SoftSignal LLC
Livestock Market Intelligence
Live Cattle · Feeder Cattle · Lean Hogs · Supply & Positioning
Week of May 22, 2026 Next USDA Cattle on Feed: June 20, 2026
Data: USDA NASS · CFTC · CME
Supply Signal Bullish Favorable margins and/or tight cold storage support cattle and hog prices
|
Cattle-Corn 53.9 vs. breakeven 30
Livestock Market Intelligence — May 22, 2026 Data through: COT: 2026-05-12 · USDA: May 22, 2026 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/livestock_market_intelligence_aa89b439.html COT POSITIONING — LIVE CATTLE (CME): Managed Money +130,886 cts 93th pct heavily long CATTLE ON FEED: Latest placements 0 head
Prices: 2026-05-22 Storage: 2026-03-31 COT: 2026-05-12
Live Cattle
$254.55/cwt
Front-month LE=F · 2026-05-22
Feeder Cattle
$369.58/cwt
Front-month GF=F · 2026-05-22
Lean Hogs
$97.93/cwt
Front-month HE=F · 2026-05-22
Cattle-Corn Ratio
53.9
Breakeven = 30 (favorable)
Cold Storage
Beef 411M lb
Pork 411M lb · 2026-03-31

Monthly. Placements (blue) = cattle entering feedlots. Marketings (red) = cattle sold for slaughter. Rising placements vs. marketings = supply building. Data: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, released ~20th of each month.

DatePlacements (Head)Marketings (Head)
2025-01-011,822,0001,869,000
2025-02-011,554,0001,633,000
2025-03-011,843,0001,727,000
2025-04-011,613,0001,825,000
2025-05-011,887,0001,758,000
2025-06-011,441,0001,707,000
2025-07-011,598,0001,749,000
2025-08-011,780,0001,571,000
2025-09-012,021,0001,632,000
2025-10-012,040,0001,698,000
2025-11-011,594,0001,520,000
2025-12-011,555,0001,774,000
2026-01-011,741,0001,626,000
2026-02-011,611,0001,522,000
2026-03-011,709,0001,632,000

Monthly seasonal overlay. Solid colored = current year; dotted = prior year; grey = historical years. High storage = supply overhang, price headwind. Data: USDA NASS Cold Storage, released ~22nd of each month.

Month2021 Beef / Pork (M lb)2022 Beef / Pork (M lb)2023 Beef / Pork (M lb)2024 Beef / Pork (M lb)2025 Beef / Pork (M lb)2026 Beef / Pork (M lb)
Jan519 / 458526 / 434535 / 519465 / 463455 / 407427 / 404
Feb513 / 483532 / 478501 / 522438 / 459436 / 423419 / 403
Mar483 / 451536 / 486478 / 534424 / 463425 / 409411 / 411
Apr449 / 457532 / 533452 / 567426 / 499419 / 456
May417 / 462526 / 546426 / 532413 / 482408 / 451
Jun402 / 442517 / 539411 / 487399 / 475400 / 419
Jul401 / 442512 / 526410 / 471394 / 453398 / 405
Aug415 / 454514 / 543395 / 469388 / 455387 / 389
Sep440 / 470526 / 537421 / 462413 / 459403 / 393
Oct474 / 442510 / 510446 / 438433 / 426415 / 376
Nov490 / 402523 / 452457 / 416441 / 392426 / 371
Dec507 / 396544 / 456480 / 427453 / 397435 / 387

Cattle-Corn ratio above 30 = profitable to feed cattle (expansion signal). Hog-Corn ratio above 20 = profitable to farrow hogs. Below breakeven = margin squeeze → producers reduce placements.

DateLive Cattle ($/cwt)Lean Hogs ($/cwt)Corn (¢/bu)Cattle-Corn RatioHog-Corn Ratio
2024-05-24183.7094.28464.7539.520.3
2024-05-31181.5594.35446.2540.721.1
2024-06-07182.1892.53448.7540.620.6
2024-06-14186.8291.18450.0041.520.3
2024-06-21187.6092.05435.0043.121.2
2024-06-28193.5089.57397.2548.722.6
2024-07-05186.4389.88411.2545.321.9
2024-07-12182.3888.70400.0045.622.2
2024-07-19183.1091.57390.5046.923.4
2024-07-26188.5793.47394.5047.823.7
2024-08-02184.1092.20386.5047.623.9
2024-08-09184.2589.80376.7548.923.8
2024-08-16182.8075.07370.5049.320.3
2024-08-23182.5780.55367.7549.621.9
2024-08-30185.8582.22378.0049.221.8
2024-09-06175.1879.50383.7545.620.7
2024-09-13177.6578.45390.7545.520.1
2024-09-20182.4882.22401.7545.420.5
2024-09-27183.7582.05418.0044.019.6
2024-10-04187.0084.03424.7544.019.8
2024-10-11188.6084.07415.7545.420.2
2024-10-18187.6277.82404.7546.419.2
2024-10-25189.7079.68415.2545.719.2
2024-11-01185.9384.07414.5044.920.3
2024-11-08183.7080.43431.0042.618.7
2024-11-15182.9579.50424.0043.118.8
2024-11-22186.7781.68425.5043.919.2
2024-11-29187.9882.07423.0044.419.4
2024-12-06187.3883.30430.7543.519.3
2024-12-13193.6583.72430.0045.019.5
2024-12-20191.3285.93446.2542.919.2
2024-12-27193.5084.15454.0042.618.5
2025-01-03194.0580.78450.7543.017.9
2025-01-10198.7782.55470.5042.217.6
2025-01-17196.7581.12484.2540.616.8
2025-01-24204.7782.30486.5042.116.9
2025-01-31204.6084.18482.0042.517.5
2025-02-07200.7787.25487.5041.217.9
2025-02-14197.7589.47496.2539.918.0
2025-02-21197.8287.68491.2540.317.9
2025-02-28197.7383.68453.5043.618.4
2025-03-07200.2787.35455.2544.019.2
2025-03-14203.1886.62445.5045.619.4
2025-03-21206.9586.12464.2544.618.6
2025-03-28208.8286.70453.2546.119.1
2025-04-04202.6287.38460.2544.019.0
2025-04-11202.4885.43490.2541.317.4
2025-04-18209.8290.40482.2543.518.8
2025-04-25214.2592.80478.7544.819.4
2025-05-02211.1092.95461.2545.820.1
2025-05-09214.6890.38441.5048.620.5
2025-05-16212.23100.32443.5047.922.6
2025-05-23215.8098.30459.5047.021.4
2025-05-30215.48101.32444.0048.522.8
2025-06-06226.30102.62442.5051.123.2
2025-06-13225.10103.70444.5050.623.3
2025-06-20223.02112.78428.7552.026.3
2025-06-27224.75113.25417.5053.827.1
2025-07-04214.05107.97431.5049.625.0
2025-07-11222.20106.72403.0055.126.5
2025-07-18223.55106.47408.5054.726.1
2025-07-25226.48108.70399.5056.727.2
2025-08-01230.12107.35389.5059.127.6
2025-08-08232.55108.90382.7560.828.4
2025-08-15236.2590.10383.7561.623.5
2025-08-22239.9591.20388.2561.823.5
2025-08-29241.9095.03398.0060.823.9
2025-09-05235.9896.03399.0059.124.1
2025-09-12229.9897.12399.0057.624.3
2025-09-19233.5797.97424.0055.123.1
2025-09-26231.80101.50422.0054.924.1
2025-10-03231.0298.97419.0055.123.6
2025-10-10238.4897.00413.0057.723.5
2025-10-17240.2582.38422.5056.919.5
2025-10-24233.7581.90423.2555.219.4
2025-10-31236.6081.28431.5054.818.8
2025-11-07221.3579.40427.2551.818.6
2025-11-14219.1578.50430.2550.918.2
2025-11-21214.4577.80425.5050.418.3
2025-11-28215.5780.60435.5049.518.5
2025-12-05227.1581.65436.7552.018.7
2025-12-12229.8083.32431.5053.319.3
2025-12-19230.4084.50443.7551.919.0
2025-12-26229.8284.53450.0051.118.8
2026-01-02236.0084.10437.5053.919.2
2026-01-09233.7385.30445.7552.419.1
2026-01-16232.1588.28424.7554.720.8
2026-01-23234.9088.35430.5054.620.5
2026-01-30235.8587.25428.2555.120.4
2026-02-06237.7587.38430.2555.320.3
2026-02-13243.0786.95431.7556.320.1
2026-02-20246.5793.68427.5057.721.9
2026-02-27244.0095.72438.7555.621.8
2026-03-06234.5795.62447.0052.521.4
2026-03-13230.9093.45452.5051.020.6
2026-03-20234.0591.28465.5050.319.6
2026-03-27238.5090.78462.0051.619.6
2026-04-03246.2090.35452.2554.420.0
2026-04-10251.7790.72441.0057.120.6
2026-04-17249.9593.40448.7555.720.8
2026-04-24248.3094.30455.0054.620.7
2026-05-01253.0092.82468.2554.019.8
2026-05-08248.9090.88456.2554.519.9
2026-05-15253.9098.75455.7555.721.7
2026-05-22254.5597.93472.5053.920.7
Pasture Drought Monitor — Southern & Northern Plains

Average drought coverage across Southern Plains states (TX, OK, KS, NM). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) ≥ 30% is historically significant for forage availability.

DateD0+ (%)D2+ (%)D3+ (%)D4 (%)
2025-05-2020.111.87.74.8
2025-05-2723.810.37.54.7
2025-06-0321.19.86.24.0
2025-06-1011.28.95.53.4
2025-06-1710.98.24.93.0
2025-06-2410.38.24.93.0
2025-07-0110.57.94.51.9
2025-07-0811.45.93.41.5
2025-07-1511.95.52.91.4
2025-07-229.84.82.60.2
2025-07-296.74.52.00.2
2025-08-056.74.01.40.2
2025-08-129.24.01.40.2
2025-08-1915.13.91.40.1
2025-08-2614.43.71.40.1
2025-09-0217.93.71.40.1
2025-09-0922.73.41.10.1
2025-09-1627.53.61.10.1
2025-09-2325.43.61.10.1
2025-09-3027.84.31.10.1
2025-10-0733.14.31.30.1
2025-10-1436.24.81.60.1
2025-10-2136.97.12.00.1
2025-10-2832.66.31.20.1
2025-11-0429.58.11.30.1
2025-11-1123.311.61.90.1
2025-11-1821.013.33.20.1
2025-11-2526.111.63.10.1
2025-12-0225.610.82.60.1
2025-12-0927.710.62.50.1
2025-12-1626.610.73.70.1
2025-12-2324.712.04.50.1
2025-12-3023.512.34.70.1
2026-01-0619.115.75.40.1
2026-01-1316.617.47.30.1
2026-01-2016.819.68.20.1
2026-01-2717.418.47.80.1
2026-02-0322.921.38.30.1
2026-02-1024.223.09.10.1
2026-02-1725.823.48.80.2
2026-02-2418.425.410.30.5
2026-03-0316.432.610.91.0
2026-03-1018.031.410.91.0
2026-03-1718.632.611.11.1
2026-03-2420.140.415.01.4
2026-03-3115.849.421.41.6
2026-04-0714.347.218.00.9
2026-04-1410.949.916.40.6
2026-04-2112.045.216.10.5
2026-04-2813.846.117.90.5
2026-05-0514.744.918.70.2
2026-05-1214.543.619.41.3

Average drought coverage across Northern Plains states (NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, CO, ID). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) ≥ 30% is historically significant for forage availability.

DateD0+ (%)D2+ (%)D3+ (%)D4 (%)
2025-05-2031.424.15.10.0
2025-05-2728.021.63.00.0
2025-06-0327.115.81.90.0
2025-06-1025.912.71.40.0
2025-06-1725.611.51.40.0
2025-06-2425.311.81.40.0
2025-07-0131.69.72.00.0
2025-07-0829.98.81.70.0
2025-07-1526.39.92.20.0
2025-07-2224.69.92.20.0
2025-07-2922.09.93.00.0
2025-08-0522.89.45.10.0
2025-08-1224.410.95.11.8
2025-08-1916.211.27.21.8
2025-08-2615.911.17.11.8
2025-09-0215.110.46.20.0
2025-09-0915.410.66.10.0
2025-09-1615.49.63.80.0
2025-09-2312.99.23.80.0
2025-09-3014.79.03.60.0
2025-10-0717.98.73.60.0
2025-10-1419.14.30.30.0
2025-10-2117.23.40.30.0
2025-10-2819.43.40.30.0
2025-11-0421.93.40.30.0
2025-11-1123.53.40.30.0
2025-11-1826.03.40.30.0
2025-11-2526.83.60.30.0
2025-12-0225.53.70.40.0
2025-12-0925.23.70.30.0
2025-12-1623.63.70.30.0
2025-12-2327.24.20.40.1
2025-12-3029.44.20.70.1
2026-01-0629.06.71.10.2
2026-01-1323.56.51.10.2
2026-01-2020.47.01.40.2
2026-01-2720.28.71.40.2
2026-02-0320.39.41.80.2
2026-02-1021.011.62.70.2
2026-02-1719.013.33.50.2
2026-02-2415.016.03.50.2
2026-03-0314.420.44.00.2
2026-03-1012.821.75.50.2
2026-03-1711.330.67.40.2
2026-03-2411.440.912.11.5
2026-03-319.247.224.65.4
2026-04-077.746.722.85.4
2026-04-148.050.626.85.4
2026-04-217.652.731.45.5
2026-04-287.851.331.34.9
2026-05-0510.750.631.95.5
2026-05-1210.950.431.16.1

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) coverage by week of year. Overlapping years show whether current drought intensity is historically unusual.

Date2026 (%)2025 (%)2024 (%)
Jan 0115.77.313.4
Jan 0817.48.110.3
Jan 1519.68.110.3
Jan 2218.48.16.3
Jan 2921.37.95.5
Feb 0523.08.14.7
Feb 1223.48.33.8
Feb 1925.49.43.8
Feb 2632.69.73.8
Mar 0531.311.13.8
Mar 1232.619.84.0
Mar 1940.421.43.9
Mar 2649.420.84.0
Apr 0247.220.63.8
Apr 0949.820.73.8
Apr 1645.216.96.8
Apr 2346.116.912.0
Apr 3044.915.816.5
May 0743.612.116.0

D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) coverage by week of year. Overlapping years show whether current drought intensity is historically unusual.

Date2026 (%)2025 (%)2024 (%)
Jan 016.731.48.6
Jan 086.531.47.8
Jan 157.031.26.8
Jan 228.728.86.7
Jan 299.430.86.7
Feb 0511.631.36.0
Feb 1213.330.35.6
Feb 1916.030.15.6
Feb 2620.431.05.6
Mar 0521.730.05.6
Mar 1230.629.75.6
Mar 1940.934.54.7
Mar 2647.234.32.9
Apr 0246.727.02.9
Apr 0950.628.32.9
Apr 1652.728.82.9
Apr 2351.321.22.9
Apr 3050.622.92.6
May 0750.428.90.4

Southern Plains: TX, OK, KS, NM — primary cow-calf and stocker region. Northern Plains: NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, CO, ID — range cattle and summer grazing. High D2+ → reduced forage and hay availability → producers liquidate cow-calf herds early (near-term bearish, long-term bullish). Data: US Drought Monitor, released Tuesdays.

Population-weighted apparent temperature for Iowa, N. Carolina, Minnesota, and 10 other hog-producing states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 20–68°F; heat stress above 68°F; cold stress below 20°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-05-1362.862.8thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1462.762.7thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1566.866.8thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1670.270.2mild_heatActual
2026-05-1771.871.8mild_heatActual
2026-05-1871.071.0mild_heatActual
2026-05-1963.763.7thermoneutralActual
2026-05-2058.958.9thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2159.859.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2257.157.1thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2361.761.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2466.666.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2569.769.7mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2670.470.4mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2771.071.0mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2872.572.5mild_heatForecast
2026-05-2975.275.2mild_heatForecast
2026-05-3070.570.5mild_heatForecast
2026-05-3164.364.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-06-0163.063.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-06-0263.663.6thermoneutralForecast

Population-weighted apparent temperature for TX Panhandle, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and 5 other feedlot states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 30–75°F; cold stress below 30°F; heat stress above 85°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-05-1370.870.8thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1474.374.3thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1575.975.9mild_heatActual
2026-05-1676.276.2mild_heatActual
2026-05-1774.174.1thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1868.368.3thermoneutralActual
2026-05-1955.955.9thermoneutralActual
2026-05-2056.256.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2160.360.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2263.463.4thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2364.764.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2470.370.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2574.774.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2673.373.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2770.270.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2873.273.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-2974.374.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-3074.574.5thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-3173.173.1thermoneutralForecast
2026-06-0174.274.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-06-0271.371.3thermoneutralForecast
CFTC COT Positioning — MM · Commercials · Open Interest · SHPI
Live Cattle Futures (CME) · COT data through 2026-05-12
MM Net Position
+130,886
Managed money long minus short · 93th pct
MM Week-over-Week
-11,078
Change in managed money net contracts
Open Interest
480,057 cts
Total open interest · 93th pct
Commercial Net
-113,689
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net · 12th pct
Managed money holds +130,886 contracts (93th pct, heavily long). Commercials are net short at -113,689 contracts (12th pct).

Managed money net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Current year in red, prior two years highlighted.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0194.8143.517.4
Jan 08101.3147.413.8
Jan 15101.5148.513.0
Jan 22105.7156.917.2
Jan 29114.5150.427.2
Feb 05108.6135.736.1
Feb 12116.7128.542.5
Feb 19119.0121.350.5
Feb 26114.5110.554.8
Mar 05109.0112.859.4
Mar 12106.6120.263.3
Mar 19110.9137.962.4
Mar 26123.7142.859.2
Apr 02133.3118.553.3
Apr 09136.6106.537.0
Apr 16134.8120.532.3
Apr 23136.6128.835.7
Apr 30142.0133.333.6
May 07130.9135.636.9

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01-94.4-125.4-31.2
Jan 08-102.3-129.5-26.6
Jan 15-102.3-123.9-26.5
Jan 22-103.2-135.3-33.9
Jan 29-109.6-131.6-43.0
Feb 05-100.8-119.2-50.1
Feb 12-108.5-116.9-57.9
Feb 19-108.1-111.7-67.4
Feb 26-100.3-97.6-71.9
Mar 05-94.4-104.3-78.5
Mar 12-93.0-111.0-78.6
Mar 19-96.7-130.8-75.8
Mar 26-110.1-133.9-74.9
Apr 02-118.6-114.4-69.5
Apr 09-123.6-103.3-55.3
Apr 16-117.0-111.4-48.5
Apr 23-123.5-119.4-51.5
Apr 30-128.4-121.0-52.1
May 07-113.7-125.3-51.9

Total open interest. Rising OI confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01445.7482.2378.7
Jan 08445.9488.4374.2
Jan 15453.7502.6375.9
Jan 22454.4543.5376.9
Jan 29464.8544.2388.9
Feb 05427.2484.2358.8
Feb 12435.7480.9373.1
Feb 19452.6477.3376.8
Feb 26460.0478.5396.7
Mar 05451.0471.7408.1
Mar 12444.6499.0406.8
Mar 19443.8537.1416.9
Mar 26450.6547.3423.0
Apr 02440.9471.8426.3
Apr 09447.3437.8380.4
Apr 16453.2464.4373.2
Apr 23473.7499.5370.4
Apr 30474.9527.1386.6
May 07480.1533.8367.2
DateLive Cattle ($/cwt)
2023-01-06156.77
2023-01-13157.73
2023-01-20156.62
2023-01-27156.73
2023-02-03160.27
2023-02-10161.20
2023-02-17163.57
2023-02-24165.20
2023-03-03165.43
2023-03-10164.27
2023-03-17162.32
2023-03-24163.00
2023-03-31168.35
2023-04-07171.07
2023-04-14174.75
2023-04-21173.98
2023-04-28175.18
2023-05-05161.93
2023-05-12164.40
2023-05-19165.73
2023-05-26167.35
2023-06-02176.43
2023-06-09178.23
2023-06-16178.35
2023-06-23177.50
2023-06-30181.50
2023-07-07177.00
2023-07-14180.18
2023-07-21180.02
2023-07-28178.15
2023-08-04180.90
2023-08-11180.38
2023-08-18178.52
2023-08-25180.68
2023-09-01180.15
2023-09-08183.23
2023-09-15186.93
2023-09-22187.07
2023-09-29184.20
2023-10-06183.07
2023-10-13185.12
2023-10-20184.27
2023-10-27184.00
2023-11-03183.88
2023-11-10174.18
2023-11-17175.75
2023-11-24170.25
2023-12-01169.27
2023-12-08165.45
2023-12-15168.23
2023-12-22170.05
2023-12-29173.68
2024-01-05170.57
2024-01-12171.38
2024-01-19174.38
2024-01-26178.45
2024-02-02180.55
2024-02-09184.62
2024-02-16184.77
2024-02-23185.60
2024-03-01188.45
2024-03-08187.60
2024-03-15187.25
2024-03-22187.50
2024-03-29185.00
2024-04-05178.25
2024-04-12178.90
2024-04-19181.48
2024-04-26184.68
2024-05-03176.68
2024-05-10176.15
2024-05-17181.05
2024-05-24183.70
2024-05-31181.55
2024-06-07182.18
2024-06-14186.82
2024-06-21187.60
2024-06-28193.50
2024-07-05186.43
2024-07-12182.38
2024-07-19183.10
2024-07-26188.57
2024-08-02184.10
2024-08-09184.25
2024-08-16182.80
2024-08-23182.57
2024-08-30185.85
2024-09-06175.18
2024-09-13177.65
2024-09-20182.48
2024-09-27183.75
2024-10-04187.00
2024-10-11188.60
2024-10-18187.62
2024-10-25189.70
2024-11-01185.93
2024-11-08183.70
2024-11-15182.95
2024-11-22186.77
2024-11-29187.98
2024-12-06187.38
2024-12-13193.65
2024-12-20191.32
2024-12-27193.50
2025-01-03194.05
2025-01-10198.77
2025-01-17196.75
2025-01-24204.77
2025-01-31204.60
2025-02-07200.77
2025-02-14197.75
2025-02-21197.82
2025-02-28197.73
2025-03-07200.27
2025-03-14203.18
2025-03-21206.95
2025-03-28208.82
2025-04-04202.62
2025-04-11202.48
2025-04-18209.82
2025-04-25214.25
2025-05-02211.10
2025-05-09214.68
2025-05-16212.23
2025-05-23215.80
2025-05-30215.48
2025-06-06226.30
2025-06-13225.10
2025-06-20223.02
2025-06-27224.75
2025-07-04214.05
2025-07-11222.20
2025-07-18223.55
2025-07-25226.48
2025-08-01230.12
2025-08-08232.55
2025-08-15236.25
2025-08-22239.95
2025-08-29241.90
2025-09-05235.98
2025-09-12229.98
2025-09-19233.57
2025-09-26231.80
2025-10-03231.02
2025-10-10238.48
2025-10-17240.25
2025-10-24233.75
2025-10-31236.60
2025-11-07221.35
2025-11-14219.15
2025-11-21214.45
2025-11-28215.57
2025-12-05227.15
2025-12-12229.80
2025-12-19230.40
2025-12-26229.82
2026-01-02236.00
2026-01-09233.73
2026-01-16232.15
2026-01-23234.90
2026-01-30235.85
2026-02-06237.75
2026-02-13243.07
2026-02-20246.57
2026-02-27244.00
2026-03-06234.57
2026-03-13230.90
2026-03-20234.05
2026-03-27238.50
2026-04-03246.20
2026-04-10251.77
2026-04-17249.95
2026-04-24248.30
2026-05-01253.00
2026-05-08248.90
2026-05-15253.90
2026-05-22254.55
Feeder Cattle Futures (CME) · COT data through 2026-05-12
MM Net Position
+15,186
Managed money long minus short · 83th pct
MM Week-over-Week
-3,540
Change in managed money net contracts
Open Interest
97,803 cts
Total open interest · 92th pct
Commercial Net
-3,372
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net · 15th pct
Managed money holds +15,186 contracts (83th pct, heavily long). Commercials are net short at -3,372 contracts (15th pct).

Managed money net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Current year in red, prior two years highlighted.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0116.826.4-2.5
Jan 0816.328.7-2.3
Jan 1516.129.4-1.6
Jan 2216.628.91.6
Jan 2916.428.24.7
Feb 0516.228.45.6
Feb 1216.830.17.4
Feb 1918.228.18.2
Feb 2618.028.910.0
Mar 0518.130.211.5
Mar 1217.931.210.3
Mar 1917.834.111.5
Mar 2620.133.48.2
Apr 0220.228.09.4
Apr 0921.125.96.2
Apr 1618.828.14.4
Apr 2317.127.94.9
Apr 3018.729.44.8
May 0715.232.24.1

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01-7.1-9.75.5
Jan 08-6.2-11.46.0
Jan 15-7.7-11.15.5
Jan 22-7.6-11.03.5
Jan 29-9.1-10.72.8
Feb 05-8.0-10.33.1
Feb 12-8.3-11.32.4
Feb 19-8.0-10.12.5
Feb 26-5.4-9.61.5
Mar 05-5.6-9.2-0.3
Mar 12-5.5-9.90.7
Mar 19-5.9-11.70.3
Mar 26-7.8-11.62.8
Apr 02-7.6-9.02.7
Apr 09-8.4-8.24.0
Apr 16-6.9-10.75.0
Apr 23-6.2-9.34.5
Apr 30-6.7-9.64.4
May 07-3.4-11.65.0

Total open interest. Rising OI confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01108.9104.480.4
Jan 08113.3112.481.0
Jan 15117.7114.581.2
Jan 22117.4116.277.4
Jan 29110.0112.168.6
Feb 05107.8110.271.2
Feb 12109.3109.274.3
Feb 19113.9110.376.7
Feb 26116.1113.480.9
Mar 05113.1112.583.8
Mar 12111.3121.183.2
Mar 19107.0120.082.0
Mar 2698.7109.683.7
Apr 02102.4104.876.2
Apr 09101.2100.978.5
Apr 16103.092.778.6
Apr 23100.995.773.9
Apr 3095.399.971.8
May 0797.8107.571.8
DateFeeder Cattle ($/cwt)
2023-01-06182.70
2023-01-13181.25
2023-01-20177.93
2023-01-27183.48
2023-02-03186.10
2023-02-10186.40
2023-02-17186.52
2023-02-24189.07
2023-03-03190.00
2023-03-10191.48
2023-03-17188.85
2023-03-24189.65
2023-03-31200.82
2023-04-07200.62
2023-04-14203.40
2023-04-21203.77
2023-04-28210.98
2023-05-05202.52
2023-05-12205.48
2023-05-19206.27
2023-05-26233.93
2023-06-02241.90
2023-06-09239.00
2023-06-16234.93
2023-06-23233.95
2023-06-30247.57
2023-07-07245.43
2023-07-14246.65
2023-07-21245.93
2023-07-28245.60
2023-08-04249.52
2023-08-11247.75
2023-08-18245.57
2023-08-25247.62
2023-09-01251.85
2023-09-08255.35
2023-09-15257.38
2023-09-22254.10
2023-09-29252.48
2023-10-06248.38
2023-10-13249.88
2023-10-20241.82
2023-10-27236.90
2023-11-03240.60
2023-11-10229.73
2023-11-17228.50
2023-11-24219.32
2023-12-01214.43
2023-12-08215.30
2023-12-15220.90
2023-12-22222.75
2023-12-29222.30
2024-01-05223.12
2024-01-12226.57
2024-01-19230.10
2024-01-26239.70
2024-02-02244.80
2024-02-09247.15
2024-02-16251.02
2024-02-23254.57
2024-03-01252.98
2024-03-08249.20
2024-03-15249.27
2024-03-22249.95
2024-03-29247.75
2024-04-05237.70
2024-04-12237.60
2024-04-19241.32
2024-04-26248.70
2024-05-03243.30
2024-05-10238.80
2024-05-17246.73
2024-05-24260.23
2024-05-31256.40
2024-06-07254.93
2024-06-14261.98
2024-06-21258.38
2024-06-28259.30
2024-07-05261.48
2024-07-12258.65
2024-07-19255.60
2024-07-26259.70
2024-08-02249.65
2024-08-09246.50
2024-08-16242.77
2024-08-23242.57
2024-08-30240.48
2024-09-06234.30
2024-09-13241.90
2024-09-20244.82
2024-09-27247.07
2024-10-04249.62
2024-10-11249.75
2024-10-18248.32
2024-10-25249.62
2024-11-01246.88
2024-11-08245.43
2024-11-15251.10
2024-11-22254.30
2024-11-29259.48
2024-12-06255.82
2024-12-13257.65
2024-12-20255.60
2024-12-27261.38
2025-01-03264.83
2025-01-10272.35
2025-01-17273.50
2025-01-24278.70
2025-01-31275.73
2025-02-07264.90
2025-02-14266.35
2025-02-21267.95
2025-02-28274.98
2025-03-07276.98
2025-03-14281.98
2025-03-21286.48
2025-03-28286.92
2025-04-04279.42
2025-04-11285.17
2025-04-18293.35
2025-04-25290.52
2025-05-02294.95
2025-05-09297.98
2025-05-16296.85
2025-05-23300.38
2025-05-30298.83
2025-06-06310.15
2025-06-13306.42
2025-06-20302.45
2025-06-27307.90
2025-07-04309.50
2025-07-11325.33
2025-07-18324.00
2025-07-25331.38
2025-08-01334.58
2025-08-08339.40
2025-08-15346.15
2025-08-22360.35
2025-08-29364.77
2025-09-05359.83
2025-09-12350.40
2025-09-19359.15
2025-09-26357.00
2025-10-03357.17
2025-10-10375.50
2025-10-17371.95
2025-10-24354.30
2025-10-31338.88
2025-11-07326.40
2025-11-14338.67
2025-11-21314.23
2025-11-28323.98
2025-12-05339.05
2025-12-12339.10
2025-12-19345.60
2025-12-26346.17
2026-01-02356.10
2026-01-09360.73
2026-01-16361.92
2026-01-23364.80
2026-01-30360.27
2026-02-06367.42
2026-02-13366.15
2026-02-20368.02
2026-02-27355.42
2026-03-06355.62
2026-03-13349.48
2026-03-20357.75
2026-03-27361.45
2026-04-03372.90
2026-04-10374.15
2026-04-17371.33
2026-04-24367.62
2026-05-01371.40
2026-05-08367.38
2026-05-15368.67
2026-05-22369.58
Lean Hogs Futures (CME) · COT data through 2026-05-12
MM Net Position
+40,860
Managed money long minus short · 51th pct
MM Week-over-Week
-10,223
Change in managed money net contracts
Open Interest
436,108 cts
Total open interest · 94th pct
Commercial Net
-30,797
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net · 55th pct
Managed money holds +40,860 contracts (51th pct, neutral). Commercials are net short at -30,797 contracts (55th pct).

Managed money net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Current year in red, prior two years highlighted.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0181.997.2-17.6
Jan 0882.6103.6-6.6
Jan 1597.492.2-1.8
Jan 22113.891.92.5
Jan 29128.995.325.0
Feb 05133.3102.631.6
Feb 12116.5114.133.8
Feb 19117.090.548.2
Feb 26124.057.563.1
Mar 05127.755.665.1
Mar 12116.656.763.7
Mar 19101.551.462.9
Mar 2694.255.365.0
Apr 0298.136.376.9
Apr 0987.940.292.7
Apr 1665.658.586.6
Apr 2357.667.692.4
Apr 3051.170.685.4
May 0740.981.165.2

Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01-77.5-97.011.4
Jan 08-76.7-102.62.1
Jan 15-95.0-95.51.0
Jan 22-107.2-97.1-4.3
Jan 29-118.5-99.9-27.8
Feb 05-123.5-104.0-34.1
Feb 12-102.8-111.6-37.7
Feb 19-106.3-89.4-52.8
Feb 26-114.6-63.0-66.3
Mar 05-116.5-59.4-70.2
Mar 12-102.9-57.8-68.9
Mar 19-86.3-54.2-68.1
Mar 26-81.2-56.9-68.4
Apr 02-85.4-43.0-80.4
Apr 09-74.5-44.9-94.6
Apr 16-57.3-59.5-88.8
Apr 23-48.9-65.2-89.1
Apr 30-40.2-65.0-83.0
May 07-30.8-76.9-68.4

Total open interest. Rising OI confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.

Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01405.0407.3305.6
Jan 08408.7405.8284.5
Jan 15442.3411.7295.8
Jan 22473.9410.7299.9
Jan 29495.8420.8333.0
Feb 05505.7439.3335.9
Feb 12484.6432.9324.2
Feb 19477.5397.3320.5
Feb 26490.1407.9344.4
Mar 05488.8372.3361.2
Mar 12470.5374.6361.5
Mar 19452.4379.2366.8
Mar 26443.1387.0375.6
Apr 02441.5398.1402.0
Apr 09444.5366.9446.4
Apr 16414.7352.3404.7
Apr 23424.4365.0407.8
Apr 30429.9363.4410.0
May 07436.1387.0407.6
DateLean Hogs ($/cwt)
2023-01-0680.28
2023-01-1378.65
2023-01-2077.82
2023-01-2775.88
2023-02-0375.03
2023-02-1075.88
2023-02-1785.28
2023-02-2486.03
2023-03-0384.55
2023-03-1087.45
2023-03-1779.88
2023-03-2477.18
2023-03-3175.25
2023-04-0774.15
2023-04-1471.75
2023-04-2177.03
2023-04-2879.65
2023-05-0575.53
2023-05-1276.62
2023-05-1983.03
2023-05-2676.07
2023-06-0286.72
2023-06-0987.88
2023-06-1692.85
2023-06-2391.28
2023-06-3095.65
2023-07-0799.00
2023-07-14101.97
2023-07-21100.68
2023-07-28103.20
2023-08-04101.03
2023-08-11102.10
2023-08-1882.12
2023-08-2579.82
2023-09-0183.05
2023-09-0881.53
2023-09-1583.12
2023-09-2281.53
2023-09-2980.20
2023-10-0682.32
2023-10-1381.93
2023-10-2066.00
2023-10-2770.47
2023-11-0371.75
2023-11-1071.90
2023-11-1770.97
2023-11-2467.57
2023-12-0168.60
2023-12-0868.43
2023-12-1571.90
2023-12-2271.35
2023-12-2967.97
2024-01-0570.00
2024-01-1271.90
2024-01-1970.75
2024-01-2674.93
2024-02-0275.45
2024-02-0973.68
2024-02-1685.22
2024-02-2387.20
2024-03-0188.07
2024-03-0884.38
2024-03-1586.93
2024-03-2284.57
2024-03-2986.62
2024-04-0589.32
2024-04-1290.88
2024-04-1996.22
2024-04-2694.28
2024-05-0392.43
2024-05-1091.72
2024-05-1796.50
2024-05-2494.28
2024-05-3194.35
2024-06-0792.53
2024-06-1491.18
2024-06-2192.05
2024-06-2889.57
2024-07-0589.88
2024-07-1288.70
2024-07-1991.57
2024-07-2693.47
2024-08-0292.20
2024-08-0989.80
2024-08-1675.07
2024-08-2380.55
2024-08-3082.22
2024-09-0679.50
2024-09-1378.45
2024-09-2082.22
2024-09-2782.05
2024-10-0484.03
2024-10-1184.07
2024-10-1877.82
2024-10-2579.68
2024-11-0184.07
2024-11-0880.43
2024-11-1579.50
2024-11-2281.68
2024-11-2982.07
2024-12-0683.30
2024-12-1383.72
2024-12-2085.93
2024-12-2784.15
2025-01-0380.78
2025-01-1082.55
2025-01-1781.12
2025-01-2482.30
2025-01-3184.18
2025-02-0787.25
2025-02-1489.47
2025-02-2187.68
2025-02-2883.68
2025-03-0787.35
2025-03-1486.62
2025-03-2186.12
2025-03-2886.70
2025-04-0487.38
2025-04-1185.43
2025-04-1890.40
2025-04-2592.80
2025-05-0292.95
2025-05-0990.38
2025-05-16100.32
2025-05-2398.30
2025-05-30101.32
2025-06-06102.62
2025-06-13103.70
2025-06-20112.78
2025-06-27113.25
2025-07-04107.97
2025-07-11106.72
2025-07-18106.47
2025-07-25108.70
2025-08-01107.35
2025-08-08108.90
2025-08-1590.10
2025-08-2291.20
2025-08-2995.03
2025-09-0596.03
2025-09-1297.12
2025-09-1997.97
2025-09-26101.50
2025-10-0398.97
2025-10-1097.00
2025-10-1782.38
2025-10-2481.90
2025-10-3181.28
2025-11-0779.40
2025-11-1478.50
2025-11-2177.80
2025-11-2880.60
2025-12-0581.65
2025-12-1283.32
2025-12-1984.50
2025-12-2684.53
2026-01-0284.10
2026-01-0985.30
2026-01-1688.28
2026-01-2388.35
2026-01-3087.25
2026-02-0687.38
2026-02-1386.95
2026-02-2093.68
2026-02-2795.72
2026-03-0695.62
2026-03-1393.45
2026-03-2091.28
2026-03-2790.78
2026-04-0390.35
2026-04-1090.72
2026-04-1793.40
2026-04-2494.30
2026-05-0192.82
2026-05-0890.88
2026-05-1598.75
2026-05-2297.93

Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net. Gold = swap dealer options net (negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net. White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning signals structural conditions for amplified price moves.

DateMM Options ('000)Swap Options ('000)Producer Options ('000)Pressure Rank
2024-05-28+21.4+13.2-32.467th
2024-06-04+21.7+14.1-36.568th
2024-06-11+17.1+21.9-40.270th
2024-06-18+14.2+27.1-41.473th
2024-06-25+12.5+29.1-41.472th
2024-07-02+10.2+30.8-42.373th
2024-07-09+6.1+31.0-41.671th
2024-07-16+3.1+28.0-40.169th
2024-07-23+2.1+30.1-41.272th
2024-07-30+5.6+31.9-45.475th
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