Supply Risk
Neutral
Net score +0.0 · ≥ +2 tightening / ≤ −2 easing
+1.0
Concentration tightening
K exports near-monopolistic (HHI 0.70) — fragile supply base (understated — opaque Russia/Belarus add hidden concentration)
-1.0
Availability easing
swing-exporter shipments 52% above seasonal normal (z=1.2) — ample flow
0.0
Cost-push neutral
EU urea margin healthy ($381/t)
This is the supply-side lens: not how exposed any one importer is, but whether the swing
exporters that move world supply are flowing or withholding. It blends how concentrated
each nutrient's exports are (few hands = fragile), whether the tap is flowing right now
(shipments vs normal), and whether the marginal producer is being squeezed out on cost.
Weigh the components, not just the headline.
Top concentration
HHI 0.70
K · top Canada
Supply availability
+52%
shipments vs seasonal normal
EU marginal margin
$381
world cost-push (curtailment)
World urea
$770
Pink Sheet FOB $/t
Herfindahl-Hirschman index of each nutrient's world exports (1 = single-source monopoly; the dotted line at 0.45 marks near-monopoly). Computed over the latest year the major exporters reported. Potash is the most concentrated — and understated here, since Russia and Belarus are absent from the trade data (see note below). Source: UN Comtrade.
Potash is the most concentrated nutrient — K HHI
0.70, led by Canada — and this understates the true
figure, because Russia and Belarus stopped reporting export data after 2022. Their supply
is real but dark; the availability section below reads it through importer records instead. Nitrogen is far
more competitive (many gas-based exporters), so its risk lives in policy and cost, not concentration.
| Nutrient | Export HHI | Top exporters (2024) |
Exports (value) |
|---|
| Nitrogen (urea, 3102) | 0.16 | China 27%, Saudi Arabia 15%, Egypt 15% | $10,542M |
| Phosphatic (SSP, 3103) | 0.30 | China 42%, Israel 27%, Egypt 23% | $1,273M |
| Potash (MOP, 3104) | 0.70 | Canada 82%, Germany 16%, Netherlands 2% | $7,091M |
| DAP / NPK complexes (3105) | 0.30 | China 44%, Saudi Arabia 29%, Morocco 10% | $11,462M |
Combined value of fertilizer the tracked swing exporters shipped to Brazil and the US, by month — the current 'is the tap flowing' pulse, and the only view that captures Russia and Belarus (importers still report buying from them). Below the seasonal normal = supply throttled. Source: Comex Stat + US Census, pivoted by origin.
UN Comtrade lags a year or more, so the current read comes from what the tracked exporters actually
shipped into two big buyers we track monthly — Brazil and the US. Right now those shipments are
+52%
versus the seasonal normal. This mirror is also how we see Russia and Belarus — they no
longer report exports, but their customers still report buying from them.
China's monthly fertilizer exports. The collapses are export quotas biting — Beijing throttles urea and DAP/MAP to protect domestic supply, then reopens. This is the policy state made measurable, without parsing any announcement. Comtrade lags ~12-18 months, so this is the historical behaviour of the tap, not the current month. Source: UN Comtrade.
China is the swing exporter to watch: its quota episodes show up as the export collapses above (the policy
state, made measurable). When Beijing throttles urea or DAP/MAP to protect domestic supply, the world
balance tightens — and the importers in our other three reports feel it first.
Editorial overlay — the supply taps. The supply taps that move every importer. China is the swing N+P exporter: recurring urea and DAP/MAP export quotas (provisional windows from 2021; tight through 2023-25) — its export VOLUME collapsing is the quota biting, the report's clearest availability signal. The potash triangle is Canada (Nutrien/Mosaic, the price-stable giant) + Russia (Uralkali) + Belarus (Belaruskali, sanctioned since 2021 and transit-cut) — the latter two opaque post-2022. Morocco (OCP) holds a near-monopoly on phosphate rock and is the swing DAP/MAP exporter when China withholds. Russia is a top-3 exporter of all three nutrients but reports no Comtrade data post-2022, so its tap is read through partner imports + editorial.
The last tonnes of world nitrogen come from the high-cost European producer, built on TTF gas. With the EU
urea cash cost at $389/t against a world price of
$770/t, its margin is
$381/t. A healthy margin keeps marginal capacity
running; an underwater one curtails it and tightens world supply — the same European curtailment engine the
Brazil report watches from the buyer's side, here read as a supply-side squeeze.