| Market | Price | Positioning | Ex-China stocks-to-use | Conditions | Belt drought |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 447.50¢58th over 15 yrsnormal | +55,94352nd over 15 yrsnormal | 9.6%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | 56% G/Econtext | 16% D2+context |
| Soybeans | 1,234.00¢62nd over 15 yrsnormal | +185,40089th over 15 yrsnormal | 16.1%lowest crop year in 8 yrsunusual low | 57% G/Econtext | 20% D2+context |
| Chicago SRW Wheat | 603.25¢60th over 15 yrsnormal | -74,85923rd over 15 yrsnormal | 17.7%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | — | 11% D2+context |
| KC HRW Wheat | 643.50¢63rd over 15 yrsnormal | -1,86539th over 15 yrsnormal | 17.7%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | — | 27% D2+context |
This weekCorn settled at 447.50¢/bu, the 58th percentile over 15 yrs, +4% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 431.50 |
| 2025-11-07 | 427.25 |
| 2025-11-14 | 430.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 425.50 |
| 2025-11-28 | 435.50 |
| 2025-12-05 | 436.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | 431.50 |
| 2025-12-19 | 443.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | 450.00 |
| 2026-01-02 | 437.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 445.75 |
| 2026-01-16 | 424.75 |
| 2026-01-23 | 430.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 428.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 430.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 431.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | 427.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 438.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | 447.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | 452.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | 465.50 |
| 2026-03-27 | 462.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | 452.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | 441.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | 448.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | 455.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | 468.25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 456.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | 455.75 |
| 2026-05-22 | 463.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | 446.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 417.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 412.75 |
| 2026-06-19 | 417.50 |
| 2026-06-26 | 412.75 |
| 2026-07-03 | 425.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 438.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 444.75 |
| 2026-07-24 | 464.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | 440.75 |
| 2026-08-07 | 439.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 459.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | 483.75 |
| 2026-08-28 | 512.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | 512.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | 510.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | 527.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 528.25 |
| 2026-10-02 | 497.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | 479.75 |
| 2026-10-16 | 474.25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 456.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 447.50 |
This weekFunds are net long 55,943 contracts, the 52nd percentile over 15 yrs, from +168,399 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 95th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | -89,506 |
| 2025-11-04 | -71,516 |
| 2025-11-10 | -39,523 |
| 2025-11-18 | 38,127 |
| 2025-11-25 | -10,872 |
| 2025-12-02 | 23,270 |
| 2025-12-09 | 9,718 |
| 2025-12-16 | -52,672 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2,759 |
| 2025-12-30 | -23,584 |
| 2026-01-06 | -16,426 |
| 2026-01-13 | -81,774 |
| 2026-01-20 | -81,324 |
| 2026-01-27 | -72,050 |
| 2026-02-03 | -68,786 |
| 2026-02-10 | -48,210 |
| 2026-02-17 | -27,415 |
| 2026-02-24 | -13,867 |
| 2026-03-03 | 52,974 |
| 2026-03-10 | 193,271 |
| 2026-03-17 | 228,804 |
| 2026-03-24 | 284,548 |
| 2026-03-31 | 267,974 |
| 2026-04-07 | 218,632 |
| 2026-04-14 | 159,483 |
| 2026-04-21 | 184,406 |
| 2026-04-28 | 264,103 |
| 2026-05-05 | 343,925 |
| 2026-05-12 | 299,483 |
| 2026-05-19 | 293,354 |
| 2026-05-26 | 205,504 |
| 2026-06-02 | 115,082 |
| 2026-06-09 | -5,325 |
| 2026-06-16 | -46,427 |
| 2026-06-23 | -69,691 |
| 2026-06-30 | -46,209 |
| 2026-07-07 | 12,659 |
| 2026-07-14 | 43,391 |
| 2026-07-21 | 92,909 |
| 2026-07-28 | 168,399 |
| 2026-08-04 | 181,946 |
| 2026-08-11 | 166,770 |
| 2026-08-18 | 250,505 |
| 2026-08-25 | 376,513 |
| 2026-09-01 | 431,062 |
| 2026-09-08 | 425,171 |
| 2026-09-15 | 426,842 |
| 2026-09-22 | 414,437 |
| 2026-09-29 | 377,850 |
| 2026-10-06 | 317,359 |
| 2026-10-13 | 230,877 |
| 2026-10-20 | 146,257 |
| 2026-10-27 | 55,943 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
97% silked, near the 5-year pace — conditions 56% Good+Excellent, 0.7pt above a normal year at this week.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | 58.4 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 56.9 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 62.1 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 60.3 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 59.9 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 60.4 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 60.0 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 61.0 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 62.3 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 65.1 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 57.3 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 58.5 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 59.2 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 59.5 | 10.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 62.6 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 63.3 | 13.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 64.6 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 71.3 | 15.8 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 63.9 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 55.4 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 55.1 | 14.8 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 55.2 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 44.0 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 38.4 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 30.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 26.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 26.4 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 31.6 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 35.0 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.6 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 0.8 |
| 2026-06-02 | 55.0 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 0.9 |
| 2026-06-09 | 52.5 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 0.6 |
| 2026-06-16 | 47.0 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 0.7 |
| 2026-06-23 | 44.6 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 0.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 39.8 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-07 | 40.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 41.7 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-21 | 46.0 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-28 | 55.5 | 14.3 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-04 | 57.4 | 16.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | 56.6 | 18.7 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 52.8 | 19.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 53.3 | 22.2 | 4.9 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.5 | 22.1 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-08 | 59.9 | 21.3 | 5.5 | 0.1 |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.1 | 20.9 | 5.8 | 0.1 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.6 | 19.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-09-29 | 47.8 | 15.8 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-10-06 | 46.9 | 15.7 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-13 | 49.1 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.7 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-27 | 56.1 | 16.1 | 5.3 | 0.9 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 18.3 |
| Jan 08 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 17.6 |
| Jan 15 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Jan 22 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan 29 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Feb 05 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 12 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 19 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Feb 26 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| Mar 05 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| Mar 12 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar 19 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
| Mar 26 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 |
| Apr 02 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 6.5 |
| Apr 09 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| Apr 16 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 |
| Apr 23 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| Apr 30 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| May 07 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 2.2 |
| May 14 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 1.9 |
| May 21 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 |
| May 28 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Jun 04 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| Jun 11 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Jun 18 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 25 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Jul 02 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Jul 09 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 16 | 10.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Jul 23 | 14.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Jul 30 | 16.0 | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Aug 06 | 18.7 | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| Aug 13 | 19.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 |
| Aug 20 | 22.2 | 0.3 | 4.0 |
| Aug 27 | 22.1 | 0.2 | 4.5 |
| Sep 03 | 21.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Sep 10 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| Sep 17 | 19.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 |
| Sep 24 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| Oct 01 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| Oct 08 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 16.3 |
| Oct 15 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 23.9 |
| Oct 22 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 29.7 |
This weekSoybeans settled at 1,234.00¢/bu, the 62nd percentile over 15 yrs, +13% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 1,099.75 |
| 2025-11-07 | 1,101.75 |
| 2025-11-14 | 1,112.75 |
| 2025-11-21 | 1,125.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 1,137.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1,105.25 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,076.75 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1,049.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1,058.75 |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,029.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,048.50 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,057.75 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,067.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,064.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 1,115.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1,133.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1,137.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,157.25 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,185.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,211.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,161.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,159.25 |
| 2026-04-03 | 1,163.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,175.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,167.25 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,163.75 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,187.75 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,194.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | 1,177.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | 1,196.50 |
| 2026-05-29 | 1,186.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 1,121.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 1,113.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 1,122.75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 1,126.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | 1,131.75 |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,196.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 1,204.50 |
| 2026-07-24 | 1,248.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 1,172.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 1,156.50 |
| 2026-08-14 | 1,173.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | 1,225.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | 1,276.25 |
| 2026-09-04 | 1,293.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | 1,280.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | 1,303.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 1,319.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 1,278.25 |
| 2026-10-09 | 1,292.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 1,261.25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 1,256.50 |
| 2026-10-30 | 1,234.00 |
This weekFunds are net long 185,400 contracts, the 89th percentile over 15 yrs, from +155,001 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 84th percentile over 15 yrs (normal). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 118,489 |
| 2025-11-04 | 178,683 |
| 2025-11-10 | 194,443 |
| 2025-11-18 | 229,625 |
| 2025-11-25 | 214,289 |
| 2025-12-02 | 215,426 |
| 2025-12-09 | 180,338 |
| 2025-12-16 | 147,778 |
| 2025-12-23 | 110,403 |
| 2025-12-30 | 84,562 |
| 2026-01-06 | 57,717 |
| 2026-01-13 | 12,961 |
| 2026-01-20 | 10,060 |
| 2026-01-27 | 17,321 |
| 2026-02-03 | 28,832 |
| 2026-02-10 | 123,148 |
| 2026-02-17 | 163,611 |
| 2026-02-24 | 184,202 |
| 2026-03-03 | 198,902 |
| 2026-03-10 | 222,107 |
| 2026-03-17 | 201,997 |
| 2026-03-24 | 197,904 |
| 2026-03-31 | 213,407 |
| 2026-04-07 | 189,630 |
| 2026-04-14 | 175,151 |
| 2026-04-21 | 192,884 |
| 2026-04-28 | 185,282 |
| 2026-05-05 | 221,617 |
| 2026-05-12 | 214,815 |
| 2026-05-19 | 207,804 |
| 2026-05-26 | 189,552 |
| 2026-06-02 | 156,050 |
| 2026-06-09 | 90,756 |
| 2026-06-16 | 52,818 |
| 2026-06-23 | 36,679 |
| 2026-06-30 | 31,200 |
| 2026-07-07 | 68,679 |
| 2026-07-14 | 72,688 |
| 2026-07-21 | 124,900 |
| 2026-07-28 | 155,001 |
| 2026-08-04 | 125,466 |
| 2026-08-11 | 101,362 |
| 2026-08-18 | 151,662 |
| 2026-08-25 | 198,254 |
| 2026-09-01 | 241,183 |
| 2026-09-08 | 266,031 |
| 2026-09-15 | 244,710 |
| 2026-09-22 | 265,041 |
| 2026-09-29 | 241,164 |
| 2026-10-06 | 251,660 |
| 2026-10-13 | 237,491 |
| 2026-10-20 | 206,936 |
| 2026-10-27 | 185,400 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
95% setting pods, ahead of the 5-year pace — conditions 57% Good+Excellent, 0.5pt in line with a normal year at this week.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Soybeans Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, ND, MO, KS, MI, AR). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | 54.1 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 52.2 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 55.5 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 54.1 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 53.9 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 54.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 54.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 55.2 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 56.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 58.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 51.2 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 52.1 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 52.6 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 53.3 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 57.0 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 57.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 58.8 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 65.2 | 14.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 61.3 | 16.7 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 57.1 | 17.4 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-24 | 58.2 | 18.8 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 59.0 | 21.7 | 9.5 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 51.2 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | 45.8 | 19.7 | 10.6 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | 39.7 | 21.1 | 11.9 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-28 | 35.8 | 20.7 | 10.8 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 36.1 | 21.0 | 11.6 | 1.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 40.6 | 21.3 | 12.4 | 2.3 |
| 2026-05-19 | 43.1 | 21.0 | 12.9 | 2.3 |
| 2026-05-26 | 46.3 | 21.1 | 11.8 | 2.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 52.3 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 1.3 |
| 2026-06-09 | 49.9 | 18.1 | 7.9 | 1.0 |
| 2026-06-16 | 46.5 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
| 2026-06-23 | 43.9 | 16.5 | 6.3 | 1.1 |
| 2026-06-30 | 39.3 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-07 | 39.9 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 40.2 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-21 | 43.5 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-28 | 51.3 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-04 | 55.1 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | 55.6 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 55.1 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 55.5 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-01 | 56.6 | 22.1 | 4.5 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-08 | 63.2 | 22.4 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-15 | 62.0 | 22.1 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-22 | 57.7 | 21.4 | 5.6 | 0.3 |
| 2026-09-29 | 54.7 | 19.4 | 5.9 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.2 | 18.9 | 7.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.7 | 20.1 | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.7 | 19.3 | 9.3 | 1.8 |
| 2026-10-27 | 59.6 | 20.0 | 9.7 | 3.4 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| Jan 08 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 16.1 |
| Jan 15 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| Jan 22 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 10.3 |
| Jan 29 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| Feb 05 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| Feb 12 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| Feb 19 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 8.5 |
| Feb 26 | 14.6 | 13.7 | 8.5 |
| Mar 05 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 9.0 |
| Mar 12 | 17.5 | 13.4 | 8.8 |
| Mar 19 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 8.7 |
| Mar 26 | 21.7 | 13.1 | 6.0 |
| Apr 02 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 5.8 |
| Apr 09 | 19.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 |
| Apr 16 | 21.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 |
| Apr 23 | 20.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| Apr 30 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| May 07 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 |
| May 14 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| May 21 | 21.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 |
| May 28 | 18.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| Jun 04 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Jun 11 | 18.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Jun 18 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Jun 25 | 11.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Jul 02 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Jul 09 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Jul 16 | 10.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Jul 23 | 14.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Jul 30 | 14.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Aug 06 | 17.1 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
| Aug 13 | 18.2 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| Aug 20 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Aug 27 | 22.1 | 0.3 | 5.2 |
| Sep 03 | 22.4 | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Sep 10 | 22.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| Sep 17 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 10.9 |
| Sep 24 | 19.4 | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| Oct 01 | 18.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| Oct 08 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 15.6 |
| Oct 15 | 19.3 | 8.3 | 23.1 |
| Oct 22 | 20.0 | 9.9 | 29.0 |
This weekChicago SRW Wheat settled at 603.25¢/bu, the 60th percentile over 15 yrs, +15% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 534.00 |
| 2025-11-07 | 527.75 |
| 2025-11-14 | 527.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 527.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 531.00 |
| 2025-12-05 | 537.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | 534.50 |
| 2025-12-19 | 509.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | 519.00 |
| 2026-01-02 | 506.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 517.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 518.00 |
| 2026-01-23 | 529.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 538.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | 529.75 |
| 2026-02-13 | 548.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | 573.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 591.25 |
| 2026-03-06 | 611.25 |
| 2026-03-13 | 618.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | 595.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 605.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | 598.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | 571.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | 591.25 |
| 2026-04-24 | 608.25 |
| 2026-05-01 | 624.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 607.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | 635.75 |
| 2026-05-22 | 646.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | 610.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | 580.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | 584.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 605.75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 578.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | 590.50 |
| 2026-07-10 | 632.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 682.75 |
| 2026-07-24 | 678.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 639.25 |
| 2026-08-07 | 639.75 |
| 2026-08-14 | 674.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | 681.50 |
| 2026-08-28 | 767.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | 716.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | 707.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | 714.25 |
| 2026-09-25 | 703.25 |
| 2026-10-02 | 683.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | 671.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 660.50 |
| 2026-10-23 | 625.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 603.25 |
This weekFunds are net short 74,859 contracts, the 23rd percentile over 15 yrs, from -6,880 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 94th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | -75,133 |
| 2025-11-04 | -70,613 |
| 2025-11-10 | -58,761 |
| 2025-11-18 | -48,691 |
| 2025-11-25 | -53,746 |
| 2025-12-02 | -43,841 |
| 2025-12-09 | -46,069 |
| 2025-12-16 | -66,918 |
| 2025-12-23 | -91,665 |
| 2025-12-30 | -94,626 |
| 2026-01-06 | -107,165 |
| 2026-01-13 | -106,229 |
| 2026-01-20 | -110,700 |
| 2026-01-27 | -94,743 |
| 2026-02-03 | -81,755 |
| 2026-02-10 | -85,655 |
| 2026-02-17 | -68,037 |
| 2026-02-24 | -17,297 |
| 2026-03-03 | -25,800 |
| 2026-03-10 | -22,345 |
| 2026-03-17 | -12,702 |
| 2026-03-24 | -2,234 |
| 2026-03-31 | 8,641 |
| 2026-04-07 | -5,633 |
| 2026-04-14 | -7,266 |
| 2026-04-21 | -10,717 |
| 2026-04-28 | 10,664 |
| 2026-05-05 | -9,903 |
| 2026-05-12 | -19,023 |
| 2026-05-19 | -4,799 |
| 2026-05-26 | -18,706 |
| 2026-06-02 | -57,871 |
| 2026-06-09 | -79,407 |
| 2026-06-16 | -69,531 |
| 2026-06-23 | -71,206 |
| 2026-06-30 | -69,030 |
| 2026-07-07 | -62,325 |
| 2026-07-14 | -36,798 |
| 2026-07-21 | -19,349 |
| 2026-07-28 | -6,880 |
| 2026-08-04 | -23,786 |
| 2026-08-11 | -31,401 |
| 2026-08-18 | -26,485 |
| 2026-08-25 | -14,171 |
| 2026-09-01 | 14,654 |
| 2026-09-08 | 4,262 |
| 2026-09-15 | -4,706 |
| 2026-09-22 | -13,144 |
| 2026-09-29 | -21,670 |
| 2026-10-06 | -29,543 |
| 2026-10-13 | -33,038 |
| 2026-10-20 | -51,134 |
| 2026-10-27 | -74,859 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
This weekKC HRW Wheat settled at 643.50¢/bu, the 63rd percentile over 15 yrs, +25% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 524.50 |
| 2025-11-07 | 519.25 |
| 2025-11-14 | 515.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 511.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 517.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 523.25 |
| 2025-12-12 | 498.75 |
| 2025-12-19 | 515.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | 533.50 |
| 2026-01-02 | 515.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | 530.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 527.25 |
| 2026-01-23 | 540.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 544.75 |
| 2026-02-06 | 531.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 542.50 |
| 2026-02-20 | 572.25 |
| 2026-02-27 | 572.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | 611.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 618.75 |
| 2026-03-20 | 606.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 632.75 |
| 2026-04-03 | 615.75 |
| 2026-04-10 | 590.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 636.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | 659.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | 682.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 672.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | 688.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | 682.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | 649.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 620.75 |
| 2026-06-12 | 634.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 644.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 611.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | 627.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 662.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 732.25 |
| 2026-07-24 | 745.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | 707.50 |
| 2026-08-07 | 714.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 754.25 |
| 2026-08-21 | 756.25 |
| 2026-08-28 | 827.75 |
| 2026-09-04 | 786.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | 784.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | 783.75 |
| 2026-09-25 | 762.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 735.25 |
| 2026-10-09 | 719.25 |
| 2026-10-16 | 704.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | 664.50 |
| 2026-10-30 | 643.50 |
This weekFunds are net short 1,865 contracts, the 39th percentile over 15 yrs, from +33,233 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 99th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | -51,708 |
| 2025-11-04 | -42,454 |
| 2025-11-10 | -33,217 |
| 2025-11-18 | -19,939 |
| 2025-11-25 | -22,064 |
| 2025-12-02 | -17,911 |
| 2025-12-09 | -17,011 |
| 2025-12-16 | -25,713 |
| 2025-12-23 | -24,749 |
| 2025-12-30 | -18,319 |
| 2026-01-06 | -15,655 |
| 2026-01-13 | -12,781 |
| 2026-01-20 | -13,018 |
| 2026-01-27 | -10,329 |
| 2026-02-03 | -8,844 |
| 2026-02-10 | -19,496 |
| 2026-02-17 | -10,609 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4,204 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,866 |
| 2026-03-10 | 9,425 |
| 2026-03-17 | 10,726 |
| 2026-03-24 | 9,705 |
| 2026-03-31 | 21,517 |
| 2026-04-07 | 15,608 |
| 2026-04-14 | 16,924 |
| 2026-04-21 | 28,009 |
| 2026-04-28 | 30,624 |
| 2026-05-05 | 37,869 |
| 2026-05-12 | 37,790 |
| 2026-05-19 | 30,075 |
| 2026-05-26 | 26,870 |
| 2026-06-02 | 13,477 |
| 2026-06-09 | -4,543 |
| 2026-06-16 | 7,620 |
| 2026-06-23 | -1,285 |
| 2026-06-30 | 6,910 |
| 2026-07-07 | 11,764 |
| 2026-07-14 | 17,494 |
| 2026-07-21 | 29,944 |
| 2026-07-28 | 33,233 |
| 2026-08-04 | 33,094 |
| 2026-08-11 | 27,662 |
| 2026-08-18 | 34,835 |
| 2026-08-25 | 44,062 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50,284 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51,248 |
| 2026-09-15 | 45,758 |
| 2026-09-22 | 41,743 |
| 2026-09-29 | 30,710 |
| 2026-10-06 | 24,040 |
| 2026-10-13 | 17,391 |
| 2026-10-20 | 6,395 |
| 2026-10-27 | -1,865 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
Kansas plants 28% of US winter wheat but carries only 11% of the abandoned acres; TX and OK are 34% of the area and 71% of the losses. Cumulative acres across closed crop years since 1999, so one catastrophic year in a small state cannot distort the ranking. Much of the TX and OK gap is dual-purpose wheat grazed out by economic choice rather than lost to weather, so a belt-wide abandonment figure tracks a planting decision as much as crop stress — read it alongside the condition tiers above, not instead of them. Source: USDA NASS state planted and harvested acres.
| State | Planted share | Abandoned share | Median rate | Worst year | Worst rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 17.9% | 44.9% | 54.3% | 2022 | 75.5% |
| OK | 16.5% | 26.3% | 34.1% | 2014 | 47.2% |
| KS | 27.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 2023 | 29.0% |
| CO | 7.3% | 4.6% | 11.6% | 2002 | 29.8% |
| SD | 4.0% | 3.2% | 11.2% | 2001 | 71.5% |
| MT | 6.2% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 2002 | 46.2% |
| MO | 2.5% | 1.8% | 15.6% | 2022 | 34.9% |
| NE | 4.6% | 1.8% | 7.9% | 2013 | 22.4% |
| AR | 1.5% | 1.1% | 19.1% | 2019 | 54.5% |
| WA | 5.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 1999 | 12.1% |
| IL | 2.4% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 2019 | 15.4% |
| OH | 2.3% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 2019 | 23.0% |
| IN | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.3% | 2025 | 25.0% |
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly fall planting progress. Pace relative to prior years signals early or delayed establishment entering winter.
USDA NASS weekly crop heading progress. Pace of heading relative to prior years reflects crop development speed and informs harvest timing expectations.
Average drought coverage across SRW Belt states (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO, KY). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | 59.6 | 16.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 55.2 | 15.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 56.5 | 16.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 51.8 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 52.7 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 53.5 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 57.8 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 58.9 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 62.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 67.0 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 61.8 | 12.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 63.0 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 59.7 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 59.4 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 59.9 | 17.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 57.1 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 57.2 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 65.1 | 18.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 53.2 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 43.6 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 44.5 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 52.1 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 39.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 38.2 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 23.6 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 23.0 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-12 | 25.6 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 29.5 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 0.1 |
| 2026-05-26 | 27.8 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 32.8 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-09 | 30.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-16 | 20.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-07 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-14 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-21 | 10.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-28 | 16.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 19.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 18.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 17.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 20.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 36.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 32.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 31.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 37.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 38.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.7 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-10-20 | 47.6 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-27 | 55.0 | 11.1 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 14.6 |
| Jan 08 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Jan 15 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Jan 22 | 13.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Jan 29 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 05 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 12 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 19 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Feb 26 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| Mar 05 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Mar 12 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Mar 19 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Mar 26 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Apr 02 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Apr 09 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Apr 16 | 8.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Apr 23 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Apr 30 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| May 07 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| May 14 | 14.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| May 21 | 11.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| May 28 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Jun 04 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 11 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 18 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 25 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 02 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Jul 09 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 16 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Jul 23 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Jul 30 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 |
| Aug 06 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 |
| Aug 13 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 |
| Aug 20 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 4.0 |
| Aug 27 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 4.2 |
| Sep 03 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Sep 10 | 4.2 | 16.1 | 11.7 |
| Sep 17 | 4.3 | 17.7 | 18.7 |
| Sep 24 | 4.6 | 16.0 | 18.3 |
| Oct 01 | 6.0 | 19.6 | 8.9 |
| Oct 08 | 8.2 | 21.9 | 10.3 |
| Oct 15 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 14.8 |
| Oct 22 | 11.1 | 17.9 | 17.9 |
Average drought coverage across HRW Belt states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE, SD). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-04 | 50.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 52.5 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 56.5 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.3 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.6 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-09 | 55.4 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 54.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 60.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-30 | 64.6 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 2026-01-06 | 68.5 | 12.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | 63.1 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-20 | 64.3 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-27 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 69.4 | 16.9 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-10 | 73.8 | 19.3 | 6.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-17 | 74.4 | 20.6 | 6.7 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 76.6 | 23.4 | 7.5 | 0.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 80.5 | 29.9 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | 80.3 | 30.1 | 9.1 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | 83.5 | 36.7 | 10.5 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | 87.3 | 47.5 | 15.6 | 1.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 92.1 | 56.2 | 27.1 | 4.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 92.4 | 54.8 | 24.2 | 4.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 88.7 | 58.7 | 26.1 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 87.7 | 57.7 | 28.9 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 86.7 | 57.2 | 29.8 | 3.5 |
| 2026-05-05 | 86.8 | 56.2 | 30.6 | 3.8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 88.3 | 55.4 | 30.4 | 4.8 |
| 2026-05-19 | 89.2 | 53.9 | 30.3 | 3.8 |
| 2026-05-26 | 89.2 | 53.1 | 29.1 | 4.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 85.7 | 47.9 | 25.8 | 4.7 |
| 2026-06-09 | 81.8 | 44.0 | 22.1 | 3.8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 79.2 | 43.7 | 22.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026-06-23 | 76.0 | 43.1 | 21.2 | 4.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 71.4 | 36.6 | 15.0 | 2.6 |
| 2026-07-07 | 71.0 | 35.7 | 15.4 | 2.6 |
| 2026-07-14 | 69.1 | 34.8 | 15.1 | 2.8 |
| 2026-07-21 | 69.9 | 35.4 | 15.9 | 2.9 |
| 2026-07-28 | 72.4 | 37.9 | 16.5 | 3.1 |
| 2026-08-04 | 79.4 | 37.2 | 16.4 | 3.2 |
| 2026-08-11 | 83.3 | 40.8 | 19.3 | 3.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 86.5 | 42.1 | 19.6 | 4.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 87.9 | 46.4 | 20.4 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 88.8 | 47.4 | 19.0 | 4.8 |
| 2026-09-08 | 92.5 | 49.2 | 21.8 | 5.2 |
| 2026-09-15 | 92.8 | 49.3 | 21.5 | 6.1 |
| 2026-09-22 | 88.8 | 48.8 | 19.8 | 6.6 |
| 2026-09-29 | 86.0 | 45.8 | 20.6 | 6.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | 80.1 | 38.4 | 15.9 | 4.4 |
| 2026-10-13 | 80.0 | 37.3 | 15.3 | 4.5 |
| 2026-10-20 | 78.2 | 32.0 | 10.6 | 2.4 |
| 2026-10-27 | 73.6 | 27.4 | 9.1 | 2.1 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 12.3 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
| Jan 08 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 9.2 |
| Jan 15 | 14.5 | 20.1 | 8.6 |
| Jan 22 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 6.5 |
| Jan 29 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 6.1 |
| Feb 05 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 5.3 |
| Feb 12 | 20.6 | 19.6 | 4.5 |
| Feb 19 | 23.4 | 20.3 | 4.5 |
| Feb 26 | 29.9 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 05 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 12 | 36.7 | 25.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar 19 | 47.5 | 29.2 | 4.0 |
| Mar 26 | 56.2 | 28.8 | 3.0 |
| Apr 02 | 54.8 | 23.2 | 2.9 |
| Apr 09 | 58.7 | 24.1 | 2.9 |
| Apr 16 | 57.7 | 22.5 | 4.4 |
| Apr 23 | 57.3 | 19.1 | 7.0 |
| Apr 30 | 56.2 | 19.4 | 9.1 |
| May 07 | 55.4 | 21.6 | 8.2 |
| May 14 | 53.9 | 19.9 | 8.8 |
| May 21 | 53.1 | 17.5 | 7.6 |
| May 28 | 47.9 | 15.0 | 7.9 |
| Jun 04 | 43.9 | 12.5 | 5.0 |
| Jun 11 | 43.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 |
| Jun 18 | 43.2 | 12.0 | 3.7 |
| Jun 25 | 36.6 | 10.4 | 3.1 |
| Jul 02 | 35.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 |
| Jul 09 | 34.8 | 9.4 | 3.9 |
| Jul 16 | 35.4 | 9.0 | 4.0 |
| Jul 23 | 37.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 |
| Jul 30 | 37.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 |
| Aug 06 | 40.8 | 9.2 | 7.0 |
| Aug 13 | 42.1 | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| Aug 20 | 46.4 | 9.3 | 8.5 |
| Aug 27 | 47.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| Sep 03 | 49.2 | 8.7 | 10.2 |
| Sep 10 | 49.3 | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| Sep 17 | 48.8 | 8.0 | 13.8 |
| Sep 24 | 45.8 | 8.2 | 13.5 |
| Oct 01 | 38.4 | 8.0 | 15.6 |
| Oct 08 | 37.3 | 5.3 | 23.6 |
| Oct 15 | 32.0 | 5.8 | 30.9 |
| Oct 22 | 27.4 | 5.4 | 36.1 |
Source: USDA WASDE · WASDE #676