Gold solid = ONI (traditional 3-month smoothed). Faint gold = Niño 3.4 monthly (ERSSTv5) — the unsmoothed source ONI is derived from, most current data point. Teal dotted = RONI (climate-adjusted 3-month smoothed). Faint teal = Rnino34 monthly — the unsmoothed source RONI is derived from. A negative gap (RONI < ONI) means the traditional index overstates warmth.
Monthly SST anomalies for four Niño monitoring regions. Niño 3.4 is the basis for ONI — watch it for the primary ENSO signal. Niño 4 (western Pacific) warming before 3.4 can signal an upcoming El Niño. Niño 1+2 (far eastern Pacific) reflects coastal impacts — Peru fisheries, South American precipitation. Source: NOAA ERSSTv5, 1991–2020 baseline.
Blue bars = positive SOI (La Niña signal: higher pressure over Darwin, lower over Tahiti). Red bars = negative SOI (El Niño signal). Persistent signals over multiple months carry more weight than individual months. Source: NOAA CPC standardized SOI.
OLR measures thermal radiation from the tropical Pacific (160°E–160°W). Negative anomaly (blue) = enhanced convection / more cloud cover = La Niña-like. Positive anomaly (red) = suppressed convection / clearer skies = El Niño-like. Source: NOAA CPC.
| Commodity / Region | El Niño Effect | La Niña Effect |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil Arabica Coffee |
Supply risk
Drier conditions in Minas Gerais & São Paulo during flowering/cherry set. Supply risk in severe events.
|
Supply supportive
Wetter, more favorable conditions. Generally supportive of production.
|
| Vietnam & Robusta |
Mixed
Warmer and drier in parts of the Central Highlands. Mixed impact — can stress robusta.
|
Supply supportive
Cooler, wetter. Generally favorable for robusta growth.
|
| Colombia Arabica |
Mixed
Elevated rainfall can cause fungal disease (la roya) and harvest delays.
|
Supply supportive
Wetter. Favorable for production overall; excess rain risk in some years.
|
| US Corn Belt |
Minimal impact
Warmer winters; spring/summer near normal. Minimal directional impact historically.
|
Mixed
Colder winters; drier summers in southern parts of belt. Slight supply risk.
|
| HRW Wheat (TX / OK / KS) |
Supply supportive
Wetter winters in southern plains. Generally favorable for winter wheat.
|
Supply risk
Elevated drought risk in TX/southern plains. Significant supply risk.
|
| Australian Wheat |
Supply risk
Drier conditions across eastern and southern Australia. Strong negative supply impact.
|
Supply supportive
Better rainfall in grain-growing regions. Supportive of supply.
|
| 🧵 Cotton (US & Global) |
Mixed
Wetter US southern plains → favorable. Drier in Australia.
|
Supply risk
Drier TX/southern plains → acreage at risk; elevated drought stress.
|
| US Natural Gas Demand |
Supply risk
Warmer winters across northern/central US → reduced heating demand.
|
Supply supportive
Colder winters across northern/central US → elevated heating demand.
|
| Indian Monsoon |
Supply risk
Weaker monsoon. Dry stress for Indian crops (cotton, sugarcane, pulses).
|
Supply supportive
Stronger monsoon. Generally favorable for Indian agricultural output.
|
| Phase | Strength | Start | End | Periods | Peak RONI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Niña | Weak | JAS 2025 | JFM 2026 | 7 | -0.97°C |
| La Niña | Moderate | JJA 2024 | MAM 2025 | 10 | -1.13°C |
| El Niño | Moderate | JJA 2023 | JFM 2024 | 8 | +1.49°C |
| La Niña | Strong | AMJ 2020 | JFM 2023 | 34 | -1.54°C |
| El Niño | Weak | SON 2018 | MAM 2019 | 7 | +0.77°C |
| La Niña | Moderate | ASO 2017 | MAM 2018 | 8 | -1.26°C |
| La Niña | Moderate | MJJ 2016 | JFM 2017 | 9 | -1.11°C |
| El Niño | Strong | MAM 2015 | MAM 2016 | 13 | +2.37°C |
| La Niña | Moderate | JAS 2011 | FMA 2012 | 8 | -1.05°C |
| La Niña | Strong | AMJ 2010 | MAM 2011 | 12 | -1.74°C |
| El Niño | Strong | ASO 2009 | FMA 2010 | 7 | +1.56°C |
| La Niña | Weak | OND 2008 | FMA 2009 | 5 | -0.90°C |
| La Niña | Strong | MJJ 2007 | MJJ 2008 | 13 | -1.60°C |
| El Niño | Weak | ASO 2006 | DJF 2007 | 5 | +0.94°C |
| La Niña | Weak | OND 2005 | FMA 2006 | 5 | -0.93°C |