Energy Market Intelligence — October 09, 2026

Weather: 2026-10-09 Storage: 2026-10-02 COT: 2026-10-06

Storage

3,500 Bcf

Working gas L48 · 2026-10-02 · +22 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg

Henry Hub

$3.155/MMBtu

Spot price · week of 2026-10-02

NG MM Net

-144,681 cts

Managed money net · 2026-10-06

NG MM Gross Long

218,792 cts

Managed money gross long contracts

NG MM Gross Short

363,473 cts

Managed money gross short contracts

ENSO Phase

Developing El Niño

RONI +1.69°C · JAS 2026

ENSO context: El Niño winters run warmer than normal across the northern and central US — a bearish bias for natural gas heating demand. Expect below-normal HDD accumulation in the Midwest and Northeast.

Blue bars = colder than normal (bullish gas demand). Red bars = warmer than normal (bearish gas demand). HDD = heating demand; CDD = cooling demand; base 65°F.

HDD and CDD deviation from 30-year normal by energy region

Region	HDD deviation (°F·day)	CDD deviation (°F·day)
New England	-0.8	-0.2
New York	-1.1	-0.6
Mid-Atlantic	-1.0	-0.9
Midwest	-3.2	+2.2
Southeast	-0.8	+1.9
Texas	-0.8	+5.3
Southwest	-5.5	+8.5
Pacific NW	-3.7	-0.0
California	-0.2	+6.2

New England

CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate

HDD today 7.4 -0.8 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -6

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +22

↓ Warmer than normal

New York

New York state — Transco Zone 6

HDD today 4.6 -1.1 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.6 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -14

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +12

↓ Warmer than normal

Mid-Atlantic

DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate

HDD today 4.3 -1.0 vs. normal

CDD today 0.3 -0.9 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -24

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +15

↓ Warmer than normal

Midwest

MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent

HDD today 3.0 -3.2 vs. normal

CDD today 4.3 +2.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -36

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +2

↓ Warmer than normal

Southeast

AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability

HDD today 0.0 -0.8 vs. normal

CDD today 10.4 +1.9 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -6

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +4

↓ Warmer than normal

Texas

Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub

HDD today 0.0 -0.8 vs. normal

CDD today 12.2 +5.3 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -5

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +2

↓ Warmer than normal

Southwest

AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)

HDD today 0.0 -5.5 vs. normal

CDD today 14.2 +8.5 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -34

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -38

↓ Warmer than normal

Pacific NW

WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest

HDD today 7.1 -3.7 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.0 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -3

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -36

→ Near normal

California

California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory

HDD today 0.8 -0.2 vs. normal

CDD today 9.8 +6.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -3

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -11

↓ Warmer than normal

Regional temperature and HDD/CDD deviation summary by energy region

Region	Area	HDD Today	HDD Dev	CDD Today	CDD Dev	7-Day HDD Dev	8-14 Day HDD Dev	Signal
New England	CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate	7.4	-0.8	0.0	-0.2	-6	+22	↓ Warmer than normal
New York	New York state — Transco Zone 6	4.6	-1.1	0.0	-0.6	-14	+12	↓ Warmer than normal
Mid-Atlantic	DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate	4.3	-1.0	0.3	-0.9	-24	+15	↓ Warmer than normal
Midwest	MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent	3.0	-3.2	4.3	+2.2	-36	+2	↓ Warmer than normal
Southeast	AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability	0.0	-0.8	10.4	+1.9	-6	+4	↓ Warmer than normal
Texas	Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub	0.0	-0.8	12.2	+5.3	-5	+2	↓ Warmer than normal
Southwest	AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)	0.0	-5.5	14.2	+8.5	-34	-38	↓ Warmer than normal
Pacific NW	WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest	7.1	-3.7	0.0	-0.0	-3	-36	→ Near normal
California	California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory	0.8	-0.2	9.8	+6.2	-3	-11	↓ Warmer than normal

Blue = colder than normal (↑ heating demand, bullish for gas). Red = warmer than normal (↓ heating demand, bearish for gas). State shading reflects the dominant energy region assignment.

US temperature anomaly by energy region for choropleth map

Region	Temperature Anomaly Signal (°F·day)	Direction
New England	+0.59	Warmer than normal
New York	+0.47	Warmer than normal
Mid-Atlantic	+0.14	Warmer than normal
Midwest	+5.34	Warmer than normal
Southeast	+2.73	Warmer than normal
Texas	+6.07	Warmer than normal
Southwest	+14.05	Warmer than normal
Pacific NW	+3.68	Warmer than normal
California	+6.37	Warmer than normal

HDD deviation = forecast minus 30-yr normal. Positive = colder than normal. Gold diamonds show last week's forecast for the same 8–14 day window — the gap is the forecast revision direction.

7-day and 8-14 day HDD forecast deviation by energy region

Region	Days 1–7 HDD vs. Normal	Days 8–14 HDD vs. Normal	8–14 Day Prior Forecast	Revision
New England	-5.7	+22.4	-68.4	+90.8
New York	-13.8	+12.4	-67.3	+79.7
Mid-Atlantic	-23.6	+15.4	-61.5	+76.9
Midwest	-36.5	+2.4	-51.5	+53.9
Southeast	-6.3	+3.5	-13.1	+16.6
Texas	-4.6	+1.8	-6.3	+8.1
Southwest	-34.1	-38.1	-35.2	-2.9
Pacific NW	-2.7	-36.4	-73.5	+37.1
California	-3.3	-11.1	-12.7	+1.6

📍 Regional Deep Dive — 16-Day Forecast

Select Region

Southwest is running 5.5 HDD·day warmer than normal today. Outlook: the 7-day outlook extends -34 HDD vs. normal; the 8–14 day window shows -38 HDD vs. normal.

Solid lines = GFS model forecast (Open-Meteo). Dotted lines = 30-year climate normal (1991–2020 ERA5 baseline). Gold vertical line = today (separates actuals from forecast). Base temperature 65°F. Values are population-weighted within each energy region.

16-day HDD and CDD forecast vs 30-year normal, population-weighted by energy region. Select region buttons to view all nine US energy regions.

Date	Region	HDD	HDD Normal	HDD Deviation	CDD	CDD Normal	CDD Deviation	Is Forecast
2026-10-02	Southwest	1.0	3.2	-2.3	10.7	8.8	+1.9	Actual
2026-10-03	Southwest	0.3	3.4	-3.1	11.6	8.2	+3.4	Actual
2026-10-04	Southwest	0.3	4.2	-3.8	12.4	7.8	+4.6	Actual
2026-10-05	Southwest	0.1	4.8	-4.7	13.1	6.7	+6.4	Actual
2026-10-06	Southwest	0.0	5.2	-5.2	13.1	6.1	+7.0	Actual
2026-10-07	Southwest	0.0	5.2	-5.2	12.9	5.5	+7.4	Actual
2026-10-08	Southwest	0.0	5.2	-5.2	13.5	5.6	+7.9	Actual
2026-10-09	Southwest	0.0	5.5	-5.5	14.2	5.7	+8.5	Forecast
2026-10-10	Southwest	0.4	6.1	-5.7	11.5	5.7	+5.8	Forecast
2026-10-11	Southwest	1.2	5.9	-4.7	5.0	5.3	-0.3	Forecast
2026-10-12	Southwest	1.3	6.3	-4.9	7.2	5.3	+1.9	Forecast
2026-10-13	Southwest	1.3	6.3	-5.0	4.8	5.2	-0.4	Forecast
2026-10-14	Southwest	1.5	6.1	-4.6	2.5	5.3	-2.8	Forecast
2026-10-15	Southwest	2.6	6.4	-3.7	4.9	5.3	-0.4	Forecast
2026-10-16	Southwest	3.9	6.6	-2.7	7.9	5.3	+2.6	Forecast
2026-10-17	Southwest	3.7	6.7	-3.0	8.9	4.9	+4.0	Forecast
2026-10-18	Southwest	1.1	6.9	-5.8	8.1	4.3	+3.8	Forecast
2026-10-19	Southwest	0.6	6.8	-6.2	9.6	4.3	+5.3	Forecast
2026-10-20	Southwest	0.3	6.8	-6.4	10.7	4.1	+6.6	Forecast
2026-10-21	Southwest	0.2	7.4	-7.2	11.2	3.9	+7.3	Forecast
2026-10-22	Southwest	1.2	8.1	-6.9	11.0	3.4	+7.6	Forecast
2026-10-23	Southwest	1.5	8.2	-6.8	10.1	3.4	+6.7	Forecast
2026-10-24	Southwest	2.9	8.2	-5.3	7.8	3.4	+4.4	Forecast

Weekly EIA storage report. Red = current; gold = 5-year average; teal = prior year.

EIA natural gas working gas in storage, weekly, with 5-year average and surplus deficit

Date	Storage (Bcf)	Wk Change (Bcf)	5-Yr Avg (Bcf)	Prior Year (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (%)
2026-04-10	1,960	+60	1,888	1,846	+72	+3.8%
2026-04-17	2,063	+103	1,951	1,934	+112	+5.7%
2026-04-24	2,142	+79	2,023	2,041	+119	+5.9%
2026-05-01	2,205	+63	2,105	2,145	+100	+4.7%
2026-05-08	2,290	+85	2,193	2,255	+97	+4.4%
2026-05-15	2,391	+101	2,293	2,375	+98	+4.3%
2026-05-22	2,483	+92	2,388	2,476	+95	+4.0%
2026-05-29	2,578	+95	2,492	2,598	+86	+3.4%
2026-06-05	2,686	+108	2,567	2,707	+119	+4.6%
2026-06-12	2,759	+73	2,645	2,802	+114	+4.3%
2026-06-19	2,835	+76	2,723	2,898	+112	+4.1%
2026-06-26	2,922	+87	2,771	2,953	+151	+5.5%
2026-07-03	2,983	+61	2,827	3,006	+156	+5.5%
2026-07-10	3,024	+41	2,862	3,052	+162	+5.7%
2026-07-17	3,056	+32	2,885	3,075	+171	+5.9%
2026-07-24	3,084	+28	2,911	3,123	+173	+5.9%
2026-07-31	3,117	+33	2,941	3,130	+176	+6.0%
2026-08-07	3,153	+36	2,971	3,186	+182	+6.1%
2026-08-14	3,169	+16	3,002	3,199	+167	+5.6%
2026-08-21	3,184	+15	3,035	3,217	+149	+4.9%
2026-08-28	3,214	+30	3,075	3,262	+139	+4.5%
2026-09-04	3,254	+40	3,140	3,333	+114	+3.6%
2026-09-11	3,298	+44	3,219	3,423	+79	+2.5%
2026-09-18	3,351	+53	3,300	3,499	+51	+1.6%
2026-09-25	3,415	+64	3,388	3,551	+27	+0.8%
2026-10-02	3,500	+85	3,478	3,631	+22	+0.6%

Monthly averages in Bcfd. Power burn vs. 5-yr avg shows demand-side pressure; production and LNG provide supply context. EIA data; latest available ~2 months lag.

Henry Hub weekly average spot price. EIA daily series → weekly average. Regional basis data (Algonquin, Transco Z6, Chicago, SoCal, Opal) pending NGI data feed subscription.

CFTC COT Positioning

Managed money holds a net position of -144,681 contracts (7th percentile vs. full history since 2010). Week-over-week change: -11,832 contracts. Gross long: 218,792 (57th pct) · Gross short: 363,473 (97th pct).
Positioning at historically low/short levels.

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Gold line = Henry Hub weekly spot price (EIA).

Natural Gas CFTC managed money and commercial net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Commercial Net	Open Interest
2025-10-14	-75,067	-42,302	+144,466	1,689,162
2025-10-21	-45,289	+29,778	+150,817	1,697,865
2025-10-28	-41,787	+3,502	+139,194	1,639,227
2025-11-04	-44,315	-2,528	+127,377	1,587,905
2025-11-10	-52,984	-8,669	+124,806	1,548,544
2025-11-18	-59,648	-6,662	+121,829	1,522,819
2025-11-25	-65,361	-5,713	+125,612	1,504,302
2025-12-02	-39,905	+25,456	+113,100	1,535,955
2025-12-09	-30,862	+9,043	+85,247	1,564,010
2025-12-16	-65,722	-34,862	+118,265	1,592,965
2025-12-23	-105,906	-40,183	+148,682	1,575,569
2025-12-30	-83,730	+22,176	+145,146	1,545,577
2026-01-06	-100,174	-16,444	+155,886	1,610,205
2026-01-13	-104,049	-3,875	+174,709	1,652,342
2026-01-20	-77,014	+27,035	+182,171	1,636,626
2026-01-27	-21,970	+55,044	+152,283	1,646,811
2026-02-03	+106	+22,076	+163,609	1,676,452
2026-02-10	-8,128	-8,234	+160,031	1,643,074
2026-02-17	-26,840	-18,712	+176,146	1,633,915
2026-02-24	-75,706	-48,866	+184,091	1,630,910
2026-03-03	-75,910	-203	+184,809	1,621,447
2026-03-10	-62,574	+13,335	+164,651	1,584,208
2026-03-17	-44,600	+17,975	+158,122	1,577,306
2026-03-24	-54,529	-9,930	+154,535	1,520,594
2026-03-31	-68,022	-13,492	+149,081	1,525,975
2026-04-07	-86,410	-18,388	+162,875	1,570,957
2026-04-14	-114,268	-27,857	+173,318	1,599,878
2026-04-21	-100,497	+13,770	+152,458	1,591,158
2026-04-28	-97,345	+3,152	+151,781	1,588,956
2026-05-05	-107,457	-10,111	+153,553	1,640,055
2026-05-12	-119,870	-12,414	+159,391	1,641,104
2026-05-19	-96,289	+23,582	+171,893	1,614,121
2026-05-26	-134,104	-37,816	+190,715	1,647,784
2026-06-02	-114,730	+19,373	+174,000	1,673,295
2026-06-09	-122,613	-7,882	+175,868	1,647,699
2026-06-16	-84,672	+37,941	+161,890	1,656,030
2026-06-23	-82,812	+1,860	+162,053	1,623,076
2026-06-30	-65,054	+17,759	+153,811	1,643,920
2026-07-07	-60,377	+4,677	+149,496	1,678,099
2026-07-14	-105,501	-45,124	+168,857	1,676,383
2026-07-21	-102,694	+2,806	+163,147	1,695,624
2026-07-28	-105,605	-2,911	+181,603	1,683,026
2026-08-04	-126,545	-20,940	+189,635	1,719,031
2026-08-11	-110,382	+16,162	+182,524	1,706,695
2026-08-18	-99,900	+10,482	+190,280	1,743,477
2026-08-25	-71,496	+28,404	+189,923	1,762,883
2026-09-01	-89,523	-18,026	+193,264	1,819,853
2026-09-08	-96,677	-7,154	+200,898	1,837,184
2026-09-15	-100,024	-3,347	+206,412	1,835,136
2026-09-22	-65,632	+34,392	+202,087	1,853,483
2026-09-29	-132,849	-67,217	+213,826	1,796,124
2026-10-06	-144,681	-11,832	+219,756	1,830,932

Supporting Energy Markets — Crude Oil & Heating Oil

WTI Crude Oil MM net: +104,49111th pct WoW: -18,426 L: 198,618 (14th) · S: 94,127 (79th)

WTI Crude Oil CFTC managed money net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-10-14	-25,085	-9,414	2,595,395
2025-10-21	-29,995	-4,911	2,468,711
2025-10-28	+4,590	+34,584	2,375,562
2025-11-04	+22,651	+18,061	2,409,632
2025-11-10	+3,178	-19,473	2,390,711
2025-11-18	-3,321	-6,499	2,242,146
2025-11-25	-28,555	-25,234	2,314,741
2025-12-02	-29,425	-870	2,335,339
2025-12-09	+10,745	+40,169	2,308,356
2025-12-16	+11,091	+347	2,322,931
2025-12-23	+17,666	+6,575	2,267,166
2025-12-30	+19,711	+2,045	2,295,914
2026-01-06	+22,580	+2,871	2,382,115
2026-01-13	+42,507	+19,926	2,533,712
2026-01-20	+53,434	+10,927	2,438,338
2026-01-27	+62,991	+9,557	2,585,126
2026-02-03	+80,377	+17,387	2,688,721
2026-02-10	+86,314	+5,936	2,680,183
2026-02-17	+81,219	-5,095	2,577,058
2026-02-24	+98,187	+16,967	2,724,561
2026-03-03	+108,421	+10,235	2,889,103
2026-03-10	+136,419	+27,998	3,138,821
2026-03-17	+147,861	+11,442	3,011,766
2026-03-24	+148,985	+1,125	2,952,171
2026-03-31	+130,717	-18,270	3,039,583
2026-04-07	+137,838	+7,121	3,128,586
2026-04-14	+144,243	+6,406	3,085,567
2026-04-21	+143,401	-843	2,804,594
2026-04-28	+135,501	-7,900	2,893,767
2026-05-05	+131,956	-3,545	3,009,504
2026-05-12	+129,583	-2,373	3,032,488
2026-05-19	+138,774	+9,192	2,778,530
2026-05-26	+115,762	-23,012	2,742,161
2026-06-02	+124,259	+8,496	2,761,111
2026-06-09	+123,207	-1,052	2,754,041
2026-06-16	+117,885	-5,323	2,612,673
2026-06-23	+100,295	-17,590	2,533,875
2026-06-30	+93,713	-6,582	2,568,532
2026-07-07	+74,679	-19,035	2,560,340
2026-07-14	+86,383	+11,704	2,620,973
2026-07-21	+86,905	+522	2,522,204
2026-07-28	+108,307	+21,402	2,534,800
2026-08-04	+101,050	-7,257	2,596,877
2026-08-11	+103,715	+2,664	2,608,236
2026-08-18	+104,035	+321	2,448,684
2026-08-25	+104,573	+538	2,482,663
2026-09-01	+119,619	+15,046	2,556,627
2026-09-08	+139,339	+19,720	2,605,602
2026-09-15	+136,768	-2,571	2,725,013
2026-09-22	+142,588	+5,820	2,432,733
2026-09-29	+122,916	-19,672	2,494,485
2026-10-06	+104,491	-18,426	2,533,937

NY Harbor ULSD MM net: +10,95341th pct WoW: -1,738 L: 31,265 (32th) · S: 20,312 (46th)

NY Harbor ULSD CFTC managed money net positioning, trailing 52 weeks

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-10-14	+11,856	-6,441	420,147
2025-10-21	+11,564	-293	408,678
2025-10-28	+25,793	+14,230	385,034
2025-11-04	+32,089	+6,296	376,492
2025-11-10	+37,458	+5,370	382,206
2025-11-18	+37,615	+156	402,936
2025-11-25	+21,786	-15,829	356,805
2025-12-02	+21,015	-771	361,751
2025-12-09	+19,785	-1,230	370,784
2025-12-16	+12,526	-7,259	364,343
2025-12-23	+3,180	-9,346	360,436
2025-12-30	+3,627	+447	353,481
2026-01-06	+577	-3,050	363,276
2026-01-13	-5,942	-6,519	381,401
2026-01-20	-1,110	+4,832	412,974
2026-01-27	+10,612	+11,722	400,218
2026-02-03	+24,325	+13,714	384,174
2026-02-10	+20,315	-4,009	378,033
2026-02-17	+12,592	-7,724	394,972
2026-02-24	+22,524	+9,933	378,635
2026-03-03	+22,702	+178	325,938
2026-03-10	+19,776	-2,927	304,224
2026-03-17	+23,406	+3,630	285,275
2026-03-24	+18,625	-4,781	275,128
2026-03-31	+19,707	+1,082	250,551
2026-04-07	+18,062	-1,645	245,616
2026-04-14	+16,745	-1,317	259,082
2026-04-21	+14,014	-2,731	263,440
2026-04-28	+12,577	-1,437	254,558
2026-05-05	+11,768	-809	257,574
2026-05-12	+9,606	-2,162	275,753
2026-05-19	+10,793	+1,188	270,531
2026-05-26	+7,730	-3,064	254,519
2026-06-02	+12,160	+4,430	256,065
2026-06-09	+9,605	-2,555	261,554
2026-06-16	+9,447	-158	279,085
2026-06-23	+6,254	-3,192	276,889
2026-06-30	+8,494	+2,240	267,942
2026-07-07	+4,803	-3,691	281,215
2026-07-14	+10,919	+6,117	270,297
2026-07-21	+13,691	+2,771	268,189
2026-07-28	+11,374	-2,317	256,560
2026-08-04	+11,279	-95	260,598
2026-08-11	+14,038	+2,759	277,336
2026-08-18	+16,470	+2,432	284,745
2026-08-25	+17,342	+872	284,157
2026-09-01	+20,985	+3,644	271,685
2026-09-08	+16,004	-4,981	271,261
2026-09-15	+13,468	-2,536	284,912
2026-09-22	+9,732	-3,736	283,413
2026-09-29	+12,690	+2,958	245,777
2026-10-06	+10,953	-1,738	251,338

4-week rolling average in thousand barrels/day. Product supplied is EIA's proxy for domestic consumption. Gasoline reflects passenger transport demand; distillate captures trucking, industrial, and heating demand. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday release).

3-2-1 crack spread: (2 × RBOB + ULSD − 3 × WTI) ÷ 3 in $/barrel. Measures refinery margin and the incentive to process crude. Wide spreads indicate strong product demand relative to crude; compressed or negative spreads signal demand weakness or crude premium. Derived from front-month futures. Raw component prices not shown.