SoftSignal LLC
Livestock Market Intelligence
Live Cattle · Feeder Cattle · Lean Hogs · Supply & Positioning
Week of May 15, 2026 Next USDA Cattle on Feed: May 20, 2026
Data: USDA NASS · CFTC · CME
Supply Signal Bullish Favorable margins and/or tight cold storage support cattle and hog prices
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Cattle-Corn 54.0 vs. breakeven 30
Livestock Market Intelligence — May 15, 2026 Data through: COT: 2026-05-05 · USDA: May 15, 2026 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/livestock_market_intelligence_6f270744.html COT POSITIONING — LIVE CATTLE (CME): Managed Money +141,965 cts 98th pct heavily long CATTLE ON FEED: Latest placements 0 head
Prices: 2026-05-15 Storage: 2026-03-01 COT: 2026-05-05
Live Cattle
$252.07/cwt
Front-month LE=F · 2026-05-15
Feeder Cattle
$367.58/cwt
Front-month GF=F · 2026-05-15
Lean Hogs
$90.45/cwt
Front-month HE=F · 2026-05-15
Cattle-Corn Ratio
54.0
Breakeven = 30 (favorable)
Cold Storage
Beef 411M lb
Pork 411M lb · 2026-03-01

Monthly. Placements (blue) = cattle entering feedlots. Marketings (red) = cattle sold for slaughter. Rising placements vs. marketings = supply building. Data: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, released ~20th of each month.

DatePlacements (Head)Marketings (Head)
2025-01-011,822,0001,869,000
2025-02-011,554,0001,633,000
2025-03-011,843,0001,727,000
2025-04-011,613,0001,825,000
2025-05-011,887,0001,758,000
2025-06-011,441,0001,707,000
2025-07-011,598,0001,749,000
2025-08-011,780,0001,571,000
2025-09-012,021,0001,632,000
2025-10-012,040,0001,698,000
2025-11-011,594,0001,520,000
2025-12-011,555,0001,774,000
2026-01-011,741,0001,626,000
2026-02-011,611,0001,522,000
2026-03-011,709,0001,632,000

Monthly seasonal overlay. Solid colored = current year; dotted = prior year; grey = historical years. High storage = supply overhang, price headwind. Data: USDA NASS Cold Storage, released ~22nd of each month.

Month2021 Beef / Pork (M lb)2022 Beef / Pork (M lb)2023 Beef / Pork (M lb)2024 Beef / Pork (M lb)2025 Beef / Pork (M lb)2026 Beef / Pork (M lb)
Jan519 / 458526 / 434535 / 519465 / 463455 / 407427 / 404
Feb513 / 483532 / 478501 / 522438 / 459436 / 423419 / 403
Mar483 / 451536 / 486478 / 534424 / 463425 / 409411 / 411
Apr449 / 457532 / 533452 / 567426 / 499419 / 456
May417 / 462526 / 546426 / 532413 / 482408 / 451
Jun402 / 442517 / 539411 / 487399 / 475400 / 419
Jul401 / 442512 / 526410 / 471394 / 453398 / 405
Aug415 / 454514 / 543395 / 469388 / 455387 / 389
Sep440 / 470526 / 537421 / 462413 / 459403 / 393
Oct474 / 442510 / 510446 / 438433 / 426415 / 376
Nov490 / 402523 / 452457 / 416441 / 392426 / 371
Dec507 / 396544 / 456480 / 427453 / 397435 / 387

Cattle-Corn ratio above 30 = profitable to feed cattle (expansion signal). Hog-Corn ratio above 20 = profitable to farrow hogs. Below breakeven = margin squeeze → producers reduce placements.

DateLive Cattle ($/cwt)Lean Hogs ($/cwt)Corn (¢/bu)Cattle-Corn RatioHog-Corn Ratio
2024-05-17181.0596.50452.5040.021.3
2024-05-24183.7094.28464.7539.520.3
2024-05-31181.5594.35446.2540.721.1
2024-06-07182.1892.53448.7540.620.6
2024-06-14186.8291.18450.0041.520.3
2024-06-21187.6092.05435.0043.121.2
2024-06-28193.5089.57397.2548.722.6
2024-07-05186.4389.88411.2545.321.9
2024-07-12182.3888.70400.0045.622.2
2024-07-19183.1091.57390.5046.923.4
2024-07-26188.5793.47394.5047.823.7
2024-08-02184.1092.20386.5047.623.9
2024-08-09184.2589.80376.7548.923.8
2024-08-16182.8075.07370.5049.320.3
2024-08-23182.5780.55367.7549.621.9
2024-08-30185.8582.22378.0049.221.8
2024-09-06175.1879.50383.7545.620.7
2024-09-13177.6578.45390.7545.520.1
2024-09-20182.4882.22401.7545.420.5
2024-09-27183.7582.05418.0044.019.6
2024-10-04187.0084.03424.7544.019.8
2024-10-11188.6084.07415.7545.420.2
2024-10-18187.6277.82404.7546.419.2
2024-10-25189.7079.68415.2545.719.2
2024-11-01185.9384.07414.5044.920.3
2024-11-08183.7080.43431.0042.618.7
2024-11-15182.9579.50424.0043.118.8
2024-11-22186.7781.68425.5043.919.2
2024-11-29187.9882.07423.0044.419.4
2024-12-06187.3883.30430.7543.519.3
2024-12-13193.6583.72430.0045.019.5
2024-12-20191.3285.93446.2542.919.2
2024-12-27193.5084.15454.0042.618.5
2025-01-03194.0580.78450.7543.017.9
2025-01-10198.7782.55470.5042.217.6
2025-01-17196.7581.12484.2540.616.8
2025-01-24204.7782.30486.5042.116.9
2025-01-31204.6084.18482.0042.517.5
2025-02-07200.7787.25487.5041.217.9
2025-02-14197.7589.47496.2539.918.0
2025-02-21197.8287.68491.2540.317.9
2025-02-28197.7383.68453.5043.618.4
2025-03-07200.2787.35455.2544.019.2
2025-03-14203.1886.62445.5045.619.4
2025-03-21206.9586.12464.2544.618.6
2025-03-28208.8286.70453.2546.119.1
2025-04-04202.6287.38460.2544.019.0
2025-04-11202.4885.43490.2541.317.4
2025-04-18209.8290.40482.2543.518.8
2025-04-25214.2592.80478.7544.819.4
2025-05-02211.1092.95461.2545.820.1
2025-05-09214.6890.38441.5048.620.5
2025-05-16212.23100.32443.5047.922.6
2025-05-23215.8098.30459.5047.021.4
2025-05-30215.48101.32444.0048.522.8
2025-06-06226.30102.62442.5051.123.2
2025-06-13225.10103.70444.5050.623.3
2025-06-20223.02112.78428.7552.026.3
2025-06-27224.75113.25417.5053.827.1
2025-07-04214.05107.97431.5049.625.0
2025-07-11222.20106.72403.0055.126.5
2025-07-18223.55106.47408.5054.726.1
2025-07-25226.48108.70399.5056.727.2
2025-08-01230.12107.35389.5059.127.6
2025-08-08232.55108.90382.7560.828.4
2025-08-15236.2590.10383.7561.623.5
2025-08-22239.9591.20388.2561.823.5
2025-08-29241.9095.03398.0060.823.9
2025-09-05235.9896.03399.0059.124.1
2025-09-12229.9897.12399.0057.624.3
2025-09-19233.5797.97424.0055.123.1
2025-09-26231.80101.50422.0054.924.1
2025-10-03231.0298.97419.0055.123.6
2025-10-10238.4897.00413.0057.723.5
2025-10-17240.2582.38422.5056.919.5
2025-10-24233.7581.90423.2555.219.4
2025-10-31236.6081.28431.5054.818.8
2025-11-07221.3579.40427.2551.818.6
2025-11-14219.1578.50430.2550.918.2
2025-11-21214.4577.80425.5050.418.3
2025-11-28215.5780.60435.5049.518.5
2025-12-05227.1581.65436.7552.018.7
2025-12-12229.8083.32431.5053.319.3
2025-12-19230.4084.50443.7551.919.0
2025-12-26229.8284.53450.0051.118.8
2026-01-02236.0084.10437.5053.919.2
2026-01-09233.7385.30445.7552.419.1
2026-01-16232.1588.28424.7554.720.8
2026-01-23234.9088.35430.5054.620.5
2026-01-30235.8587.25428.2555.120.4
2026-02-06237.7587.38430.2555.320.3
2026-02-13243.0786.95431.7556.320.1
2026-02-20246.5793.68427.5057.721.9
2026-02-27244.0095.72438.7555.621.8
2026-03-06234.5795.62447.0052.521.4
2026-03-13230.9093.45452.5051.020.6
2026-03-20234.0591.28465.5050.319.6
2026-03-27238.5090.78462.0051.619.6
2026-04-03246.2090.35452.2554.420.0
2026-04-10251.7790.72441.0057.120.6
2026-04-17249.9593.40448.7555.720.8
2026-04-24248.3094.30455.0054.620.7
2026-05-01253.0092.82468.2554.019.8
2026-05-08248.9090.88456.2554.519.9
2026-05-15252.0790.45467.0054.019.4

D2 = Severe Drought. Covers TX, KS, NE, OK, SD, MT, ND, CO, WY, NM, ID. High D2+ → reduced forage and hay availability → producers liquidate cow-calf herds early (near-term bearish, long-term bullish for prices). Data: US Drought Monitor, released Tuesdays.

DateD2+ Coverage (%)
2025-05-2018.8
2025-05-2716.7
2025-06-0313.2
2025-06-1011.1
2025-06-1710.1
2025-06-2410.3
2025-07-018.9
2025-07-087.5
2025-07-158.0
2025-07-227.7
2025-07-297.6
2025-08-057.1
2025-08-127.9
2025-08-198.1
2025-08-268.0
2025-09-027.6
2025-09-097.5
2025-09-167.1
2025-09-236.8
2025-09-307.0
2025-10-076.8
2025-10-144.5
2025-10-215.0
2025-10-284.6
2025-11-045.4
2025-11-116.9
2025-11-187.7
2025-11-257.0
2025-12-026.7
2025-12-096.7
2025-12-166.7
2025-12-237.5
2025-12-307.7
2026-01-0610.5
2026-01-1311.2
2026-01-2012.4
2026-01-2712.9
2026-02-0314.5
2026-02-1016.5
2026-02-1717.7
2026-02-2420.0
2026-03-0325.6
2026-03-1025.8
2026-03-1731.4
2026-03-2440.7
2026-03-3148.1
2026-04-0746.9
2026-04-1450.3
2026-04-2149.4
2026-04-2849.1
2026-05-0548.1
2026-05-1247.5

Population-weighted apparent temperature for Iowa, N. Carolina, Minnesota, and 10 other hog-producing states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 20–68°F; heat stress above 68°F; cold stress below 20°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-05-0858.058.0thermoneutralActual
2026-05-0961.461.4thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1059.059.0thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1158.758.7thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1263.463.4thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1362.862.8thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1462.762.7thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1567.667.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-1671.571.5mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1771.171.1mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1873.373.3mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1963.463.4thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2058.758.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2156.856.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2259.059.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2366.666.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2473.473.4mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2576.576.5mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2676.576.5mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2770.870.8mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2871.271.2mild_heatForecast

Population-weighted apparent temperature for TX Panhandle, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and 5 other feedlot states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 30–75°F; cold stress below 30°F; heat stress above 85°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-05-0864.564.5thermoneutralActual
2026-05-0966.366.3thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1061.261.2thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1162.362.3thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1271.271.2thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1370.870.8thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1474.374.3thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1576.376.3mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1676.776.7mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1776.376.3mild_heatForecast
2026-05-1869.969.9thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-1957.657.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2061.861.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2162.762.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2268.468.4thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2373.373.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2478.878.8mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2579.479.4mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2676.976.9mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2770.270.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2871.571.5thermoneutralForecast
Live Cattle — CFTC COT Positioning
Managed money holds a net position of +141,965 contracts (98th percentile vs. full history since 2010). Week-over-week change: +5,373 contracts.

Managed money net long by week of year, seasonal overlay. Gold line = Live Cattle front-month price (LE=F). Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points.

DateMM Net (contracts)MM WoWCommercial NetOpen Interest
2025-05-13+135,594+2,256-125,273533,798
2025-05-20+132,564-3,030-118,529552,411
2025-05-27+131,293-1,271-117,396565,843
2025-06-03+131,805+512-122,261574,244
2025-06-10+137,836+6,030-130,167520,139
2025-06-17+135,250-2,586-126,937518,679
2025-06-24+132,893-2,357-125,634527,319
2025-07-01+129,462-3,432-120,061525,421
2025-07-08+128,423-1,039-114,175522,969
2025-07-15+132,486+4,063-118,379535,724
2025-07-22+131,659-825-118,952549,947
2025-07-29+128,509-3,150-118,138560,009
2025-08-05+125,565-2,945-113,354511,308
2025-08-12+124,813-752-112,877515,604
2025-08-19+124,519-294-115,062529,257
2025-08-26+126,152+1,633-118,866551,154
2025-09-02+130,442+4,290-120,632571,295
2025-09-09+131,003+562-119,676547,703
2025-09-16+127,747-3,256-114,551552,234
2025-09-23+124,903-2,844-115,374549,364
2025-09-30+116,112-8,792-106,909539,732
2025-10-07+116,014-98-108,457492,113
2025-10-14+123,754+7,740-120,009502,856
2025-10-21+124,901+1,148-118,031508,879
2025-10-28+116,355-8,547-102,580528,900
2025-11-04+108,348-8,006-100,794525,008
2025-11-10+101,265-7,083-95,857502,426
2025-11-18+97,331-3,933-90,664510,628
2025-11-25+92,911-4,419-88,973544,815
2025-12-02+82,208-10,703-80,795512,216
2025-12-09+88,290+6,082-84,034443,041
2025-12-16+91,303+3,013-87,667446,928
2025-12-23+94,868+3,564-91,161453,449
2025-12-30+92,975-1,893-91,042454,866
2026-01-06+94,761+1,786-94,393445,732
2026-01-13+101,316+6,555-102,269445,879
2026-01-20+101,477+162-102,259453,665
2026-01-27+105,685+4,209-103,214454,434
2026-02-03+114,531+8,846-109,589464,755
2026-02-10+108,634-5,898-100,832427,229
2026-02-17+116,717+8,083-108,512435,731
2026-02-24+119,013+2,296-108,146452,607
2026-03-03+114,519-4,493-100,337459,972
2026-03-10+109,032-5,487-94,416450,974
2026-03-17+106,615-2,418-93,044444,606
2026-03-24+110,909+4,295-96,663443,751
2026-03-31+123,742+12,833-110,051450,603
2026-04-07+133,265+9,523-118,557440,941
2026-04-14+136,642+3,377-123,593447,345
2026-04-21+134,795-1,848-117,002453,174
2026-04-28+136,591+1,797-123,534473,739
2026-05-05+141,965+5,373-128,381474,894
Supporting Markets — Feeder Cattle & Lean Hogs
Feeder Cattle  MM net: +18,72593th pct WoW: +1,636
Lean Hogs  MM net: +51,08263th pct WoW: -6,482