| Market | Price | Positioning | Ex-China stocks-to-use | Conditions | Belt drought |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 455.00¢61st over 15 yrsnormal | +146,25767th over 15 yrsnormal | 9.6%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | 56% G/Econtext | 16% D2+context |
| Soybeans | 1,253.50¢63rd over 15 yrsnormal | +206,93693rd over 15 yrsunusual high | 16.1%lowest crop year in 8 yrsunusual low | 57% G/Econtext | 19% D2+context |
| Chicago SRW Wheat | 615.50¢64th over 15 yrsnormal | -51,13440th over 15 yrsnormal | 17.7%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | — | 8% D2+context |
| KC HRW Wheat | 658.50¢66th over 15 yrsnormal | +6,39549th over 15 yrsnormal | 17.7%5th-highest crop year in 8 yrsnormal | — | 32% D2+context |
This weekCorn settled at 455.00¢/bu, the 61st percentile over 15 yrs, +8% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 431.50 |
| 2025-11-07 | 427.25 |
| 2025-11-14 | 430.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 425.50 |
| 2025-11-28 | 435.50 |
| 2025-12-05 | 436.75 |
| 2025-12-12 | 431.50 |
| 2025-12-19 | 443.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | 450.00 |
| 2026-01-02 | 437.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 445.75 |
| 2026-01-16 | 424.75 |
| 2026-01-23 | 430.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 428.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 430.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 431.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | 427.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 438.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | 447.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | 452.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | 465.50 |
| 2026-03-27 | 462.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | 452.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | 441.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | 448.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | 455.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | 468.25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 456.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | 455.75 |
| 2026-05-22 | 463.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | 446.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 417.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 412.75 |
| 2026-06-19 | 417.50 |
| 2026-06-26 | 412.75 |
| 2026-07-03 | 425.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 438.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 444.75 |
| 2026-07-24 | 464.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | 440.75 |
| 2026-08-07 | 439.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 459.00 |
| 2026-08-21 | 483.75 |
| 2026-08-28 | 512.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | 512.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | 510.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | 527.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 528.25 |
| 2026-10-02 | 497.75 |
| 2026-10-09 | 479.75 |
| 2026-10-16 | 474.25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 456.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 455.00 |
This weekFunds are net long 146,257 contracts, the 67th percentile over 15 yrs, from +92,909 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 96th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | -160,985 |
| 2025-10-28 | -89,506 |
| 2025-11-04 | -71,516 |
| 2025-11-10 | -39,523 |
| 2025-11-18 | 38,127 |
| 2025-11-25 | -10,872 |
| 2025-12-02 | 23,270 |
| 2025-12-09 | 9,718 |
| 2025-12-16 | -52,672 |
| 2025-12-23 | 2,759 |
| 2025-12-30 | -23,584 |
| 2026-01-06 | -16,426 |
| 2026-01-13 | -81,774 |
| 2026-01-20 | -81,324 |
| 2026-01-27 | -72,050 |
| 2026-02-03 | -68,786 |
| 2026-02-10 | -48,210 |
| 2026-02-17 | -27,415 |
| 2026-02-24 | -13,867 |
| 2026-03-03 | 52,974 |
| 2026-03-10 | 193,271 |
| 2026-03-17 | 228,804 |
| 2026-03-24 | 284,548 |
| 2026-03-31 | 267,974 |
| 2026-04-07 | 218,632 |
| 2026-04-14 | 159,483 |
| 2026-04-21 | 184,406 |
| 2026-04-28 | 264,103 |
| 2026-05-05 | 343,925 |
| 2026-05-12 | 299,483 |
| 2026-05-19 | 293,354 |
| 2026-05-26 | 205,504 |
| 2026-06-02 | 115,082 |
| 2026-06-09 | -5,325 |
| 2026-06-16 | -46,427 |
| 2026-06-23 | -69,691 |
| 2026-06-30 | -46,209 |
| 2026-07-07 | 12,659 |
| 2026-07-14 | 43,391 |
| 2026-07-21 | 92,909 |
| 2026-07-28 | 168,399 |
| 2026-08-04 | 181,946 |
| 2026-08-11 | 166,770 |
| 2026-08-18 | 250,505 |
| 2026-08-25 | 376,513 |
| 2026-09-01 | 431,062 |
| 2026-09-08 | 425,171 |
| 2026-09-15 | 426,842 |
| 2026-09-22 | 414,437 |
| 2026-09-29 | 377,850 |
| 2026-10-06 | 317,359 |
| 2026-10-13 | 230,877 |
| 2026-10-20 | 146,257 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
97% silked, near the 5-year pace — conditions 56% Good+Excellent, 0.7pt above a normal year at this week.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 60.8 | 10.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 58.4 | 9.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 56.9 | 9.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 62.1 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 60.3 | 9.2 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 59.9 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 60.4 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 60.0 | 7.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 61.0 | 7.7 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 62.3 | 6.5 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 65.1 | 9.7 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 57.3 | 9.4 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 58.5 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 59.2 | 9.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 59.5 | 10.0 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 62.6 | 12.6 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 63.3 | 13.2 | 3.7 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 64.6 | 14.2 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 71.3 | 15.8 | 4.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 63.9 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 55.4 | 13.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 55.1 | 14.8 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 55.2 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 44.0 | 13.4 | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 38.4 | 13.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 30.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 26.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-05-05 | 26.4 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 31.6 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 35.0 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 0.9 |
| 2026-05-26 | 42.6 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 0.8 |
| 2026-06-02 | 55.0 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 0.9 |
| 2026-06-09 | 52.5 | 11.9 | 6.3 | 0.6 |
| 2026-06-16 | 47.0 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 0.7 |
| 2026-06-23 | 44.6 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 0.7 |
| 2026-06-30 | 39.8 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-07 | 40.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 41.7 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-21 | 46.0 | 10.1 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-28 | 55.5 | 14.3 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-04 | 57.4 | 16.0 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | 56.6 | 18.7 | 3.5 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 52.8 | 19.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 53.3 | 22.2 | 4.9 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-01 | 54.5 | 22.1 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-08 | 59.9 | 21.3 | 5.5 | 0.1 |
| 2026-09-15 | 58.1 | 20.9 | 5.8 | 0.1 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.6 | 19.4 | 5.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-09-29 | 47.8 | 15.8 | 5.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-10-06 | 46.9 | 15.7 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-13 | 49.1 | 16.4 | 5.4 | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-20 | 52.7 | 16.0 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 18.3 |
| Jan 08 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 17.6 |
| Jan 15 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Jan 22 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan 29 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Feb 05 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 12 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 19 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Feb 26 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| Mar 05 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| Mar 12 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar 19 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
| Mar 26 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 |
| Apr 02 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 6.5 |
| Apr 09 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 6.7 |
| Apr 16 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 6.0 |
| Apr 23 | 12.6 | 6.8 | 5.8 |
| Apr 30 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 4.6 |
| May 07 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 2.2 |
| May 14 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 1.9 |
| May 21 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 0.0 |
| May 28 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 0.0 |
| Jun 04 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| Jun 11 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Jun 18 | 11.8 | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Jun 25 | 9.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| Jul 02 | 9.2 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| Jul 09 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 16 | 10.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Jul 23 | 14.3 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Jul 30 | 16.0 | 0.4 | 2.1 |
| Aug 06 | 18.7 | 0.3 | 2.9 |
| Aug 13 | 19.0 | 0.3 | 3.0 |
| Aug 20 | 22.2 | 0.3 | 4.0 |
| Aug 27 | 22.1 | 0.2 | 4.5 |
| Sep 03 | 21.3 | 2.5 | 5.5 |
| Sep 10 | 21.0 | 7.1 | 7.2 |
| Sep 17 | 19.4 | 7.9 | 10.9 |
| Sep 24 | 15.8 | 8.2 | 10.9 |
| Oct 01 | 15.7 | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| Oct 08 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 16.3 |
| Oct 15 | 16.0 | 8.5 | 23.9 |
This weekSoybeans settled at 1,253.50¢/bu, the 63rd percentile over 15 yrs, +20% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 1,099.75 |
| 2025-11-07 | 1,101.75 |
| 2025-11-14 | 1,112.75 |
| 2025-11-21 | 1,125.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 1,137.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1,105.25 |
| 2025-12-12 | 1,076.75 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1,049.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | 1,058.75 |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,029.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 1,048.50 |
| 2026-01-16 | 1,057.75 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,067.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 1,064.25 |
| 2026-02-06 | 1,115.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1,133.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1,137.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,157.25 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,185.00 |
| 2026-03-13 | 1,211.00 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,161.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 1,159.25 |
| 2026-04-03 | 1,163.50 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,175.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,167.25 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,163.75 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1,187.75 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1,194.25 |
| 2026-05-15 | 1,177.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | 1,196.50 |
| 2026-05-29 | 1,186.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 1,121.50 |
| 2026-06-12 | 1,113.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 1,122.75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 1,126.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | 1,131.75 |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,196.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 1,204.50 |
| 2026-07-24 | 1,248.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 1,172.00 |
| 2026-08-07 | 1,156.50 |
| 2026-08-14 | 1,173.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | 1,225.00 |
| 2026-08-28 | 1,276.25 |
| 2026-09-04 | 1,293.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | 1,280.25 |
| 2026-09-18 | 1,303.50 |
| 2026-09-25 | 1,319.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 1,278.25 |
| 2026-10-09 | 1,292.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 1,261.25 |
| 2026-10-23 | 1,256.50 |
| 2026-10-30 | 1,253.50 |
This weekFunds are net long 206,936 contracts, the 93rd percentile over 15 yrs, from +124,900 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 5th-highest weekly reading in 15 yrs (unusual high). unusual high
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | 35,329 |
| 2025-10-28 | 118,489 |
| 2025-11-04 | 178,683 |
| 2025-11-10 | 194,443 |
| 2025-11-18 | 229,625 |
| 2025-11-25 | 214,289 |
| 2025-12-02 | 215,426 |
| 2025-12-09 | 180,338 |
| 2025-12-16 | 147,778 |
| 2025-12-23 | 110,403 |
| 2025-12-30 | 84,562 |
| 2026-01-06 | 57,717 |
| 2026-01-13 | 12,961 |
| 2026-01-20 | 10,060 |
| 2026-01-27 | 17,321 |
| 2026-02-03 | 28,832 |
| 2026-02-10 | 123,148 |
| 2026-02-17 | 163,611 |
| 2026-02-24 | 184,202 |
| 2026-03-03 | 198,902 |
| 2026-03-10 | 222,107 |
| 2026-03-17 | 201,997 |
| 2026-03-24 | 197,904 |
| 2026-03-31 | 213,407 |
| 2026-04-07 | 189,630 |
| 2026-04-14 | 175,151 |
| 2026-04-21 | 192,884 |
| 2026-04-28 | 185,282 |
| 2026-05-05 | 221,617 |
| 2026-05-12 | 214,815 |
| 2026-05-19 | 207,804 |
| 2026-05-26 | 189,552 |
| 2026-06-02 | 156,050 |
| 2026-06-09 | 90,756 |
| 2026-06-16 | 52,818 |
| 2026-06-23 | 36,679 |
| 2026-06-30 | 31,200 |
| 2026-07-07 | 68,679 |
| 2026-07-14 | 72,688 |
| 2026-07-21 | 124,900 |
| 2026-07-28 | 155,001 |
| 2026-08-04 | 125,466 |
| 2026-08-11 | 101,362 |
| 2026-08-18 | 151,662 |
| 2026-08-25 | 198,254 |
| 2026-09-01 | 241,183 |
| 2026-09-08 | 266,031 |
| 2026-09-15 | 244,710 |
| 2026-09-22 | 265,041 |
| 2026-09-29 | 241,164 |
| 2026-10-06 | 251,660 |
| 2026-10-13 | 237,491 |
| 2026-10-20 | 206,936 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
95% setting pods, ahead of the 5-year pace — conditions 57% Good+Excellent, 0.5pt in line with a normal year at this week.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Soybeans Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, ND, MO, KS, MI, AR). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 56.5 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 54.1 | 9.3 | 1.5 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 52.2 | 9.0 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 55.5 | 9.6 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 54.1 | 7.3 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 53.9 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 54.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 54.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 55.2 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 56.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 58.9 | 7.7 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 51.2 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 52.1 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 52.6 | 8.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 53.3 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 57.0 | 11.2 | 2.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 57.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 58.8 | 12.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 65.2 | 14.6 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 61.3 | 16.7 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-17 | 57.1 | 17.4 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
| 2026-03-24 | 58.2 | 18.8 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| 2026-03-31 | 59.0 | 21.7 | 9.5 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 51.2 | 19.2 | 9.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-04-14 | 45.8 | 19.7 | 10.6 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-21 | 39.7 | 21.1 | 11.9 | 1.1 |
| 2026-04-28 | 35.8 | 20.7 | 10.8 | 1.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 36.1 | 21.0 | 11.6 | 1.4 |
| 2026-05-12 | 40.6 | 21.3 | 12.4 | 2.3 |
| 2026-05-19 | 43.1 | 21.0 | 12.9 | 2.3 |
| 2026-05-26 | 46.3 | 21.1 | 11.8 | 2.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 52.3 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 1.3 |
| 2026-06-09 | 49.9 | 18.1 | 7.9 | 1.0 |
| 2026-06-16 | 46.5 | 18.0 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
| 2026-06-23 | 43.9 | 16.5 | 6.3 | 1.1 |
| 2026-06-30 | 39.3 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| 2026-07-07 | 39.9 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 2026-07-14 | 40.2 | 10.1 | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-21 | 43.5 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-07-28 | 51.3 | 14.0 | 3.1 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-04 | 55.1 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | 55.6 | 17.1 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 55.1 | 18.2 | 3.5 | 0.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 55.5 | 21.0 | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-01 | 56.6 | 22.1 | 4.5 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-08 | 63.2 | 22.4 | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-15 | 62.0 | 22.1 | 5.2 | 0.2 |
| 2026-09-22 | 57.7 | 21.4 | 5.6 | 0.3 |
| 2026-09-29 | 54.7 | 19.4 | 5.9 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.2 | 18.9 | 7.0 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-13 | 53.7 | 20.1 | 8.4 | 0.7 |
| 2026-10-20 | 56.7 | 19.3 | 9.3 | 1.8 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 7.7 | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| Jan 08 | 8.2 | 13.5 | 16.1 |
| Jan 15 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| Jan 22 | 8.8 | 11.7 | 10.3 |
| Jan 29 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| Feb 05 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 |
| Feb 12 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 8.3 |
| Feb 19 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 8.5 |
| Feb 26 | 14.6 | 13.7 | 8.5 |
| Mar 05 | 16.7 | 13.4 | 9.0 |
| Mar 12 | 17.5 | 13.4 | 8.8 |
| Mar 19 | 18.8 | 14.3 | 8.7 |
| Mar 26 | 21.7 | 13.1 | 6.0 |
| Apr 02 | 19.2 | 9.5 | 5.8 |
| Apr 09 | 19.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 |
| Apr 16 | 21.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 |
| Apr 23 | 20.7 | 6.6 | 6.7 |
| Apr 30 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| May 07 | 21.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 |
| May 14 | 21.0 | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| May 21 | 21.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 |
| May 28 | 18.6 | 4.1 | 2.5 |
| Jun 04 | 18.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| Jun 11 | 18.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| Jun 18 | 16.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| Jun 25 | 11.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Jul 02 | 10.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Jul 09 | 10.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Jul 16 | 10.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Jul 23 | 14.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Jul 30 | 14.6 | 0.4 | 2.3 |
| Aug 06 | 17.1 | 0.4 | 3.2 |
| Aug 13 | 18.2 | 0.3 | 3.3 |
| Aug 20 | 21.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 |
| Aug 27 | 22.1 | 0.3 | 5.2 |
| Sep 03 | 22.4 | 2.3 | 5.8 |
| Sep 10 | 22.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 |
| Sep 17 | 21.4 | 7.7 | 10.9 |
| Sep 24 | 19.4 | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| Oct 01 | 18.9 | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| Oct 08 | 20.1 | 12.0 | 15.6 |
| Oct 15 | 19.3 | 8.3 | 23.1 |
This weekChicago SRW Wheat settled at 615.50¢/bu, the 64th percentile over 15 yrs, +20% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 534.00 |
| 2025-11-07 | 527.75 |
| 2025-11-14 | 527.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 527.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 531.00 |
| 2025-12-05 | 537.50 |
| 2025-12-12 | 534.50 |
| 2025-12-19 | 509.75 |
| 2025-12-26 | 519.00 |
| 2026-01-02 | 506.50 |
| 2026-01-09 | 517.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 518.00 |
| 2026-01-23 | 529.50 |
| 2026-01-30 | 538.00 |
| 2026-02-06 | 529.75 |
| 2026-02-13 | 548.75 |
| 2026-02-20 | 573.50 |
| 2026-02-27 | 591.25 |
| 2026-03-06 | 611.25 |
| 2026-03-13 | 618.50 |
| 2026-03-20 | 595.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 605.00 |
| 2026-04-03 | 598.25 |
| 2026-04-10 | 571.00 |
| 2026-04-17 | 591.25 |
| 2026-04-24 | 608.25 |
| 2026-05-01 | 624.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 607.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | 635.75 |
| 2026-05-22 | 646.25 |
| 2026-05-29 | 610.50 |
| 2026-06-05 | 580.00 |
| 2026-06-12 | 584.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 605.75 |
| 2026-06-26 | 578.25 |
| 2026-07-03 | 590.50 |
| 2026-07-10 | 632.00 |
| 2026-07-17 | 682.75 |
| 2026-07-24 | 678.00 |
| 2026-07-31 | 639.25 |
| 2026-08-07 | 639.75 |
| 2026-08-14 | 674.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | 681.50 |
| 2026-08-28 | 767.00 |
| 2026-09-04 | 716.00 |
| 2026-09-11 | 707.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | 714.25 |
| 2026-09-25 | 703.25 |
| 2026-10-02 | 683.00 |
| 2026-10-09 | 671.00 |
| 2026-10-16 | 660.50 |
| 2026-10-23 | 625.00 |
| 2026-10-30 | 615.50 |
This weekFunds are net short 51,134 contracts, the 40th percentile over 15 yrs, from -19,349 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 95th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | -108,825 |
| 2025-10-28 | -75,133 |
| 2025-11-04 | -70,613 |
| 2025-11-10 | -58,761 |
| 2025-11-18 | -48,691 |
| 2025-11-25 | -53,746 |
| 2025-12-02 | -43,841 |
| 2025-12-09 | -46,069 |
| 2025-12-16 | -66,918 |
| 2025-12-23 | -91,665 |
| 2025-12-30 | -94,626 |
| 2026-01-06 | -107,165 |
| 2026-01-13 | -106,229 |
| 2026-01-20 | -110,700 |
| 2026-01-27 | -94,743 |
| 2026-02-03 | -81,755 |
| 2026-02-10 | -85,655 |
| 2026-02-17 | -68,037 |
| 2026-02-24 | -17,297 |
| 2026-03-03 | -25,800 |
| 2026-03-10 | -22,345 |
| 2026-03-17 | -12,702 |
| 2026-03-24 | -2,234 |
| 2026-03-31 | 8,641 |
| 2026-04-07 | -5,633 |
| 2026-04-14 | -7,266 |
| 2026-04-21 | -10,717 |
| 2026-04-28 | 10,664 |
| 2026-05-05 | -9,903 |
| 2026-05-12 | -19,023 |
| 2026-05-19 | -4,799 |
| 2026-05-26 | -18,706 |
| 2026-06-02 | -57,871 |
| 2026-06-09 | -79,407 |
| 2026-06-16 | -69,531 |
| 2026-06-23 | -71,206 |
| 2026-06-30 | -69,030 |
| 2026-07-07 | -62,325 |
| 2026-07-14 | -36,798 |
| 2026-07-21 | -19,349 |
| 2026-07-28 | -6,880 |
| 2026-08-04 | -23,786 |
| 2026-08-11 | -31,401 |
| 2026-08-18 | -26,485 |
| 2026-08-25 | -14,171 |
| 2026-09-01 | 14,654 |
| 2026-09-08 | 4,262 |
| 2026-09-15 | -4,706 |
| 2026-09-22 | -13,144 |
| 2026-09-29 | -21,670 |
| 2026-10-06 | -29,543 |
| 2026-10-13 | -33,038 |
| 2026-10-20 | -51,134 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
This weekKC HRW Wheat settled at 658.50¢/bu, the 66th percentile over 15 yrs, +31% on the year. normal
| Date | ¢/bu |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-31 | 524.50 |
| 2025-11-07 | 519.25 |
| 2025-11-14 | 515.25 |
| 2025-11-21 | 511.00 |
| 2025-11-28 | 517.75 |
| 2025-12-05 | 523.25 |
| 2025-12-12 | 498.75 |
| 2025-12-19 | 515.25 |
| 2025-12-26 | 533.50 |
| 2026-01-02 | 515.00 |
| 2026-01-09 | 530.25 |
| 2026-01-16 | 527.25 |
| 2026-01-23 | 540.75 |
| 2026-01-30 | 544.75 |
| 2026-02-06 | 531.25 |
| 2026-02-13 | 542.50 |
| 2026-02-20 | 572.25 |
| 2026-02-27 | 572.75 |
| 2026-03-06 | 611.50 |
| 2026-03-13 | 618.75 |
| 2026-03-20 | 606.25 |
| 2026-03-27 | 632.75 |
| 2026-04-03 | 615.75 |
| 2026-04-10 | 590.75 |
| 2026-04-17 | 636.75 |
| 2026-04-24 | 659.00 |
| 2026-05-01 | 682.50 |
| 2026-05-08 | 672.50 |
| 2026-05-15 | 688.00 |
| 2026-05-22 | 682.00 |
| 2026-05-29 | 649.75 |
| 2026-06-05 | 620.75 |
| 2026-06-12 | 634.50 |
| 2026-06-19 | 644.00 |
| 2026-06-26 | 611.00 |
| 2026-07-03 | 627.00 |
| 2026-07-10 | 662.50 |
| 2026-07-17 | 732.25 |
| 2026-07-24 | 745.25 |
| 2026-07-31 | 707.50 |
| 2026-08-07 | 714.00 |
| 2026-08-14 | 754.25 |
| 2026-08-21 | 756.25 |
| 2026-08-28 | 827.75 |
| 2026-09-04 | 786.75 |
| 2026-09-11 | 784.00 |
| 2026-09-18 | 783.75 |
| 2026-09-25 | 762.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 735.25 |
| 2026-10-09 | 719.25 |
| 2026-10-16 | 704.00 |
| 2026-10-23 | 664.50 |
| 2026-10-30 | 658.50 |
This weekFunds are net long 6,395 contracts, the 49th percentile over 15 yrs, from +29,944 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 98th percentile over 15 yrs (unusual high). normal
| Date | Net (contracts) |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 | -67,271 |
| 2025-10-28 | -51,708 |
| 2025-11-04 | -42,454 |
| 2025-11-10 | -33,217 |
| 2025-11-18 | -19,939 |
| 2025-11-25 | -22,064 |
| 2025-12-02 | -17,911 |
| 2025-12-09 | -17,011 |
| 2025-12-16 | -25,713 |
| 2025-12-23 | -24,749 |
| 2025-12-30 | -18,319 |
| 2026-01-06 | -15,655 |
| 2026-01-13 | -12,781 |
| 2026-01-20 | -13,018 |
| 2026-01-27 | -10,329 |
| 2026-02-03 | -8,844 |
| 2026-02-10 | -19,496 |
| 2026-02-17 | -10,609 |
| 2026-02-24 | 4,204 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,866 |
| 2026-03-10 | 9,425 |
| 2026-03-17 | 10,726 |
| 2026-03-24 | 9,705 |
| 2026-03-31 | 21,517 |
| 2026-04-07 | 15,608 |
| 2026-04-14 | 16,924 |
| 2026-04-21 | 28,009 |
| 2026-04-28 | 30,624 |
| 2026-05-05 | 37,869 |
| 2026-05-12 | 37,790 |
| 2026-05-19 | 30,075 |
| 2026-05-26 | 26,870 |
| 2026-06-02 | 13,477 |
| 2026-06-09 | -4,543 |
| 2026-06-16 | 7,620 |
| 2026-06-23 | -1,285 |
| 2026-06-30 | 6,910 |
| 2026-07-07 | 11,764 |
| 2026-07-14 | 17,494 |
| 2026-07-21 | 29,944 |
| 2026-07-28 | 33,233 |
| 2026-08-04 | 33,094 |
| 2026-08-11 | 27,662 |
| 2026-08-18 | 34,835 |
| 2026-08-25 | 44,062 |
| 2026-09-01 | 50,284 |
| 2026-09-08 | 51,248 |
| 2026-09-15 | 45,758 |
| 2026-09-22 | 41,743 |
| 2026-09-29 | 30,710 |
| 2026-10-06 | 24,040 |
| 2026-10-13 | 17,391 |
| 2026-10-20 | 6,395 |
How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.
Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →
% Very Poor + Poor from USDA NASS weekly Crop Progress. Values above 40% (dashed line) correlate with elevated abandonment risk for winter wheat and replant / yield-drag pressure for corn and soybeans. Current year shown in red; prior years muted.
Kansas plants 28% of US winter wheat but carries only 11% of the abandoned acres; TX and OK are 34% of the area and 71% of the losses. Cumulative acres across closed crop years since 1999, so one catastrophic year in a small state cannot distort the ranking. Much of the TX and OK gap is dual-purpose wheat grazed out by economic choice rather than lost to weather, so a belt-wide abandonment figure tracks a planting decision as much as crop stress — read it alongside the condition tiers above, not instead of them. Source: USDA NASS state planted and harvested acres.
| State | Planted share | Abandoned share | Median rate | Worst year | Worst rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | 17.9% | 44.9% | 54.3% | 2022 | 75.5% |
| OK | 16.5% | 26.3% | 34.1% | 2014 | 47.2% |
| KS | 27.9% | 11.1% | 6.8% | 2023 | 29.0% |
| CO | 7.3% | 4.6% | 11.6% | 2002 | 29.8% |
| SD | 4.0% | 3.2% | 11.2% | 2001 | 71.5% |
| MT | 6.2% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 2002 | 46.2% |
| MO | 2.5% | 1.8% | 15.6% | 2022 | 34.9% |
| NE | 4.6% | 1.8% | 7.9% | 2013 | 22.4% |
| AR | 1.5% | 1.1% | 19.1% | 2019 | 54.5% |
| WA | 5.6% | 0.8% | 2.8% | 1999 | 12.1% |
| IL | 2.4% | 0.7% | 4.8% | 2019 | 15.4% |
| OH | 2.3% | 0.6% | 5.8% | 2019 | 23.0% |
| IN | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.3% | 2025 | 25.0% |
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly fall planting progress. Pace relative to prior years signals early or delayed establishment entering winter.
USDA NASS weekly crop heading progress. Pace of heading relative to prior years reflects crop development speed and informs harvest timing expectations.
Average drought coverage across SRW Belt states (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO, KY). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 65.5 | 17.9 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 59.6 | 16.6 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 55.2 | 15.9 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 56.5 | 16.5 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 51.8 | 12.7 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 52.7 | 10.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 53.5 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 57.8 | 10.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 58.9 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 62.7 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 67.0 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 61.8 | 12.6 | 3.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 63.0 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 59.7 | 13.3 | 3.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 59.4 | 13.5 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 59.9 | 17.4 | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 57.1 | 17.4 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 57.2 | 18.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 65.1 | 18.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 53.2 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 43.6 | 8.7 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 44.5 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 52.1 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 39.0 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 38.2 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-21 | 29.8 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-28 | 23.6 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-05 | 23.0 | 10.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-12 | 25.6 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 0.0 |
| 2026-05-19 | 29.5 | 14.8 | 7.6 | 0.1 |
| 2026-05-26 | 27.8 | 11.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 32.8 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-09 | 30.8 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-16 | 20.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-23 | 18.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 10.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-07 | 11.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-14 | 9.4 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-21 | 10.3 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-07-28 | 16.5 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-04 | 19.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-11 | 18.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-18 | 17.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-08-25 | 17.0 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 20.3 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-08 | 36.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-15 | 32.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | 31.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | 37.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | 38.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 |
| 2026-10-13 | 42.7 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-10-20 | 47.6 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 0.3 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 14.6 |
| Jan 08 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Jan 15 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Jan 22 | 13.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Jan 29 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 05 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 12 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 19 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Feb 26 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| Mar 05 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Mar 12 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Mar 19 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Mar 26 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Apr 02 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Apr 09 | 6.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 |
| Apr 16 | 8.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Apr 23 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| Apr 30 | 10.7 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| May 07 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| May 14 | 14.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| May 21 | 11.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| May 28 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Jun 04 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 11 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 18 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jun 25 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 02 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Jul 09 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Jul 16 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Jul 23 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.6 |
| Jul 30 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 |
| Aug 06 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.3 |
| Aug 13 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.7 |
| Aug 20 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 4.0 |
| Aug 27 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 4.2 |
| Sep 03 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Sep 10 | 4.2 | 16.1 | 11.7 |
| Sep 17 | 4.3 | 17.7 | 18.7 |
| Sep 24 | 4.6 | 16.0 | 18.3 |
| Oct 01 | 6.0 | 19.6 | 8.9 |
| Oct 08 | 8.2 | 21.9 | 10.3 |
| Oct 15 | 7.9 | 15.2 | 14.8 |
Average drought coverage across HRW Belt states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE, SD). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-28 | 46.9 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 50.2 | 6.3 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 52.5 | 8.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 56.5 | 8.9 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 56.3 | 8.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 54.6 | 7.9 | 1.6 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-09 | 55.4 | 7.8 | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 54.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 60.1 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-30 | 64.6 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 2026-01-06 | 68.5 | 12.3 | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | 63.1 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-20 | 64.3 | 14.5 | 5.1 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-27 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 69.4 | 16.9 | 5.3 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-10 | 73.8 | 19.3 | 6.4 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-17 | 74.4 | 20.6 | 6.7 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 76.6 | 23.4 | 7.5 | 0.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 80.5 | 29.9 | 8.1 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | 80.3 | 30.1 | 9.1 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | 83.5 | 36.7 | 10.5 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | 87.3 | 47.5 | 15.6 | 1.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 92.1 | 56.2 | 27.1 | 4.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 92.4 | 54.8 | 24.2 | 4.0 |
| 2026-04-14 | 88.7 | 58.7 | 26.1 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-21 | 87.7 | 57.7 | 28.9 | 3.9 |
| 2026-04-28 | 86.7 | 57.2 | 29.8 | 3.5 |
| 2026-05-05 | 86.8 | 56.2 | 30.6 | 3.8 |
| 2026-05-12 | 88.3 | 55.4 | 30.4 | 4.8 |
| 2026-05-19 | 89.2 | 53.9 | 30.3 | 3.8 |
| 2026-05-26 | 89.2 | 53.1 | 29.1 | 4.0 |
| 2026-06-02 | 85.7 | 47.9 | 25.8 | 4.7 |
| 2026-06-09 | 81.8 | 44.0 | 22.1 | 3.8 |
| 2026-06-16 | 79.2 | 43.7 | 22.0 | 3.9 |
| 2026-06-23 | 76.0 | 43.1 | 21.2 | 4.0 |
| 2026-06-30 | 71.4 | 36.6 | 15.0 | 2.6 |
| 2026-07-07 | 71.0 | 35.7 | 15.4 | 2.6 |
| 2026-07-14 | 69.1 | 34.8 | 15.1 | 2.8 |
| 2026-07-21 | 69.9 | 35.4 | 15.9 | 2.9 |
| 2026-07-28 | 72.4 | 37.9 | 16.5 | 3.1 |
| 2026-08-04 | 79.4 | 37.2 | 16.4 | 3.2 |
| 2026-08-11 | 83.3 | 40.8 | 19.3 | 3.3 |
| 2026-08-18 | 86.5 | 42.1 | 19.6 | 4.2 |
| 2026-08-25 | 87.9 | 46.4 | 20.4 | 5.0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 88.8 | 47.4 | 19.0 | 4.8 |
| 2026-09-08 | 92.5 | 49.2 | 21.8 | 5.2 |
| 2026-09-15 | 92.8 | 49.3 | 21.5 | 6.1 |
| 2026-09-22 | 88.8 | 48.8 | 19.8 | 6.6 |
| 2026-09-29 | 86.0 | 45.8 | 20.6 | 6.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | 80.1 | 38.4 | 15.9 | 4.4 |
| 2026-10-13 | 80.0 | 37.3 | 15.3 | 4.5 |
| 2026-10-20 | 78.2 | 32.0 | 10.6 | 2.4 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 12.3 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
| Jan 08 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 9.2 |
| Jan 15 | 14.5 | 20.1 | 8.6 |
| Jan 22 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 6.5 |
| Jan 29 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 6.1 |
| Feb 05 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 5.3 |
| Feb 12 | 20.6 | 19.6 | 4.5 |
| Feb 19 | 23.4 | 20.3 | 4.5 |
| Feb 26 | 29.9 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 05 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 12 | 36.7 | 25.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar 19 | 47.5 | 29.2 | 4.0 |
| Mar 26 | 56.2 | 28.8 | 3.0 |
| Apr 02 | 54.8 | 23.2 | 2.9 |
| Apr 09 | 58.7 | 24.1 | 2.9 |
| Apr 16 | 57.7 | 22.5 | 4.4 |
| Apr 23 | 57.3 | 19.1 | 7.0 |
| Apr 30 | 56.2 | 19.4 | 9.1 |
| May 07 | 55.4 | 21.6 | 8.2 |
| May 14 | 53.9 | 19.9 | 8.8 |
| May 21 | 53.1 | 17.5 | 7.6 |
| May 28 | 47.9 | 15.0 | 7.9 |
| Jun 04 | 43.9 | 12.5 | 5.0 |
| Jun 11 | 43.7 | 11.8 | 3.9 |
| Jun 18 | 43.2 | 12.0 | 3.7 |
| Jun 25 | 36.6 | 10.4 | 3.1 |
| Jul 02 | 35.7 | 8.8 | 3.4 |
| Jul 09 | 34.8 | 9.4 | 3.9 |
| Jul 16 | 35.4 | 9.0 | 4.0 |
| Jul 23 | 37.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 |
| Jul 30 | 37.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 |
| Aug 06 | 40.8 | 9.2 | 7.0 |
| Aug 13 | 42.1 | 9.5 | 7.2 |
| Aug 20 | 46.4 | 9.3 | 8.5 |
| Aug 27 | 47.4 | 8.8 | 11.5 |
| Sep 03 | 49.2 | 8.7 | 10.2 |
| Sep 10 | 49.3 | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| Sep 17 | 48.8 | 8.0 | 13.8 |
| Sep 24 | 45.8 | 8.2 | 13.5 |
| Oct 01 | 38.4 | 8.0 | 15.6 |
| Oct 08 | 37.3 | 5.3 | 23.6 |
| Oct 15 | 32.0 | 5.8 | 30.9 |
Source: USDA WASDE · WASDE #676
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -16.4 | 253.3 | -197.3 |
| Jan 13 | -81.8 | 292.2 | -230.7 |
| Jan 20 | -81.3 | 311.7 | -260.5 |
| Jan 27 | -72.0 | 350.7 | -265.3 |
| Feb 03 | -68.8 | 364.2 | -280.2 |
| Feb 10 | -48.2 | 332.4 | -297.7 |
| Feb 17 | -27.4 | 353.5 | -314.3 |
| Feb 24 | -13.9 | 337.5 | -340.7 |
| Mar 03 | 53.0 | 219.8 | -295.3 |
| Mar 10 | 193.3 | 146.5 | -296.8 |
| Mar 17 | 228.8 | 107.3 | -255.9 |
| Mar 24 | 284.5 | 74.6 | -243.0 |
| Mar 31 | 268.0 | 56.8 | -251.7 |
| Apr 07 | 218.6 | 53.6 | -259.6 |
| Apr 14 | 159.5 | 124.6 | -263.6 |
| Apr 21 | 184.4 | 112.8 | -279.6 |
| Apr 28 | 264.1 | 71.3 | -238.5 |
| May 05 | 343.9 | 13.9 | -218.0 |
| May 12 | 299.5 | -85.0 | -102.5 |
| May 19 | 293.4 | -103.2 | -71.2 |
| May 26 | 205.5 | -100.8 | -121.2 |
| Jun 02 | 115.1 | -154.0 | -133.5 |
| Jun 09 | -5.3 | -164.0 | -212.7 |
| Jun 16 | -46.4 | -184.8 | -212.3 |
| Jun 23 | -69.7 | -182.3 | -191.5 |
| Jun 30 | -46.2 | -206.5 | -277.7 |
| Jul 07 | 12.7 | -203.9 | -336.5 |
| Jul 14 | 43.4 | -174.8 | -354.0 |
| Jul 21 | 92.9 | -177.4 | -343.4 |
| Jul 28 | 168.4 | -181.2 | -318.5 |
| Aug 04 | 181.9 | -173.8 | -295.1 |
| Aug 11 | 166.8 | -176.1 | -242.5 |
| Aug 18 | 250.5 | -144.7 | -249.0 |
| Aug 25 | 376.5 | -110.7 | -257.9 |
| Sep 01 | 431.1 | -91.5 | -241.9 |
| Sep 08 | 425.2 | -99.9 | -176.2 |
| Sep 15 | 426.8 | -80.1 | -132.1 |
| Sep 22 | 414.4 | -94.7 | -134.8 |
| Sep 29 | 377.9 | -135.3 | -130.7 |
| Oct 06 | 317.4 | -142.0 | -67.7 |
| Oct 13 | 230.9 | -191.1 | -23.7 |
| Oct 20 | 146.3 | -161.0 | -87.0 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -7.2 | -217.5 | 198.4 |
| Jan 13 | 78.8 | -244.9 | 217.7 |
| Jan 20 | 90.3 | -286.6 | 264.1 |
| Jan 27 | 71.0 | -324.7 | 262.9 |
| Feb 03 | 73.9 | -340.7 | 267.7 |
| Feb 10 | 62.5 | -304.7 | 272.1 |
| Feb 17 | 56.9 | -331.9 | 290.4 |
| Feb 24 | 39.8 | -312.4 | 306.8 |
| Mar 03 | -32.3 | -227.6 | 269.9 |
| Mar 10 | -177.1 | -160.9 | 261.0 |
| Mar 17 | -217.9 | -119.5 | 213.9 |
| Mar 24 | -277.3 | -73.4 | 197.1 |
| Mar 31 | -237.1 | -46.9 | 213.7 |
| Apr 07 | -188.9 | -54.4 | 219.9 |
| Apr 14 | -147.2 | -128.4 | 224.9 |
| Apr 21 | -158.9 | -96.7 | 242.6 |
| Apr 28 | -237.7 | -75.8 | 199.7 |
| May 05 | -325.8 | -10.1 | 184.0 |
| May 12 | -216.8 | 85.2 | 76.0 |
| May 19 | -250.7 | 97.7 | 57.5 |
| May 26 | -181.9 | 115.7 | 97.4 |
| Jun 02 | -47.9 | 170.5 | 113.6 |
| Jun 09 | 34.1 | 171.1 | 193.5 |
| Jun 16 | 53.6 | 187.1 | 180.1 |
| Jun 23 | 83.7 | 183.1 | 158.3 |
| Jun 30 | 37.8 | 214.1 | 239.0 |
| Jul 07 | -5.8 | 207.6 | 289.2 |
| Jul 14 | -29.6 | 190.1 | 305.7 |
| Jul 21 | -81.7 | 199.6 | 298.3 |
| Jul 28 | -151.0 | 208.7 | 281.1 |
| Aug 04 | -150.1 | 198.0 | 266.8 |
| Aug 11 | -138.2 | 195.7 | 212.4 |
| Aug 18 | -204.7 | 163.7 | 225.2 |
| Aug 25 | -346.9 | 123.6 | 236.9 |
| Sep 01 | -428.6 | 110.6 | 201.1 |
| Sep 08 | -417.9 | 123.9 | 141.5 |
| Sep 15 | -417.2 | 102.8 | 111.9 |
| Sep 22 | -405.4 | 116.7 | 113.2 |
| Sep 29 | -358.3 | 156.7 | 116.7 |
| Oct 06 | -317.3 | 167.5 | 72.7 |
| Oct 13 | -227.4 | 203.7 | 42.6 |
| Oct 20 | -147.9 | 162.1 | 101.9 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 220.5 | 367.3 | 162.4 |
| Jan 13 | 198.4 | 393.2 | 157.7 |
| Jan 20 | 206.4 | 415.6 | 155.3 |
| Jan 27 | 216.9 | 447.2 | 158.2 |
| Feb 03 | 214.9 | 447.9 | 162.2 |
| Feb 10 | 216.4 | 417.8 | 168.8 |
| Feb 17 | 214.2 | 428.0 | 174.8 |
| Feb 24 | 223.2 | 415.8 | 164.4 |
| Mar 03 | 247.5 | 311.6 | 174.4 |
| Mar 10 | 334.6 | 258.6 | 173.8 |
| Mar 17 | 344.2 | 240.2 | 177.1 |
| Mar 24 | 363.9 | 230.7 | 171.1 |
| Mar 31 | 354.4 | 213.5 | 174.1 |
| Apr 07 | 316.3 | 213.6 | 170.4 |
| Apr 14 | 301.8 | 250.3 | 158.5 |
| Apr 21 | 329.1 | 269.0 | 161.6 |
| Apr 28 | 379.3 | 254.2 | 170.2 |
| May 05 | 441.2 | 218.3 | 176.0 |
| May 12 | 420.7 | 173.1 | 202.1 |
| May 19 | 426.6 | 175.9 | 218.6 |
| May 26 | 368.1 | 174.1 | 208.0 |
| Jun 02 | 304.9 | 163.5 | 213.9 |
| Jun 09 | 277.4 | 169.1 | 204.2 |
| Jun 16 | 279.6 | 153.8 | 207.8 |
| Jun 23 | 293.4 | 165.7 | 218.9 |
| Jun 30 | 305.9 | 179.7 | 193.2 |
| Jul 07 | 306.5 | 168.1 | 153.8 |
| Jul 14 | 304.5 | 177.0 | 153.9 |
| Jul 21 | 320.4 | 182.2 | 152.2 |
| Jul 28 | 338.7 | 187.4 | 158.6 |
| Aug 04 | 329.0 | 192.4 | 159.8 |
| Aug 11 | 333.3 | 196.4 | 171.0 |
| Aug 18 | 376.0 | 225.1 | 184.4 |
| Aug 25 | 465.5 | 237.9 | 174.9 |
| Sep 01 | 493.1 | 248.2 | 181.5 |
| Sep 08 | 488.6 | 225.6 | 200.0 |
| Sep 15 | 484.9 | 215.6 | 208.5 |
| Sep 22 | 477.7 | 201.1 | 206.3 |
| Sep 29 | 438.9 | 177.9 | 195.4 |
| Oct 06 | 384.2 | 168.0 | 198.5 |
| Oct 13 | 321.3 | 155.7 | 198.5 |
| Oct 20 | 275.5 | 145.0 | 192.2 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 236.9 | 114.0 | 359.7 |
| Jan 13 | 280.2 | 100.9 | 388.4 |
| Jan 20 | 287.8 | 103.9 | 415.8 |
| Jan 27 | 288.9 | 96.5 | 423.5 |
| Feb 03 | 283.7 | 83.7 | 442.4 |
| Feb 10 | 264.6 | 85.4 | 466.6 |
| Feb 17 | 241.6 | 74.5 | 489.2 |
| Feb 24 | 237.1 | 78.4 | 505.1 |
| Mar 03 | 194.5 | 91.9 | 469.7 |
| Mar 10 | 141.4 | 112.0 | 470.6 |
| Mar 17 | 115.4 | 133.0 | 433.0 |
| Mar 24 | 79.3 | 156.1 | 414.1 |
| Mar 31 | 86.4 | 156.8 | 425.9 |
| Apr 07 | 97.6 | 160.0 | 430.0 |
| Apr 14 | 142.4 | 125.7 | 422.0 |
| Apr 21 | 144.7 | 156.2 | 441.1 |
| Apr 28 | 115.2 | 182.9 | 408.8 |
| May 05 | 97.3 | 204.4 | 394.1 |
| May 12 | 121.2 | 258.1 | 304.7 |
| May 19 | 133.3 | 279.1 | 289.8 |
| May 26 | 162.6 | 274.9 | 329.1 |
| Jun 02 | 189.8 | 317.6 | 347.4 |
| Jun 09 | 282.7 | 333.1 | 416.9 |
| Jun 16 | 326.1 | 338.6 | 420.0 |
| Jun 23 | 363.1 | 348.0 | 410.3 |
| Jun 30 | 352.1 | 386.1 | 470.8 |
| Jul 07 | 293.8 | 372.0 | 490.3 |
| Jul 14 | 261.1 | 351.8 | 507.9 |
| Jul 21 | 227.5 | 359.6 | 495.6 |
| Jul 28 | 170.3 | 368.6 | 477.2 |
| Aug 04 | 147.0 | 366.1 | 454.9 |
| Aug 11 | 166.6 | 372.5 | 413.5 |
| Aug 18 | 125.5 | 369.7 | 433.4 |
| Aug 25 | 89.0 | 348.6 | 432.8 |
| Sep 01 | 62.0 | 339.7 | 423.4 |
| Sep 08 | 63.5 | 325.5 | 376.2 |
| Sep 15 | 58.0 | 295.6 | 340.6 |
| Sep 22 | 63.2 | 295.8 | 341.1 |
| Sep 29 | 61.1 | 313.3 | 326.1 |
| Oct 06 | 66.9 | 310.0 | 266.2 |
| Oct 13 | 90.5 | 346.7 | 222.2 |
| Oct 20 | 129.3 | 306.0 | 279.2 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 1,915.5 | 2,132.6 | 1,601.3 |
| Jan 13 | 2,035.7 | 2,372.0 | 1,713.9 |
| Jan 20 | 2,088.3 | 2,534.2 | 1,852.3 |
| Jan 27 | 2,092.6 | 2,513.6 | 1,958.2 |
| Feb 03 | 2,142.1 | 2,618.9 | 1,963.8 |
| Feb 10 | 2,158.2 | 2,602.5 | 1,996.0 |
| Feb 17 | 2,204.0 | 2,693.2 | 2,038.8 |
| Feb 24 | 1,995.9 | 2,360.3 | 2,053.9 |
| Mar 03 | 2,018.3 | 2,355.1 | 1,896.4 |
| Mar 10 | 2,219.5 | 2,368.6 | 1,914.6 |
| Mar 17 | 2,322.0 | 2,372.1 | 1,961.4 |
| Mar 24 | 2,395.8 | 2,346.1 | 1,999.1 |
| Mar 31 | 2,367.0 | 2,470.0 | 2,017.8 |
| Apr 07 | 2,350.2 | 2,415.7 | 2,056.5 |
| Apr 14 | 2,357.6 | 2,326.6 | 1,999.9 |
| Apr 21 | 2,380.7 | 2,317.3 | 1,966.2 |
| Apr 28 | 2,330.6 | 1,999.4 | 1,969.4 |
| May 05 | 2,515.6 | 2,020.8 | 1,805.7 |
| May 12 | 2,533.1 | 2,081.4 | 1,895.1 |
| May 19 | 2,562.3 | 2,153.5 | 1,973.8 |
| May 26 | 2,433.0 | 2,115.8 | 1,993.4 |
| Jun 02 | 2,454.8 | 2,125.8 | 1,963.8 |
| Jun 09 | 2,566.2 | 2,099.1 | 2,067.1 |
| Jun 16 | 2,661.9 | 2,078.6 | 2,057.5 |
| Jun 23 | 2,639.8 | 1,881.6 | 2,048.6 |
| Jun 30 | 2,300.0 | 1,886.3 | 1,922.4 |
| Jul 07 | 2,344.9 | 1,945.0 | 1,973.5 |
| Jul 14 | 2,326.2 | 1,917.1 | 2,038.2 |
| Jul 21 | 2,425.9 | 1,968.7 | 2,074.7 |
| Jul 28 | 2,364.9 | 2,007.6 | 2,106.7 |
| Aug 04 | 2,332.9 | 2,105.1 | 2,024.4 |
| Aug 11 | 2,268.7 | 2,115.2 | 2,016.8 |
| Aug 18 | 2,395.5 | 2,088.3 | 2,039.7 |
| Aug 25 | 2,410.7 | 1,848.3 | 2,005.0 |
| Sep 01 | 2,594.3 | 1,895.2 | 1,777.1 |
| Sep 08 | 2,596.9 | 1,931.2 | 1,702.7 |
| Sep 15 | 2,662.0 | 2,015.9 | 1,712.7 |
| Sep 22 | 2,676.0 | 2,040.3 | 1,797.0 |
| Sep 29 | 2,577.2 | 1,983.4 | 1,832.5 |
| Oct 06 | 2,558.8 | 2,052.2 | 1,902.9 |
| Oct 13 | 2,519.7 | 2,139.7 | 1,908.6 |
| Oct 20 | 2,539.3 | 2,139.9 | 1,991.3 |
Nearby futures price (ZC=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 57.7 | -28.6 | -11.6 |
| Jan 13 | 13.0 | 34.8 | -31.2 |
| Jan 20 | 10.1 | 40.3 | -76.8 |
| Jan 27 | 17.3 | 56.5 | -91.8 |
| Feb 03 | 28.8 | 57.0 | -108.2 |
| Feb 10 | 123.1 | 28.5 | -130.3 |
| Feb 17 | 163.6 | 16.5 | -134.5 |
| Feb 24 | 184.2 | 8.2 | -136.7 |
| Mar 03 | 198.9 | -35.5 | -160.7 |
| Mar 10 | 222.1 | -15.5 | -172.0 |
| Mar 17 | 202.0 | -22.0 | -155.1 |
| Mar 24 | 197.9 | -43.0 | -148.3 |
| Mar 31 | 213.4 | -29.8 | -134.8 |
| Apr 07 | 189.6 | -50.4 | -138.3 |
| Apr 14 | 175.2 | 26.2 | -139.3 |
| Apr 21 | 192.9 | 31.1 | -167.9 |
| Apr 28 | 185.3 | 38.2 | -149.0 |
| May 05 | 221.6 | 21.9 | -149.2 |
| May 12 | 214.8 | 38.4 | -41.5 |
| May 19 | 207.8 | 12.7 | -42.7 |
| May 26 | 189.6 | 36.7 | -26.4 |
| Jun 02 | 156.1 | 8.6 | -14.2 |
| Jun 09 | 90.8 | 25.6 | -59.7 |
| Jun 16 | 52.8 | 59.2 | -75.9 |
| Jun 23 | 36.7 | 23.4 | -106.0 |
| Jun 30 | 31.2 | 0.4 | -129.7 |
| Jul 07 | 68.7 | -6.2 | -140.9 |
| Jul 14 | 72.7 | -32.3 | -172.6 |
| Jul 21 | 124.9 | -10.9 | -185.8 |
| Jul 28 | 155.0 | -36.3 | -163.7 |
| Aug 04 | 125.5 | -65.9 | -178.6 |
| Aug 11 | 101.4 | -35.3 | -169.0 |
| Aug 18 | 151.7 | 0.0 | -174.4 |
| Aug 25 | 198.3 | 20.8 | -182.8 |
| Sep 01 | 241.2 | 12.0 | -176.6 |
| Sep 08 | 266.0 | -14.7 | -154.1 |
| Sep 15 | 244.7 | 2.3 | -130.6 |
| Sep 22 | 265.0 | -29.3 | -122.4 |
| Sep 29 | 241.2 | -38.7 | -75.0 |
| Oct 06 | 251.7 | -0.4 | -34.9 |
| Oct 13 | 237.5 | -0.4 | -21.8 |
| Oct 20 | 206.9 | 35.3 | -40.3 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -82.2 | 61.5 | 31.8 |
| Jan 13 | -31.8 | 0.5 | 51.7 |
| Jan 20 | -26.0 | -5.2 | 112.4 |
| Jan 27 | -33.9 | -16.7 | 122.8 |
| Feb 03 | -40.1 | -23.2 | 152.0 |
| Feb 10 | -116.6 | 9.3 | 167.7 |
| Feb 17 | -153.8 | 24.5 | 166.5 |
| Feb 24 | -166.0 | 37.8 | 166.6 |
| Mar 03 | -176.4 | 67.2 | 195.6 |
| Mar 10 | -190.7 | 43.7 | 205.5 |
| Mar 17 | -177.0 | 43.3 | 185.2 |
| Mar 24 | -164.3 | 54.8 | 173.5 |
| Mar 31 | -179.4 | 33.0 | 155.2 |
| Apr 07 | -156.9 | 57.0 | 162.1 |
| Apr 14 | -151.3 | -25.1 | 164.4 |
| Apr 21 | -169.0 | -28.7 | 190.6 |
| Apr 28 | -163.7 | -37.3 | 166.9 |
| May 05 | -206.0 | -27.2 | 165.0 |
| May 12 | -191.4 | -55.8 | 71.0 |
| May 19 | -180.1 | -31.5 | 80.0 |
| May 26 | -171.1 | -55.2 | 58.8 |
| Jun 02 | -139.4 | -20.3 | 48.4 |
| Jun 09 | -70.4 | -44.0 | 91.9 |
| Jun 16 | -34.8 | -72.1 | 102.6 |
| Jun 23 | -13.1 | -32.9 | 125.3 |
| Jun 30 | -8.0 | -2.8 | 147.4 |
| Jul 07 | -57.2 | 5.2 | 156.4 |
| Jul 14 | -70.5 | 34.9 | 193.7 |
| Jul 21 | -127.6 | 13.5 | 210.5 |
| Jul 28 | -162.5 | 38.1 | 175.7 |
| Aug 04 | -123.3 | 67.0 | 199.2 |
| Aug 11 | -102.0 | 36.7 | 190.5 |
| Aug 18 | -146.5 | 4.8 | 196.7 |
| Aug 25 | -181.9 | -6.4 | 205.3 |
| Sep 01 | -227.5 | -1.7 | 193.3 |
| Sep 08 | -252.5 | 20.6 | 179.1 |
| Sep 15 | -231.8 | 0.1 | 165.4 |
| Sep 22 | -254.2 | 35.3 | 152.6 |
| Sep 29 | -225.1 | 41.0 | 109.6 |
| Oct 06 | -243.2 | 1.2 | 84.1 |
| Oct 13 | -223.3 | 2.9 | 76.0 |
| Oct 20 | -188.7 | -38.9 | 92.3 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 121.6 | 107.2 | 69.8 |
| Jan 13 | 106.9 | 125.3 | 64.4 |
| Jan 20 | 99.1 | 130.2 | 53.8 |
| Jan 27 | 106.2 | 135.0 | 48.0 |
| Feb 03 | 121.6 | 130.3 | 42.5 |
| Feb 10 | 166.9 | 118.2 | 44.4 |
| Feb 17 | 200.8 | 112.9 | 49.0 |
| Feb 24 | 217.5 | 110.1 | 51.6 |
| Mar 03 | 239.4 | 93.9 | 48.2 |
| Mar 10 | 255.1 | 95.3 | 52.5 |
| Mar 17 | 235.2 | 90.5 | 56.3 |
| Mar 24 | 226.9 | 82.3 | 56.2 |
| Mar 31 | 239.0 | 81.7 | 58.7 |
| Apr 07 | 224.7 | 76.4 | 57.4 |
| Apr 14 | 207.4 | 108.1 | 54.1 |
| Apr 21 | 217.6 | 120.0 | 45.1 |
| Apr 28 | 207.4 | 117.6 | 47.2 |
| May 05 | 248.9 | 109.6 | 52.0 |
| May 12 | 241.9 | 123.2 | 79.6 |
| May 19 | 239.0 | 110.9 | 69.3 |
| May 26 | 231.0 | 125.2 | 73.1 |
| Jun 02 | 218.4 | 115.6 | 80.9 |
| Jun 09 | 173.0 | 123.6 | 72.5 |
| Jun 16 | 152.7 | 138.3 | 71.5 |
| Jun 23 | 136.8 | 124.5 | 65.9 |
| Jun 30 | 128.5 | 114.7 | 68.2 |
| Jul 07 | 148.0 | 111.8 | 61.3 |
| Jul 14 | 144.1 | 107.7 | 58.2 |
| Jul 21 | 172.9 | 108.0 | 57.4 |
| Jul 28 | 191.4 | 103.2 | 59.9 |
| Aug 04 | 172.2 | 94.8 | 47.7 |
| Aug 11 | 164.5 | 97.2 | 48.7 |
| Aug 18 | 193.8 | 95.7 | 52.3 |
| Aug 25 | 235.6 | 103.8 | 46.9 |
| Sep 01 | 273.2 | 101.9 | 48.3 |
| Sep 08 | 299.5 | 89.3 | 47.8 |
| Sep 15 | 282.3 | 99.7 | 45.6 |
| Sep 22 | 297.8 | 90.1 | 49.2 |
| Sep 29 | 276.1 | 92.9 | 60.7 |
| Oct 06 | 279.1 | 111.9 | 76.9 |
| Oct 13 | 272.9 | 114.9 | 90.1 |
| Oct 20 | 245.7 | 123.6 | 93.6 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 63.9 | 135.8 | 81.4 |
| Jan 13 | 93.9 | 90.4 | 95.6 |
| Jan 20 | 89.0 | 89.9 | 130.6 |
| Jan 27 | 88.8 | 78.5 | 139.8 |
| Feb 03 | 92.7 | 73.2 | 150.8 |
| Feb 10 | 43.8 | 89.7 | 174.7 |
| Feb 17 | 37.2 | 96.4 | 183.5 |
| Feb 24 | 33.3 | 101.9 | 188.3 |
| Mar 03 | 40.5 | 129.4 | 208.9 |
| Mar 10 | 33.0 | 110.9 | 224.5 |
| Mar 17 | 33.2 | 112.5 | 211.4 |
| Mar 24 | 28.9 | 125.2 | 204.5 |
| Mar 31 | 25.6 | 111.6 | 193.5 |
| Apr 07 | 35.1 | 126.9 | 195.7 |
| Apr 14 | 32.3 | 81.9 | 193.4 |
| Apr 21 | 24.7 | 89.0 | 213.0 |
| Apr 28 | 22.1 | 79.4 | 196.3 |
| May 05 | 27.3 | 87.7 | 201.2 |
| May 12 | 27.0 | 84.8 | 121.0 |
| May 19 | 31.1 | 98.3 | 112.0 |
| May 26 | 41.5 | 88.5 | 99.5 |
| Jun 02 | 62.4 | 107.0 | 95.1 |
| Jun 09 | 82.3 | 98.0 | 132.2 |
| Jun 16 | 99.9 | 79.1 | 147.4 |
| Jun 23 | 100.1 | 101.1 | 171.8 |
| Jun 30 | 97.3 | 114.3 | 197.8 |
| Jul 07 | 79.3 | 118.1 | 202.2 |
| Jul 14 | 71.4 | 140.0 | 230.8 |
| Jul 21 | 48.0 | 118.9 | 243.1 |
| Jul 28 | 36.4 | 139.5 | 223.6 |
| Aug 04 | 46.7 | 160.7 | 226.3 |
| Aug 11 | 63.2 | 132.4 | 217.7 |
| Aug 18 | 42.2 | 95.7 | 226.8 |
| Aug 25 | 37.3 | 83.0 | 229.6 |
| Sep 01 | 32.0 | 89.9 | 224.9 |
| Sep 08 | 33.5 | 104.0 | 201.8 |
| Sep 15 | 37.6 | 97.4 | 176.2 |
| Sep 22 | 32.8 | 119.4 | 171.7 |
| Sep 29 | 35.0 | 131.6 | 135.6 |
| Oct 06 | 27.5 | 112.2 | 111.8 |
| Oct 13 | 35.4 | 115.3 | 111.9 |
| Oct 20 | 38.8 | 88.3 | 134.0 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 961.9 | 1,013.3 | 789.5 |
| Jan 13 | 1,018.8 | 1,051.7 | 833.6 |
| Jan 20 | 1,038.4 | 1,113.0 | 874.5 |
| Jan 27 | 1,047.7 | 1,083.5 | 931.4 |
| Feb 03 | 1,084.8 | 1,131.7 | 956.2 |
| Feb 10 | 1,207.2 | 1,131.9 | 991.4 |
| Feb 17 | 1,281.1 | 1,128.4 | 1,005.2 |
| Feb 24 | 1,190.5 | 997.8 | 1,037.6 |
| Mar 03 | 1,241.1 | 1,024.1 | 922.2 |
| Mar 10 | 1,306.2 | 1,014.0 | 927.9 |
| Mar 17 | 1,286.1 | 1,038.1 | 951.8 |
| Mar 24 | 1,255.1 | 1,044.0 | 995.0 |
| Mar 31 | 1,239.7 | 1,064.1 | 1,022.7 |
| Apr 07 | 1,263.3 | 1,128.1 | 1,054.8 |
| Apr 14 | 1,271.0 | 1,063.4 | 1,064.9 |
| Apr 21 | 1,256.9 | 1,069.6 | 1,126.8 |
| Apr 28 | 1,096.4 | 950.1 | 1,057.4 |
| May 05 | 1,193.0 | 986.9 | 911.2 |
| May 12 | 1,236.8 | 1,047.8 | 954.3 |
| May 19 | 1,288.1 | 1,066.9 | 966.1 |
| May 26 | 1,251.8 | 1,052.3 | 1,006.1 |
| Jun 02 | 1,293.1 | 1,073.5 | 1,007.5 |
| Jun 09 | 1,283.6 | 1,038.3 | 1,074.4 |
| Jun 16 | 1,305.5 | 1,040.6 | 1,056.6 |
| Jun 23 | 1,277.5 | 988.6 | 1,067.1 |
| Jun 30 | 1,082.0 | 1,024.3 | 937.4 |
| Jul 07 | 1,202.8 | 1,045.8 | 983.1 |
| Jul 14 | 1,231.2 | 1,115.8 | 1,043.9 |
| Jul 21 | 1,300.4 | 1,144.6 | 1,104.0 |
| Jul 28 | 1,239.4 | 1,069.4 | 1,095.4 |
| Aug 04 | 1,194.7 | 1,098.9 | 1,022.0 |
| Aug 11 | 1,203.2 | 1,107.7 | 1,042.6 |
| Aug 18 | 1,219.6 | 1,126.7 | 1,128.0 |
| Aug 25 | 1,192.7 | 1,056.6 | 1,098.8 |
| Sep 01 | 1,325.8 | 1,074.8 | 1,044.6 |
| Sep 08 | 1,378.2 | 1,085.7 | 1,056.6 |
| Sep 15 | 1,416.9 | 1,121.4 | 1,075.0 |
| Sep 22 | 1,428.9 | 1,211.4 | 1,100.0 |
| Sep 29 | 1,343.6 | 1,159.5 | 1,098.6 |
| Oct 06 | 1,379.1 | 1,168.2 | 1,136.5 |
| Oct 13 | 1,329.5 | 1,232.6 | 1,174.7 |
| Oct 20 | 1,367.3 | 1,203.3 | 1,276.0 |
Nearby futures price (ZS=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -107.2 | -88.6 | -60.3 |
| Jan 13 | -106.2 | -94.4 | -58.0 |
| Jan 20 | -110.7 | -91.8 | -68.6 |
| Jan 27 | -94.7 | -110.8 | -64.5 |
| Feb 03 | -81.8 | -90.4 | -64.8 |
| Feb 10 | -85.7 | -82.8 | -66.7 |
| Feb 17 | -68.0 | -61.6 | -55.7 |
| Feb 24 | -17.3 | -67.6 | -68.5 |
| Mar 03 | -25.8 | -82.4 | -56.3 |
| Mar 10 | -22.3 | -77.4 | -65.5 |
| Mar 17 | -12.7 | -80.7 | -78.9 |
| Mar 24 | -2.2 | -92.6 | -80.6 |
| Mar 31 | 8.6 | -112.0 | -92.1 |
| Apr 07 | -5.6 | -102.1 | -91.9 |
| Apr 14 | -7.3 | -96.4 | -86.6 |
| Apr 21 | -10.7 | -89.9 | -96.4 |
| Apr 28 | 10.7 | -121.4 | -76.2 |
| May 05 | -9.9 | -113.7 | -47.9 |
| May 12 | -19.0 | -126.9 | -42.4 |
| May 19 | -4.8 | -108.9 | -28.3 |
| May 26 | -18.7 | -101.2 | -24.6 |
| Jun 02 | -57.9 | -100.6 | -25.4 |
| Jun 09 | -79.4 | -94.0 | -31.7 |
| Jun 16 | -69.5 | -81.4 | -45.1 |
| Jun 23 | -71.2 | -64.7 | -52.7 |
| Jun 30 | -69.0 | -63.1 | -70.5 |
| Jul 07 | -62.3 | -55.6 | -74.0 |
| Jul 14 | -36.8 | -60.5 | -69.1 |
| Jul 21 | -19.3 | -52.0 | -75.9 |
| Jul 28 | -6.9 | -65.3 | -75.2 |
| Aug 04 | -23.8 | -80.8 | -77.6 |
| Aug 11 | -31.4 | -89.3 | -71.3 |
| Aug 18 | -26.5 | -98.1 | -73.3 |
| Aug 25 | -14.2 | -81.6 | -53.0 |
| Sep 01 | 14.7 | -81.9 | -56.2 |
| Sep 08 | 4.3 | -92.4 | -42.6 |
| Sep 15 | -4.7 | -85.8 | -29.4 |
| Sep 22 | -13.1 | -97.9 | -25.0 |
| Sep 29 | -21.7 | -99.2 | -26.5 |
| Oct 06 | -29.5 | -97.4 | -23.0 |
| Oct 13 | -33.0 | -111.7 | -29.4 |
| Oct 20 | -51.1 | -108.8 | -26.0 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 86.7 | 81.5 | 44.5 |
| Jan 13 | 85.8 | 84.5 | 47.1 |
| Jan 20 | 91.7 | 79.7 | 56.3 |
| Jan 27 | 79.5 | 98.1 | 52.8 |
| Feb 03 | 70.9 | 80.9 | 46.0 |
| Feb 10 | 74.3 | 73.2 | 45.3 |
| Feb 17 | 60.2 | 61.2 | 35.0 |
| Feb 24 | 20.8 | 73.6 | 50.6 |
| Mar 03 | 26.6 | 88.5 | 40.1 |
| Mar 10 | 27.6 | 86.4 | 48.6 |
| Mar 17 | 25.2 | 82.7 | 57.9 |
| Mar 24 | 19.4 | 88.9 | 60.6 |
| Mar 31 | 8.7 | 102.4 | 64.2 |
| Apr 07 | 19.9 | 94.8 | 62.4 |
| Apr 14 | 16.4 | 90.2 | 55.6 |
| Apr 21 | 23.3 | 90.3 | 66.3 |
| Apr 28 | -0.4 | 114.6 | 53.1 |
| May 05 | 11.0 | 107.5 | 35.3 |
| May 12 | 18.4 | 119.2 | 32.6 |
| May 19 | 3.8 | 105.8 | 21.6 |
| May 26 | 9.4 | 99.3 | 28.7 |
| Jun 02 | 44.5 | 99.1 | 25.4 |
| Jun 09 | 64.7 | 95.2 | 29.5 |
| Jun 16 | 60.0 | 89.8 | 38.0 |
| Jun 23 | 59.9 | 75.2 | 46.7 |
| Jun 30 | 65.1 | 76.6 | 53.3 |
| Jul 07 | 57.2 | 71.8 | 54.0 |
| Jul 14 | 24.4 | 74.9 | 50.7 |
| Jul 21 | 19.1 | 65.4 | 55.4 |
| Jul 28 | 7.1 | 74.7 | 54.7 |
| Aug 04 | 19.7 | 84.0 | 57.3 |
| Aug 11 | 27.6 | 90.6 | 53.5 |
| Aug 18 | 20.1 | 94.1 | 51.6 |
| Aug 25 | 11.6 | 78.6 | 38.2 |
| Sep 01 | -20.2 | 72.4 | 42.8 |
| Sep 08 | -9.8 | 83.1 | 39.2 |
| Sep 15 | -1.4 | 75.2 | 27.4 |
| Sep 22 | 7.3 | 83.0 | 23.5 |
| Sep 29 | 18.5 | 77.7 | 22.0 |
| Oct 06 | 22.8 | 75.0 | 20.8 |
| Oct 13 | 26.5 | 87.3 | 25.9 |
| Oct 20 | 45.6 | 83.7 | 22.2 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 92.0 | 86.4 | 69.8 |
| Jan 13 | 91.3 | 85.1 | 70.3 |
| Jan 20 | 87.5 | 83.2 | 73.5 |
| Jan 27 | 87.7 | 77.0 | 71.2 |
| Feb 03 | 88.2 | 74.7 | 73.1 |
| Feb 10 | 88.9 | 76.3 | 75.1 |
| Feb 17 | 85.5 | 70.8 | 79.3 |
| Feb 24 | 104.8 | 70.5 | 80.9 |
| Mar 03 | 94.1 | 77.3 | 85.0 |
| Mar 10 | 96.0 | 77.9 | 89.3 |
| Mar 17 | 100.8 | 75.0 | 77.4 |
| Mar 24 | 109.7 | 73.8 | 80.7 |
| Mar 31 | 117.4 | 69.5 | 78.0 |
| Apr 07 | 109.4 | 71.7 | 80.2 |
| Apr 14 | 102.3 | 69.4 | 77.9 |
| Apr 21 | 95.2 | 75.9 | 76.5 |
| Apr 28 | 106.2 | 72.3 | 79.2 |
| May 05 | 99.5 | 77.4 | 78.4 |
| May 12 | 100.8 | 80.2 | 77.8 |
| May 19 | 110.7 | 83.8 | 83.4 |
| May 26 | 107.9 | 75.4 | 83.8 |
| Jun 02 | 81.9 | 75.1 | 81.7 |
| Jun 09 | 65.0 | 72.5 | 79.0 |
| Jun 16 | 68.6 | 71.4 | 62.8 |
| Jun 23 | 66.8 | 71.9 | 58.7 |
| Jun 30 | 68.1 | 78.9 | 62.5 |
| Jul 07 | 72.7 | 83.8 | 68.4 |
| Jul 14 | 76.0 | 84.8 | 70.0 |
| Jul 21 | 74.1 | 92.9 | 68.5 |
| Jul 28 | 83.7 | 89.4 | 71.6 |
| Aug 04 | 78.2 | 90.9 | 75.0 |
| Aug 11 | 76.2 | 92.0 | 73.4 |
| Aug 18 | 76.8 | 86.4 | 74.9 |
| Aug 25 | 86.6 | 95.4 | 83.3 |
| Sep 01 | 107.3 | 92.5 | 90.9 |
| Sep 08 | 98.4 | 92.7 | 90.6 |
| Sep 15 | 93.5 | 94.4 | 83.9 |
| Sep 22 | 86.0 | 97.0 | 81.2 |
| Sep 29 | 81.7 | 95.6 | 79.9 |
| Oct 06 | 84.1 | 97.0 | 77.5 |
| Oct 13 | 85.8 | 104.7 | 68.1 |
| Oct 20 | 84.0 | 104.7 | 70.5 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 199.1 | 175.0 | 130.1 |
| Jan 13 | 197.5 | 179.5 | 128.3 |
| Jan 20 | 198.2 | 175.0 | 142.1 |
| Jan 27 | 182.5 | 187.8 | 135.8 |
| Feb 03 | 170.0 | 165.1 | 138.0 |
| Feb 10 | 174.6 | 159.1 | 141.9 |
| Feb 17 | 153.5 | 132.3 | 135.0 |
| Feb 24 | 122.1 | 138.1 | 149.4 |
| Mar 03 | 119.9 | 159.7 | 141.3 |
| Mar 10 | 118.4 | 155.4 | 154.8 |
| Mar 17 | 113.5 | 155.6 | 156.3 |
| Mar 24 | 111.9 | 166.3 | 161.3 |
| Mar 31 | 108.7 | 181.6 | 170.1 |
| Apr 07 | 115.0 | 173.8 | 172.2 |
| Apr 14 | 109.6 | 165.9 | 164.5 |
| Apr 21 | 105.9 | 165.9 | 172.9 |
| Apr 28 | 95.5 | 193.8 | 155.3 |
| May 05 | 109.4 | 191.1 | 126.2 |
| May 12 | 119.8 | 207.1 | 120.1 |
| May 19 | 115.5 | 192.7 | 111.7 |
| May 26 | 126.6 | 176.6 | 108.4 |
| Jun 02 | 139.7 | 175.6 | 107.1 |
| Jun 09 | 144.4 | 166.5 | 110.7 |
| Jun 16 | 138.1 | 152.7 | 107.9 |
| Jun 23 | 138.1 | 136.6 | 111.4 |
| Jun 30 | 137.2 | 142.0 | 133.0 |
| Jul 07 | 135.0 | 139.4 | 142.4 |
| Jul 14 | 112.8 | 145.3 | 139.1 |
| Jul 21 | 93.4 | 145.0 | 144.4 |
| Jul 28 | 90.6 | 154.7 | 146.8 |
| Aug 04 | 102.0 | 171.7 | 152.6 |
| Aug 11 | 107.6 | 181.3 | 144.8 |
| Aug 18 | 103.3 | 184.6 | 148.2 |
| Aug 25 | 100.8 | 176.9 | 136.3 |
| Sep 01 | 92.6 | 174.5 | 147.1 |
| Sep 08 | 94.2 | 185.1 | 133.2 |
| Sep 15 | 98.2 | 180.2 | 113.2 |
| Sep 22 | 99.1 | 194.9 | 106.2 |
| Sep 29 | 103.4 | 194.8 | 106.4 |
| Oct 06 | 113.6 | 194.3 | 100.4 |
| Oct 13 | 118.9 | 216.5 | 97.6 |
| Oct 20 | 135.1 | 213.5 | 96.5 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 561.4 | 556.2 | 416.1 |
| Jan 13 | 576.8 | 571.4 | 427.3 |
| Jan 20 | 585.0 | 582.5 | 458.5 |
| Jan 27 | 597.3 | 598.2 | 467.6 |
| Feb 03 | 612.0 | 599.2 | 459.2 |
| Feb 10 | 590.5 | 568.5 | 469.3 |
| Feb 17 | 544.1 | 576.4 | 448.4 |
| Feb 24 | 516.2 | 482.3 | 455.3 |
| Mar 03 | 515.1 | 526.9 | 415.0 |
| Mar 10 | 562.2 | 533.2 | 451.8 |
| Mar 17 | 580.8 | 548.7 | 451.4 |
| Mar 24 | 595.8 | 546.9 | 477.6 |
| Mar 31 | 593.4 | 584.2 | 465.0 |
| Apr 07 | 605.8 | 572.1 | 471.1 |
| Apr 14 | 565.3 | 558.9 | 457.3 |
| Apr 21 | 557.3 | 547.9 | 449.4 |
| Apr 28 | 520.9 | 511.5 | 453.3 |
| May 05 | 540.5 | 525.5 | 423.6 |
| May 12 | 586.7 | 554.3 | 448.7 |
| May 19 | 608.9 | 549.6 | 492.0 |
| May 26 | 584.3 | 534.8 | 515.1 |
| Jun 02 | 580.4 | 534.3 | 516.1 |
| Jun 09 | 562.6 | 506.3 | 517.6 |
| Jun 16 | 554.1 | 488.4 | 489.8 |
| Jun 23 | 534.8 | 425.4 | 504.8 |
| Jun 30 | 479.0 | 434.5 | 470.8 |
| Jul 07 | 492.0 | 446.2 | 472.5 |
| Jul 14 | 528.7 | 469.2 | 485.5 |
| Jul 21 | 578.2 | 492.2 | 506.2 |
| Jul 28 | 566.4 | 496.8 | 511.0 |
| Aug 04 | 567.1 | 551.5 | 511.6 |
| Aug 11 | 581.8 | 550.5 | 511.1 |
| Aug 18 | 573.8 | 558.7 | 483.9 |
| Aug 25 | 529.1 | 493.4 | 492.8 |
| Sep 01 | 596.6 | 470.7 | 445.6 |
| Sep 08 | 606.1 | 497.4 | 438.9 |
| Sep 15 | 603.1 | 508.6 | 422.2 |
| Sep 22 | 595.4 | 517.9 | 418.4 |
| Sep 29 | 573.4 | 523.6 | 422.9 |
| Oct 06 | 597.9 | 548.8 | 456.8 |
| Oct 13 | 609.0 | 603.2 | 473.3 |
| Oct 20 | 637.9 | 603.1 | 473.5 |
Nearby futures price (ZW=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | -15.7 | -31.9 | -34.5 |
| Jan 13 | -12.8 | -37.6 | -34.2 |
| Jan 20 | -13.0 | -35.1 | -38.7 |
| Jan 27 | -10.3 | -42.4 | -38.3 |
| Feb 03 | -8.8 | -36.0 | -33.4 |
| Feb 10 | -19.5 | -30.2 | -33.4 |
| Feb 17 | -10.6 | -22.1 | -36.4 |
| Feb 24 | 4.2 | -21.3 | -41.9 |
| Mar 03 | 1.9 | -39.3 | -42.1 |
| Mar 10 | 9.4 | -48.7 | -40.9 |
| Mar 17 | 10.7 | -46.7 | -35.5 |
| Mar 24 | 9.7 | -45.5 | -37.9 |
| Mar 31 | 21.5 | -45.7 | -42.6 |
| Apr 07 | 15.6 | -49.8 | -40.5 |
| Apr 14 | 16.9 | -47.4 | -44.6 |
| Apr 21 | 28.0 | -56.6 | -49.2 |
| Apr 28 | 30.6 | -67.3 | -48.2 |
| May 05 | 37.9 | -72.2 | -29.6 |
| May 12 | 37.8 | -80.8 | -24.0 |
| May 19 | 30.1 | -80.2 | -17.3 |
| May 26 | 26.9 | -79.4 | -16.8 |
| Jun 02 | 13.5 | -78.0 | -9.7 |
| Jun 09 | -4.5 | -75.0 | -13.5 |
| Jun 16 | 7.6 | -62.2 | -16.4 |
| Jun 23 | -1.3 | -43.5 | -29.0 |
| Jun 30 | 6.9 | -42.3 | -37.1 |
| Jul 07 | 11.8 | -43.3 | -43.1 |
| Jul 14 | 17.5 | -48.0 | -40.8 |
| Jul 21 | 29.9 | -44.0 | -43.9 |
| Jul 28 | 33.2 | -47.3 | -40.9 |
| Aug 04 | 33.1 | -57.1 | -40.2 |
| Aug 11 | 27.7 | -50.6 | -36.0 |
| Aug 18 | 34.8 | -51.4 | -32.8 |
| Aug 25 | 44.1 | -48.7 | -35.3 |
| Sep 01 | 50.3 | -54.7 | -32.0 |
| Sep 08 | 51.2 | -53.0 | -27.2 |
| Sep 15 | 45.8 | -51.5 | -18.5 |
| Sep 22 | 41.7 | -50.3 | -17.5 |
| Sep 29 | 30.7 | -53.9 | -19.9 |
| Oct 06 | 24.0 | -63.5 | -15.3 |
| Oct 13 | 17.4 | -67.7 | -5.9 |
| Oct 20 | 6.4 | -67.3 | -6.5 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 3.2 | 19.8 | 25.2 |
| Jan 13 | 7.1 | 24.8 | 23.7 |
| Jan 20 | 12.7 | 21.7 | 32.5 |
| Jan 27 | 8.1 | 29.0 | 29.3 |
| Feb 03 | 11.0 | 17.2 | 22.6 |
| Feb 10 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 24.2 |
| Feb 17 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 30.7 |
| Feb 24 | -6.2 | 9.7 | 35.2 |
| Mar 03 | 2.2 | 34.5 | 32.4 |
| Mar 10 | -2.2 | 42.2 | 31.6 |
| Mar 17 | -3.7 | 34.8 | 27.7 |
| Mar 24 | 0.2 | 38.2 | 33.2 |
| Mar 31 | -11.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 |
| Apr 07 | -1.1 | 45.2 | 38.6 |
| Apr 14 | 0.5 | 42.8 | 42.7 |
| Apr 21 | -13.3 | 44.8 | 45.7 |
| Apr 28 | -14.9 | 55.4 | 39.0 |
| May 05 | -16.6 | 58.2 | 28.2 |
| May 12 | -15.0 | 63.4 | 22.2 |
| May 19 | -4.5 | 58.3 | 13.2 |
| May 26 | -2.1 | 61.1 | 16.4 |
| Jun 02 | 7.3 | 61.1 | 11.5 |
| Jun 09 | 19.4 | 58.8 | 14.9 |
| Jun 16 | 11.2 | 47.3 | 20.1 |
| Jun 23 | 17.8 | 35.1 | 29.2 |
| Jun 30 | 14.6 | 31.7 | 40.0 |
| Jul 07 | 9.2 | 33.4 | 35.9 |
| Jul 14 | -1.3 | 34.6 | 36.1 |
| Jul 21 | -12.9 | 26.9 | 34.6 |
| Jul 28 | -17.3 | 29.9 | 32.6 |
| Aug 04 | -18.4 | 37.9 | 32.7 |
| Aug 11 | -15.2 | 31.3 | 29.0 |
| Aug 18 | -16.0 | 33.1 | 27.3 |
| Aug 25 | -21.5 | 29.3 | 31.7 |
| Sep 01 | -31.2 | 37.3 | 26.3 |
| Sep 08 | -34.5 | 31.3 | 21.3 |
| Sep 15 | -30.8 | 31.6 | 11.6 |
| Sep 22 | -27.8 | 34.2 | 10.1 |
| Sep 29 | -17.7 | 36.7 | 11.1 |
| Oct 06 | -14.9 | 44.2 | 9.3 |
| Oct 13 | -4.4 | 48.7 | 0.4 |
| Oct 20 | 6.4 | 46.8 | -0.0 |
Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 66.3 | 51.4 | 36.3 |
| Jan 13 | 64.8 | 47.8 | 37.0 |
| Jan 20 | 63.0 | 51.3 | 38.6 |
| Jan 27 | 63.4 | 49.6 | 39.7 |
| Feb 03 | 70.2 | 45.6 | 41.4 |
| Feb 10 | 64.4 | 39.5 | 43.7 |
| Feb 17 | 68.0 | 33.5 | 45.4 |
| Feb 24 | 75.1 | 30.4 | 45.8 |
| Mar 03 | 69.1 | 28.9 | 49.2 |
| Mar 10 | 68.7 | 31.4 | 51.9 |
| Mar 17 | 70.9 | 29.4 | 54.1 |
| Mar 24 | 68.9 | 29.5 | 55.4 |
| Mar 31 | 71.9 | 37.3 | 50.9 |
| Apr 07 | 73.2 | 37.4 | 52.7 |
| Apr 14 | 62.1 | 40.4 | 46.0 |
| Apr 21 | 67.6 | 37.5 | 42.9 |
| Apr 28 | 70.9 | 39.6 | 40.8 |
| May 05 | 75.5 | 38.9 | 36.3 |
| May 12 | 73.9 | 34.9 | 36.1 |
| May 19 | 74.4 | 36.5 | 38.3 |
| May 26 | 70.9 | 34.1 | 39.9 |
| Jun 02 | 59.2 | 33.5 | 44.7 |
| Jun 09 | 53.2 | 31.8 | 46.3 |
| Jun 16 | 58.9 | 33.0 | 43.2 |
| Jun 23 | 56.5 | 31.3 | 34.4 |
| Jun 30 | 59.9 | 35.0 | 40.7 |
| Jul 07 | 64.5 | 37.4 | 43.1 |
| Jul 14 | 63.1 | 39.7 | 40.8 |
| Jul 21 | 66.6 | 45.2 | 38.7 |
| Jul 28 | 65.8 | 41.3 | 38.4 |
| Aug 04 | 68.1 | 33.1 | 40.1 |
| Aug 11 | 64.5 | 36.6 | 40.1 |
| Aug 18 | 68.4 | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| Aug 25 | 76.3 | 45.8 | 40.9 |
| Sep 01 | 82.6 | 45.5 | 44.7 |
| Sep 08 | 79.2 | 49.5 | 46.1 |
| Sep 15 | 79.0 | 55.3 | 50.1 |
| Sep 22 | 77.0 | 59.0 | 47.2 |
| Sep 29 | 70.8 | 59.3 | 47.8 |
| Oct 06 | 69.3 | 58.1 | 48.1 |
| Oct 13 | 59.8 | 60.5 | 43.0 |
| Oct 20 | 53.7 | 58.6 | 40.8 |
Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 81.9 | 83.3 | 70.8 |
| Jan 13 | 77.6 | 85.4 | 71.2 |
| Jan 20 | 76.0 | 86.4 | 77.2 |
| Jan 27 | 73.7 | 91.9 | 78.1 |
| Feb 03 | 79.1 | 81.6 | 74.7 |
| Feb 10 | 83.9 | 69.8 | 77.1 |
| Feb 17 | 78.6 | 55.6 | 81.8 |
| Feb 24 | 70.9 | 51.7 | 87.7 |
| Mar 03 | 67.3 | 68.1 | 91.3 |
| Mar 10 | 59.3 | 80.1 | 92.8 |
| Mar 17 | 60.2 | 76.0 | 89.7 |
| Mar 24 | 59.2 | 75.0 | 93.2 |
| Mar 31 | 50.3 | 83.0 | 93.6 |
| Apr 07 | 57.6 | 87.2 | 93.2 |
| Apr 14 | 45.2 | 87.8 | 90.7 |
| Apr 21 | 39.6 | 94.1 | 92.2 |
| Apr 28 | 40.2 | 106.9 | 89.0 |
| May 05 | 37.6 | 111.1 | 65.9 |
| May 12 | 36.1 | 115.7 | 60.1 |
| May 19 | 44.3 | 116.6 | 55.5 |
| May 26 | 44.0 | 113.5 | 56.7 |
| Jun 02 | 45.7 | 111.6 | 54.4 |
| Jun 09 | 57.7 | 106.8 | 59.8 |
| Jun 16 | 51.3 | 95.2 | 59.6 |
| Jun 23 | 57.8 | 74.7 | 63.4 |
| Jun 30 | 52.9 | 77.3 | 77.8 |
| Jul 07 | 52.7 | 80.7 | 86.3 |
| Jul 14 | 45.6 | 87.7 | 81.6 |
| Jul 21 | 36.7 | 89.2 | 82.6 |
| Jul 28 | 32.5 | 88.6 | 79.3 |
| Aug 04 | 35.1 | 90.1 | 80.3 |
| Aug 11 | 36.9 | 87.2 | 76.1 |
| Aug 18 | 33.6 | 93.3 | 74.8 |
| Aug 25 | 32.2 | 94.5 | 76.2 |
| Sep 01 | 32.3 | 100.1 | 76.7 |
| Sep 08 | 27.9 | 102.5 | 73.4 |
| Sep 15 | 33.2 | 106.8 | 68.6 |
| Sep 22 | 35.3 | 109.3 | 64.7 |
| Sep 29 | 40.1 | 113.2 | 67.7 |
| Oct 06 | 45.3 | 121.6 | 63.3 |
| Oct 13 | 42.5 | 128.2 | 48.9 |
| Oct 20 | 47.3 | 125.9 | 47.3 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 06 | 314.3 | 291.5 | 221.6 |
| Jan 13 | 316.9 | 300.1 | 226.1 |
| Jan 20 | 325.1 | 313.2 | 232.3 |
| Jan 27 | 330.4 | 304.7 | 241.7 |
| Feb 03 | 334.5 | 294.8 | 252.2 |
| Feb 10 | 315.9 | 278.9 | 266.1 |
| Feb 17 | 329.3 | 274.4 | 270.1 |
| Feb 24 | 326.6 | 240.8 | 269.4 |
| Mar 03 | 317.7 | 258.2 | 261.6 |
| Mar 10 | 323.2 | 273.9 | 276.2 |
| Mar 17 | 336.3 | 276.3 | 288.6 |
| Mar 24 | 341.7 | 282.0 | 294.6 |
| Mar 31 | 331.4 | 301.9 | 295.6 |
| Apr 07 | 329.0 | 287.5 | 316.9 |
| Apr 14 | 333.7 | 293.6 | 298.2 |
| Apr 21 | 339.9 | 285.4 | 291.8 |
| Apr 28 | 322.7 | 281.2 | 285.0 |
| May 05 | 337.4 | 298.2 | 254.2 |
| May 12 | 356.3 | 315.0 | 258.9 |
| May 19 | 355.1 | 322.0 | 267.4 |
| May 26 | 349.1 | 314.4 | 273.6 |
| Jun 02 | 346.4 | 318.8 | 282.2 |
| Jun 09 | 324.3 | 320.9 | 281.3 |
| Jun 16 | 322.4 | 309.2 | 260.7 |
| Jun 23 | 300.8 | 275.8 | 257.5 |
| Jun 30 | 284.8 | 278.3 | 242.3 |
| Jul 07 | 296.9 | 281.9 | 253.1 |
| Jul 14 | 301.0 | 290.6 | 253.9 |
| Jul 21 | 345.5 | 299.7 | 258.6 |
| Jul 28 | 352.1 | 303.9 | 258.1 |
| Aug 04 | 356.7 | 310.7 | 266.9 |
| Aug 11 | 345.2 | 297.3 | 279.4 |
| Aug 18 | 339.9 | 313.0 | 273.4 |
| Aug 25 | 321.5 | 288.8 | 265.3 |
| Sep 01 | 344.6 | 295.9 | 253.0 |
| Sep 08 | 342.9 | 314.1 | 253.8 |
| Sep 15 | 347.4 | 321.3 | 243.8 |
| Sep 22 | 346.0 | 324.3 | 245.3 |
| Sep 29 | 334.9 | 335.7 | 252.4 |
| Oct 06 | 343.4 | 352.4 | 256.5 |
| Oct 13 | 343.5 | 363.6 | 243.2 |
| Oct 20 | 355.1 | 363.4 | 256.0 |
Nearby futures price (KE=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.