The Positioning Report | US — Soy Complex

Crush & Biofuel Global Crush Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

Market Positioning — Soy Complex

Percentile rankings relative to full available history (2010–present) · Managed Money = hedge funds & CTAs · Commercial = producers, merchants & swap dealers

Crush & Biofuel Pull

Crush pace from USDA NASS vs. WASDE · Oil PV% from CBOT ZL/ZM · Feedstock from EIA biomass-based diesel survey

Crush Pace vs. WASDE

-0.37%

on pace · 10/12 months of 2025/26 · implied 2,645 vs WASDE 2,655 mil bu

Soy Oil Share of Biofuel Feedstock

40.0%

latest 2026-05 · +5.0 pts YoY · soy oil 1,434 MMlb

Three readings on the fuel bid pulling at the soybean. Crush pace is the quantity leg — whether the industry is actually pressing at the rate the current WASDE crush forecast requires. Running ahead of pace means crush demand is tightening the balance sheet faster than the forecast assumes; running behind means the crush line carries air. Read it against its band: early in the marketing year the run-rate estimate is worth little, and a deviation smaller than that month’s historical error is noise, not a signal. Oil PV% is the price leg — what the market will pay for oil relative to meal. EIA feedstock share is the quantity leg — how much soybean oil actually reached fuel, and whether it is holding or ceding ground to waste feedstocks. They can disagree, and the disagreement is the signal: a firm price bid with soy losing feedstock share means the fuel market wants oil while cheaper fats supply it. Crush is a fixed-ratio press — every bushel yields both oil and meal — so a hard pull on oil also floods meal, the read that carries into feed costs on the Livestock page.

The shaded funnel is the historical error of this estimate at each month of the marketing year, so it narrows as the year fills in. Inside the funnel the deviation is noise; orange marks the months it cleared. USDA NASS monthly crushings against the pace the current WASDE crush forecast requires, on the US Sep–Aug marketing year. This is not a proxy: NASS monthly crushings sum to the WASDE Crushings line to within rounding on every complete marketing year, so the actual is the accumulating numerator of the number USDA will eventually print. Latest: -0.37% against a ±0.52% band at 10 months elapsed — on pace.

United States cumulative crush, required pace, deviation and band, 2025/26

Month	Cumulative crushed (mil bu)	Pace required (mil bu)	Deviation (%)	Noise band (±%)
Sep	205.0	199.7	+2.65	3.36
Oct	441.3	434.3	+1.62	1.82
Nov	661.8	662.5	-0.11	1.72
Dec	891.7	897.6	-0.66	1.63
Jan	1,119.6	1,128.2	-0.76	1.58
Feb	1,333.9	1,339.6	-0.43	1.24
Mar	1,565.7	1,572.8	-0.45	0.98
Apr	1,783.2	1,791.1	-0.44	0.66
May	1,996.3	2,011.5	-0.76	0.65
Jun	2,214.1	2,222.4	-0.37	0.52
Jul	—	2,444.2	—	0.29
Aug	—	2,655.0	—	—

Fats, oils & greases (FOG) consumed for U.S. biomass-based diesel (EIA, monthly). Soy oil volume has climbed with the renewable-diesel buildout, yet its share of the feedstock basket has fallen as used cooking oil, tallow and distillers corn oil — cheaper, lower carbon-intensity — take an ever-larger slice. Volume up, share down is the substitution signal.

Biofuel feedstock consumption history

Month	Soy share (%)	Soy oil (MMlb)	Total FOG (MMlb)
2021-01	50.2	683	1,361
2021-02	47.0	553	1,177
2021-03	48.7	749	1,539
2021-04	50.9	700	1,374
2021-05	50.6	786	1,553
2021-06	46.2	680	1,473
2021-07	46.0	808	1,755
2021-08	48.4	823	1,700
2021-09	52.6	779	1,482
2021-10	47.8	832	1,739
2021-11	47.6	818	1,720
2021-12	47.8	938	1,964
2022-01	45.7	791	1,732
2022-02	50.9	758	1,490
2022-03	53.4	919	1,722
2022-04	46.4	842	1,814
2022-05	43.6	856	1,964
2022-06	42.1	810	1,924
2022-07	45.6	956	2,098
2022-08	43.9	925	2,106
2022-09	45.2	932	2,062
2022-10	43.7	906	2,071
2022-11	44.8	943	2,104
2022-12	42.8	886	2,070
2023-01	38.9	941	2,419
2023-02	41.5	934	2,248
2023-03	35.7	952	2,667
2023-04	35.5	927	2,609
2023-05	37.8	1,141	3,017
2023-06	40.0	1,207	3,019
2023-07	44.4	1,273	2,864
2023-08	39.8	1,192	2,993
2023-09	38.8	1,207	3,113
2023-10	36.8	1,062	2,882
2023-11	37.1	1,065	2,873
2023-12	34.6	1,142	3,296
2024-01	32.2	957	2,973
2024-02	30.8	891	2,889
2024-03	34.5	1,029	2,986
2024-04	34.7	1,063	3,061
2024-05	37.2	1,083	2,911
2024-06	36.5	1,270	3,479
2024-07	32.9	1,139	3,466
2024-08	35.3	1,217	3,451
2024-09	35.8	1,076	3,007
2024-10	36.4	1,232	3,389
2024-11	35.8	1,197	3,347
2024-12	34.5	1,166	3,378
2025-01	27.9	654	2,346
2025-02	27.6	576	2,090
2025-03	30.8	832	2,703
2025-04	31.6	829	2,625
2025-05	35.0	1,025	2,931
2025-06	35.8	1,045	2,918
2025-07	37.0	1,108	2,991
2025-08	39.2	1,041	2,659
2025-09	34.8	1,053	3,027
2025-10	33.7	1,006	2,983
2025-11	33.3	930	2,793
2025-12	30.5	859	2,816
2026-01	42.6	978	2,294
2026-02	43.0	1,058	2,459
2026-03	40.3	1,283	3,183
2026-04	36.5	1,224	3,353
2026-05	40.0	1,434	3,585

Global Crush — US & Argentina Pace

USDA NASS & MAGyP actuals vs. WASDE crush forecasts · one methodology, two countries

United States — Crush Pace

-0.37%

on pace · band ±0.52% · 10/12 of 2025/26 · implied 2,645 vs WASDE 2,655 mil bu

Argentina — Crush Pace

+0.53%

on pace · band ±2.16% · 10/12 of 2025/26 · implied 42 vs WASDE 42 MMT

Argentina — Crush Utilisation

~63%

implied 42 of ~67 MMT installed capacity · USDA FAS GAIN AR2025-0020, Nov 2025 (Post estimate)

The two largest soybean crushers, measured the same way. In both countries WASDE's annual crush figure is the national statistical agency's monthly series summed, so each read is the accumulating numerator of the number USDA will print — not a proxy for it. Argentina matters here because it is the world's largest exporter of soybean meal and oil: its crush is the meal supply that decides how hard an oil bid can pull crush anywhere. Read the two bands, not just the two deviations. Argentina's noise band is ±2.16% against the United States' ±0.52% at the same point in the year — Argentine crush swings with drought and with export-tax-driven farmer selling, so the same-sized deviation means considerably less there. Early in a marketing year the Argentine read is close to uninformative. One further piece of context changes how an Argentine shortfall should be read: USDA's Buenos Aires post puts installed crushing capacity at roughly 67 MMT against a crush running near 42, i.e. about 63% utilisation, with “abundant idle capacity” in its own words. Argentina already crushes roughly 85% of its own crop and imports beans from Paraguay on top, so what limits crush is bean availability, margin and the farmer's willingness to price — not plant. A shortfall here is a selling story, not a capacity story, and the plant to crush far more already exists. That figure is an attaché estimate from industry contacts (USDA FAS GAIN AR2025-0020, Nov 2025 (Post estimate)), so treat it as an order of magnitude.

The shaded funnel is the historical error of this estimate at each month of the marketing year, so it narrows as the year fills in. Inside the funnel the deviation is noise; orange marks the months it cleared. MAGyP monthly molienda against the pace WASDE's Domestic Crush forecast requires, on Argentina's Oct–Sep marketing year — a window that was identified rather than assumed: MAGyP's months reconcile to WASDE at 0.06% mean error over 18 years there, against 6.90% for Apr–Mar and 7.83% for Jan–Dec. Note how much wider this funnel is than the US one above. Latest: +0.53% against a ±2.16% band at 10 months elapsed — on pace.

Argentina cumulative crush, required pace, deviation and band, 2025/26

Month	Cumulative crushed (MMT)	Pace required (MMT)	Deviation (%)	Noise band (±%)
Oct	4.0	3.6	+11.40	10.31
Nov	7.5	6.9	+8.70	10.08
Dec	10.7	9.9	+7.52	10.81
Jan	13.4	12.7	+5.68	9.60
Feb	15.4	15.2	+1.26	9.11
Mar	18.6	18.1	+2.77	8.19
Apr	22.1	22.1	+0.20	6.27
May	26.3	26.4	-0.40	5.02
Jun	30.5	30.4	+0.13	3.46
Jul	34.6	34.4	+0.53	2.16
Aug	—	38.1	—	1.17
Sep	—	42.0	—	—

Soybean Meal

CFTC Code 026 · COT data through 2026-09-01

354.80 $/ton

MM Net Position

+158,741

Managed money long minus short

100th pct

MM Gross Long

178,612 cts

Managed money gross long contracts

100th pct

MM Gross Short

19,871 cts

Managed money gross short contracts

36th pct

MM Week-over-Week

+61,705

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

730,588 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

98th pct

Commercial Net

-202,242

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

0th pct

Price WoW Change

+16.60 $/ton

+4.9% · latest 354.80 $/ton

Managed money is Heavily Long (100th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money added 61,705 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 202,242 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (98th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years. Extreme readings — especially multi-year highs or lows — historically coincide with price turning points.

Soybean Meal managed money net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-20.7	-58.6	43.0
Jan 13	-17.1	-63.5	10.5
Jan 20	-38.2	-61.2	-4.1
Jan 27	-31.8	-52.3	-19.0
Feb 03	-21.7	-33.5	-22.1
Feb 10	-14.3	-47.2	-14.6
Feb 17	-1.8	-57.0	-27.6
Feb 24	31.7	-63.2	-30.7
Mar 03	62.1	-85.3	-47.6
Mar 10	80.7	-72.0	-49.5
Mar 17	83.9	-61.0	-50.9
Mar 24	107.9	-84.0	-46.9
Mar 31	99.9	-100.7	-29.8
Apr 07	93.5	-97.6	-42.9
Apr 14	135.7	-69.6	-24.1
Apr 21	120.9	-73.5	-10.5
Apr 28	121.2	-98.2	19.7
May 05	110.9	-103.5	43.6
May 12	116.1	-102.7	88.0
May 19	130.6	-107.5	99.2
May 26	123.0	-93.8	100.9
Jun 02	127.1	-96.7	118.3
Jun 09	52.6	-86.8	100.7
Jun 16	17.5	-107.1	92.9
Jun 23	8.6	-110.1	99.3
Jun 30	1.8	-131.9	87.4
Jul 07	19.0	-131.5	73.5
Jul 14	47.9	-133.0	60.7
Jul 21	75.2	-129.7	26.9
Jul 28	88.7	-133.4	15.3
Aug 04	77.5	-133.6	31.7
Aug 11	71.6	-109.3	42.0
Aug 18	83.0	-85.2	0.8
Aug 25	97.0	-61.7	3.6
Sep 01	158.7	-89.5	5.1

Commercial hedger net position (producers, merchants, and swap dealers combined). Commercials are typically net short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Soybean Meal commercial net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	5.9	27.0	-43.8
Jan 13	-6.1	27.9	-13.9
Jan 20	16.8	26.3	-8.1
Jan 27	-0.3	22.6	6.7
Feb 03	-8.1	0.8	16.1
Feb 10	-19.9	12.1	13.9
Feb 17	-33.8	20.2	25.3
Feb 24	-68.8	30.9	25.6
Mar 03	-87.7	53.5	49.8
Mar 10	-115.6	40.1	44.0
Mar 17	-116.7	26.6	41.7
Mar 24	-149.2	46.9	32.5
Mar 31	-138.9	55.7	14.0
Apr 07	-133.3	51.7	27.8
Apr 14	-173.7	33.6	6.5
Apr 21	-157.3	41.3	1.4
Apr 28	-156.5	61.7	-31.7
May 05	-153.2	61.9	-55.0
May 12	-158.4	61.8	-106.5
May 19	-181.7	64.8	-120.7
May 26	-175.2	53.1	-125.2
Jun 02	-170.2	58.3	-145.0
Jun 09	-91.2	50.5	-119.7
Jun 16	-63.9	78.4	-113.2
Jun 23	-52.7	73.9	-120.1
Jun 30	-50.0	87.9	-103.0
Jul 07	-75.2	90.2	-93.6
Jul 14	-101.1	85.4	-80.5
Jul 21	-127.6	78.4	-43.5
Jul 28	-137.8	90.4	-36.1
Aug 04	-122.2	82.9	-51.1
Aug 11	-115.6	57.1	-61.7
Aug 18	-131.0	40.6	-18.6
Aug 25	-138.4	20.9	-26.3
Sep 01	-202.2	56.4	-31.3

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Soybean Meal managed money gross long by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	66.4	61.6	87.3
Jan 13	71.5	53.1	70.5
Jan 20	70.4	54.0	63.8
Jan 27	74.4	55.1	55.4
Feb 03	73.1	57.8	51.9
Feb 10	71.1	57.2	58.1
Feb 17	74.3	55.3	60.5
Feb 24	90.7	56.2	64.2
Mar 03	109.2	55.1	60.7
Mar 10	115.3	57.6	64.0
Mar 17	124.2	63.5	61.4
Mar 24	136.4	54.7	64.1
Mar 31	132.1	51.3	70.6
Apr 07	125.2	53.1	66.1
Apr 14	156.9	55.8	70.3
Apr 21	145.3	55.5	81.7
Apr 28	151.9	54.8	99.8
May 05	147.0	58.2	112.3
May 12	150.3	60.2	121.6
May 19	157.4	59.1	131.9
May 26	151.2	64.1	135.0
Jun 02	150.8	63.2	146.8
Jun 09	112.9	63.0	131.7
Jun 16	109.4	56.1	121.4
Jun 23	107.8	54.6	128.2
Jun 30	107.7	52.3	129.5
Jul 07	116.0	48.1	128.8
Jul 14	120.0	50.0	120.5
Jul 21	130.1	49.4	106.4
Jul 28	132.2	49.9	98.0
Aug 04	126.7	47.2	103.1
Aug 11	120.5	46.4	103.3
Aug 18	129.2	58.2	84.3
Aug 25	129.6	65.7	89.4
Sep 01	178.6	59.8	90.5

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Soybean Meal managed money gross short by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	87.1	120.2	44.2
Jan 13	88.6	116.7	60.1
Jan 20	108.6	115.3	67.9
Jan 27	106.2	107.4	74.4
Feb 03	94.8	91.3	74.0
Feb 10	85.5	104.5	72.7
Feb 17	76.1	112.3	88.1
Feb 24	59.0	119.4	94.9
Mar 03	47.2	140.4	108.4
Mar 10	34.7	129.6	113.6
Mar 17	40.3	124.5	112.3
Mar 24	28.5	138.8	111.0
Mar 31	32.2	152.0	100.4
Apr 07	31.7	150.8	109.0
Apr 14	21.1	125.4	94.4
Apr 21	24.5	129.0	92.2
Apr 28	30.7	153.1	80.1
May 05	36.0	161.7	68.7
May 12	34.2	162.9	33.6
May 19	26.8	166.5	32.6
May 26	28.2	157.8	34.0
Jun 02	23.8	159.9	28.5
Jun 09	60.3	149.8	31.0
Jun 16	92.0	163.2	28.5
Jun 23	99.2	164.7	28.9
Jun 30	105.8	184.2	42.1
Jul 07	97.0	179.5	55.3
Jul 14	72.1	183.1	59.8
Jul 21	54.9	179.1	79.5
Jul 28	43.6	183.2	82.7
Aug 04	49.2	180.8	71.3
Aug 11	48.9	155.7	61.3
Aug 18	46.1	143.4	83.5
Aug 25	32.5	127.4	85.8
Sep 01	19.9	149.3	85.3

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Soybean Meal total open interest by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	551.2	607.0	489.9
Jan 13	581.4	628.5	515.5
Jan 20	599.2	640.6	547.3
Jan 27	600.3	646.5	566.1
Feb 03	613.3	670.1	564.0
Feb 10	600.9	653.2	578.1
Feb 17	598.7	657.9	597.2
Feb 24	556.9	595.2	598.6
Mar 03	584.4	610.5	541.0
Mar 10	595.1	608.1	540.9
Mar 17	605.5	614.5	535.5
Mar 24	648.3	631.7	549.6
Mar 31	659.2	661.6	544.4
Apr 07	669.1	694.0	558.7
Apr 14	683.7	674.6	547.3
Apr 21	694.3	675.6	545.1
Apr 28	637.9	607.4	543.7
May 05	633.7	633.1	498.9
May 12	651.3	649.7	526.4
May 19	685.6	663.7	534.5
May 26	690.5	657.4	529.6
Jun 02	725.3	668.9	536.6
Jun 09	682.1	671.1	541.5
Jun 16	717.5	722.7	546.5
Jun 23	695.6	683.2	584.4
Jun 30	646.4	703.3	542.2
Jul 07	655.8	725.8	549.7
Jul 14	658.3	755.7	579.5
Jul 21	684.2	761.5	596.2
Jul 28	675.5	740.7	595.4
Aug 04	659.6	752.3	565.0
Aug 11	657.0	758.6	573.8
Aug 18	661.0	755.4	602.4
Aug 25	666.4	677.3	594.5
Sep 01	730.6	669.4	575.3

Nearby futures price (ZM=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Soybean Meal nearby futures price history

Date	Price ($/ton)
2024-01-01	368.60
2024-01-08	351.30
2024-01-15	356.50
2024-01-22	349.00
2024-01-29	356.80
2024-02-05	346.80
2024-02-12	345.60
2024-02-19	331.50
2024-02-26	334.00
2024-03-04	341.30
2024-03-11	334.70
2024-03-18	339.10
2024-03-25	337.70
2024-04-01	333.10
2024-04-08	344.40
2024-04-15	343.70
2024-04-22	340.00
2024-04-29	366.50
2024-05-06	367.00
2024-05-13	368.80
2024-05-20	386.50
2024-05-27	364.70
2024-06-03	360.70
2024-06-10	368.40
2024-06-17	361.80
2024-06-24	360.50
2024-07-01	387.00
2024-07-08	368.50
2024-07-15	336.80
2024-07-22	353.30
2024-07-29	361.50
2024-08-05	326.30
2024-08-12	303.40
2024-08-19	306.30
2024-08-26	311.60
2024-09-02	318.40
2024-09-09	315.40
2024-09-16	317.40
2024-09-23	343.70
2024-09-30	330.50
2024-10-07	316.50
2024-10-14	315.60
2024-10-21	305.80
2024-10-28	295.30
2024-11-04	296.20
2024-11-11	289.60
2024-11-18	289.20
2024-11-25	287.10
2024-12-02	283.80
2024-12-09	284.10
2024-12-16	294.50
2024-12-23	300.90
2024-12-30	299.90
2025-01-06	290.60
2025-01-13	297.20
2025-01-20	304.90
2025-01-27	301.10
2025-02-03	301.40
2025-02-10	295.90
2025-02-17	294.80
2025-02-24	291.70
2025-03-03	296.50
2025-03-10	298.90
2025-03-17	300.30
2025-03-24	293.50
2025-03-31	283.10
2025-04-07	299.60
2025-04-14	295.60
2025-04-21	290.00
2025-04-28	290.20
2025-05-05	287.20
2025-05-12	291.90
2025-05-19	296.20
2025-05-26	296.30
2025-06-02	295.70
2025-06-09	291.90
2025-06-16	284.10
2025-06-23	271.10
2025-06-30	273.80
2025-07-07	267.60
2025-07-14	274.00
2025-07-21	267.80
2025-07-28	267.50
2025-08-04	273.40
2025-08-11	283.40
2025-08-18	296.70
2025-08-25	283.60
2025-09-01	280.50
2025-09-08	288.30
2025-09-15	282.90
2025-09-22	268.80
2025-09-29	270.70
2025-10-06	267.40
2025-10-13	281.00
2025-10-20	294.10
2025-10-27	321.60
2025-11-03	317.10
2025-11-10	322.50
2025-11-17	315.10
2025-11-24	314.40
2025-12-01	304.70
2025-12-08	300.60
2025-12-15	297.60
2025-12-22	303.70
2025-12-29	291.00
2026-01-05	300.00
2026-01-12	290.00
2026-01-19	299.90
2026-01-26	293.60
2026-02-02	303.60
2026-02-09	309.20
2026-02-16	309.80
2026-02-23	315.50
2026-03-02	313.10
2026-03-09	319.90
2026-03-16	328.00
2026-03-23	315.30
2026-03-30	315.20
2026-04-06	331.80
2026-04-13	331.80
2026-04-20	324.30
2026-04-27	320.80
2026-05-04	322.50
2026-05-11	334.30
2026-05-18	331.90
2026-05-25	329.80
2026-06-01	308.50
2026-06-08	301.30
2026-06-15	301.30
2026-06-22	307.00
2026-06-29	307.70
2026-07-06	323.10
2026-07-13	320.20
2026-07-20	331.30
2026-07-27	312.20
2026-08-03	308.10
2026-08-10	308.70
2026-08-17	317.70
2026-08-24	338.20
2026-08-31	354.80

Soybean Oil

CFTC Code 007 · COT data through 2026-09-01

69.15 ¢/lb

MM Net Position

+109,912

Managed money long minus short

97th pct

MM Gross Long

133,775 cts

Managed money gross long contracts

97th pct

MM Gross Short

23,863 cts

Managed money gross short contracts

28th pct

MM Week-over-Week

+21,468

Change in managed money net

Open Interest

723,386 cts

Total open interest (all participants)

95th pct

Commercial Net

-139,183

Prod/merchant + swap dealer net

6th pct

Price WoW Change

-1.44 ¢/lb

-2.0% · latest 69.15 ¢/lb

Managed money is Heavily Long (97th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money added 21,468 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 139,183 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (95th percentile).

Soybean Oil managed money net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	-66.6	-32.0	-50.6
Jan 13	-53.0	7.7	-46.6
Jan 20	-25.3	24.2	-47.0
Jan 27	13.3	39.8	-44.7
Feb 03	9.8	42.2	-54.4
Feb 10	33.1	46.6	-44.2
Feb 17	41.8	53.5	-35.4
Feb 24	63.3	43.1	-52.8
Mar 03	75.5	9.7	-52.3
Mar 10	108.8	-13.9	-62.5
Mar 17	122.4	-27.6	-33.4
Mar 24	122.6	-44.6	-14.7
Mar 31	135.8	-5.8	1.0
Apr 07	150.7	30.1	8.4
Apr 14	148.3	41.0	-4.1
Apr 21	165.4	50.9	-53.3
Apr 28	165.7	63.4	-49.5
May 05	169.1	56.7	-66.9
May 12	162.3	67.4	-65.7
May 19	156.4	57.3	-61.8
May 26	141.4	54.0	-46.5
Jun 02	156.4	32.0	-41.8
Jun 09	131.4	24.8	-57.7
Jun 16	122.9	46.1	-75.8
Jun 23	103.6	44.3	-85.0
Jun 30	92.2	39.4	-108.5
Jul 07	89.2	37.7	-61.9
Jul 14	113.0	43.2	-17.0
Jul 21	125.3	55.3	-16.6
Jul 28	109.9	66.6	-29.6
Aug 04	80.7	54.9	-59.6
Aug 11	80.9	44.4	-79.3
Aug 18	98.2	31.3	-80.3
Aug 25	88.4	30.7	-84.4
Sep 01	109.9	16.1	-68.3

Commercial hedger net position (producers, merchants, and swap dealers combined). Commercials are typically net short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Soybean Oil commercial net position by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	74.5	-1.4	31.8
Jan 13	46.4	-35.2	30.0
Jan 20	18.7	-40.2	28.9
Jan 27	-23.0	-55.3	23.9
Feb 03	-14.4	-60.5	36.9
Feb 10	-44.9	-66.1	33.6
Feb 17	-47.7	-75.1	27.9
Feb 24	-67.9	-57.0	37.7
Mar 03	-78.2	-20.9	39.7
Mar 10	-112.3	3.2	52.7
Mar 17	-133.3	12.2	32.3
Mar 24	-130.1	28.0	17.6
Mar 31	-148.4	-13.4	6.4
Apr 07	-165.9	-50.4	1.7
Apr 14	-154.4	-58.9	13.4
Apr 21	-183.7	-64.2	43.3
Apr 28	-182.9	-79.5	42.0
May 05	-187.6	-73.3	60.1
May 12	-171.8	-80.4	54.1
May 19	-172.8	-71.6	49.8
May 26	-156.1	-68.0	33.4
Jun 02	-167.6	-41.3	24.8
Jun 09	-147.1	-40.0	39.3
Jun 16	-125.4	-70.5	53.9
Jun 23	-111.8	-68.8	54.6
Jun 30	-100.5	-63.8	83.3
Jul 07	-99.5	-62.7	35.7
Jul 14	-131.1	-70.6	-5.2
Jul 21	-142.4	-86.2	0.0
Jul 28	-120.3	-99.8	7.4
Aug 04	-93.7	-78.6	39.5
Aug 11	-99.2	-67.3	54.9
Aug 18	-122.5	-50.5	57.4
Aug 25	-112.8	-51.2	49.2
Sep 01	-139.2	-42.0	32.8

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Soybean Oil managed money gross long by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	55.7	70.8	47.5
Jan 13	66.9	73.0	51.5
Jan 20	68.2	75.9	55.4
Jan 27	85.1	73.8	57.3
Feb 03	83.4	78.8	58.3
Feb 10	103.1	84.0	64.4
Feb 17	118.1	95.0	69.0
Feb 24	136.1	86.6	61.8
Mar 03	141.7	73.8	62.5
Mar 10	152.6	70.0	61.4
Mar 17	151.8	70.8	74.6
Mar 24	148.1	68.6	73.2
Mar 31	156.0	80.2	80.1
Apr 07	166.6	80.9	86.7
Apr 14	165.4	81.8	83.4
Apr 21	185.4	90.6	65.3
Apr 28	187.7	109.4	66.5
May 05	190.0	112.1	65.1
May 12	181.5	116.0	67.8
May 19	177.2	109.8	65.3
May 26	170.0	104.4	61.8
Jun 02	179.6	84.1	62.8
Jun 09	159.4	73.2	58.4
Jun 16	147.2	85.7	55.8
Jun 23	132.1	86.9	60.0
Jun 30	129.2	84.3	57.0
Jul 07	123.1	83.7	62.6
Jul 14	136.1	89.3	57.0
Jul 21	145.5	98.5	56.1
Jul 28	132.7	106.4	53.6
Aug 04	106.8	98.4	55.5
Aug 11	111.5	87.4	50.5
Aug 18	122.1	88.1	54.6
Aug 25	119.6	84.6	59.9
Sep 01	133.8	73.3	59.3

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Soybean Oil managed money gross short by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	122.3	102.8	98.0
Jan 13	119.9	65.3	98.1
Jan 20	93.4	51.7	102.4
Jan 27	71.7	34.1	102.0
Feb 03	73.5	36.6	112.7
Feb 10	70.0	37.5	108.7
Feb 17	76.3	41.5	104.5
Feb 24	72.7	43.5	114.6
Mar 03	66.2	64.1	114.8
Mar 10	43.8	83.9	123.9
Mar 17	29.4	98.4	108.1
Mar 24	25.5	113.3	88.0
Mar 31	20.1	86.0	79.2
Apr 07	16.0	50.8	78.4
Apr 14	17.0	40.8	87.5
Apr 21	20.0	39.7	118.6
Apr 28	22.0	46.1	116.0
May 05	20.9	55.4	132.0
May 12	19.2	48.6	133.5
May 19	20.8	52.5	127.1
May 26	28.6	50.4	108.3
Jun 02	23.2	52.1	104.6
Jun 09	27.9	48.4	116.1
Jun 16	24.3	39.5	131.7
Jun 23	28.5	42.6	145.0
Jun 30	36.9	44.8	165.5
Jul 07	33.9	46.0	124.4
Jul 14	23.0	46.1	74.0
Jul 21	20.2	43.1	72.8
Jul 28	22.8	39.8	83.2
Aug 04	26.1	43.5	115.0
Aug 11	30.5	43.0	129.8
Aug 18	23.9	56.8	134.9
Aug 25	31.2	53.9	144.3
Sep 01	23.9	57.2	127.6

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Soybean Oil total open interest by week

Date	2026 ('000 cts)	2025 ('000 cts)	2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06	701.9	609.7	521.1
Jan 13	731.5	637.3	542.2
Jan 20	749.7	629.0	572.6
Jan 27	764.7	616.0	593.6
Feb 03	778.1	629.5	612.9
Feb 10	841.4	620.9	631.2
Feb 17	864.1	626.1	604.0
Feb 24	853.6	586.9	604.4
Mar 03	877.2	606.1	558.3
Mar 10	915.3	612.6	582.9
Mar 17	923.6	631.8	595.8
Mar 24	935.9	636.6	621.4
Mar 31	937.5	656.7	623.1
Apr 07	923.2	634.7	638.9
Apr 14	892.4	637.4	627.2
Apr 21	946.7	633.1	651.0
Apr 28	841.3	612.4	624.4
May 05	861.8	644.0	592.9
May 12	859.2	669.7	591.9
May 19	871.3	679.6	591.0
May 26	845.5	673.9	588.6
Jun 02	880.0	662.6	597.2
Jun 09	834.4	644.9	615.3
Jun 16	825.4	721.9	615.0
Jun 23	805.2	651.3	631.3
Jun 30	722.1	665.4	618.9
Jul 07	737.8	672.1	609.1
Jul 14	748.0	687.9	594.2
Jul 21	779.2	716.6	611.3
Jul 28	738.9	708.2	634.2
Aug 04	713.5	688.0	608.1
Aug 11	711.7	687.8	601.5
Aug 18	724.4	693.9	615.8
Aug 25	688.2	676.5	634.1
Sep 01	723.4	674.6	583.8

Nearby futures price (ZL=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Soybean Oil nearby futures price history

Date	Price (¢/lb)
2024-01-01	47.17
2024-01-08	47.75
2024-01-15	46.90
2024-01-22	46.93
2024-01-29	44.73
2024-02-05	47.26
2024-02-12	45.59
2024-02-19	44.02
2024-02-26	44.62
2024-03-04	45.60
2024-03-11	49.42
2024-03-18	47.64
2024-03-25	47.95
2024-04-01	48.89
2024-04-08	45.89
2024-04-15	44.38
2024-04-22	44.93
2024-04-29	42.42
2024-05-06	43.81
2024-05-13	45.27
2024-05-20	44.95
2024-05-27	45.52
2024-06-03	43.63
2024-06-10	43.68
2024-06-17	43.94
2024-06-24	43.77
2024-07-01	49.62
2024-07-08	47.55
2024-07-15	46.56
2024-07-22	43.66
2024-07-29	41.71
2024-08-05	42.74
2024-08-12	39.95
2024-08-19	41.47
2024-08-26	43.14
2024-09-02	40.77
2024-09-09	40.69
2024-09-16	42.16
2024-09-23	42.18
2024-09-30	44.04
2024-10-07	43.44
2024-10-14	41.82
2024-10-21	44.15
2024-10-28	46.30
2024-11-04	48.77
2024-11-11	45.35
2024-11-18	41.77
2024-11-25	41.61
2024-12-02	42.78
2024-12-09	42.28
2024-12-16	39.48
2024-12-23	39.52
2024-12-30	39.40
2025-01-06	45.05
2025-01-13	45.69
2025-01-20	45.22
2025-01-27	46.11
2025-02-03	45.98
2025-02-10	46.07
2025-02-17	46.81
2025-02-24	43.53
2025-03-03	42.87
2025-03-10	41.00
2025-03-17	42.01
2025-03-24	45.16
2025-03-31	45.84
2025-04-07	47.35
2025-04-14	47.87
2025-04-21	49.28
2025-04-28	49.08
2025-05-05	48.15
2025-05-12	48.93
2025-05-19	49.35
2025-05-26	46.89
2025-06-02	47.50
2025-06-09	50.61
2025-06-16	54.47
2025-06-23	52.45
2025-06-30	54.70
2025-07-07	54.41
2025-07-14	55.82
2025-07-21	56.49
2025-07-28	54.72
2025-08-04	52.76
2025-08-11	53.18
2025-08-18	54.84
2025-08-25	51.47
2025-09-01	50.56
2025-09-08	51.38
2025-09-15	50.03
2025-09-22	49.60
2025-09-29	49.43
2025-10-06	49.40
2025-10-13	51.13
2025-10-20	50.27
2025-10-27	48.68
2025-11-03	49.68
2025-11-10	50.15
2025-11-17	50.26
2025-11-24	51.76
2025-12-01	51.36
2025-12-08	49.73
2025-12-15	47.90
2025-12-22	48.72
2025-12-29	48.87
2026-01-05	49.26
2026-01-12	52.61
2026-01-19	53.99
2026-01-26	53.51
2026-02-02	55.33
2026-02-09	57.08
2026-02-16	58.92
2026-02-23	61.29
2026-03-02	66.21
2026-03-09	67.34
2026-03-16	65.51
2026-03-23	67.41
2026-03-30	68.94
2026-04-06	67.09
2026-04-13	68.16
2026-04-20	71.91
2026-04-27	76.65
2026-05-04	75.26
2026-05-11	73.88
2026-05-18	73.98
2026-05-25	77.72
2026-06-01	74.12
2026-06-08	74.28
2026-06-15	69.69
2026-06-22	71.30
2026-06-29	66.95
2026-07-06	70.86
2026-07-13	74.81
2026-07-20	74.33
2026-07-27	67.12
2026-08-03	68.16
2026-08-10	69.05
2026-08-17	69.35
2026-08-24	70.59
2026-08-31	69.15

The Positioning Report — Soy Complex — September 04, 2026 Data through: COT: 2026-09-01 · Biofuel feedstock: 2026-05 · Oil PV% (futures): 2026-09-04 · NASS crushings: Jun (10/12 of MY 2025/26) Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/positioning_grains_livestock_a15fe364.html MANAGED MONEY POSITIONING: Soybean Meal +158,741 cts 100th pct heavily long Soybean Oil +109,912 cts 97th pct heavily long CRUSH PACE / OIL DEMAND / BIOFUEL PULL: Crush pace vs WASDE (2025/26)-0.37% 10/12 months on pace — implied 2645 vs WASDE 2655 mil bu; noise band ±0.52% at this point in the year; deviation is inside the band Argentine crush pace vs WASDE (2025/26)+0.53% 10/12 months on pace — implied 42.2 vs WASDE 42.0 MMT; noise band ±2.16% (about 4x the US band — Argentine crush is a noisier series); deviation is inside the band Argentine crush utilisation~63% implied 42.2 of ~67 MMT installed capacity (USDA FAS GAIN AR2025-0020, Nov 2025 (Post estimate)) — crush is constrained by bean supply and farmer selling, not by plant Oil PV% (crush value) 49.4% 87th pct oil share elevated vs history Soy feedstock share 40.0% +5.0 pts YoY Soy oil into biofuel 1,434 MMlb 747 BD / 687 RD