% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 18.3 |
| Jan 08 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 17.6 |
| Jan 15 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Jan 22 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan 29 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Feb 05 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 12 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 19 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Feb 26 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| Mar 05 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| Mar 12 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar 19 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
| Mar 26 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 |
| Apr 02 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 6.5 |
| Apr 09 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| Apr 16 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 |
| Apr 23 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| Apr 30 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| May 07 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 2.2 |
| May 14 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 1.9 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -16.4 | 253.3 | -197.3 |
| Jan 13 | -81.8 | 292.2 | -230.7 |
| Jan 20 | -81.3 | 311.7 | -260.5 |
| Jan 27 | -72.0 | 350.7 | -265.3 |
| Feb 03 | -68.8 | 364.2 | -280.2 |
| Feb 10 | -48.2 | 332.4 | -297.7 |
| Feb 17 | -27.4 | 353.5 | -314.3 |
| Feb 24 | -13.9 | 337.5 | -340.7 |
| Mar 03 | 53.0 | 219.8 | -295.3 |
| Mar 10 | 193.3 | 146.5 | -296.8 |
| Mar 17 | 228.8 | 107.3 | -255.9 |
| Mar 24 | 284.5 | 74.6 | -243.0 |
| Mar 31 | 268.0 | 56.8 | -251.7 |
| Apr 07 | 218.6 | 53.6 | -259.6 |
| Apr 14 | 159.5 | 124.6 | -263.6 |
| Apr 21 | 184.4 | 112.8 | -279.6 |
| Apr 28 | 264.1 | 71.3 | -238.5 |
| May 05 | 343.9 | 13.9 | -218.0 |
| May 12 | 299.5 | -85.0 | -102.5 |
| May 19 | 293.4 | -103.2 | -71.2 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -7.2 | -217.5 | 198.4 |
| Jan 13 | 78.8 | -244.9 | 217.7 |
| Jan 20 | 90.3 | -286.6 | 264.1 |
| Jan 27 | 71.0 | -324.7 | 262.9 |
| Feb 03 | 73.9 | -340.7 | 267.7 |
| Feb 10 | 62.5 | -304.7 | 272.1 |
| Feb 17 | 56.9 | -331.9 | 290.4 |
| Feb 24 | 39.8 | -312.4 | 306.8 |
| Mar 03 | -32.3 | -227.6 | 269.9 |
| Mar 10 | -177.1 | -160.9 | 261.0 |
| Mar 17 | -217.9 | -119.5 | 213.9 |
| Mar 24 | -277.3 | -73.4 | 197.1 |
| Mar 31 | -237.1 | -46.9 | 213.7 |
| Apr 07 | -188.9 | -54.4 | 219.9 |
| Apr 14 | -147.2 | -128.4 | 224.9 |
| Apr 21 | -158.9 | -96.7 | 242.6 |
| Apr 28 | -237.7 | -75.8 | 199.7 |
| May 05 | -325.8 | -10.1 | 184.0 |
| May 12 | -216.8 | 85.2 | 76.0 |
| May 19 | -250.7 | 97.7 | 57.5 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 220.5 | 367.3 | 162.4 |
| Jan 13 | 198.4 | 393.2 | 157.7 |
| Jan 20 | 206.4 | 415.6 | 155.3 |
| Jan 27 | 216.9 | 447.2 | 158.2 |
| Feb 03 | 214.9 | 447.9 | 162.2 |
| Feb 10 | 216.4 | 417.8 | 168.8 |
| Feb 17 | 214.2 | 428.0 | 174.8 |
| Feb 24 | 223.2 | 415.8 | 164.4 |
| Mar 03 | 247.5 | 311.6 | 174.4 |
| Mar 10 | 334.6 | 258.6 | 173.8 |
| Mar 17 | 344.2 | 240.2 | 177.1 |
| Mar 24 | 363.9 | 230.7 | 171.1 |
| Mar 31 | 354.4 | 213.5 | 174.1 |
| Apr 07 | 316.3 | 213.6 | 170.4 |
| Apr 14 | 301.8 | 250.3 | 158.5 |
| Apr 21 | 329.1 | 269.0 | 161.6 |
| Apr 28 | 379.3 | 254.2 | 170.2 |
| May 05 | 441.2 | 218.3 | 176.0 |
| May 12 | 420.7 | 173.1 | 202.1 |
| May 19 | 426.6 | 175.9 | 218.6 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 236.9 | 114.0 | 359.7 |
| Jan 13 | 280.2 | 100.9 | 388.4 |
| Jan 20 | 287.8 | 103.9 | 415.8 |
| Jan 27 | 288.9 | 96.5 | 423.5 |
| Feb 03 | 283.7 | 83.7 | 442.4 |
| Feb 10 | 264.6 | 85.4 | 466.6 |
| Feb 17 | 241.6 | 74.5 | 489.2 |
| Feb 24 | 237.1 | 78.4 | 505.1 |
| Mar 03 | 194.5 | 91.9 | 469.7 |
| Mar 10 | 141.4 | 112.0 | 470.6 |
| Mar 17 | 115.4 | 133.0 | 433.0 |
| Mar 24 | 79.3 | 156.1 | 414.1 |
| Mar 31 | 86.4 | 156.8 | 425.9 |
| Apr 07 | 97.6 | 160.0 | 430.0 |
| Apr 14 | 142.4 | 125.7 | 422.0 |
| Apr 21 | 144.7 | 156.2 | 441.1 |
| Apr 28 | 115.2 | 182.9 | 408.8 |
| May 05 | 97.3 | 204.4 | 394.1 |
| May 12 | 121.2 | 258.1 | 304.7 |
| May 19 | 133.3 | 279.1 | 289.8 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 1,915.5 | 2,132.6 | 1,601.3 |
| Jan 13 | 2,035.7 | 2,372.0 | 1,713.9 |
| Jan 20 | 2,088.3 | 2,534.2 | 1,852.3 |
| Jan 27 | 2,092.6 | 2,513.6 | 1,958.2 |
| Feb 03 | 2,142.1 | 2,618.9 | 1,963.8 |
| Feb 10 | 2,158.2 | 2,602.5 | 1,996.0 |
| Feb 17 | 2,204.0 | 2,693.2 | 2,038.8 |
| Feb 24 | 1,995.9 | 2,360.3 | 2,053.9 |
| Mar 03 | 2,018.3 | 2,355.1 | 1,896.4 |
| Mar 10 | 2,219.5 | 2,368.6 | 1,914.6 |
| Mar 17 | 2,322.0 | 2,372.1 | 1,961.4 |
| Mar 24 | 2,395.8 | 2,346.1 | 1,999.1 |
| Mar 31 | 2,367.0 | 2,470.0 | 2,017.8 |
| Apr 07 | 2,350.2 | 2,415.7 | 2,056.5 |
| Apr 14 | 2,357.6 | 2,326.6 | 1,999.9 |
| Apr 21 | 2,380.7 | 2,317.3 | 1,966.2 |
| Apr 28 | 2,330.6 | 1,999.4 | 1,969.4 |
| May 05 | 2,515.6 | 2,020.8 | 1,805.7 |
| May 12 | 2,533.1 | 2,081.4 | 1,895.1 |
| May 19 | 2,562.3 | 2,153.5 | 1,973.8 |
Nearby futures price (ZC=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Soybeans Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, ND, MO, KS, MI, AR). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 12.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 14.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 18.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 21.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 19.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.0 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.0 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.0 | 20.7 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 0.0 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| Jan 08 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 16.1 |
| Jan 15 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| Jan 22 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 10.3 |
| Jan 29 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| Feb 05 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| Feb 12 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| Feb 19 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 8.5 |
| Feb 26 | 14.6 | 13.7 | 8.5 |
| Mar 05 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 9.0 |
| Mar 12 | 17.5 | 13.4 | 8.8 |
| Mar 19 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 8.7 |
| Mar 26 | 21.7 | 13.1 | 6.0 |
| Apr 02 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 5.8 |
| Apr 09 | 19.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 |
| Apr 16 | 21.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 |
| Apr 23 | 20.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| Apr 30 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| May 07 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 |
| May 14 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 57.7 | -28.6 | -11.6 |
| Jan 13 | 13.0 | 34.8 | -31.2 |
| Jan 20 | 10.1 | 40.3 | -76.8 |
| Jan 27 | 17.3 | 56.5 | -91.8 |
| Feb 03 | 28.8 | 57.0 | -108.2 |
| Feb 10 | 123.1 | 28.5 | -130.3 |
| Feb 17 | 163.6 | 16.5 | -134.5 |
| Feb 24 | 184.2 | 8.2 | -136.7 |
| Mar 03 | 198.9 | -35.5 | -160.7 |
| Mar 10 | 222.1 | -15.5 | -172.0 |
| Mar 17 | 202.0 | -22.0 | -155.1 |
| Mar 24 | 197.9 | -43.0 | -148.3 |
| Mar 31 | 213.4 | -29.8 | -134.8 |
| Apr 07 | 189.6 | -50.4 | -138.3 |
| Apr 14 | 175.2 | 26.2 | -139.3 |
| Apr 21 | 192.9 | 31.1 | -167.9 |
| Apr 28 | 185.3 | 38.2 | -149.0 |
| May 05 | 221.6 | 21.9 | -149.2 |
| May 12 | 214.8 | 38.4 | -41.5 |
| May 19 | 207.8 | 12.7 | -42.7 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -82.2 | 61.5 | 31.8 |
| Jan 13 | -31.8 | 0.5 | 51.7 |
| Jan 20 | -26.0 | -5.2 | 112.4 |
| Jan 27 | -33.9 | -16.7 | 122.8 |
| Feb 03 | -40.1 | -23.2 | 152.0 |
| Feb 10 | -116.6 | 9.3 | 167.7 |
| Feb 17 | -153.8 | 24.5 | 166.5 |
| Feb 24 | -166.0 | 37.8 | 166.6 |
| Mar 03 | -176.4 | 67.2 | 195.6 |
| Mar 10 | -190.7 | 43.7 | 205.5 |
| Mar 17 | -177.0 | 43.3 | 185.2 |
| Mar 24 | -164.3 | 54.8 | 173.5 |
| Mar 31 | -179.4 | 33.0 | 155.2 |
| Apr 07 | -156.9 | 57.0 | 162.1 |
| Apr 14 | -151.3 | -25.1 | 164.4 |
| Apr 21 | -169.0 | -28.7 | 190.6 |
| Apr 28 | -163.7 | -37.3 | 166.9 |
| May 05 | -206.0 | -27.2 | 165.0 |
| May 12 | -191.4 | -55.8 | 71.0 |
| May 19 | -180.1 | -31.5 | 80.0 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 121.6 | 107.2 | 69.8 |
| Jan 13 | 106.9 | 125.3 | 64.4 |
| Jan 20 | 99.1 | 130.2 | 53.8 |
| Jan 27 | 106.2 | 135.0 | 48.0 |
| Feb 03 | 121.6 | 130.3 | 42.5 |
| Feb 10 | 166.9 | 118.2 | 44.4 |
| Feb 17 | 200.8 | 112.9 | 49.0 |
| Feb 24 | 217.5 | 110.1 | 51.6 |
| Mar 03 | 239.4 | 93.9 | 48.2 |
| Mar 10 | 255.1 | 95.3 | 52.5 |
| Mar 17 | 235.2 | 90.5 | 56.3 |
| Mar 24 | 226.9 | 82.3 | 56.2 |
| Mar 31 | 239.0 | 81.7 | 58.7 |
| Apr 07 | 224.7 | 76.4 | 57.4 |
| Apr 14 | 207.4 | 108.1 | 54.1 |
| Apr 21 | 217.6 | 120.0 | 45.1 |
| Apr 28 | 207.4 | 117.6 | 47.2 |
| May 05 | 248.9 | 109.6 | 52.0 |
| May 12 | 241.9 | 123.2 | 79.6 |
| May 19 | 239.0 | 110.9 | 69.3 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 63.9 | 135.8 | 81.4 |
| Jan 13 | 93.9 | 90.4 | 95.6 |
| Jan 20 | 89.0 | 89.9 | 130.6 |
| Jan 27 | 88.8 | 78.5 | 139.8 |
| Feb 03 | 92.7 | 73.2 | 150.8 |
| Feb 10 | 43.8 | 89.7 | 174.7 |
| Feb 17 | 37.2 | 96.4 | 183.5 |
| Feb 24 | 33.3 | 101.9 | 188.3 |
| Mar 03 | 40.5 | 129.4 | 208.9 |
| Mar 10 | 33.0 | 110.9 | 224.5 |
| Mar 17 | 33.2 | 112.5 | 211.4 |
| Mar 24 | 28.9 | 125.2 | 204.5 |
| Mar 31 | 25.6 | 111.6 | 193.5 |
| Apr 07 | 35.1 | 126.9 | 195.7 |
| Apr 14 | 32.3 | 81.9 | 193.4 |
| Apr 21 | 24.7 | 89.0 | 213.0 |
| Apr 28 | 22.1 | 79.4 | 196.3 |
| May 05 | 27.3 | 87.7 | 201.2 |
| May 12 | 27.0 | 84.8 | 121.0 |
| May 19 | 31.1 | 98.3 | 112.0 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 961.9 | 1,013.3 | 789.5 |
| Jan 13 | 1,018.8 | 1,051.7 | 833.6 |
| Jan 20 | 1,038.4 | 1,113.0 | 874.5 |
| Jan 27 | 1,047.7 | 1,083.5 | 931.4 |
| Feb 03 | 1,084.8 | 1,131.7 | 956.2 |
| Feb 10 | 1,207.2 | 1,131.9 | 991.4 |
| Feb 17 | 1,281.1 | 1,128.4 | 1,005.2 |
| Feb 24 | 1,190.5 | 997.8 | 1,037.6 |
| Mar 03 | 1,241.1 | 1,024.1 | 922.2 |
| Mar 10 | 1,306.2 | 1,014.0 | 927.9 |
| Mar 17 | 1,286.1 | 1,038.1 | 951.8 |
| Mar 24 | 1,255.1 | 1,044.0 | 995.0 |
| Mar 31 | 1,239.7 | 1,064.1 | 1,022.7 |
| Apr 07 | 1,263.3 | 1,128.1 | 1,054.8 |
| Apr 14 | 1,271.0 | 1,063.4 | 1,064.9 |
| Apr 21 | 1,256.9 | 1,069.6 | 1,126.8 |
| Apr 28 | 1,096.4 | 950.1 | 1,057.4 |
| May 05 | 1,193.0 | 986.9 | 911.2 |
| May 12 | 1,236.8 | 1,047.8 | 954.3 |
| May 19 | 1,288.1 | 1,066.9 | 966.1 |
Nearby futures price (ZS=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
Current-week % Very Poor + Poor by HRW belt state. KS and OK together represent ~50% of US HRW production. Dashed line at 40% = elevated abandonment threshold.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly fall planting progress. Pace relative to prior years signals early or delayed establishment entering winter.
USDA NASS weekly crop heading progress. Pace of heading relative to prior years reflects crop development speed and informs harvest timing expectations.
Average drought coverage across SRW Belt states (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO, KY). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 19.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 17.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-12 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 14.6 |
| Jan 08 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Jan 15 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Jan 22 | 13.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Jan 29 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 05 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 12 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 19 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Feb 26 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| Mar 05 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Mar 12 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Mar 19 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Mar 26 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Apr 02 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Apr 09 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Apr 16 | 8.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Apr 23 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Apr 30 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| May 07 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| May 14 | 14.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Average drought coverage across HRW Belt states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE, SD). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 16.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 20.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 54.8 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 0.0 | 58.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 0.0 | 57.7 | 0.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 0.0 | 57.2 | 0.0 | 3.5 |
| 2026-05-05 | 0.0 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 3.8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 0.0 | 55.4 | 0.0 | 4.8 |
| 2026-05-19 | 0.0 | 53.9 | 0.0 | 3.8 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 12.3 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
| Jan 08 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 9.2 |
| Jan 15 | 14.5 | 20.1 | 8.6 |
| Jan 22 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 6.5 |
| Jan 29 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 6.1 |
| Feb 05 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 5.3 |
| Feb 12 | 20.6 | 19.6 | 4.5 |
| Feb 19 | 23.4 | 20.3 | 4.5 |
| Feb 26 | 29.9 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 05 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 12 | 36.7 | 25.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar 19 | 47.5 | 29.2 | 4.0 |
| Mar 26 | 56.2 | 28.8 | 3.0 |
| Apr 02 | 54.8 | 23.2 | 2.9 |
| Apr 09 | 58.7 | 24.1 | 2.9 |
| Apr 16 | 57.7 | 22.5 | 4.4 |
| Apr 23 | 57.3 | 19.1 | 7.0 |
| Apr 30 | 56.2 | 19.4 | 9.1 |
| May 07 | 55.4 | 21.6 | 8.2 |
| May 14 | 53.9 | 19.9 | 8.8 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -107.2 | -88.6 | -60.3 |
| Jan 13 | -106.2 | -94.4 | -58.0 |
| Jan 20 | -110.7 | -91.8 | -68.6 |
| Jan 27 | -94.7 | -110.8 | -64.5 |
| Feb 03 | -81.8 | -90.4 | -64.8 |
| Feb 10 | -85.7 | -82.8 | -66.7 |
| Feb 17 | -68.0 | -61.6 | -55.7 |
| Feb 24 | -17.3 | -67.6 | -68.5 |
| Mar 03 | -25.8 | -82.4 | -56.3 |
| Mar 10 | -22.3 | -77.4 | -65.5 |
| Mar 17 | -12.7 | -80.7 | -78.9 |
| Mar 24 | -2.2 | -92.6 | -80.6 |
| Mar 31 | 8.6 | -112.0 | -92.1 |
| Apr 07 | -5.6 | -102.1 | -91.9 |
| Apr 14 | -7.3 | -96.4 | -86.6 |
| Apr 21 | -10.7 | -89.9 | -96.4 |
| Apr 28 | 10.7 | -121.4 | -76.2 |
| May 05 | -9.9 | -113.7 | -47.9 |
| May 12 | -19.0 | -126.9 | -42.4 |
| May 19 | -4.8 | -108.9 | -28.3 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 86.7 | 81.5 | 44.5 |
| Jan 13 | 85.8 | 84.5 | 47.1 |
| Jan 20 | 91.7 | 79.7 | 56.3 |
| Jan 27 | 79.5 | 98.1 | 52.8 |
| Feb 03 | 70.9 | 80.9 | 46.0 |
| Feb 10 | 74.3 | 73.2 | 45.3 |
| Feb 17 | 60.2 | 61.2 | 35.0 |
| Feb 24 | 20.8 | 73.6 | 50.6 |
| Mar 03 | 26.6 | 88.5 | 40.1 |
| Mar 10 | 27.6 | 86.4 | 48.6 |
| Mar 17 | 25.2 | 82.7 | 57.9 |
| Mar 24 | 19.4 | 88.9 | 60.6 |
| Mar 31 | 8.7 | 102.4 | 64.2 |
| Apr 07 | 19.9 | 94.8 | 62.4 |
| Apr 14 | 16.4 | 90.2 | 55.6 |
| Apr 21 | 23.3 | 90.3 | 66.3 |
| Apr 28 | -0.4 | 114.6 | 53.1 |
| May 05 | 11.0 | 107.5 | 35.3 |
| May 12 | 18.4 | 119.2 | 32.6 |
| May 19 | 3.8 | 105.8 | 21.6 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 92.0 | 86.4 | 69.8 |
| Jan 13 | 91.3 | 85.1 | 70.3 |
| Jan 20 | 87.5 | 83.2 | 73.5 |
| Jan 27 | 87.7 | 77.0 | 71.2 |
| Feb 03 | 88.2 | 74.7 | 73.1 |
| Feb 10 | 88.9 | 76.3 | 75.1 |
| Feb 17 | 85.5 | 70.8 | 79.3 |
| Feb 24 | 104.8 | 70.5 | 80.9 |
| Mar 03 | 94.1 | 77.3 | 85.0 |
| Mar 10 | 96.0 | 77.9 | 89.3 |
| Mar 17 | 100.8 | 75.0 | 77.4 |
| Mar 24 | 109.7 | 73.8 | 80.7 |
| Mar 31 | 117.4 | 69.5 | 78.0 |
| Apr 07 | 109.4 | 71.7 | 80.2 |
| Apr 14 | 102.3 | 69.4 | 77.9 |
| Apr 21 | 95.2 | 75.9 | 76.5 |
| Apr 28 | 106.2 | 72.3 | 79.2 |
| May 05 | 99.5 | 77.4 | 78.4 |
| May 12 | 100.8 | 80.2 | 77.8 |
| May 19 | 110.7 | 83.8 | 83.4 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 199.1 | 175.0 | 130.1 |
| Jan 13 | 197.5 | 179.5 | 128.3 |
| Jan 20 | 198.2 | 175.0 | 142.1 |
| Jan 27 | 182.5 | 187.8 | 135.8 |
| Feb 03 | 170.0 | 165.1 | 138.0 |
| Feb 10 | 174.6 | 159.1 | 141.9 |
| Feb 17 | 153.5 | 132.3 | 135.0 |
| Feb 24 | 122.1 | 138.1 | 149.4 |
| Mar 03 | 119.9 | 159.7 | 141.3 |
| Mar 10 | 118.4 | 155.4 | 154.8 |
| Mar 17 | 113.5 | 155.6 | 156.3 |
| Mar 24 | 111.9 | 166.3 | 161.3 |
| Mar 31 | 108.7 | 181.6 | 170.1 |
| Apr 07 | 115.0 | 173.8 | 172.2 |
| Apr 14 | 109.6 | 165.9 | 164.5 |
| Apr 21 | 105.9 | 165.9 | 172.9 |
| Apr 28 | 95.5 | 193.8 | 155.3 |
| May 05 | 109.4 | 191.1 | 126.2 |
| May 12 | 119.8 | 207.1 | 120.1 |
| May 19 | 115.5 | 192.7 | 111.7 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 561.4 | 556.2 | 416.1 |
| Jan 13 | 576.8 | 571.4 | 427.3 |
| Jan 20 | 585.0 | 582.5 | 458.5 |
| Jan 27 | 597.3 | 598.2 | 467.6 |
| Feb 03 | 612.0 | 599.2 | 459.2 |
| Feb 10 | 590.5 | 568.5 | 469.3 |
| Feb 17 | 544.1 | 576.4 | 448.4 |
| Feb 24 | 516.2 | 482.3 | 455.3 |
| Mar 03 | 515.1 | 526.9 | 415.0 |
| Mar 10 | 562.2 | 533.2 | 451.8 |
| Mar 17 | 580.8 | 548.7 | 451.4 |
| Mar 24 | 595.8 | 546.9 | 477.6 |
| Mar 31 | 593.4 | 584.2 | 465.0 |
| Apr 07 | 605.8 | 572.1 | 471.1 |
| Apr 14 | 565.3 | 558.9 | 457.3 |
| Apr 21 | 557.3 | 547.9 | 449.4 |
| Apr 28 | 520.9 | 511.5 | 453.3 |
| May 05 | 540.5 | 525.5 | 423.6 |
| May 12 | 586.7 | 554.3 | 448.7 |
| May 19 | 608.9 | 549.6 | 492.0 |
Nearby futures price (ZW=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -15.7 | -31.9 | -34.5 |
| Jan 13 | -12.8 | -37.6 | -34.2 |
| Jan 20 | -13.0 | -35.1 | -38.7 |
| Jan 27 | -10.3 | -42.4 | -38.3 |
| Feb 03 | -8.8 | -36.0 | -33.4 |
| Feb 10 | -19.5 | -30.2 | -33.4 |
| Feb 17 | -10.6 | -22.1 | -36.4 |
| Feb 24 | 4.2 | -21.3 | -41.9 |
| Mar 03 | 1.9 | -39.3 | -42.1 |
| Mar 10 | 9.4 | -48.7 | -40.9 |
| Mar 17 | 10.7 | -46.7 | -35.5 |
| Mar 24 | 9.7 | -45.5 | -37.9 |
| Mar 31 | 21.5 | -45.7 | -42.6 |
| Apr 07 | 15.6 | -49.8 | -40.5 |
| Apr 14 | 16.9 | -47.4 | -44.6 |
| Apr 21 | 28.0 | -56.6 | -49.2 |
| Apr 28 | 30.6 | -67.3 | -48.2 |
| May 05 | 37.9 | -72.2 | -29.6 |
| May 12 | 37.8 | -80.8 | -24.0 |
| May 19 | 30.1 | -80.2 | -17.3 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 3.2 | 19.8 | 25.2 |
| Jan 13 | 7.1 | 24.8 | 23.7 |
| Jan 20 | 12.7 | 21.7 | 32.5 |
| Jan 27 | 8.1 | 29.0 | 29.3 |
| Feb 03 | 11.0 | 17.2 | 22.6 |
| Feb 10 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 24.2 |
| Feb 17 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 30.7 |
| Feb 24 | -6.2 | 9.7 | 35.2 |
| Mar 03 | 2.2 | 34.5 | 32.4 |
| Mar 10 | -2.2 | 42.2 | 31.6 |
| Mar 17 | -3.7 | 34.8 | 27.7 |
| Mar 24 | 0.2 | 38.2 | 33.2 |
| Mar 31 | -11.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 |
| Apr 07 | -1.1 | 45.2 | 38.6 |
| Apr 14 | 0.5 | 42.8 | 42.7 |
| Apr 21 | -13.3 | 44.8 | 45.7 |
| Apr 28 | -14.9 | 55.4 | 39.0 |
| May 05 | -16.6 | 58.2 | 28.2 |
| May 12 | -15.0 | 63.4 | 22.2 |
| May 19 | -4.5 | 58.3 | 13.2 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 66.3 | 51.4 | 36.3 |
| Jan 13 | 64.8 | 47.8 | 37.0 |
| Jan 20 | 63.0 | 51.3 | 38.6 |
| Jan 27 | 63.4 | 49.6 | 39.7 |
| Feb 03 | 70.2 | 45.6 | 41.4 |
| Feb 10 | 64.4 | 39.5 | 43.7 |
| Feb 17 | 68.0 | 33.5 | 45.4 |
| Feb 24 | 75.1 | 30.4 | 45.8 |
| Mar 03 | 69.1 | 28.9 | 49.2 |
| Mar 10 | 68.7 | 31.4 | 51.9 |
| Mar 17 | 70.9 | 29.4 | 54.1 |
| Mar 24 | 68.9 | 29.5 | 55.4 |
| Mar 31 | 71.9 | 37.3 | 50.9 |
| Apr 07 | 73.2 | 37.4 | 52.7 |
| Apr 14 | 62.1 | 40.4 | 46.0 |
| Apr 21 | 67.6 | 37.5 | 42.9 |
| Apr 28 | 70.9 | 39.6 | 40.8 |
| May 05 | 75.5 | 38.9 | 36.3 |
| May 12 | 73.9 | 34.9 | 36.1 |
| May 19 | 74.4 | 36.5 | 38.3 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 81.9 | 83.3 | 70.8 |
| Jan 13 | 77.6 | 85.4 | 71.2 |
| Jan 20 | 76.0 | 86.4 | 77.2 |
| Jan 27 | 73.7 | 91.9 | 78.1 |
| Feb 03 | 79.1 | 81.6 | 74.7 |
| Feb 10 | 83.9 | 69.8 | 77.1 |
| Feb 17 | 78.6 | 55.6 | 81.8 |
| Feb 24 | 70.9 | 51.7 | 87.7 |
| Mar 03 | 67.3 | 68.1 | 91.3 |
| Mar 10 | 59.3 | 80.1 | 92.8 |
| Mar 17 | 60.2 | 76.0 | 89.7 |
| Mar 24 | 59.2 | 75.0 | 93.2 |
| Mar 31 | 50.3 | 83.0 | 93.6 |
| Apr 07 | 57.6 | 87.2 | 93.2 |
| Apr 14 | 45.2 | 87.8 | 90.7 |
| Apr 21 | 39.6 | 94.1 | 92.2 |
| Apr 28 | 40.2 | 106.9 | 89.0 |
| May 05 | 37.6 | 111.1 | 65.9 |
| May 12 | 36.1 | 115.7 | 60.1 |
| May 19 | 44.3 | 116.6 | 55.5 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 314.3 | 291.5 | 221.6 |
| Jan 13 | 316.9 | 300.1 | 226.1 |
| Jan 20 | 325.1 | 313.2 | 232.3 |
| Jan 27 | 330.4 | 304.7 | 241.7 |
| Feb 03 | 334.5 | 294.8 | 252.2 |
| Feb 10 | 315.9 | 278.9 | 266.1 |
| Feb 17 | 329.3 | 274.4 | 270.1 |
| Feb 24 | 326.6 | 240.8 | 269.4 |
| Mar 03 | 317.7 | 258.2 | 261.6 |
| Mar 10 | 323.2 | 273.9 | 276.2 |
| Mar 17 | 336.3 | 276.3 | 288.6 |
| Mar 24 | 341.7 | 282.0 | 294.6 |
| Mar 31 | 331.4 | 301.9 | 295.6 |
| Apr 07 | 329.0 | 287.5 | 316.9 |
| Apr 14 | 333.7 | 293.6 | 298.2 |
| Apr 21 | 339.9 | 285.4 | 291.8 |
| Apr 28 | 322.7 | 281.2 | 285.0 |
| May 05 | 337.4 | 298.2 | 254.2 |
| May 12 | 356.3 | 315.0 | 258.9 |
| May 19 | 355.1 | 322.0 | 267.4 |
Nearby futures price (KE=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.
Source: USDA WASDE · WASDE #671