Softs — COT Positioning
CFTC Disaggregated Commitments of Traders · Combined Futures & Options
Week of May 22, 2026 Sugar · Cocoa · Frozen OJ
Data: CFTC weekly release
Market Positioning — Softs
Percentile rankings relative to full available history (2010–present) · Managed Money = hedge funds & CTAs · Commercial = producers, merchants & swap dealers
Sugar No. 11
CFTC Code 080732 · COT data through 2026-05-19
14.68 ¢/lb
MM Net Position
-84,037
Managed money long minus short
15th pct
MM Gross Long
173,711 cts
Managed money gross long contracts
69th pct
MM Gross Short
257,748 cts
Managed money gross short contracts
92th pct
MM Week-over-Week
+16,419
Change in managed money net
Open Interest
1,187,801 cts
Total open interest (all participants)
89th pct
Commercial Net
+38,947
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net
85th pct
Price WoW Change
-0.12 ¢/lb
-0.8%  ·  latest 14.68 ¢/lb
Managed money is Heavily Short (15th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money added 16,419 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net long position of 38,947 contracts. Open interest is at an elevated level historically (89th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years. Extreme readings — especially multi-year highs or lows — historically coincide with price turning points.

Sugar No. 11 managed money net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06-142.947.518.2
Jan 13-139.4-0.515.9
Jan 20-148.8-51.714.8
Jan 27-139.2-49.528.9
Feb 03-187.4-53.143.8
Feb 10-211.8-45.255.1
Feb 17-241.8-10.960.0
Feb 24-241.151.356.9
Mar 03-248.334.970.6
Mar 10-211.118.345.5
Mar 17-204.766.252.2
Mar 24-76.891.355.5
Mar 31-49.696.168.5
Apr 07-65.394.889.2
Apr 14-142.350.478.4
Apr 21-189.645.934.9
Apr 28-187.334.511.7
May 05-114.111.30.0
May 12-100.520.4-9.8
May 19-84.018.8-19.1

Commercial hedger net position (producers, merchants, and swap dealers combined). Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Sugar No. 11 commercial net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06142.0-39.6-61.9
Jan 13154.017.3-54.4
Jan 20165.865.7-61.0
Jan 27148.254.0-77.0
Feb 03210.954.5-85.3
Feb 10231.142.6-89.1
Feb 17248.616.1-99.3
Feb 24244.4-50.1-76.6
Mar 03235.4-16.5-93.3
Mar 10189.1-6.8-55.9
Mar 17178.9-51.3-70.1
Mar 2436.6-70.1-76.5
Mar 3113.4-67.0-103.1
Apr 0735.9-47.3-120.1
Apr 14109.7-21.7-91.6
Apr 21144.6-20.2-28.7
Apr 28123.8-18.1-14.5
May 0552.4-2.2-3.8
May 1253.0-19.9-6.3
May 1938.9-7.814.8

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Sugar No. 11 managed money gross long by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06105.9151.293.2
Jan 13104.9134.489.5
Jan 20104.6122.987.5
Jan 27113.8121.093.5
Feb 03113.5118.2100.0
Feb 10122.8124.2108.8
Feb 17127.6127.7107.6
Feb 24133.4136.8111.0
Mar 03139.6124.0115.1
Mar 10141.9116.0112.5
Mar 17131.7135.5111.1
Mar 24149.4161.4112.0
Mar 31136.8167.6122.0
Apr 07129.6156.3135.6
Apr 14117.6140.7138.0
Apr 21118.5137.3131.3
Apr 28132.3133.2132.6
May 05171.3129.5130.0
May 12164.1134.3128.8
May 19173.7132.5129.1

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Sugar No. 11 managed money gross short by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06248.8103.875.0
Jan 13244.3134.973.6
Jan 20253.4174.672.7
Jan 27253.0170.564.6
Feb 03300.9171.356.2
Feb 10334.6169.453.8
Feb 17369.3138.647.6
Feb 24374.585.454.1
Mar 03387.989.044.5
Mar 10353.097.767.0
Mar 17336.469.459.0
Mar 24226.270.156.5
Mar 31186.471.553.5
Apr 07194.961.546.5
Apr 14260.090.359.6
Apr 21308.091.496.4
Apr 28319.798.7121.0
May 05285.4118.2130.0
May 12264.6113.9138.6
May 19257.7113.7148.1

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Sugar No. 11 total open interest by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 061,101.81,096.41,116.9
Jan 131,130.91,147.11,106.5
Jan 201,144.91,151.61,080.5
Jan 271,179.51,166.41,101.4
Feb 031,243.61,176.41,133.1
Feb 101,288.01,182.41,158.2
Feb 171,247.41,097.51,154.6
Feb 241,203.51,089.21,007.2
Mar 031,204.61,018.3991.5
Mar 101,203.31,005.81,018.6
Mar 171,173.31,036.2997.6
Mar 241,155.01,030.81,006.2
Mar 311,133.91,027.01,010.8
Apr 071,120.61,002.21,016.9
Apr 141,146.2962.61,006.6
Apr 211,159.0942.9958.5
Apr 281,153.4936.3975.9
May 051,191.8928.1983.1
May 121,184.0925.9977.9
May 191,187.8933.5991.7

Nearby futures price (SB=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Cocoa
CFTC Code 073732 · COT data through 2026-05-19
3,886.00 $/mt
MM Net Position
-16,166
Managed money long minus short
12th pct
MM Gross Long
18,877 cts
Managed money gross long contracts
3th pct
MM Gross Short
35,043 cts
Managed money gross short contracts
62th pct
MM Week-over-Week
-2,197
Change in managed money net
Open Interest
246,811 cts
Total open interest (all participants)
46th pct
Commercial Net
+19,954
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net
96th pct
Price WoW Change
-116.00 $/mt
-2.9%  ·  latest 3,886.00 $/mt
Managed money is Heavily Short (12th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 2,197 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net long position of 19,954 contracts. Open interest is near historical average levels (46th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years. Extreme readings — especially multi-year highs or lows — historically coincide with price turning points.

Cocoa managed money net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06-1.937.562.9
Jan 13-8.937.259.1
Jan 20-13.638.063.7
Jan 27-12.736.270.7
Feb 03-13.533.264.1
Feb 10-15.127.358.8
Feb 17-13.827.546.5
Feb 24-10.016.942.8
Mar 03-7.914.832.3
Mar 10-15.213.932.0
Mar 17-11.212.433.7
Mar 24-12.712.726.8
Mar 31-14.515.821.9
Apr 07-16.415.819.7
Apr 14-18.111.619.7
Apr 21-16.413.016.1
Apr 28-19.914.513.9
May 05-16.814.113.7
May 12-14.018.514.4
May 19-16.222.415.0

Commercial hedger net position (producers, merchants, and swap dealers combined). Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Cocoa commercial net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06-1.7-40.0-60.9
Jan 1313.5-40.2-55.8
Jan 2020.2-41.4-65.4
Jan 2717.5-38.9-72.1
Feb 0315.7-35.7-68.1
Feb 1016.8-28.1-62.3
Feb 1715.4-29.4-48.0
Feb 2410.8-18.6-43.3
Mar 0315.8-16.3-39.6
Mar 1020.3-15.2-37.8
Mar 1719.8-13.2-40.9
Mar 2421.6-14.9-33.9
Mar 3121.3-15.8-32.6
Apr 0724.9-18.7-30.4
Apr 1425.4-14.5-28.9
Apr 2122.1-16.1-28.3
Apr 2826.4-18.8-25.9
May 0523.1-18.7-20.7
May 1217.1-24.1-20.7
May 1920.0-25.1-20.2

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Cocoa managed money gross long by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0625.944.196.2
Jan 1319.543.292.8
Jan 2018.643.898.9
Jan 2718.841.9106.9
Feb 0319.938.798.6
Feb 1019.132.592.2
Feb 1720.332.673.8
Feb 2424.922.069.8
Mar 0328.319.456.9
Mar 1024.418.055.9
Mar 1725.217.956.8
Mar 2425.917.549.1
Mar 3125.920.142.9
Apr 0726.219.238.1
Apr 1426.215.137.1
Apr 2127.017.333.7
Apr 2826.019.030.4
May 0525.318.829.0
May 1221.923.426.7
May 1918.928.927.1

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Cocoa managed money gross short by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0627.96.533.2
Jan 1328.46.033.6
Jan 2032.25.835.2
Jan 2731.55.636.2
Feb 0333.45.434.5
Feb 1034.25.233.4
Feb 1734.15.127.3
Feb 2434.95.127.0
Mar 0336.24.724.6
Mar 1039.54.123.9
Mar 1736.45.523.1
Mar 2438.64.722.3
Mar 3140.44.321.0
Apr 0742.53.418.4
Apr 1444.33.517.4
Apr 2143.44.317.5
Apr 2845.94.516.4
May 0542.14.715.3
May 1235.94.912.4
May 1935.06.512.1

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Cocoa total open interest by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06162.8178.6455.3
Jan 13176.9174.6455.1
Jan 20199.1175.2476.4
Jan 27214.4173.6492.5
Feb 03229.5176.0494.2
Feb 10239.6150.8455.7
Feb 17215.3146.7424.7
Feb 24241.9141.3407.3
Mar 03255.4134.0396.2
Mar 10254.3136.4369.8
Mar 17246.2137.1374.4
Mar 24251.5136.0382.9
Mar 31259.3142.3383.9
Apr 07263.8122.3335.2
Apr 14234.4116.3296.8
Apr 21234.0115.4286.0
Apr 28237.7117.6288.0
May 05253.2117.7268.3
May 12251.4126.3261.7
May 19246.8138.8253.3

Nearby futures price (CC=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net (spec directional bets via options). Gold = swap dealer options net (dealer intermediation; negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net (negative = producers bought puts → dealer sold puts). White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank vs. full history. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning = structural conditions for amplified price moves.

EUDR Supply Chain Risk — Cocoa Origins
Deforestation pressure index (0–100) · GFW GLAD alerts + Trase supply chain data · EU Deforestation Regulation compliance reminder
Côte d'Ivoire
100
Critical
GFW alerts: 16,635,933 ha · Updated 2026-05-03
Ghana
100
Critical
GFW alerts: 17,695,314 ha · Updated 2026-05-03

EUDR requires supply chain due diligence for cocoa entering EU markets from 2025. Risk scores reflect regional land-use pressure — not specific supplier compliance. Ecuador produces Arriba Nacional fine-flavor cacao and is an increasingly significant global exporter subject to EUDR compliance. This is a market awareness note, not a trading signal.

Frozen OJ
CFTC Code 040701 · COT data through 2026-05-19
166.80 ¢/lb
MM Net Position
+500
Managed money long minus short
37th pct
MM Gross Long
2,533 cts
Managed money gross long contracts
46th pct
MM Gross Short
2,033 cts
Managed money gross short contracts
72th pct
MM Week-over-Week
-639
Change in managed money net
Open Interest
9,050 cts
Total open interest (all participants)
1th pct
Commercial Net
-1,337
Prod/merchant + swap dealer net
71th pct
Price WoW Change
+2.35 ¢/lb
+1.4%  ·  latest 166.80 ¢/lb
Managed money is Moderately Short (37th percentile) relative to the full history of this market. Managed money reduced 639 net contracts week-over-week. Commercial hedgers hold a net short position of 1,337 contracts. Open interest is at a depressed level historically (1th percentile).

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years. Extreme readings — especially multi-year highs or lows — historically coincide with price turning points.

Frozen OJ managed money net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06-2.85.90.9
Jan 13-1.75.80.5
Jan 20-1.55.50.1
Jan 27-0.85.5-0.0
Feb 03-0.05.30.1
Feb 10-0.44.11.1
Feb 17-0.53.21.2
Feb 24-0.22.61.5
Mar 030.12.21.8
Mar 100.32.01.5
Mar 170.91.51.4
Mar 240.61.41.2
Mar 310.71.31.3
Apr 071.21.11.5
Apr 141.71.11.4
Apr 211.21.01.4
Apr 280.60.81.6
May 050.60.71.5
May 121.10.31.5
May 190.50.42.6

Commercial hedger net position (producers, merchants, and swap dealers combined). Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.

Frozen OJ commercial net position by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 060.8-8.4-0.7
Jan 13-0.4-7.8-0.4
Jan 20-0.3-7.7-0.2
Jan 27-1.5-7.6-0.1
Feb 03-2.2-6.6-1.1
Feb 10-1.7-5.5-2.6
Feb 17-1.1-4.6-1.9
Feb 24-1.5-4.1-2.5
Mar 03-1.5-4.1-2.3
Mar 10-1.9-3.6-2.3
Mar 17-2.6-3.4-1.9
Mar 24-2.0-3.3-1.8
Mar 31-2.0-3.4-2.3
Apr 07-2.6-3.1-2.5
Apr 14-3.5-3.1-2.2
Apr 21-2.6-2.9-2.7
Apr 28-1.8-2.4-2.8
May 05-1.9-2.3-3.2
May 12-2.7-2.0-3.4
May 19-1.3-2.3-5.7

Managed money gross long contracts by week of year. Elevated gross longs signal crowded positioning and potential liquidation pressure if sentiment shifts.

Frozen OJ managed money gross long by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 061.75.92.0
Jan 131.55.91.8
Jan 201.75.51.5
Jan 271.85.51.5
Feb 031.75.31.4
Feb 101.84.32.0
Feb 171.73.62.1
Feb 241.93.62.2
Mar 032.13.22.7
Mar 102.33.12.5
Mar 172.72.82.6
Mar 242.52.72.6
Mar 312.52.62.8
Apr 072.52.63.0
Apr 142.62.22.9
Apr 212.41.92.8
Apr 282.31.92.8
May 052.21.92.6
May 122.82.02.6
May 192.52.03.2

Managed money gross short contracts by week of year. Elevated gross shorts represent potential short-covering fuel — a catalyst can force rapid buybacks and amplify a rally.

Frozen OJ managed money gross short by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 064.40.11.2
Jan 133.20.11.2
Jan 203.20.01.4
Jan 272.60.11.5
Feb 031.70.11.3
Feb 102.20.20.9
Feb 172.20.40.9
Feb 242.10.90.7
Mar 032.01.00.9
Mar 102.01.11.0
Mar 171.81.31.2
Mar 241.91.31.4
Mar 311.81.31.4
Apr 071.31.51.4
Apr 141.01.11.5
Apr 211.20.91.5
Apr 281.71.11.2
May 051.61.21.1
May 121.61.61.1
May 192.01.60.6

Total open interest across all participant categories. Rising OI with a directional move confirms the trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation rather than new conviction.

Frozen OJ total open interest by week
Date2026 ('000 cts)2025 ('000 cts)2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 0611.014.311.8
Jan 1310.614.412.9
Jan 2010.414.313.1
Jan 2710.214.312.5
Feb 0310.114.711.9
Feb 1010.816.712.1
Feb 1710.017.112.7
Feb 248.816.212.4
Mar 039.016.212.3
Mar 109.016.411.6
Mar 179.016.611.4
Mar 249.516.011.4
Mar 319.116.111.4
Apr 079.016.611.4
Apr 148.915.511.4
Apr 218.112.511.9
Apr 288.612.510.1
May 058.312.510.2
May 128.812.810.9
May 199.112.313.5

Nearby futures price (OJ=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.

Options-only open interest by trader category (futures-and-options combined minus futures-only). Teal = managed money options net (spec directional bets via options). Gold = swap dealer options net (dealer intermediation; negative = dealer short gamma). Red = producer/commercial options net (negative = producers bought puts → dealer sold puts). White dotted = Structural Hedging Pressure percentile rank vs. full history. Elevated pressure + reversing MM positioning = structural conditions for amplified price moves.

The Positioning Report — Softs — May 22, 2026 Data through: COT: May 24, 2026 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/positioning_softs_bf1812d5.html MANAGED MONEY POSITIONING: Sugar No. 11 -84,037 cts 15th pct heavily short Cocoa -16,166 cts 12th pct heavily short Frozen OJ +500 cts 37th pct neutral