Grain & Livestock Pressure Index

Grain Pressure Score

Moderate

Reading

Score 0–100. Above 65 = elevated supply chain stress (bearish for nearby prices, bullish for deferred). Components (equally weighted): dollar YoY trend, diesel price, barge logistics, corn and soybean stocks vs. 5-year average. Fertilizer and old-crop squeeze risk are tracked below but not part of the composite.

Urea Price

$400.0/mt

World Bank Pink Sheet · 2026-07

Broad Dollar

118.9

FRED DTWEXBGS · 2026-08-14

Barge Rate

212% of tariff

USDA AMS · 2026-08-21

Corn vs 5yr

+19.2%

FIRST OF JUN 2026

Soy vs 5yr

+17.6%

FIRST OF JUN 2026

World Bank Pink Sheet monthly. Latest (2026-07): DAP $781.3/mt, Urea $400.0/mt, Potash $396.5/mt. Henry Hub (right axis) drives ammonia/urea production costs — watch for gas price spikes 60–90 days before fertilizer price moves.

USDA AMS barge rate as % of tariff (left). USGS Memphis discharge in cfs (right, dotted). Latest barge: 212% of tariff. Memphis discharge: 406,333 cfs (navigable). Draft restrictions begin below ~200,000 cfs. High barge rates signal export cost pressure.

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-06): Corn stocks +19.2% vs 5yr avg (above average).

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-06): Soybeans stocks +17.6% vs 5yr avg (above average).

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-06): Wheat stocks +26.4% vs 5yr avg (above average).

FRED Nominal Broad Dollar Index (left) — strong dollar suppresses commodity exports. EIA on-highway diesel (right, dotted) — proxy for transport + farming cost pressure. Latest: dollar 118.9, diesel $5.45/gal.

USDA NASS quarterly grain stocks ranked within 10-year history for same reference period. Lower percentile = tighter supply = elevated old-crop squeeze risk. Latest: Corn FIRST OF DEC 2025 → 100th pct → squeeze risk low. Soy → 90th pct → squeeze risk low.

Livestock Pressure Score

Elevated

Reading

Score 0–100. Above 65 = elevated supply pressure: tightening herd, negative feedlot margins, below-average cold storage and slaughter pace — structural support for prices 4–6 months forward. Components: cattle 1:1:2 feeding margin, beef cold storage vs. 5yr, slaughter pace vs. 5yr.

Cattle 1:1:2

$-121.37/cwt

Live − Feeder − 2×Corn · 2026-08-21

Hog Margin

$+50.48/cwt

Hog − 3×Corn − SBM · 2026-08-21

Beef vs 5yr

-9.5%

Cold storage · END OF JUL 2026

Cattle slaughter

-16.9%

vs 5yr same week · 2026-07-31

Cattle 1:1:2: live cattle revenue − feeder cattle − 2 bu corn. Hog: lean hog − 3 bu corn − SBM (1 ton/20 cwt). Latest: cattle $-121.37/cwt, hogs $+50.48/cwt. Sustained negative cattle margins reduce feedlot placements → supply tightens 4–6 months forward.

USDA NASS monthly frozen stocks. Latest (2026-07): beef -9.5% vs 5yr avg, pork -4.3% vs 5yr avg. Below average = tighter physical supply, supporting nearby futures.

USDA NASS weekly federally inspected slaughter. Latest (2026-07-31): cattle -16.9% vs 5yr, hogs -3.5% vs 5yr. Persistent below-average slaughter = herd contraction = tighter future supply.