Grain Outlook | US — May 15, 2026

Grain Outlook | US — May 15, 2026 Data through: COT: May 15, 2026 · USDA: May 15, 2026 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/grain_outlook_2ff26e3b.html MANAGED MONEY POSITIONING: Corn +299,483 cts 88th pct heavily long Soybeans +214,815 cts 96th pct heavily long

Corn Soybeans Winter Wheat

Supplement: USDA Prospective Plantings & Acreage →

Grain Outlook | US — Weekly

Crop conditions rated as % Good + Excellent (national) · Drought coverage by key belt states · COT managed money percentile vs. full history (2010–present)

Corn

USDA NASS · US Drought Monitor · CFTC Disaggregated COT · Full in-season report

Corn Belt Drought

13.0%

D2+ Severe drought coverage · 2026-05-12

Corn COT Positioning

Heavily Long

MM net percentile · 2026-05-12

88th pct

Crop Stress & Abandonment Risk

% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.

Crop Conditions & Progress

USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.

USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.

Belt Drought Monitor

Average drought coverage across Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.

Date	D2+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-05-20	7.5	0.0
2025-05-27	6.1	0.0
2025-06-03	4.3	0.0
2025-06-10	3.1	0.0
2025-06-17	2.6	0.0
2025-06-24	2.5	0.0
2025-07-01	1.8	0.0
2025-07-08	1.7	0.0
2025-07-15	1.1	0.0
2025-07-22	1.0	0.0
2025-07-29	0.8	0.0
2025-08-05	0.3	0.0
2025-08-12	0.3	0.0
2025-08-19	0.3	0.0
2025-08-26	0.2	0.0
2025-09-02	0.2	0.0
2025-09-09	2.5	0.0
2025-09-16	7.1	0.0
2025-09-23	7.9	0.0
2025-09-30	8.2	0.0
2025-10-07	10.9	0.0
2025-10-14	12.3	0.0
2025-10-21	8.5	0.0
2025-10-28	10.2	0.0
2025-11-04	9.7	0.0
2025-11-11	9.3	0.0
2025-11-18	11.0	0.0
2025-11-25	9.2	0.0
2025-12-02	7.6	0.0
2025-12-09	7.7	0.0
2025-12-16	7.6	0.0
2025-12-23	7.7	0.0
2025-12-30	6.5	0.0
2026-01-06	9.7	0.0
2026-01-13	9.4	0.0
2026-01-20	9.9	0.0
2026-01-27	9.9	0.0
2026-02-03	10.0	0.0
2026-02-10	12.6	0.0
2026-02-17	13.2	0.0
2026-02-24	14.2	0.0
2026-03-03	15.8	0.0
2026-03-10	12.7	0.0
2026-03-17	13.9	0.0
2026-03-24	14.8	0.0
2026-03-31	16.0	0.0
2026-04-07	13.4	0.0
2026-04-14	13.2	0.0
2026-04-21	13.2	0.0
2026-04-28	12.6	0.2
2026-05-05	12.6	0.4
2026-05-12	13.0	1.0

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	9.7	13.0	18.3
Jan 08	9.4	13.0	17.6
Jan 15	9.9	13.0	12.8
Jan 22	9.9	11.9	12.1
Jan 29	10.0	12.5	10.4
Feb 05	12.6	12.7	10.3
Feb 12	13.2	12.7	10.3
Feb 19	14.2	12.5	10.5
Feb 26	15.9	12.9	10.5
Mar 05	12.7	12.7	11.2
Mar 12	13.9	12.5	11.0
Mar 19	14.8	14.4	10.9
Mar 26	16.0	13.8	6.6
Apr 02	13.4	10.1	6.5
Apr 09	13.2	10.3	6.7
Apr 16	13.2	10.6	6.0
Apr 23	12.6	6.8	5.8
Apr 30	12.6	7.5	4.6
May 07	13.0	9.7	2.2

COT Positioning

Corn Futures

CFTC Code 002602 · COT data through 2026-05-12

455.75 ¢/bu

MM Net Position

+299,483

Managed money long minus short

88th pct

MM Week-over-Week

-44,442

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

2,533,115 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

97th pct

Commercial Net

-216,814

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

23th pct

Managed money is Heavily Long (88th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 44,442 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 216,814 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (97th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-16.4	253.3	-197.3
Jan 13	-81.8	292.2	-230.7
Jan 20	-81.3	311.7	-260.5
Jan 27	-72.0	350.7	-265.3
Feb 03	-68.8	364.2	-280.2
Feb 10	-48.2	332.4	-297.7
Feb 17	-27.4	353.5	-314.3
Feb 24	-13.9	337.5	-340.7
Mar 03	53.0	219.8	-295.3
Mar 10	193.3	146.5	-296.8
Mar 17	228.8	107.3	-255.9
Mar 24	284.5	74.6	-243.0
Mar 31	268.0	56.8	-251.7
Apr 07	218.6	53.6	-259.6
Apr 14	159.5	124.6	-263.6
Apr 21	184.4	112.8	-279.6
Apr 28	264.1	71.3	-238.5
May 05	343.9	13.9	-218.0
May 12	299.5	-85.0	-102.5

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-7.2	-217.5	198.4
Jan 13	78.8	-244.9	217.7
Jan 20	90.3	-286.6	264.1
Jan 27	71.0	-324.7	262.9
Feb 03	73.9	-340.7	267.7
Feb 10	62.5	-304.7	272.1
Feb 17	56.9	-331.9	290.4
Feb 24	39.8	-312.4	306.8
Mar 03	-32.3	-227.6	269.9
Mar 10	-177.1	-160.9	261.0
Mar 17	-217.9	-119.5	213.9
Mar 24	-277.3	-73.4	197.1
Mar 31	-237.1	-46.9	213.7
Apr 07	-188.9	-54.4	219.9
Apr 14	-147.2	-128.4	224.9
Apr 21	-158.9	-96.7	242.6
Apr 28	-237.7	-75.8	199.7
May 05	-325.8	-10.1	184.0
May 12	-216.8	85.2	76.0

Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	1,915.5	2,132.6	1,601.3
Jan 13	2,035.7	2,372.0	1,713.9
Jan 20	2,088.3	2,534.2	1,852.3
Jan 27	2,092.6	2,513.6	1,958.2
Feb 03	2,142.1	2,618.9	1,963.8
Feb 10	2,158.2	2,602.5	1,996.0
Feb 17	2,204.0	2,693.2	2,038.8
Feb 24	1,995.9	2,360.3	2,053.9
Mar 03	2,018.3	2,355.1	1,896.4
Mar 10	2,219.5	2,368.6	1,914.6
Mar 17	2,322.0	2,372.1	1,961.4
Mar 24	2,395.8	2,346.1	1,999.1
Mar 31	2,367.0	2,470.0	2,017.8
Apr 07	2,350.2	2,415.7	2,056.5
Apr 14	2,357.6	2,326.6	1,999.9
Apr 21	2,380.7	2,317.3	1,966.2
Apr 28	2,330.6	1,999.4	1,969.4
May 05	2,515.6	2,020.8	1,805.7
May 12	2,533.1	2,081.4	1,895.1

Nearby futures price (ZC=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Soybeans

USDA NASS · US Drought Monitor · CFTC Disaggregated COT · Full in-season report

Soybeans Belt Drought

13.0%

D2+ Severe drought coverage · 2026-05-12

Soybeans COT Positioning

Heavily Long

MM net percentile · 2026-05-12

96th pct

Crop Stress & Abandonment Risk

Crop Conditions & Progress

USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.

Belt Drought Monitor

Average drought coverage across Soybeans Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.

Date	D2+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-05-20	7.5	0.0
2025-05-27	6.1	0.0
2025-06-03	4.3	0.0
2025-06-10	3.1	0.0
2025-06-17	2.6	0.0
2025-06-24	2.5	0.0
2025-07-01	1.8	0.0
2025-07-08	1.7	0.0
2025-07-15	1.1	0.0
2025-07-22	1.0	0.0
2025-07-29	0.8	0.0
2025-08-05	0.3	0.0
2025-08-12	0.3	0.0
2025-08-19	0.3	0.0
2025-08-26	0.2	0.0
2025-09-02	0.2	0.0
2025-09-09	2.5	0.0
2025-09-16	7.1	0.0
2025-09-23	7.9	0.0
2025-09-30	8.2	0.0
2025-10-07	10.9	0.0
2025-10-14	12.3	0.0
2025-10-21	8.5	0.0
2025-10-28	10.2	0.0
2025-11-04	9.7	0.0
2025-11-11	9.3	0.0
2025-11-18	11.0	0.0
2025-11-25	9.2	0.0
2025-12-02	7.6	0.0
2025-12-09	7.7	0.0
2025-12-16	7.6	0.0
2025-12-23	7.7	0.0
2025-12-30	6.5	0.0
2026-01-06	9.7	0.0
2026-01-13	9.4	0.0
2026-01-20	9.9	0.0
2026-01-27	9.9	0.0
2026-02-03	10.0	0.0
2026-02-10	12.6	0.0
2026-02-17	13.2	0.0
2026-02-24	14.2	0.0
2026-03-03	15.8	0.0
2026-03-10	12.7	0.0
2026-03-17	13.9	0.0
2026-03-24	14.8	0.0
2026-03-31	16.0	0.0
2026-04-07	13.4	0.0
2026-04-14	13.2	0.0
2026-04-21	13.2	0.0
2026-04-28	12.6	0.2
2026-05-05	12.6	0.4
2026-05-12	13.0	1.0

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	9.7	13.0	18.3
Jan 08	9.4	13.0	17.6
Jan 15	9.9	13.0	12.8
Jan 22	9.9	11.9	12.1
Jan 29	10.0	12.5	10.4
Feb 05	12.6	12.7	10.3
Feb 12	13.2	12.7	10.3
Feb 19	14.2	12.5	10.5
Feb 26	15.9	12.9	10.5
Mar 05	12.7	12.7	11.2
Mar 12	13.9	12.5	11.0
Mar 19	14.8	14.4	10.9
Mar 26	16.0	13.8	6.6
Apr 02	13.4	10.1	6.5
Apr 09	13.2	10.3	6.7
Apr 16	13.2	10.6	6.0
Apr 23	12.6	6.8	5.8
Apr 30	12.6	7.5	4.6
May 07	13.0	9.7	2.2

COT Positioning

Soybeans Futures

CFTC Code 005602 · COT data through 2026-05-12

1,177.00 ¢/bu

MM Net Position

+214,815

Managed money long minus short

96th pct

MM Week-over-Week

-6,803

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

1,236,781 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

96th pct

Commercial Net

-191,438

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

7th pct

Managed money is Heavily Long (96th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 6,803 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 191,438 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (96th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	57.7	-28.6	-11.6
Jan 13	13.0	34.8	-31.2
Jan 20	10.1	40.3	-76.8
Jan 27	17.3	56.5	-91.8
Feb 03	28.8	57.0	-108.2
Feb 10	123.1	28.5	-130.3
Feb 17	163.6	16.5	-134.5
Feb 24	184.2	8.2	-136.7
Mar 03	198.9	-35.5	-160.7
Mar 10	222.1	-15.5	-172.0
Mar 17	202.0	-22.0	-155.1
Mar 24	197.9	-43.0	-148.3
Mar 31	213.4	-29.8	-134.8
Apr 07	189.6	-50.4	-138.3
Apr 14	175.2	26.2	-139.3
Apr 21	192.9	31.1	-167.9
Apr 28	185.3	38.2	-149.0
May 05	221.6	21.9	-149.2
May 12	214.8	38.4	-41.5

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-82.2	61.5	31.8
Jan 13	-31.8	0.5	51.7
Jan 20	-26.0	-5.2	112.4
Jan 27	-33.9	-16.7	122.8
Feb 03	-40.1	-23.2	152.0
Feb 10	-116.6	9.3	167.7
Feb 17	-153.8	24.5	166.5
Feb 24	-166.0	37.8	166.6
Mar 03	-176.4	67.2	195.6
Mar 10	-190.7	43.7	205.5
Mar 17	-177.0	43.3	185.2
Mar 24	-164.3	54.8	173.5
Mar 31	-179.4	33.0	155.2
Apr 07	-156.9	57.0	162.1
Apr 14	-151.3	-25.1	164.4
Apr 21	-169.0	-28.7	190.6
Apr 28	-163.7	-37.3	166.9
May 05	-206.0	-27.2	165.0
May 12	-191.4	-55.8	71.0

Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	961.9	1,013.3	789.5
Jan 13	1,018.8	1,051.7	833.6
Jan 20	1,038.4	1,113.0	874.5
Jan 27	1,047.7	1,083.5	931.4
Feb 03	1,084.8	1,131.7	956.2
Feb 10	1,207.2	1,131.9	991.4
Feb 17	1,281.1	1,128.4	1,005.2
Feb 24	1,190.5	997.8	1,037.6
Mar 03	1,241.1	1,024.1	922.2
Mar 10	1,306.2	1,014.0	927.9
Mar 17	1,286.1	1,038.1	951.8
Mar 24	1,255.1	1,044.0	995.0
Mar 31	1,239.7	1,064.1	1,022.7
Apr 07	1,263.3	1,128.1	1,054.8
Apr 14	1,271.0	1,063.4	1,064.9
Apr 21	1,256.9	1,069.6	1,126.8
Apr 28	1,096.4	950.1	1,057.4
May 05	1,193.0	986.9	911.2
May 12	1,236.8	1,047.8	954.3

Nearby futures price (ZS=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Winter Wheat

USDA NASS · US Drought Monitor · CFTC COT (SRW — Chicago & HRW — Chicago) · Full in-season report

Winter Wheat Conditions

28%

% Good + Excellent · 2026-05-10

Winter Wheat Stress

40% Critical

% Very Poor + Poor · 2026-05-10 +13pp vs 5yr avg

SRW Belt Drought

11.2%

D2+ Severe drought coverage · 2026-05-12

HRW Belt Drought

55.4%

D2+ Severe drought coverage · 2026-05-12

SRW COT Positioning

Moderately Long

MM net percentile · 2026-05-12

63th pct

HRW COT Positioning

Heavily Long

MM net percentile · 2026-05-12

86th pct

Crop Stress & Abandonment Risk

Current-week % Very Poor + Poor by HRW belt state. KS and OK together represent ~50% of US HRW production. Dashed line at 40% = elevated abandonment threshold.

National Crop Conditions & Progress

USDA NASS weekly fall planting progress. Pace relative to prior years signals early or delayed establishment entering winter.

USDA NASS weekly crop heading progress. Pace of heading relative to prior years reflects crop development speed and informs harvest timing expectations.

Belt Drought Monitor

Average drought coverage across SRW Belt states (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO, KY). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.

Date	D0+ (%)	D2+ (%)	D3+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-05-20	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-05-27	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-06-03	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
2025-06-10	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-06-17	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-06-24	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-07-01	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-07-08	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0
2025-07-15	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-07-22	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
2025-07-29	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
2025-08-05	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-08-12	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0
2025-08-19	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
2025-08-26	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
2025-09-02	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0
2025-09-09	0.0	4.5	0.0	0.0
2025-09-16	0.0	16.1	0.0	0.0
2025-09-23	0.0	17.7	0.0	0.0
2025-09-30	0.0	16.0	0.0	0.0
2025-10-07	0.0	19.6	0.0	0.0
2025-10-14	0.0	21.9	0.0	0.0
2025-10-21	0.0	15.2	0.0	0.0
2025-10-28	0.0	17.9	0.0	0.0
2025-11-04	0.0	16.6	0.0	0.0
2025-11-11	0.0	15.9	0.0	0.0
2025-11-18	0.0	16.5	0.0	0.0
2025-11-25	0.0	12.7	0.0	0.0
2025-12-02	0.0	10.0	0.0	0.0
2025-12-09	0.0	10.1	0.0	0.0
2025-12-16	0.0	10.0	0.0	0.0
2025-12-23	0.0	9.9	0.0	0.0
2025-12-30	0.0	7.9	0.0	0.0
2026-01-06	0.0	11.7	0.0	0.0
2026-01-13	0.0	12.6	0.0	0.0
2026-01-20	0.0	13.3	0.0	0.0
2026-01-27	0.0	13.3	0.0	0.0
2026-02-03	0.0	13.5	0.0	0.0
2026-02-10	0.0	17.4	0.0	0.0
2026-02-17	0.0	17.4	0.0	0.0
2026-02-24	0.0	18.0	0.0	0.0
2026-03-03	0.0	18.0	0.0	0.0
2026-03-10	0.0	11.9	0.0	0.0
2026-03-17	0.0	8.7	0.0	0.0
2026-03-24	0.0	6.4	0.0	0.0
2026-03-31	0.0	4.5	0.0	0.0
2026-04-07	0.0	4.3	0.0	0.0
2026-04-14	0.0	6.3	0.0	0.0
2026-04-21	0.0	8.0	0.0	0.0
2026-04-28	0.0	10.7	0.0	0.0
2026-05-05	0.0	10.7	0.0	0.0
2026-05-12	0.0	11.2	0.0	0.0

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	11.7	3.1	14.6
Jan 08	12.6	3.1	14.1
Jan 15	13.3	3.1	3.0
Jan 22	13.3	1.5	2.5
Jan 29	13.5	1.5	0.2
Feb 05	17.4	1.5	0.2
Feb 12	17.4	1.5	0.2
Feb 19	18.0	3.6	0.5
Feb 26	18.0	4.2	0.5
Mar 05	11.9	4.0	1.5
Mar 12	8.7	4.1	1.2
Mar 19	6.4	2.7	1.3
Mar 26	4.5	1.5	1.0
Apr 02	4.3	0.2	1.0
Apr 09	6.3	0.2	1.5
Apr 16	8.0	0.2	0.8
Apr 23	10.7	0.2	1.1
Apr 30	10.7	0.2	0.5
May 07	11.2	0.2	0.2

Average drought coverage across HRW Belt states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE, SD). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.

Date	D2+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-05-20	19.9	2.4
2025-05-27	17.5	2.3
2025-06-03	15.0	2.0
2025-06-10	12.5	1.7
2025-06-17	11.8	1.5
2025-06-24	12.0	1.5
2025-07-01	10.4	1.0
2025-07-08	8.8	0.7
2025-07-15	9.4	0.7
2025-07-22	9.0	0.1
2025-07-29	8.8	0.1
2025-08-05	8.3	0.1
2025-08-12	9.2	1.3
2025-08-19	9.5	1.2
2025-08-26	9.3	1.2
2025-09-02	8.8	0.1
2025-09-09	8.7	0.1
2025-09-16	8.2	0.1
2025-09-23	8.0	0.1
2025-09-30	8.2	0.1
2025-10-07	8.0	0.1
2025-10-14	5.3	0.1
2025-10-21	5.8	0.1
2025-10-28	5.4	0.0
2025-11-04	6.3	0.0
2025-11-11	8.1	0.0
2025-11-18	8.9	0.0
2025-11-25	8.2	0.0
2025-12-02	7.9	0.1
2025-12-09	7.8	0.1
2025-12-16	7.8	0.1
2025-12-23	8.8	0.1
2025-12-30	9.0	0.1
2026-01-06	12.3	0.2
2026-01-13	13.1	0.2
2026-01-20	14.5	0.2
2026-01-27	15.1	0.2
2026-02-03	16.9	0.2
2026-02-10	19.3	0.2
2026-02-17	20.6	0.2
2026-02-24	23.4	0.4
2026-03-03	29.9	0.7
2026-03-10	30.1	0.7
2026-03-17	36.7	0.7
2026-03-24	47.5	1.7
2026-03-31	56.2	4.4
2026-04-07	54.8	4.0
2026-04-14	58.7	3.9
2026-04-21	57.7	3.9
2026-04-28	57.2	3.5
2026-05-05	56.2	3.8
2026-05-12	55.4	4.8

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	12.3	19.8	11.3
Jan 08	13.1	20.2	9.2
Jan 15	14.5	20.1	8.6
Jan 22	15.0	18.5	6.5
Jan 29	16.9	19.8	6.1
Feb 05	19.2	20.2	5.3
Feb 12	20.6	19.6	4.5
Feb 19	23.4	20.3	4.5
Feb 26	29.9	21.1	4.5
Mar 05	30.1	21.1	4.5
Mar 12	36.7	25.2	4.6
Mar 19	47.5	29.2	4.0
Mar 26	56.2	28.8	3.0
Apr 02	54.8	23.2	2.9
Apr 09	58.7	24.1	2.9
Apr 16	57.7	22.5	4.4
Apr 23	57.3	19.1	7.0
Apr 30	56.2	19.4	9.1
May 07	55.4	21.6	8.2

COT Positioning — SRW (Chicago)

SRW Wheat (Chicago) Futures

CFTC Code 001602 · COT data through 2026-05-12

635.75 ¢/bu

MM Net Position

-19,023

Managed money long minus short

63th pct

MM Week-over-Week

-9,120

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

586,697 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

83th pct

Commercial Net

+18,350

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

36th pct

Managed money is Moderately Long (63th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 9,120 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net long position of 18,350 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (83th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-107.2	-88.6	-60.3
Jan 13	-106.2	-94.4	-58.0
Jan 20	-110.7	-91.8	-68.6
Jan 27	-94.7	-110.8	-64.5
Feb 03	-81.8	-90.4	-64.8
Feb 10	-85.7	-82.8	-66.7
Feb 17	-68.0	-61.6	-55.7
Feb 24	-17.3	-67.6	-68.5
Mar 03	-25.8	-82.4	-56.3
Mar 10	-22.3	-77.4	-65.5
Mar 17	-12.7	-80.7	-78.9
Mar 24	-2.2	-92.6	-80.6
Mar 31	8.6	-112.0	-92.1
Apr 07	-5.6	-102.1	-91.9
Apr 14	-7.3	-96.4	-86.6
Apr 21	-10.7	-89.9	-96.4
Apr 28	10.7	-121.4	-76.2
May 05	-9.9	-113.7	-47.9
May 12	-19.0	-126.9	-42.4

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	86.7	81.5	44.5
Jan 13	85.8	84.5	47.1
Jan 20	91.7	79.7	56.3
Jan 27	79.5	98.1	52.8
Feb 03	70.9	80.9	46.0
Feb 10	74.3	73.2	45.3
Feb 17	60.2	61.2	35.0
Feb 24	20.8	73.6	50.6
Mar 03	26.6	88.5	40.1
Mar 10	27.6	86.4	48.6
Mar 17	25.2	82.7	57.9
Mar 24	19.4	88.9	60.6
Mar 31	8.7	102.4	64.2
Apr 07	19.9	94.8	62.4
Apr 14	16.4	90.2	55.6
Apr 21	23.3	90.3	66.3
Apr 28	-0.4	114.6	53.1
May 05	11.0	107.5	35.3
May 12	18.4	119.2	32.6

Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	561.4	556.2	416.1
Jan 13	576.8	571.4	427.3
Jan 20	585.0	582.5	458.5
Jan 27	597.3	598.2	467.6
Feb 03	612.0	599.2	459.2
Feb 10	590.5	568.5	469.3
Feb 17	544.1	576.4	448.4
Feb 24	516.2	482.3	455.3
Mar 03	515.1	526.9	415.0
Mar 10	562.2	533.2	451.8
Mar 17	580.8	548.7	451.4
Mar 24	595.8	546.9	477.6
Mar 31	593.4	584.2	465.0
Apr 07	605.8	572.1	471.1
Apr 14	565.3	558.9	457.3
Apr 21	557.3	547.9	449.4
Apr 28	520.9	511.5	453.3
May 05	540.5	525.5	423.6
May 12	586.7	554.3	448.7

Nearby futures price (ZW=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

COT Positioning — HRW (Chicago)

HRW Wheat (Chicago) Futures

CFTC Code 001612 · COT data through 2026-05-12

688.00 ¢/bu

MM Net Position

+37,790

Managed money long minus short

86th pct

MM Week-over-Week

-80

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

356,338 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

98th pct

Commercial Net

-15,022

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

30th pct

Managed money is Heavily Long (86th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 80 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 15,022 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (98th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-15.7	-31.9	-34.5
Jan 13	-12.8	-37.6	-34.2
Jan 20	-13.0	-35.1	-38.7
Jan 27	-10.3	-42.4	-38.3
Feb 03	-8.8	-36.0	-33.4
Feb 10	-19.5	-30.2	-33.4
Feb 17	-10.6	-22.1	-36.4
Feb 24	4.2	-21.3	-41.9
Mar 03	1.9	-39.3	-42.1
Mar 10	9.4	-48.7	-40.9
Mar 17	10.7	-46.7	-35.5
Mar 24	9.7	-45.5	-37.9
Mar 31	21.5	-45.7	-42.6
Apr 07	15.6	-49.8	-40.5
Apr 14	16.9	-47.4	-44.6
Apr 21	28.0	-56.6	-49.2
Apr 28	30.6	-67.3	-48.2
May 05	37.9	-72.2	-29.6
May 12	37.8	-80.8	-24.0

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	3.2	19.8	25.2
Jan 13	7.1	24.8	23.7
Jan 20	12.7	21.7	32.5
Jan 27	8.1	29.0	29.3
Feb 03	11.0	17.2	22.6
Feb 10	22.5	13.9	24.2
Feb 17	10.2	4.3	30.7
Feb 24	-6.2	9.7	35.2
Mar 03	2.2	34.5	32.4
Mar 10	-2.2	42.2	31.6
Mar 17	-3.7	34.8	27.7
Mar 24	0.2	38.2	33.2
Mar 31	-11.7	39.4	37.3
Apr 07	-1.1	45.2	38.6
Apr 14	0.5	42.8	42.7
Apr 21	-13.3	44.8	45.7
Apr 28	-14.9	55.4	39.0
May 05	-16.6	58.2	28.2
May 12	-15.0	63.4	22.2

Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	314.3	291.5	221.6
Jan 13	316.9	300.1	226.1
Jan 20	325.1	313.2	232.3
Jan 27	330.4	304.7	241.7
Feb 03	334.5	294.8	252.2
Feb 10	315.9	278.9	266.1
Feb 17	329.3	274.4	270.1
Feb 24	326.6	240.8	269.4
Mar 03	317.7	258.2	261.6
Mar 10	323.2	273.9	276.2
Mar 17	336.3	276.3	288.6
Mar 24	341.7	282.0	294.6
Mar 31	331.4	301.9	295.6
Apr 07	329.0	287.5	316.9
Apr 14	333.7	293.6	298.2
Apr 21	339.9	285.4	291.8
Apr 28	322.7	281.2	285.0
May 05	337.4	298.2	254.2
May 12	356.3	315.0	258.9

Nearby futures price (KE=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.