-20	-1,110	+4,832	412,974
2026-01-27	+10,612	+11,722	400,218
2026-02-03	+24,325	+13,714	384,174
2026-02-10	+20,315	-4,009	378,033
2026-02-17	+12,592	-7,724	394,972
2026-02-24	+22,524	+9,933	378,635
2026-03-03	+22,702	+178	325,938
2026-03-10	+19,776	-2,927	304,224
2026-03-17	+23,406	+3,630	285,275
2026-03-24	+18,625	-4,781	275,128
2026-03-31	+19,707	+1,082	250,551
2026-04-07	+18,062	-1,645	245,616
2026-04-14	+16,745	-1,317	259,082
2026-04-21	+14,014	-2,731	263,440
2026-04-28	+12,577	-1,437	254,558
2026-05-05	+11,768	-809	257,574
2026-05-12	+9,606	-2,162	275,753
2026-05-19	+10,793	+1,188	270,531
2026-05-26	+7,730	-3,064	254,519
2026-06-02	+12,160	+4,430	256,065
2026-06-09	+9,605	-2,555	261,554
2026-06-16	+9,447	-158	279,085
2026-06-23	+6,254	-3,192	276,889

4-week rolling average in thousand barrels/day. Product supplied is EIA's proxy for domestic consumption. Gasoline reflects passenger transport demand; distillate captures trucking, industrial, and heating demand. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday release).

3-2-1 crack spread: (2 × RBOB + ULSD − 3 × WTI) ÷ 3 in $/barrel. Measures refinery margin and the incentive to process crude. Wide spreads indicate strong product demand relative to crude; compressed or negative spreads signal demand weakness or crude premium. Derived from front-month futures. Raw component prices not shown.