Livestock Market Intelligence

Prices: 2026-10-27 Storage: 2026-09-30 COT: 2026-10-20

At a Glance

Each market against its own history · price and positioning over 15 years · feed ratios are context

Market	Price	Positioning	Feed ratio
Live Cattle	$229.9794th over 15 yrsunusual high	+51,14337th over 15 yrsnormal	—
Feeder Cattle	$349.9095th over 15 yrsunusual high	+10,44472nd over 15 yrsnormal	—
Lean Hogs	$64.6717th over 15 yrsnormal	-41,1333rd lowest over 15 yrsunusual low	—

Price

CME front month · $/cwt · weekly

Live Cattle

This weekLive Cattle settled at $229.97/cwt, the 94th percentile over 15 yrs, -2% on the year. unusual high

Live Cattle — Front-Month Price, Weekly, latest 53 readings (10th pct 108.33, 90th pct 211.10)

Date	$/cwt
2025-10-31	236.60
2025-11-07	221.35
2025-11-14	219.15
2025-11-21	214.45
2025-11-28	215.57
2025-12-05	227.15
2025-12-12	229.80
2025-12-19	230.40
2025-12-26	229.82
2026-01-02	236.00
2026-01-09	233.72
2026-01-16	232.15
2026-01-23	234.90
2026-01-30	235.85
2026-02-06	237.75
2026-02-13	243.07
2026-02-20	246.57
2026-02-27	244.00
2026-03-06	234.57
2026-03-13	230.90
2026-03-20	234.05
2026-03-27	238.50
2026-04-03	246.20
2026-04-10	251.78
2026-04-17	249.95
2026-04-24	248.30
2026-05-01	253.00
2026-05-08	248.90
2026-05-15	253.90
2026-05-22	249.30
2026-05-29	248.25
2026-06-05	250.07
2026-06-12	249.88
2026-06-19	254.80
2026-06-26	257.45
2026-07-03	239.22
2026-07-10	235.20
2026-07-17	224.43
2026-07-24	227.07
2026-07-31	231.75
2026-08-07	231.70
2026-08-14	223.62
2026-08-21	223.05
2026-08-28	219.25
2026-09-04	212.95
2026-09-11	219.68
2026-09-18	215.93
2026-09-25	218.88
2026-10-02	218.85
2026-10-09	224.97
2026-10-16	227.55
2026-10-23	229.88
2026-10-30	229.97

Feeder Cattle

This weekFeeder Cattle settled at $349.90/cwt, the 95th percentile over 15 yrs, -1% on the year. unusual high

Feeder Cattle — Front-Month Price, Weekly, latest 53 readings (10th pct 136.10, 90th pct 293.35)

Date	$/cwt
2025-10-31	338.88
2025-11-07	326.40
2025-11-14	338.68
2025-11-21	314.23
2025-11-28	323.98
2025-12-05	339.05
2025-12-12	339.10
2025-12-19	345.60
2025-12-26	346.18
2026-01-02	356.10
2026-01-09	360.73
2026-01-16	361.93
2026-01-23	364.80
2026-01-30	360.27
2026-02-06	367.43
2026-02-13	366.15
2026-02-20	368.02
2026-02-27	355.43
2026-03-06	355.62
2026-03-13	349.48
2026-03-20	357.75
2026-03-27	361.45
2026-04-03	372.90
2026-04-10	374.15
2026-04-17	371.32
2026-04-24	367.62
2026-05-01	371.40
2026-05-08	367.38
2026-05-15	368.68
2026-05-22	349.85
2026-05-29	348.43
2026-06-05	353.90
2026-06-12	357.43
2026-06-19	366.60
2026-06-26	369.85
2026-07-03	360.62
2026-07-10	354.60
2026-07-17	345.95
2026-07-24	345.32
2026-07-31	348.02
2026-08-07	351.65
2026-08-14	340.82
2026-08-21	334.75
2026-08-28	320.90
2026-09-04	324.82
2026-09-11	337.82
2026-09-18	333.57
2026-09-25	334.93
2026-10-02	334.62
2026-10-09	343.85
2026-10-16	343.62
2026-10-23	348.32
2026-10-30	349.90

Lean Hogs

This weekLean Hogs settled at $64.67/cwt, the 17th percentile over 15 yrs, -21% on the year. normal

Lean Hogs — Front-Month Price, Weekly, latest 53 readings (10th pct 59.80, 90th pct 102.30)

Date	$/cwt
2025-10-31	81.28
2025-11-07	79.40
2025-11-14	78.50
2025-11-21	77.80
2025-11-28	80.60
2025-12-05	81.65
2025-12-12	83.33
2025-12-19	84.50
2025-12-26	84.53
2026-01-02	84.10
2026-01-09	85.30
2026-01-16	88.28
2026-01-23	88.35
2026-01-30	87.25
2026-02-06	87.38
2026-02-13	86.95
2026-02-20	93.67
2026-02-27	95.72
2026-03-06	95.62
2026-03-13	93.45
2026-03-20	91.28
2026-03-27	90.78
2026-04-03	90.35
2026-04-10	90.72
2026-04-17	93.40
2026-04-24	94.30
2026-05-01	92.83
2026-05-08	90.88
2026-05-15	98.75
2026-05-22	95.75
2026-05-29	95.85
2026-06-05	94.30
2026-06-12	92.53
2026-06-19	95.03
2026-06-26	92.92
2026-07-03	93.85
2026-07-10	94.78
2026-07-17	101.65
2026-07-24	102.85
2026-07-31	98.85
2026-08-07	95.50
2026-08-14	95.40
2026-08-21	80.88
2026-08-28	81.90
2026-09-04	82.30
2026-09-11	81.53
2026-09-18	78.10
2026-09-25	78.22
2026-10-02	77.88
2026-10-09	75.05
2026-10-16	66.92
2026-10-23	65.58
2026-10-30	64.67

How to read it. The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly closes over 15 years.

Positioning

CFTC Disaggregated COT · managed money

Live Cattle

This weekFunds are net long 51,143 contracts, the 37th percentile over 15 yrs, from +75,363 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 49th percentile over 15 yrs (normal). normal

Live Cattle — Funds' Net Position, latest 53 readings (10th pct 17,621, 90th pct 125,287)

Date	Net (contracts)
2025-10-21	124,901
2025-10-28	116,355
2025-11-04	108,348
2025-11-10	101,265
2025-11-18	97,331
2025-11-25	92,911
2025-12-02	82,208
2025-12-09	88,290
2025-12-16	91,303
2025-12-23	94,868
2025-12-30	92,975
2026-01-06	94,761
2026-01-13	101,316
2026-01-20	101,477
2026-01-27	105,685
2026-02-03	114,531
2026-02-10	108,634
2026-02-17	116,717
2026-02-24	119,013
2026-03-03	114,519
2026-03-10	109,032
2026-03-17	106,615
2026-03-24	110,909
2026-03-31	123,742
2026-04-07	133,265
2026-04-14	136,642
2026-04-21	134,795
2026-04-28	136,591
2026-05-05	141,965
2026-05-12	130,886
2026-05-19	130,113
2026-05-26	120,569
2026-06-02	114,964
2026-06-09	109,002
2026-06-16	124,349
2026-06-23	126,025
2026-06-30	119,303
2026-07-07	113,321
2026-07-14	96,324
2026-07-21	75,363
2026-07-28	66,523
2026-08-04	66,067
2026-08-11	64,662
2026-08-18	61,514
2026-08-25	57,441
2026-09-01	47,914
2026-09-08	47,250
2026-09-15	45,262
2026-09-22	46,983
2026-09-29	51,304
2026-10-06	50,920
2026-10-13	48,748
2026-10-20	51,143

How to read it. Funds are managed money (hedge funds and CTAs). The shaded band is the middle 80% of weekly readings over 15 years; outside it, the position is unusual for this market. Heavy fund length leaves fewer new buyers, and it has to be unwound one day.

Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →

Feeder Cattle

This weekFunds are net long 10,444 contracts, the 72nd percentile over 15 yrs, from +7,905 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 89th percentile over 15 yrs (normal). normal

Feeder Cattle — Funds' Net Position, latest 53 readings (10th pct -3,472, 90th pct 17,430)

Date	Net (contracts)
2025-10-21	24,727
2025-10-28	21,323
2025-11-04	17,763
2025-11-10	17,293
2025-11-18	17,430
2025-11-25	16,048
2025-12-02	13,418
2025-12-09	14,261
2025-12-16	14,094
2025-12-23	14,629
2025-12-30	15,295
2026-01-06	16,838
2026-01-13	16,308
2026-01-20	16,083
2026-01-27	16,629
2026-02-03	16,435
2026-02-10	16,162
2026-02-17	16,806
2026-02-24	18,162
2026-03-03	17,956
2026-03-10	18,070
2026-03-17	17,933
2026-03-24	17,810
2026-03-31	20,111
2026-04-07	20,202
2026-04-14	21,136
2026-04-21	18,765
2026-04-28	17,089
2026-05-05	18,725
2026-05-12	15,186
2026-05-19	16,380
2026-05-26	10,595
2026-06-02	10,843
2026-06-09	10,920
2026-06-16	13,123
2026-06-23	15,227
2026-06-30	15,064
2026-07-07	13,690
2026-07-14	9,880
2026-07-21	7,905
2026-07-28	7,423
2026-08-04	8,605
2026-08-11	8,738
2026-08-18	7,498
2026-08-25	5,714
2026-09-01	7,508
2026-09-08	6,781
2026-09-15	6,701
2026-09-22	6,909
2026-09-29	7,638
2026-10-06	8,787
2026-10-13	8,852
2026-10-20	10,444

Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →

Lean Hogs

This weekFunds are net short 41,133 contracts, the 3rd-lowest weekly reading in 15 yrs, from -18,157 thirteen weeks ago. Open interest: the 89th percentile over 15 yrs (normal). unusual low

Lean Hogs — Funds' Net Position, latest 53 readings (10th pct -3,260, 90th pct 81,858)

Date	Net (contracts)
2025-10-21	117,231
2025-10-28	95,161
2025-11-04	78,818
2025-11-10	71,512
2025-11-18	57,988
2025-11-25	50,193
2025-12-02	46,650
2025-12-09	51,471
2025-12-16	64,836
2025-12-23	75,325
2025-12-30	78,921
2026-01-06	81,858
2026-01-13	82,624
2026-01-20	97,418
2026-01-27	113,806
2026-02-03	128,857
2026-02-10	133,281
2026-02-17	116,461
2026-02-24	116,983
2026-03-03	124,036
2026-03-10	127,704
2026-03-17	116,553
2026-03-24	101,483
2026-03-31	94,208
2026-04-07	98,061
2026-04-14	87,887
2026-04-21	65,591
2026-04-28	57,565
2026-05-05	51,082
2026-05-12	40,860
2026-05-19	33,713
2026-05-26	12,985
2026-06-02	-6,551
2026-06-09	-13,701
2026-06-16	-20,959
2026-06-23	-25,560
2026-06-30	-27,367
2026-07-07	-29,002
2026-07-14	-30,438
2026-07-21	-18,157
2026-07-28	-10,884
2026-08-04	-9,642
2026-08-11	-15,121
2026-08-18	-23,486
2026-08-25	-31,135
2026-09-01	-28,323
2026-09-08	-23,556
2026-09-15	-31,401
2026-09-22	-35,548
2026-09-29	-44,186
2026-10-06	-35,272
2026-10-13	-42,088
2026-10-20	-41,133

Full positioning: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest →

Supply

USDA Cattle on Feed · USDA Cold Storage

Monthly. Placements (blue) = cattle entering feedlots. Marketings (red) = cattle sold for slaughter. Rising placements vs. marketings = supply building. Data: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, released ~20th of each month.

USDA Cattle on Feed monthly placements and marketings

Date	Placements (Head)	Marketings (Head)
2023-11-01	1,865,000	1,751,000
2023-12-01	1,698,000	1,724,000
2024-01-01	1,791,000	1,843,000
2024-02-01	1,890,000	1,793,000
2024-03-01	1,752,000	1,707,000
2024-04-01	1,656,000	1,872,000
2024-05-01	2,046,000	1,955,000
2024-06-01	1,564,000	1,786,000
2024-07-01	1,702,000	1,855,000
2024-08-01	1,976,000	1,819,000
2024-09-01	2,156,000	1,698,000
2024-10-01	2,266,000	1,845,000
2024-11-01	1,796,000	1,725,000
2024-12-01	1,642,000	1,742,000
2025-01-01	1,822,000	1,869,000
2025-02-01	1,554,000	1,633,000
2025-03-01	1,843,000	1,727,000
2025-04-01	1,613,000	1,825,000
2025-05-01	1,887,000	1,758,000
2025-06-01	1,441,000	1,707,000
2025-07-01	1,598,000	1,749,000
2025-08-01	1,780,000	1,571,000
2025-09-01	2,021,000	1,632,000
2025-10-01	2,040,000	1,698,000
2025-11-01	1,594,000	1,520,000
2025-12-01	1,555,000	1,774,000
2026-01-01	1,741,000	1,626,000
2026-02-01	1,611,000	1,522,000
2026-03-01	1,711,000	1,634,000
2026-04-01	1,702,000	1,642,000
2026-05-01	1,704,000	1,551,000
2026-06-01	1,399,000	1,661,000
2026-07-01	1,422,000	1,620,000
2026-08-01	1,620,000	1,517,000
2026-09-01	1,777,000	1,524,000

Monthly seasonal overlay. Solid colored = current year; dotted = prior year; gray = historical years. High storage = supply overhang, price headwind. Data: USDA NASS Cold Storage, released ~22nd of each month.

USDA cold storage frozen beef and pork by month and year

Month	2016 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2017 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2018 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2019 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2020 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2021 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2022 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2023 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2024 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2025 Beef / Pork (M lb)	2026 Beef / Pork (M lb)
Jan	534 / 625	538 / 524	502 / 581	510 / 563	488 / 626	519 / 458	526 / 434	535 / 519	465 / 463	455 / 407	427 / 404
Feb	506 / 629	502 / 568	459 / 610	474 / 616	495 / 649	513 / 483	532 / 478	501 / 522	438 / 459	436 / 423	419 / 403
Mar	482 / 614	464 / 545	464 / 611	452 / 608	502 / 617	483 / 451	536 / 486	478 / 534	424 / 463	425 / 409	407 / 401
Apr	468 / 637	458 / 590	471 / 635	430 / 621	479 / 611	449 / 457	532 / 533	452 / 567	426 / 499	419 / 456	405 / 451
May	462 / 616	412 / 588	465 / 624	405 / 629	417 / 468	417 / 462	526 / 546	426 / 532	413 / 482	408 / 451	403 / 455
Jun	465 / 586	415 / 559	449 / 562	406 / 619	429 / 460	402 / 442	517 / 539	411 / 487	399 / 475	400 / 419	389 / 455
Jul	470 / 599	432 / 555	484 / 552	454 / 612	440 / 461	401 / 442	512 / 526	410 / 471	394 / 453	398 / 405	398 / 440
Aug	477 / 609	477 / 576	501 / 582	470 / 607	449 / 465	415 / 454	514 / 543	395 / 469	388 / 455	387 / 389	405 / 431
Sep	519 / 642	496 / 619	507 / 589	469 / 599	463 / 466	440 / 470	526 / 537	421 / 462	413 / 459	403 / 393	400 / 428
Oct	533 / 599	507 / 598	516 / 571	466 / 612	500 / 447	474 / 442	510 / 510	446 / 438	433 / 426	415 / 376	—
Nov	531 / 519	485 / 502	515 / 508	478 / 575	511 / 420	490 / 402	523 / 452	457 / 416	441 / 392	426 / 371	—
Dec	568 / 475	488 / 490	496 / 505	480 / 580	536 / 416	507 / 396	544 / 456	480 / 427	453 / 397	435 / 387	—

Feed & Margins

Feed cost ratios · cattle feeding and hog margins

Cow-calf sector signal: measures whether raising and selling feeder animals is profitable relative to feed costs — corn is the primary variable cost at this stage. Cattle-Corn ratio above 30 = favorable cow-calf economics (expansion/retention signal). Hog-Corn ratio above 20 = favorable farrowing economics. Note: this ratio does not include the cost of purchasing feeder animals and therefore does not reflect feedlot profitability — see Feeding Margin Spreads below for that signal.

Weekly livestock futures prices and cattle corn hog corn feed cost ratios

Date	Live Cattle ($/cwt)	Lean Hogs ($/cwt)	Corn (¢/bu)	Cattle-Corn Ratio	Hog-Corn Ratio
2024-11-01	185.93	84.07	414.50	44.9	20.3
2024-11-08	183.70	80.43	431.00	42.6	18.7
2024-11-15	182.95	79.50	424.00	43.1	18.8
2024-11-22	186.77	81.68	425.50	43.9	19.2
2024-11-29	187.98	82.07	423.00	44.4	19.4
2024-12-06	187.38	83.30	430.75	43.5	19.3
2024-12-13	193.65	83.72	430.00	45.0	19.5
2024-12-20	191.32	85.93	446.25	42.9	19.2
2024-12-27	193.50	84.15	454.00	42.6	18.5
2025-01-03	194.05	80.78	450.75	43.0	17.9
2025-01-10	198.77	82.55	470.50	42.2	17.6
2025-01-17	196.75	81.12	484.25	40.6	16.8
2025-01-24	204.77	82.30	486.50	42.1	16.9
2025-01-31	204.60	84.18	482.00	42.5	17.5
2025-02-07	200.77	87.25	487.50	41.2	17.9
2025-02-14	197.75	89.47	496.25	39.9	18.0
2025-02-21	197.82	87.68	491.25	40.3	17.9
2025-02-28	197.73	83.68	453.50	43.6	18.4
2025-03-07	200.27	87.35	455.25	44.0	19.2
2025-03-14	203.18	86.62	445.50	45.6	19.4
2025-03-21	206.95	86.12	464.25	44.6	18.6
2025-03-28	208.82	86.70	453.25	46.1	19.1
2025-04-04	202.62	87.38	460.25	44.0	19.0
2025-04-11	202.48	85.43	490.25	41.3	17.4
2025-04-18	209.82	90.40	482.25	43.5	18.8
2025-04-25	214.25	92.80	478.75	44.8	19.4
2025-05-02	211.10	92.95	461.25	45.8	20.1
2025-05-09	214.68	90.38	441.50	48.6	20.5
2025-05-16	212.23	100.32	443.50	47.9	22.6
2025-05-23	215.80	98.30	459.50	47.0	21.4
2025-05-30	215.48	101.32	444.00	48.5	22.8
2025-06-06	226.30	102.62	442.50	51.1	23.2
2025-06-13	225.10	103.70	444.50	50.6	23.3
2025-06-20	223.02	112.78	428.75	52.0	26.3
2025-06-27	224.75	113.25	417.50	53.8	27.1
2025-07-04	214.05	107.97	431.50	49.6	25.0
2025-07-11	222.20	106.72	403.00	55.1	26.5
2025-07-18	223.55	106.47	408.50	54.7	26.1
2025-07-25	226.48	108.70	399.50	56.7	27.2
2025-08-01	230.12	107.35	389.50	59.1	27.6
2025-08-08	232.55	108.90	382.75	60.8	28.4
2025-08-15	236.25	90.10	383.75	61.6	23.5
2025-08-22	239.95	91.20	388.25	61.8	23.5
2025-08-29	241.90	95.03	398.00	60.8	23.9
2025-09-05	235.98	96.03	399.00	59.1	24.1
2025-09-12	229.98	97.12	399.00	57.6	24.3
2025-09-19	233.57	97.97	424.00	55.1	23.1
2025-09-26	231.80	101.50	422.00	54.9	24.1
2025-10-03	231.02	98.97	419.00	55.1	23.6
2025-10-10	238.48	97.00	413.00	57.7	23.5
2025-10-17	240.25	82.38	422.50	56.9	19.5
2025-10-24	233.75	81.90	423.25	55.2	19.4
2025-10-31	236.60	81.28	431.50	54.8	18.8
2025-11-07	221.35	79.40	427.25	51.8	18.6
2025-11-14	219.15	78.50	430.25	50.9	18.2
2025-11-21	214.45	77.80	425.50	50.4	18.3
2025-11-28	215.57	80.60	435.50	49.5	18.5
2025-12-05	227.15	81.65	436.75	52.0	18.7
2025-12-12	229.80	83.32	431.50	53.3	19.3
2025-12-19	230.40	84.50	443.75	51.9	19.0
2025-12-26	229.82	84.53	450.00	51.1	18.8
2026-01-02	236.00	84.10	437.50	53.9	19.2
2026-01-09	233.73	85.30	445.75	52.4	19.1
2026-01-16	232.15	88.28	424.75	54.7	20.8
2026-01-23	234.90	88.35	430.50	54.6	20.5
2026-01-30	235.85	87.25	428.25	55.1	20.4
2026-02-06	237.75	87.38	430.25	55.3	20.3
2026-02-13	243.07	86.95	431.75	56.3	20.1
2026-02-20	246.57	93.68	427.50	57.7	21.9
2026-02-27	244.00	95.72	438.75	55.6	21.8
2026-03-06	234.57	95.62	447.00	52.5	21.4
2026-03-13	230.90	93.45	452.50	51.0	20.6
2026-03-20	234.05	91.28	465.50	50.3	19.6
2026-03-27	238.50	90.78	462.00	51.6	19.6
2026-04-03	246.20	90.35	452.25	54.4	20.0
2026-04-10	251.77	90.72	441.00	57.1	20.6
2026-04-17	249.95	93.40	448.75	55.7	20.8
2026-04-24	248.30	94.30	455.00	54.6	20.7
2026-05-01	253.00	92.82	468.25	54.0	19.8
2026-05-08	248.90	90.88	456.25	54.5	19.9
2026-05-15	253.90	98.75	455.75	55.7	21.7
2026-05-22	249.30	95.75	463.25	53.8	20.7
2026-05-29	248.25	95.85	446.75	55.6	21.4
2026-06-05	250.07	94.30	417.50	59.9	22.6
2026-06-12	249.88	92.53	412.75	60.5	22.4
2026-06-19	254.80	95.03	417.50	61.0	22.8
2026-06-26	257.45	92.93	412.75	62.4	22.5
2026-07-03	239.23	93.85	425.00	56.3	22.1
2026-07-10	235.20	94.78	438.00	53.7	21.6
2026-07-17	224.43	101.65	444.75	50.5	22.9
2026-07-24	227.07	102.85	464.25	48.9	22.1
2026-07-31	231.75	98.85	440.75	52.6	22.4
2026-08-07	231.70	95.50	439.00	52.8	21.8
2026-08-14	223.62	95.40	459.00	48.7	20.8
2026-08-21	223.05	80.88	483.75	46.1	16.7
2026-08-28	219.25	81.90	512.00	42.8	16.0
2026-09-04	212.95	82.30	512.00	41.6	16.1
2026-09-11	219.68	81.53	510.25	43.0	16.0
2026-09-18	215.93	78.10	527.50	40.9	14.8
2026-09-25	218.88	78.22	528.25	41.4	14.8
2026-10-02	218.85	77.88	497.75	44.0	15.7
2026-10-09	224.98	75.05	479.75	46.9	15.6
2026-10-16	227.55	66.93	474.25	48.0	14.1
2026-10-23	229.88	65.57	456.00	50.4	14.4
2026-10-26	229.98	64.68	—	—	—
2026-10-27	—	—	454.00	—	—

Feedlot operator signal: measures whether buying feeder animals and finishing them to market weight generates a return after all input costs. Unlike the feed cost ratio above, this includes the purchase cost of the feeder animal — the dominant input at the feedlot stage. Cattle 1:1:2 spread = live cattle revenue − feeder cattle cost − 2 bu corn per cwt gain. Hog margin = lean hog revenue − 3 bu corn − SBM (1 ton/20 cwt). Latest: cattle $-127.57/cwt, hogs $+34.58/cwt. When the cattle-corn ratio (chart above) is favorable but this margin is deeply negative, it signals that feeder cattle are expensive relative to fat cattle — a feedlot squeeze, not a feed cost problem. Sustained negative margins suppress feedlot placements, reducing finished cattle supply 4–6 months forward — the primary structural bull case for live cattle futures.

Cattle and hog feeding margin dollar spreads, last 26 weeks

Date	Cattle 1:1:2 ($/cwt)	Hog Margin ($/cwt)	SBM ($/ton)
2026-05-01	-127.76	+62.73	320.80
2026-05-08	-127.60	+61.07	322.50
2026-05-15	-123.89	+68.36	334.30
2026-05-22	-109.82	+65.26	331.90
2026-05-29	-109.11	+65.96	329.80
2026-06-05	-112.18	+66.35	308.50
2026-06-12	-115.80	+65.08	301.30
2026-06-19	-120.15	+67.44	301.30
2026-06-26	-120.66	+65.20	307.00
2026-07-03	-129.89	+65.71	307.70
2026-07-10	-128.16	+65.48	323.10
2026-07-17	-130.41	+72.30	320.20
2026-07-24	-127.54	+72.36	331.30
2026-07-31	-125.08	+70.02	312.20
2026-08-07	-128.73	+66.92	308.10
2026-08-14	-126.39	+66.20	308.70
2026-08-21	-121.37	+50.48	317.70
2026-08-28	-111.89	+49.63	338.20
2026-09-04	-122.12	+49.67	345.30
2026-09-11	-128.35	+48.87	347.00
2026-09-18	-128.20	+44.54	354.60
2026-09-25	-126.61	+43.68	373.90
2026-10-02	-125.73	+45.71	344.70
2026-10-09	-128.47	+42.22	368.70
2026-10-16	-125.55	+34.85	357.10
2026-10-23	-127.57	+34.58	346.10

Field & Weather

Pasture drought (USDA Drought Monitor) · hog heat stress and feedlot cold stress, with the forecast

Pasture Drought Monitor — Southern & Northern Plains

Average drought coverage across Southern Plains states (TX, OK, KS, NM). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) ≥ 30% is historically significant for forage availability.

Southern Plains drought monitor coverage by week

Date	D0+ (%)	D2+ (%)	D3+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-10-28	32.6	6.3	1.2	0.1
2025-11-04	29.5	8.1	1.3	0.1
2025-11-11	23.3	11.6	1.9	0.1
2025-11-18	21.0	13.3	3.2	0.1
2025-11-25	26.1	11.6	3.1	0.1
2025-12-02	25.6	10.8	2.6	0.1
2025-12-09	27.7	10.6	2.5	0.1
2025-12-16	26.6	10.7	3.7	0.1
2025-12-23	24.7	12.0	4.5	0.1
2025-12-30	23.5	12.3	4.7	0.1
2026-01-06	19.1	15.7	5.4	0.1
2026-01-13	16.6	17.4	7.3	0.1
2026-01-20	16.8	19.6	8.2	0.1
2026-01-27	17.4	18.4	7.8	0.1
2026-02-03	22.9	21.3	8.3	0.1
2026-02-10	24.2	23.0	9.1	0.1
2026-02-17	25.8	23.4	8.8	0.2
2026-02-24	18.4	25.4	10.3	0.5
2026-03-03	16.4	32.6	10.9	1.0
2026-03-10	18.0	31.4	10.9	1.0
2026-03-17	18.6	32.6	11.1	1.1
2026-03-24	20.1	40.4	15.0	1.4
2026-03-31	15.8	49.4	21.4	1.6
2026-04-07	14.3	47.2	18.0	0.9
2026-04-14	10.9	49.9	16.4	0.6
2026-04-21	12.0	45.2	16.1	0.5
2026-04-28	13.8	46.1	17.9	0.5
2026-05-05	14.7	44.9	18.7	0.2
2026-05-12	14.5	43.6	19.4	1.3
2026-05-19	15.1	42.6	21.6	1.6
2026-05-26	17.5	41.2	20.8	2.0
2026-06-02	18.5	33.7	18.1	3.6
2026-06-09	22.0	27.9	11.8	2.6
2026-06-16	15.9	27.1	11.8	2.4
2026-06-23	17.9	24.7	11.0	2.4
2026-06-30	16.8	19.0	6.1	0.6
2026-07-07	17.2	17.9	6.0	0.6
2026-07-14	16.8	16.7	5.5	0.5
2026-07-21	17.4	16.6	5.5	0.7
2026-07-28	18.8	16.9	5.6	0.7
2026-08-04	27.2	18.6	7.9	0.8
2026-08-11	21.9	23.8	11.4	0.9
2026-08-18	24.9	29.4	14.1	3.4
2026-08-25	18.9	38.5	16.8	4.8
2026-09-01	14.2	46.1	17.2	5.1
2026-09-08	18.5	52.4	22.5	5.5
2026-09-15	18.4	52.8	22.8	6.7
2026-09-22	13.2	57.2	24.1	8.3
2026-09-29	10.3	61.0	27.3	9.3
2026-10-06	11.7	47.7	18.7	5.7
2026-10-13	13.2	45.9	19.6	5.9
2026-10-20	19.2	40.4	13.2	2.5

Average drought coverage across Northern Plains states (NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, CO, ID). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) ≥ 30% is historically significant for forage availability.

Northern Plains drought monitor coverage by week

Date	D0+ (%)	D2+ (%)	D3+ (%)	D4 (%)
2025-10-28	19.4	3.4	0.3	0.0
2025-11-04	21.9	3.4	0.3	0.0
2025-11-11	23.5	3.4	0.3	0.0
2025-11-18	26.0	3.4	0.3	0.0
2025-11-25	26.8	3.6	0.3	0.0
2025-12-02	25.5	3.7	0.4	0.0
2025-12-09	25.2	3.7	0.3	0.0
2025-12-16	23.6	3.7	0.3	0.0
2025-12-23	27.2	4.2	0.4	0.1
2025-12-30	29.4	4.2	0.7	0.1
2026-01-06	29.0	6.7	1.1	0.2
2026-01-13	23.5	6.5	1.1	0.2
2026-01-20	20.4	7.0	1.4	0.2
2026-01-27	20.2	8.7	1.4	0.2
2026-02-03	20.3	9.4	1.8	0.2
2026-02-10	21.0	11.6	2.7	0.2
2026-02-17	19.0	13.3	3.5	0.2
2026-02-24	15.0	16.0	3.5	0.2
2026-03-03	14.4	20.4	4.0	0.2
2026-03-10	12.8	21.7	5.5	0.2
2026-03-17	11.3	30.6	7.4	0.2
2026-03-24	11.4	40.9	12.1	1.5
2026-03-31	9.2	47.2	24.6	5.4
2026-04-07	7.7	46.7	22.8	5.4
2026-04-14	8.0	50.6	26.8	5.4
2026-04-21	7.6	52.7	31.4	5.5
2026-04-28	7.8	51.3	31.3	4.9
2026-05-05	10.7	50.6	31.9	5.5
2026-05-12	10.9	50.4	31.1	6.1
2026-05-19	12.7	49.0	29.3	4.4
2026-05-26	13.2	48.9	28.0	4.4
2026-06-02	13.5	46.7	25.1	4.4
2026-06-09	14.2	45.1	24.3	3.7
2026-06-16	23.6	45.4	24.1	4.0
2026-06-23	22.0	46.3	23.6	4.2
2026-06-30	21.9	40.7	17.9	3.4
2026-07-07	20.8	40.2	18.6	3.4
2026-07-14	22.0	39.8	18.5	3.8
2026-07-21	23.5	41.1	19.7	3.8
2026-07-28	21.2	46.2	20.5	4.2
2026-08-04	16.2	47.7	18.6	4.1
2026-08-11	16.3	51.0	21.0	4.3
2026-08-18	13.8	49.2	20.4	3.8
2026-08-25	11.7	51.7	19.5	3.8
2026-09-01	14.6	48.0	18.8	3.4
2026-09-08	19.5	45.8	19.2	3.6
2026-09-15	19.3	45.7	18.6	4.0
2026-09-22	18.8	41.5	15.1	3.6
2026-09-29	16.3	31.3	12.3	2.7
2026-10-06	19.2	30.0	11.8	2.4
2026-10-13	19.6	29.2	9.8	2.4
2026-10-20	20.6	25.5	7.6	1.6

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) coverage by week of year. Overlapping years show whether current drought intensity is historically unusual.

Southern Plains D2+ drought coverage by week

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	15.7	7.3	13.4
Jan 08	17.4	8.1	10.3
Jan 15	19.6	8.1	10.3
Jan 22	18.4	8.1	6.3
Jan 29	21.3	7.9	5.5
Feb 05	23.0	8.1	4.7
Feb 12	23.4	8.3	3.8
Feb 19	25.4	9.4	3.8
Feb 26	32.6	9.7	3.8
Mar 05	31.3	11.1	3.8
Mar 12	32.6	19.8	4.0
Mar 19	40.4	21.4	3.9
Mar 26	49.4	20.8	4.0
Apr 02	47.2	20.6	3.8
Apr 09	49.8	20.7	3.8
Apr 16	45.2	16.9	6.8
Apr 23	46.1	16.9	12.0
Apr 30	44.9	15.8	16.5
May 07	43.6	12.1	16.0
May 14	42.6	11.8	17.1
May 21	41.2	10.3	15.2
May 28	33.7	9.8	15.7
Jun 04	27.9	8.9	9.8
Jun 11	27.1	8.2	7.6
Jun 18	24.7	8.2	7.4
Jun 25	19.0	7.9	6.3
Jul 02	17.9	5.9	6.9
Jul 09	16.7	5.5	7.3
Jul 16	16.6	4.8	7.3
Jul 23	16.9	4.5	7.0
Jul 30	18.6	4.0	6.6
Aug 06	23.8	4.0	8.4
Aug 13	29.4	3.9	9.5
Aug 20	38.5	3.7	11.2
Aug 27	46.1	3.7	17.2
Sep 03	52.4	3.4	14.3
Sep 10	52.8	3.6	17.9
Sep 17	57.2	3.6	19.7
Sep 24	61.0	4.3	18.4
Oct 01	47.7	4.3	20.8
Oct 08	45.9	4.8	25.3
Oct 15	40.4	7.1	30.0

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) coverage by week of year. Overlapping years show whether current drought intensity is historically unusual.

Northern Plains D2+ drought coverage by week

Date	2026 (%)	2025 (%)	2024 (%)
Jan 01	6.7	31.4	8.6
Jan 08	6.5	31.4	7.8
Jan 15	7.0	31.2	6.8
Jan 22	8.7	28.8	6.7
Jan 29	9.4	30.8	6.7
Feb 05	11.6	31.3	6.0
Feb 12	13.3	30.3	5.6
Feb 19	16.0	30.1	5.6
Feb 26	20.4	31.0	5.6
Mar 05	21.7	30.0	5.6
Mar 12	30.6	29.7	5.6
Mar 19	40.9	34.5	4.7
Mar 26	47.2	34.3	2.9
Apr 02	46.7	27.0	2.9
Apr 09	50.6	28.3	2.9
Apr 16	52.7	28.8	2.9
Apr 23	51.3	21.2	2.9
Apr 30	50.6	22.9	2.6
May 07	50.4	28.9	0.4
May 14	49.0	24.1	0.4
May 21	48.9	21.6	0.1
May 28	46.7	15.8	0.1
Jun 04	45.1	12.7	0.1
Jun 11	45.4	11.5	0.1
Jun 18	46.3	11.9	0.1
Jun 25	40.7	9.7	0.0
Jul 02	40.2	8.8	0.0
Jul 09	39.8	9.9	0.4
Jul 16	41.1	9.9	0.5
Jul 23	46.2	9.9	1.3
Jul 30	47.7	9.4	2.3
Aug 06	51.0	10.9	4.2
Aug 13	49.2	11.2	3.8
Aug 20	51.7	11.1	4.4
Aug 27	47.9	10.4	5.4
Sep 03	45.8	10.5	6.1
Sep 10	45.6	9.6	6.2
Sep 17	41.5	9.2	8.0
Sep 24	31.3	9.0	8.5
Oct 01	30.0	8.7	11.0
Oct 08	29.2	4.3	20.4
Oct 15	25.5	3.4	29.4

Southern Plains: TX, OK, KS, NM — primary cow-calf and stocker region. Northern Plains: NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, CO, ID — range cattle and summer grazing. High D2+ → reduced forage and hay availability → producers liquidate cow-calf herds early (near-term bearish, long-term bullish). Data: US Drought Monitor, released Tuesdays.

Population-weighted apparent temperature for Iowa, N. Carolina, Minnesota, and 10 other hog-producing states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 20–68°F; heat stress above 68°F; cold stress below 20°F.

Hog belt year-round apparent temperature and thermal zone

Date	Apparent Temp (°F)	Actual Temp (°F)	Thermal Zone	Forecast
2026-10-20	54.9	54.9	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-21	57.8	57.8	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-22	58.9	58.9	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-23	60.1	60.1	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-24	61.8	61.8	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-25	58.3	58.3	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-26	56.2	56.2	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-27	56.7	56.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-28	60.9	60.9	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-29	62.5	62.5	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-30	56.7	56.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-31	54.6	54.6	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-01	54.8	54.8	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-02	55.7	55.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-03	54.2	54.2	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-04	50.3	50.3	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-05	50.9	50.9	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-06	45.0	48.6	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-07	40.1	44.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-08	44.5	48.0	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-09	52.1	52.1	thermoneutral	Forecast

Population-weighted apparent temperature for TX Panhandle, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and 5 other feedlot states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 30–75°F; cold stress below 30°F; heat stress above 85°F.

Feedlot belt year-round apparent temperature and thermal zone

Date	Apparent Temp (°F)	Actual Temp (°F)	Thermal Zone	Forecast
2026-10-20	59.2	59.2	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-21	62.8	62.8	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-22	63.9	63.9	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-23	65.1	65.1	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-24	62.3	62.3	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-25	56.5	56.5	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-26	55.4	55.4	thermoneutral	Actual
2026-10-27	55.5	55.5	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-28	59.0	59.0	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-29	61.3	61.3	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-30	58.0	58.0	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-10-31	55.3	55.3	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-01	56.9	56.9	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-02	55.7	55.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-03	50.3	50.3	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-04	42.5	48.1	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-05	46.8	49.4	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-06	50.1	50.1	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-07	50.2	50.2	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-08	53.7	53.7	thermoneutral	Forecast
2026-11-09	52.5	52.5	thermoneutral	Forecast

Go Deeper

Positioning: Livestock →
Full COT for live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs: commercials, gross longs and shorts, open interest.

WASDE Livestock →
USDA's monthly red-meat balance sheets.

Drought Monitor →
Drought maps for the agricultural regions.

Grain Outlook →
Corn and soybean meal, the feed side of the margin.

Pressure Index →
The grain and livestock pressure composite.