Blue bars = colder than normal (bullish gas demand). Red bars = warmer than normal (bearish gas demand). HDD = heating demand; CDD = cooling demand; base 65°F.
| Region | HDD deviation (°F·day) | CDD deviation (°F·day) |
|---|---|---|
| New England | -0.1 | +1.9 |
| New York | -0.0 | +2.5 |
| Mid-Atlantic | -0.0 | +0.3 |
| Midwest | -0.0 | +1.3 |
| Southeast | +0.0 | +0.7 |
| Texas | +0.0 | +0.5 |
| Southwest | -0.0 | +6.0 |
| Pacific NW | +0.3 | -0.8 |
| California | +0.1 | -0.4 |
| Region | Area | HDD Today | HDD Dev | CDD Today | CDD Dev | 7-Day HDD Dev | 8-14 Day HDD Dev | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate | 0.0 | -0.1 | 8.7 | +1.9 | -0 | +4 | → Near normal |
| New York | New York state — Transco Zone 6 | 0.0 | -0.0 | 11.8 | +2.5 | -0 | +0 | → Near normal |
| Mid-Atlantic | DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate | 0.0 | -0.0 | 10.9 | +0.3 | -0 | -0 | → Near normal |
| Midwest | MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent | 0.0 | -0.0 | 13.6 | +1.3 | -0 | -0 | → Near normal |
| Southeast | AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability | 0.0 | +0.0 | 16.3 | +0.7 | +0 | +0 | → Near normal |
| Texas | Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub | 0.0 | +0.0 | 19.6 | +0.5 | +0 | +0 | → Near normal |
| Southwest | AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming) | 0.0 | -0.0 | 25.4 | +6.0 | -0 | -0 | → Near normal |
| Pacific NW | WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest | 1.3 | +0.3 | 2.1 | -0.8 | -0 | +2 | → Near normal |
| California | California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory | 0.7 | +0.1 | 7.6 | -0.4 | -0 | +0 | → Near normal |
Blue = colder than normal (↑ heating demand, bullish for gas). Red = warmer than normal (↓ heating demand, bearish for gas). State shading reflects the dominant energy region assignment.
| Region | Temperature Anomaly Signal (°F·day) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| New England | +2.05 | Warmer than normal |
| New York | +2.47 | Warmer than normal |
| Mid-Atlantic | +0.33 | Warmer than normal |
| Midwest | +1.33 | Warmer than normal |
| Southeast | +0.72 | Warmer than normal |
| Texas | +0.47 | Warmer than normal |
| Southwest | +6.01 | Warmer than normal |
| Pacific NW | -1.06 | Colder than normal |
| California | -0.51 | Colder than normal |
HDD deviation = forecast minus 30-yr normal. Positive = colder than normal. Gold diamonds show last week's forecast for the same 8–14 day window — the gap is the forecast revision direction.
| Region | Days 1–7 HDD vs. Normal | Days 8–14 HDD vs. Normal | 8–14 Day Prior Forecast | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | -0.5 | +4.3 | -0.5 | +4.8 |
| New York | -0.1 | +0.5 | -0.2 | +0.7 |
| Mid-Atlantic | -0.1 | -0.0 | -0.0 | +0.0 |
| Midwest | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| Southeast | +0.0 | +0.0 | — | — |
| Texas | +0.0 | +0.0 | — | — |
| Southwest | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| Pacific NW | -0.2 | +1.7 | -6.1 | +7.8 |
| California | -0.5 | +0.3 | -3.9 | +4.2 |
Solid lines = GFS model forecast (Open-Meteo). Dotted lines = 30-year climate normal (1991–2020 ERA5 baseline). Gold vertical line = today (separates actuals from forecast). Base temperature 65°F. Values are population-weighted within each energy region.
| Date | Region | HDD | HDD Normal | HDD Deviation | CDD | CDD Normal | CDD Deviation | Is Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Pacific NW | 2.4 | 2.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 2.0 | -1.1 | Actual |
| 2026-07-05 | Pacific NW | 2.5 | 2.2 | +0.3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -0.8 | Actual |
| 2026-07-06 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.6 | -1.6 | 2.1 | 1.9 | +0.2 | Actual |
| 2026-07-07 | Pacific NW | 0.4 | 1.4 | -1.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | +0.4 | Actual |
| 2026-07-08 | Pacific NW | 1.1 | 1.4 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.5 | Actual |
| 2026-07-09 | Pacific NW | 1.8 | 1.2 | +0.6 | 1.3 | 3.0 | -1.7 | Actual |
| 2026-07-10 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | -0.4 | Actual |
| 2026-07-11 | Pacific NW | 1.3 | 1.1 | +0.3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | -0.8 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-12 | Pacific NW | 4.3 | 1.1 | +3.1 | 1.4 | 3.3 | -2.0 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-13 | Pacific NW | 1.9 | 1.2 | +0.7 | 2.1 | 3.4 | -1.3 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-14 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.1 | -1.1 | 4.7 | 3.1 | +1.6 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-15 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | +0.5 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-16 | Pacific NW | 0.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 | 2.6 | 3.6 | -1.0 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-17 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 5.6 | 3.9 | +1.7 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-18 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 1.2 | -1.2 | 7.5 | 3.6 | +3.9 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-19 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 5.1 | 3.5 | +1.5 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-20 | Pacific NW | 0.1 | 0.9 | -0.8 | 3.0 | 3.7 | -0.7 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-21 | Pacific NW | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | -1.4 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-22 | Pacific NW | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.4 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -2.2 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-23 | Pacific NW | 1.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | 2.0 | 4.7 | -2.7 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-24 | Pacific NW | 5.8 | 0.9 | +5.0 | 0.4 | 4.6 | -4.2 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-25 | Pacific NW | 1.8 | 0.6 | +1.2 | 0.4 | 4.3 | -3.9 | Forecast |
| 2026-07-26 | Pacific NW | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | -0.4 | Forecast |
Weekly EIA storage report. Red = current; gold = 5-year average; teal = prior year.
| Date | Storage (Bcf) | Wk Change (Bcf) | 5-Yr Avg (Bcf) | Prior Year (Bcf) | Surplus/Deficit (Bcf) | Surplus/Deficit (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | 3,174 | -70 | 2,987 | 3,115 | +187 | +6.3% |
| 2026-01-16 | 3,054 | -120 | 2,791 | 2,892 | +263 | +9.4% |
| 2026-01-23 | 2,813 | -241 | 2,565 | 2,571 | +248 | +9.7% |
| 2026-01-30 | 2,454 | -359 | 2,393 | 2,397 | +61 | +2.5% |
| 2026-02-06 | 2,202 | -252 | 2,257 | 2,297 | -55 | -2.4% |
| 2026-02-13 | 2,059 | -143 | 2,098 | 2,101 | -39 | -1.9% |
| 2026-02-20 | 2,007 | -52 | 1,963 | 1,840 | +44 | +2.2% |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,876 | -131 | 1,887 | 1,760 | -11 | -0.6% |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,838 | -38 | 1,843 | 1,698 | -5 | -0.3% |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,872 | +34 | 1,816 | 1,707 | +56 | +3.1% |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,818 | -54 | 1,814 | 1,744 | +4 | +0.2% |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,851 | +33 | 1,806 | 1,773 | +45 | +2.5% |
| 2026-04-03 | 1,900 | +49 | 1,842 | 1,830 | +58 | +3.1% |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,960 | +60 | 1,888 | 1,846 | +72 | +3.8% |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,063 | +103 | 1,951 | 1,934 | +112 | +5.7% |
| 2026-04-24 | 2,142 | +79 | 2,023 | 2,041 | +119 | +5.9% |
| 2026-05-01 | 2,205 | +63 | 2,105 | 2,145 | +100 | +4.7% |
| 2026-05-08 | 2,290 | +85 | 2,193 | 2,255 | +97 | +4.4% |
| 2026-05-15 | 2,391 | +101 | 2,293 | 2,375 | +98 | +4.3% |
| 2026-05-22 | 2,483 | +92 | 2,388 | 2,476 | +95 | +4.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | 2,578 | +95 | 2,492 | 2,598 | +86 | +3.4% |
| 2026-06-05 | 2,686 | +108 | 2,567 | 2,707 | +119 | +4.6% |
| 2026-06-12 | 2,759 | +73 | 2,645 | 2,802 | +114 | +4.3% |
| 2026-06-19 | 2,835 | +76 | 2,723 | 2,898 | +112 | +4.1% |
| 2026-06-26 | 2,922 | +87 | 2,771 | 2,953 | +151 | +5.5% |
| 2026-07-03 | 2,983 | +61 | 2,827 | 3,006 | +156 | +5.5% |
Monthly averages in Bcfd. Power burn vs. 5-yr avg shows demand-side pressure; production and LNG provide supply context. EIA data; latest available ~2 months lag.
Henry Hub weekly average spot price. EIA daily series → weekly average. Regional basis data (Algonquin, Transco Z6, Chicago, SoCal, Opal) pending NGI data feed subscription.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Gold line = Henry Hub weekly spot price (EIA).
| Date | MM Net (contracts) | MM Week-over-Week | Commercial Net | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | -19,525 | +27,600 | +60,219 | 1,575,124 |
| 2025-07-22 | -30,039 | -10,514 | +62,953 | 1,552,964 |
| 2025-07-29 | -13,005 | +17,035 | +69,767 | 1,571,074 |
| 2025-08-05 | -27,727 | -14,722 | +78,446 | 1,629,552 |
| 2025-08-12 | -50,752 | -23,025 | +81,915 | 1,641,970 |
| 2025-08-19 | -36,785 | +13,967 | +91,812 | 1,627,068 |
| 2025-08-26 | -44,343 | -7,559 | +89,466 | 1,633,747 |
| 2025-09-02 | -36,950 | +7,393 | +89,711 | 1,650,508 |
| 2025-09-09 | -24,979 | +11,971 | +83,539 | 1,647,371 |
| 2025-09-16 | -23,288 | +1,692 | +104,627 | 1,655,846 |
| 2025-09-23 | -63,286 | -39,998 | +122,418 | 1,646,354 |
| 2025-09-30 | -31,367 | +31,919 | +118,220 | 1,669,212 |
| 2025-10-07 | -32,765 | -1,399 | +134,934 | 1,653,078 |
| 2025-10-14 | -75,067 | -42,302 | +144,466 | 1,689,162 |
| 2025-10-21 | -45,289 | +29,778 | +150,817 | 1,697,865 |
| 2025-10-28 | -41,787 | +3,502 | +139,194 | 1,639,227 |
| 2025-11-04 | -44,315 | -2,528 | +127,377 | 1,587,905 |
| 2025-11-10 | -52,984 | -8,669 | +124,806 | 1,548,544 |
| 2025-11-18 | -59,648 | -6,662 | +121,829 | 1,522,819 |
| 2025-11-25 | -65,361 | -5,713 | +125,612 | 1,504,302 |
| 2025-12-02 | -39,905 | +25,456 | +113,100 | 1,535,955 |
| 2025-12-09 | -30,862 | +9,043 | +85,247 | 1,564,010 |
| 2025-12-16 | -65,722 | -34,862 | +118,265 | 1,592,965 |
| 2025-12-23 | -105,906 | -40,183 | +148,682 | 1,575,569 |
| 2025-12-30 | -83,730 | +22,176 | +145,146 | 1,545,577 |
| 2026-01-06 | -100,174 | -16,444 | +155,886 | 1,610,205 |
| 2026-01-13 | -104,049 | -3,875 | +174,709 | 1,652,342 |
| 2026-01-20 | -77,014 | +27,035 | +182,171 | 1,636,626 |
| 2026-01-27 | -21,970 | +55,044 | +152,283 | 1,646,811 |
| 2026-02-03 | +106 | +22,076 | +163,609 | 1,676,452 |
| 2026-02-10 | -8,128 | -8,234 | +160,031 | 1,643,074 |
| 2026-02-17 | -26,840 | -18,712 | +176,146 | 1,633,915 |
| 2026-02-24 | -75,706 | -48,866 | +184,091 | 1,630,910 |
| 2026-03-03 | -75,910 | -203 | +184,809 | 1,621,447 |
| 2026-03-10 | -62,574 | +13,335 | +164,651 | 1,584,208 |
| 2026-03-17 | -44,600 | +17,975 | +158,122 | 1,577,306 |
| 2026-03-24 | -54,529 | -9,930 | +154,535 | 1,520,594 |
| 2026-03-31 | -68,022 | -13,492 | +149,081 | 1,525,975 |
| 2026-04-07 | -86,410 | -18,388 | +162,875 | 1,570,957 |
| 2026-04-14 | -114,268 | -27,857 | +173,318 | 1,599,878 |
| 2026-04-21 | -100,497 | +13,770 | +152,458 | 1,591,158 |
| 2026-04-28 | -97,345 | +3,152 | +151,781 | 1,588,956 |
| 2026-05-05 | -107,457 | -10,111 | +153,553 | 1,640,055 |
| 2026-05-12 | -119,870 | -12,414 | +159,391 | 1,641,104 |
| 2026-05-19 | -96,289 | +23,582 | +171,893 | 1,614,121 |
| 2026-05-26 | -134,104 | -37,816 | +190,715 | 1,647,784 |
| 2026-06-02 | -114,730 | +19,373 | +174,000 | 1,673,295 |
| 2026-06-09 | -122,613 | -7,882 | +175,868 | 1,647,699 |
| 2026-06-16 | -84,672 | +37,941 | +161,890 | 1,656,030 |
| 2026-06-23 | -82,812 | +1,860 | +162,053 | 1,623,076 |
| 2026-06-30 | -65,054 | +17,759 | +153,811 | 1,643,920 |
| 2026-07-07 | -60,377 | +4,677 | +149,496 | 1,678,099 |
| Date | MM Net (contracts) | MM Week-over-Week | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | +96,106 | -52,000 | 2,698,109 |
| 2025-07-22 | +86,088 | -10,017 | 2,529,772 |
| 2025-07-29 | +87,840 | +1,752 | 2,592,528 |
| 2025-08-05 | +78,826 | -9,014 | 2,598,545 |
| 2025-08-12 | +49,264 | -29,563 | 2,570,247 |
| 2025-08-19 | +29,686 | -19,578 | 2,399,868 |
| 2025-08-26 | +24,225 | -5,461 | 2,385,071 |
| 2025-09-02 | +27,287 | +3,062 | 2,462,489 |
| 2025-09-09 | +12,657 | -14,630 | 2,439,460 |
| 2025-09-16 | +38,904 | +26,247 | 2,452,877 |
| 2025-09-23 | +29,410 | -9,494 | 2,358,166 |
| 2025-09-30 | +18,386 | -11,024 | 2,469,965 |
| 2025-10-07 | -15,671 | -34,057 | 2,492,297 |
| 2025-10-14 | -25,085 | -9,414 | 2,595,395 |
| 2025-10-21 | -29,995 | -4,911 | 2,468,711 |
| 2025-10-28 | +4,590 | +34,584 | 2,375,562 |
| 2025-11-04 | +22,651 | +18,061 | 2,409,632 |
| 2025-11-10 | +3,178 | -19,473 | 2,390,711 |
| 2025-11-18 | -3,321 | -6,499 | 2,242,146 |
| 2025-11-25 | -28,555 | -25,234 | 2,314,741 |
| 2025-12-02 | -29,425 | -870 | 2,335,339 |
| 2025-12-09 | +10,745 | +40,169 | 2,308,356 |
| 2025-12-16 | +11,091 | +347 | 2,322,931 |
| 2025-12-23 | +17,666 | +6,575 | 2,267,166 |
| 2025-12-30 | +19,711 | +2,045 | 2,295,914 |
| 2026-01-06 | +22,580 | +2,871 | 2,382,115 |
| 2026-01-13 | +42,507 | +19,926 | 2,533,712 |
| 2026-01-20 | +53,434 | +10,927 | 2,438,338 |
| 2026-01-27 | +62,991 | +9,557 | 2,585,126 |
| 2026-02-03 | +80,377 | +17,387 | 2,688,721 |
| 2026-02-10 | +86,314 | +5,936 | 2,680,183 |
| 2026-02-17 | +81,219 | -5,095 | 2,577,058 |
| 2026-02-24 | +98,187 | +16,967 | 2,724,561 |
| 2026-03-03 | +108,421 | +10,235 | 2,889,103 |
| 2026-03-10 | +136,419 | +27,998 | 3,138,821 |
| 2026-03-17 | +147,861 | +11,442 | 3,011,766 |
| 2026-03-24 | +148,985 | +1,125 | 2,952,171 |
| 2026-03-31 | +130,717 | -18,270 | 3,039,583 |
| 2026-04-07 | +137,838 | +7,121 | 3,128,586 |
| 2026-04-14 | +144,243 | +6,406 | 3,085,567 |
| 2026-04-21 | +143,401 | -843 | 2,804,594 |
| 2026-04-28 | +135,501 | -7,900 | 2,893,767 |
| 2026-05-05 | +131,956 | -3,545 | 3,009,504 |
| 2026-05-12 | +129,583 | -2,373 | 3,032,488 |
| 2026-05-19 | +138,774 | +9,192 | 2,778,530 |
| 2026-05-26 | +115,762 | -23,012 | 2,742,161 |
| 2026-06-02 | +124,259 | +8,496 | 2,761,111 |
| 2026-06-09 | +123,207 | -1,052 | 2,754,041 |
| 2026-06-16 | +117,885 | -5,323 | 2,612,673 |
| 2026-06-23 | +100,295 | -17,590 | 2,533,875 |
| 2026-06-30 | +93,713 | -6,582 | 2,568,532 |
| 2026-07-07 | +74,679 | -19,035 | 2,560,340 |
| Date | MM Net (contracts) | MM Week-over-Week | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-15 | +40,604 | +7,555 | 370,715 |
| 2025-07-22 | +38,945 | -1,658 | 384,477 |
| 2025-07-29 | +41,206 | +2,261 | 375,269 |
| 2025-08-05 | +26,899 | -14,307 | 369,481 |
| 2025-08-12 | +27,770 | +871 | 380,173 |
| 2025-08-19 | +32,412 | +4,643 | 382,074 |
| 2025-08-26 | +33,105 | +693 | 378,648 |
| 2025-09-02 | +39,045 | +5,940 | 377,552 |
| 2025-09-09 | +25,805 | -13,241 | 396,687 |
| 2025-09-16 | +24,055 | -1,750 | 410,850 |
| 2025-09-23 | +21,511 | -2,543 | 425,591 |
| 2025-09-30 | +32,465 | +10,953 | 416,527 |
| 2025-10-07 | +18,297 | -14,168 | 410,343 |
| 2025-10-14 | +11,856 | -6,441 | 420,147 |
| 2025-10-21 | +11,564 | -293 | 408,678 |
| 2025-10-28 | +25,793 | +14,230 | 385,034 |
| 2025-11-04 | +32,089 | +6,296 | 376,492 |
| 2025-11-10 | +37,458 | +5,370 | 382,206 |
| 2025-11-18 | +37,615 | +156 | 402,936 |
| 2025-11-25 | +21,786 | -15,829 | 356,805 |
| 2025-12-02 | +21,015 | -771 | 361,751 |
| 2025-12-09 | +19,785 | -1,230 | 370,784 |
| 2025-12-16 | +12,526 | -7,259 | 364,343 |
| 2025-12-23 | +3,180 | -9,346 | 360,436 |
| 2025-12-30 | +3,627 | +447 | 353,481 |
| 2026-01-06 | +577 | -3,050 | 363,276 |
| 2026-01-13 | -5,942 | -6,519 | 381,401 |
| 2026-01-20 | -1,110 | +4,832 | 412,974 |
| 2026-01-27 | +10,612 | +11,722 | 400,218 |
| 2026-02-03 | +24,325 | +13,714 | 384,174 |
| 2026-02-10 | +20,315 | -4,009 | 378,033 |
| 2026-02-17 | +12,592 | -7,724 | 394,972 |
| 2026-02-24 | +22,524 | +9,933 | 378,635 |
| 2026-03-03 | +22,702 | +178 | 325,938 |
| 2026-03-10 | +19,776 | -2,927 | 304,224 |
| 2026-03-17 | +23,406 | +3,630 | 285,275 |
| 2026-03-24 | +18,625 | -4,781 | 275,128 |
| 2026-03-31 | +19,707 | +1,082 | 250,551 |
| 2026-04-07 | +18,062 | -1,645 | 245,616 |
| 2026-04-14 | +16,745 | -1,317 | 259,082 |
| 2026-04-21 | +14,014 | -2,731 | 263,440 |
| 2026-04-28 | +12,577 | -1,437 | 254,558 |
| 2026-05-05 | +11,768 | -809 | 257,574 |
| 2026-05-12 | +9,606 | -2,162 | 275,753 |
| 2026-05-19 | +10,793 | +1,188 | 270,531 |
| 2026-05-26 | +7,730 | -3,064 | 254,519 |
| 2026-06-02 | +12,160 | +4,430 | 256,065 |
| 2026-06-09 | +9,605 | -2,555 | 261,554 |
| 2026-06-16 | +9,447 | -158 | 279,085 |
| 2026-06-23 | +6,254 | -3,192 | 276,889 |
| 2026-06-30 | +8,494 | +2,240 | 267,942 |
| 2026-07-07 | +4,803 | -3,691 | 281,215 |
4-week rolling average in thousand barrels/day. Product supplied is EIA's proxy for domestic consumption. Gasoline reflects passenger transport demand; distillate captures trucking, industrial, and heating demand. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday release).
3-2-1 crack spread: (2 × RBOB + ULSD − 3 × WTI) ÷ 3 in $/barrel. Measures refinery margin and the incentive to process crude. Wide spreads indicate strong product demand relative to crude; compressed or negative spreads signal demand weakness or crude premium. Derived from front-month futures. Raw component prices not shown.