This weekNatural gas settled at $2.602/MMBtu, the 26th percentile over 15 yrs, -21% on the year. normal
| Date | $/MMBtu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 4.124 |
| 2025-11-07 | 4.315 |
| 2025-11-14 | 4.566 |
| 2025-11-21 | 4.580 |
| 2025-11-28 | 4.850 |
| 2025-12-05 | 5.289 |
| 2025-12-12 | 4.113 |
| 2025-12-19 | 3.984 |
| 2025-12-26 | 4.366 |
| 2026-01-02 | 3.618 |
| 2026-01-09 | 3.169 |
| 2026-01-16 | 3.103 |
| 2026-01-23 | 5.275 |
| 2026-01-30 | 4.354 |
| 2026-02-06 | 3.422 |
| 2026-02-13 | 3.243 |
| 2026-02-20 | 3.047 |
| 2026-02-27 | 2.859 |
| 2026-03-06 | 3.186 |
| 2026-03-13 | 3.131 |
| 2026-03-20 | 3.095 |
| 2026-03-27 | 3.095 |
| 2026-04-03 | 2.800 |
| 2026-04-10 | 2.648 |
| 2026-04-17 | 2.674 |
| 2026-04-24 | 2.523 |
| 2026-05-01 | 2.780 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2.757 |
| 2026-05-15 | 2.960 |
| 2026-05-22 | 2.907 |
| 2026-05-29 | 3.290 |
| 2026-06-05 | 3.229 |
| 2026-06-12 | 3.120 |
| 2026-06-19 | 3.233 |
| 2026-06-26 | 3.231 |
| 2026-07-03 | 3.196 |
| 2026-07-10 | 2.940 |
| 2026-07-17 | 2.911 |
| 2026-07-24 | 2.871 |
| 2026-07-31 | 2.747 |
| 2026-08-07 | 2.662 |
| 2026-08-14 | 2.733 |
| 2026-08-21 | 2.773 |
| 2026-08-28 | 2.888 |
| 2026-09-04 | 2.975 |
| 2026-09-11 | 2.831 |
| 2026-09-18 | 2.912 |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.196 |
| 2026-10-02 | 3.035 |
| 2026-10-09 | 3.220 |
| 2026-10-16 | 3.116 |
| 2026-10-23 | 2.640 |
| 2026-10-30 | 2.602 |
How to read it. NYMEX front month (data/prices/natgas_price.csv), Friday closes. The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly closes over 15 years. Below, the Henry Hub spot price.
Henry Hub weekly average spot price. EIA daily series → weekly average. Regional basis data (Algonquin, Transco Z6, Chicago, SoCal, Opal) pending NGI data feed subscription.
This weekFunds are net short 156,848 contracts, the 6th percentile over 15 yrs, from -102,694 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 98th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). unusual low
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | -45,289 |
| 2025-10-28 | -41,787 |
| 2025-11-04 | -44,315 |
| 2025-11-10 | -52,984 |
| 2025-11-18 | -59,648 |
| 2025-11-25 | -65,361 |
| 2025-12-02 | -39,905 |
| 2025-12-09 | -30,862 |
| 2025-12-16 | -65,722 |
| 2025-12-23 | -105,906 |
| 2025-12-30 | -83,730 |
| 2026-01-06 | -100,174 |
| 2026-01-13 | -104,049 |
| 2026-01-20 | -77,014 |
| 2026-01-27 | -21,970 |
| 2026-02-03 | 106 |
| 2026-02-10 | -8,128 |
| 2026-02-17 | -26,840 |
| 2026-02-24 | -75,706 |
| 2026-03-03 | -75,910 |
| 2026-03-10 | -62,574 |
| 2026-03-17 | -44,600 |
| 2026-03-24 | -54,529 |
| 2026-03-31 | -68,022 |
| 2026-04-07 | -86,410 |
| 2026-04-14 | -114,268 |
| 2026-04-21 | -100,497 |
| 2026-04-28 | -97,345 |
| 2026-05-05 | -107,457 |
| 2026-05-12 | -119,870 |
| 2026-05-19 | -96,289 |
| 2026-05-26 | -134,104 |
| 2026-06-02 | -114,730 |
| 2026-06-09 | -122,613 |
| 2026-06-16 | -84,672 |
| 2026-06-23 | -82,812 |
| 2026-06-30 | -65,054 |
| 2026-07-07 | -60,377 |
| 2026-07-14 | -105,501 |
| 2026-07-21 | -102,694 |
| 2026-07-28 | -105,605 |
| 2026-08-04 | -126,545 |
| 2026-08-11 | -110,382 |
| 2026-08-18 | -99,900 |
| 2026-08-25 | -71,496 |
| 2026-09-01 | -89,523 |
| 2026-09-08 | -96,677 |
| 2026-09-15 | -100,024 |
| 2026-09-22 | -65,632 |
| 2026-09-29 | -132,849 |
| 2026-10-06 | -144,681 |
| 2026-10-13 | -126,156 |
| 2026-10-20 | -156,848 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
Weekly EIA storage report. Red = current; gold = 5-year average; teal = prior year.
| Date | Storage (Bcf) | Wk Change (Bcf) | 5-Yr Avg (Bcf) | Prior Year (Bcf) | Surplus/Deficit (Bcf) | Surplus/Deficit (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | 2,142 | +79 | 2,023 | 2,041 | +119 | +5.9% |
| 2026-05-01 | 2,205 | +63 | 2,105 | 2,145 | +100 | +4.7% |
| 2026-05-08 | 2,290 | +85 | 2,193 | 2,255 | +97 | +4.4% |
| 2026-05-15 | 2,391 | +101 | 2,293 | 2,375 | +98 | +4.3% |
| 2026-05-22 | 2,483 | +92 | 2,388 | 2,476 | +95 | +4.0% |
| 2026-05-29 | 2,578 | +95 | 2,492 | 2,598 | +86 | +3.4% |
| 2026-06-05 | 2,686 | +108 | 2,567 | 2,707 | +119 | +4.6% |
| 2026-06-12 | 2,759 | +73 | 2,645 | 2,802 | +114 | +4.3% |
| 2026-06-19 | 2,835 | +76 | 2,723 | 2,898 | +112 | +4.1% |
| 2026-06-26 | 2,922 | +87 | 2,771 | 2,953 | +151 | +5.5% |
| 2026-07-03 | 2,983 | +61 | 2,827 | 3,006 | +156 | +5.5% |
| 2026-07-10 | 3,024 | +41 | 2,862 | 3,052 | +162 | +5.7% |
| 2026-07-17 | 3,056 | +32 | 2,885 | 3,075 | +171 | +5.9% |
| 2026-07-24 | 3,084 | +28 | 2,911 | 3,123 | +173 | +5.9% |
| 2026-07-31 | 3,117 | +33 | 2,941 | 3,130 | +176 | +6.0% |
| 2026-08-07 | 3,153 | +36 | 2,971 | 3,186 | +182 | +6.1% |
| 2026-08-14 | 3,169 | +16 | 3,002 | 3,199 | +167 | +5.6% |
| 2026-08-21 | 3,184 | +15 | 3,035 | 3,217 | +149 | +4.9% |
| 2026-08-28 | 3,214 | +30 | 3,075 | 3,262 | +139 | +4.5% |
| 2026-09-04 | 3,254 | +40 | 3,140 | 3,333 | +114 | +3.6% |
| 2026-09-11 | 3,298 | +44 | 3,219 | 3,423 | +79 | +2.5% |
| 2026-09-18 | 3,351 | +53 | 3,300 | 3,499 | +51 | +1.6% |
| 2026-09-25 | 3,415 | +64 | 3,388 | 3,551 | +27 | +0.8% |
| 2026-10-02 | 3,500 | +85 | 3,478 | 3,631 | +22 | +0.6% |
| 2026-10-09 | 3,567 | +67 | 3,569 | 3,712 | -2 | -0.1% |
| 2026-10-16 | 3,644 | +77 | 3,645 | 3,798 | -1 | -0.0% |
Monthly averages in Bcfd. Power burn vs. 5-yr avg shows demand-side pressure; production and LNG provide supply context. EIA data; latest available ~2 months lag.
4-week rolling average in thousand barrels/day. Product supplied is EIA's proxy for domestic consumption. Gasoline reflects passenger transport demand; distillate captures trucking, industrial, and heating demand. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (Wednesday release).
3-2-1 crack spread: (2 × RBOB + ULSD − 3 × WTI) ÷ 3 in $/barrel. Measures refinery margin and the incentive to process crude. Wide spreads indicate strong product demand relative to crude; compressed or negative spreads signal demand weakness or crude premium. Derived from front-month futures. Raw component prices not shown.
Blue bars = colder than normal (bullish gas demand). Red bars = warmer than normal (bearish gas demand). HDD = heating demand; CDD = cooling demand; base 65°F.
| Region | HDD deviation (°F·day) | CDD deviation (°F·day) |
|---|---|---|
| New England | -2.2 | -0.0 |
| New York | -3.6 | -0.1 |
| Mid-Atlantic | -3.7 | -0.1 |
| Midwest | -5.9 | -0.5 |
| Southeast | +0.3 | -0.4 |
| Texas | -3.2 | +2.1 |
| Southwest | -3.5 | +0.0 |
| Pacific NW | -2.2 | +0.0 |
| California | -1.1 | -1.2 |
| Region | Area | HDD Today | HDD Dev | CDD Today | CDD Dev | 7-Day HDD Dev | 8-14 Day HDD Dev | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate | 13.2 | -2.2 | 0.0 | -0.0 | -24 | -10 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| New York | New York state — Transco Zone 6 | 9.0 | -3.6 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -37 | -20 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Mid-Atlantic | DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate | 8.2 | -3.7 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -47 | -28 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Midwest | MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent | 7.6 | -5.9 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -58 | -36 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Southeast | AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability | 2.9 | +0.3 | 5.5 | -0.4 | -18 | -19 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Texas | Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub | 0.1 | -3.2 | 5.7 | +2.1 | -25 | -21 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Southwest | AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming) | 7.1 | -3.5 | 2.4 | +0.0 | -42 | -40 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
| Pacific NW | WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest | 14.8 | -2.2 | 0.0 | +0.0 | +0 | -39 | → Near normal |
| California | California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory | 1.9 | -1.1 | 0.5 | -1.2 | -14 | -32 | ↓ Warmer than normal |
Blue = colder than normal (↑ heating demand, bullish for gas). Red = warmer than normal (↓ heating demand, bearish for gas). State shading reflects the dominant energy region assignment.
| Region | Temperature Anomaly Signal (°F·day) | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| New England | +2.21 | Warmer than normal |
| New York | +3.51 | Warmer than normal |
| Mid-Atlantic | +3.59 | Warmer than normal |
| Midwest | +5.31 | Warmer than normal |
| Southeast | -0.66 | Colder than normal |
| Texas | +5.31 | Warmer than normal |
| Southwest | +3.55 | Warmer than normal |
| Pacific NW | +2.21 | Warmer than normal |
| California | -0.09 | Colder than normal |
HDD deviation = forecast minus 30-yr normal. Positive = colder than normal. Gold diamonds show last week's forecast for the same 8–14 day window — the gap is the forecast revision direction.
| Region | Days 1–7 HDD vs. Normal | Days 8–14 HDD vs. Normal | 8–14 Day Prior Forecast | Revision |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | -24.5 | -9.9 | -95.1 | +85.2 |
| New York | -37.3 | -19.5 | -87.6 | +68.1 |
| Mid-Atlantic | -47.2 | -27.6 | -84.0 | +56.4 |
| Midwest | -58.2 | -36.0 | -95.3 | +59.3 |
| Southeast | -18.0 | -19.3 | -24.9 | +5.6 |
| Texas | -24.7 | -21.2 | -34.7 | +13.5 |
| Southwest | -42.1 | -39.6 | -81.3 | +41.7 |
| Pacific NW | +0.0 | -39.4 | -112.6 | +73.2 |
| California | -14.0 | -32.2 | -34.5 | +2.3 |
Solid lines = GFS model forecast (Open-Meteo). Dotted lines = 30-year climate normal (1991–2020 ERA5 baseline). Gold vertical line = today (separates actuals from forecast). Base temperature 65°F. Values are population-weighted within each energy region.
| Date | Region | HDD | HDD Normal | HDD Deviation | CDD | CDD Normal | CDD Deviation | Is Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | Midwest | 8.4 | 10.3 | -1.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | -0.6 | Actual |
| 2026-10-21 | Midwest | 5.8 | 10.1 | -4.2 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -0.9 | Actual |
| 2026-10-22 | Midwest | 5.1 | 10.3 | -5.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -0.9 | Actual |
| 2026-10-23 | Midwest | 3.5 | 10.5 | -7.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | -0.5 | Actual |
| 2026-10-24 | Midwest | 3.3 | 11.7 | -8.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | -0.1 | Actual |
| 2026-10-25 | Midwest | 6.0 | 12.1 | -6.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -0.8 | Actual |
| 2026-10-26 | Midwest | 7.3 | 12.1 | -4.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | -0.6 | Actual |
| 2026-10-27 | Midwest | 7.6 | 13.5 | -5.9 | 0.2 | 0.7 | -0.5 | Forecast |
| 2026-10-28 | Midwest | 4.4 | 13.8 | -9.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | -0.2 | Forecast |
| 2026-10-29 | Midwest | 2.9 | 13.6 | -10.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | +1.8 | Forecast |
| 2026-10-30 | Midwest | 5.5 | 13.2 | -7.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | +2.4 | Forecast |
| 2026-10-31 | Midwest | 6.5 | 14.3 | -7.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | +1.6 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-01 | Midwest | 6.6 | 15.0 | -8.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | +1.1 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-02 | Midwest | 7.4 | 15.8 | -8.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | +1.3 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-03 | Midwest | 8.9 | 16.8 | -7.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | +1.0 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-04 | Midwest | 11.0 | 16.2 | -5.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | +0.7 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-05 | Midwest | 11.0 | 16.0 | -5.1 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.5 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-06 | Midwest | 14.2 | 16.6 | -2.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-07 | Midwest | 16.3 | 17.9 | -1.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.3 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-08 | Midwest | 12.8 | 18.4 | -5.7 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.1 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-09 | Midwest | 9.3 | 17.5 | -8.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | +0.2 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-10 | Midwest | 7.6 | 17.9 | -10.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | +0.4 | Forecast |
| 2026-11-11 | Midwest | 8.5 | 19.5 | -10.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | +0.8 | Forecast |