Grain Outlook | US — Weekly SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com Report date: May 29, 2026 Data as of: CFTC COT as of 05/24/2026 | USDA NASS | US Drought Monitor HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/grain_outlook_5d7ae4f0.html ──────────────────────────────────── AT A GLANCE Report date : May 29, 2026 Report type : Full season — conditions, progress, drought & COT Markets : Corn · Soybeans · Winter Wheat (SRW + HRW) ──────────────────────────────────── MANAGED MONEY POSITIONING | Market | MM Net | Percentile | Positioning | | ------------------- | ------------ | ---------- | --------------- | | Corn | +293,354 cts | 88th pct | Heavily Long | | Soybeans | +207,804 cts | 95th pct | Heavily Long | | SRW Wheat (Chicago) | -4,799 cts | 74th pct | Moderately Long | | HRW Wheat (Chicago) | +30,075 cts | 82th pct | Heavily Long | ──────────────────────────────────── COT MARKET ANALYSIS === Corn === Managed money is Heavily Long (88th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 6,130 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 250,666 contracts . Open interest is at an elevated level historically (98th percentile). === Soybeans === Managed money is Heavily Long (95th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 7,011 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 180,074 contracts . Open interest is at an elevated level historically (99th percentile). === SRW Wheat (Chicago) === Managed money is Moderately Long (74th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money added 14,224 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net long position of 3,766 contracts . Open interest is at an elevated level historically (90th percentile). === HRW Wheat (Chicago) === Managed money is Heavily Long (82th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 7,714 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 4,471 contracts . Open interest is at an elevated level historically (98th percentile). ──────────────────────────────────── STRUCTURAL HEDGING PRESSURE INDEX (SHPI) | Market | Pressure Rank | Level | | ------------------- | ------------- | -------- | | Corn | 94th pct | Elevated | | Soybeans | 91th pct | Elevated | | SRW Wheat (Chicago) | 13th pct | Low | | HRW Wheat (Chicago) | 23th pct | Low | SHPI measures the total options-layer positioning of all three trader categories (MM + Swap Dealers + Producers/Merchants) relative to total open interest. Elevated SHPI (≥75th pct) means heavy options hedging — typically associated with directional uncertainty or volatility-seeking behavior. Positive MM options net = funds are net long calls or short puts (bullish options skew). Positive producer options net = producers bought puts (downside protection — bearish signal). --- Corn --- | Date | Pressure (pct) | MM Options Net | Swap Options Net | Prod Options Net | | ---------- | -------------- | -------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | 2026-03-31 | 77th | +182.1k | +32.1k | -200.8k | | 2026-04-07 | 80th | +179.5k | +39.0k | -208.3k | | 2026-04-14 | 81th | +170.9k | +54.4k | -219.8k | | 2026-04-21 | 84th | +175.1k | +62.1k | -242.5k | | 2026-04-28 | 89th | +207.3k | +72.0k | -285.3k | | 2026-05-05 | 92th | +269.3k | +71.3k | -343.3k | | 2026-05-12 | 92th | +266.3k | +96.1k | -334.7k | | 2026-05-19 | 94th | +272.7k | +120.2k | -371.4k | --- Soybeans --- | Date | Pressure (pct) | MM Options Net | Swap Options Net | Prod Options Net | | ---------- | -------------- | -------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | 2026-03-31 | 80th | +88.9k | +30.5k | -82.3k | | 2026-04-07 | 80th | +88.9k | +34.3k | -85.9k | | 2026-04-14 | 79th | +83.9k | +38.3k | -81.8k | | 2026-04-21 | 84th | +97.6k | +36.9k | -96.5k | | 2026-04-28 | 87th | +105.0k | +27.3k | -99.0k | | 2026-05-05 | 89th | +130.6k | +27.3k | -120.9k | | 2026-05-12 | 90th | +143.6k | +31.3k | -128.7k | | 2026-05-19 | 91th | +165.3k | +31.1k | -150.3k | --- SRW Wheat (Chicago) --- | Date | Pressure (pct) | MM Options Net | Swap Options Net | Prod Options Net | | ---------- | -------------- | -------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | 2026-03-31 | 94th | +36.0k | +60.4k | -81.4k | | 2026-04-07 | 94th | +50.8k | +43.9k | -83.6k | | 2026-04-14 | 94th | +13.2k | +84.2k | -67.3k | | 2026-04-21 | 90th | -8.3k | +77.8k | -47.7k | | 2026-04-28 | 95th | +10.1k | +75.4k | -75.2k | | 2026-05-05 | 6th | +1.9k | -0.1k | -2.2k | | 2026-05-12 | 10th | +4.2k | -0.1k | -3.1k | | 2026-05-19 | 13th | +6.4k | -0.1k | -4.2k | --- HRW Wheat (Chicago) --- | Date | Pressure (pct) | MM Options Net | Swap Options Net | Prod Options Net | | ---------- | -------------- | -------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | | 2026-03-31 | 95th | +28.6k | +34.4k | -62.4k | | 2026-04-07 | 97th | +34.5k | +40.9k | -69.2k | | 2026-04-14 | 98th | +16.1k | +75.5k | -75.8k | | 2026-04-21 | 99th | +26.2k | +77.6k | -88.2k | | 2026-04-28 | 99th | +30.7k | +75.7k | -90.4k | | 2026-05-05 | 18th | +2.6k | -0.1k | -1.3k | | 2026-05-12 | 21th | +3.2k | -0.1k | -1.5k | | 2026-05-19 | 23th | +4.1k | -0.2k | -1.7k | ──────────────────────────────────── CROP CONDITIONS & DROUGHT • Corn: D2+ drought 12.8% • Soybeans: D2+ drought 21.0% • SRW Wheat (Chicago): Conditions 27% G/E | D2+ drought 14.8% • HRW Wheat (Chicago): Conditions 27% G/E | D2+ drought 53.9% ──────────────────────────────────── WORLD EX-CHINA SUPPLY CONTEXT (STU) | Commodity | World STU | Ex-China STU | Signal | Marketing Year | | --------- | --------- | ---------------- | ------------------ | -------------- | | Corn | 18.2% | 9.3% (40th pct) | below average | 2026/27 | | Soybeans | 19.8% | 16.3% (20th pct) | historically tight | 2026/27 | | Wheat | 26.6% | 17.4% (60th pct) | near average | 2026/27 | ──────────────────────────────────── DATA SOURCES • CFTC Disaggregated COT (Corn, Soybeans, Wheat) • USDA NASS Crop Progress & Conditions • US Drought Monitor This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. © 2026 SoftSignal LLC