SoftSignal Research
Grain & Livestock Pressure Index
Supply-Chain Stress Monitor · Corn · Soybeans · Wheat · Cattle · Hogs
Week of Oct 02, 2026 Grain: 54 (Moderate)  ·  Livestock: 79 (Elevated)
Data: USDA NASS · World Bank · USGS · EIA · FRED
Grain Pressure 54 — Moderate
|
Livestock Pressure 79 — Elevated
|
Cattle 1:1:2 $-126/cwt
|
Corn vs 5yr +43.8%
Grain Pressure Index
Fertilizer · River & Barge Logistics · Storage · Macro · Squeeze Risk
Grain Pressure Score
54
Moderate
Reading
Score 0–100. Above 65 = elevated supply chain stress (bearish for nearby prices, bullish for deferred). Components (equally weighted): dollar YoY trend, diesel price, barge logistics, corn and soybean stocks vs. 5-year average. Fertilizer and old-crop squeeze risk are tracked below but not part of the composite.
Urea Price
$407.5/mt
World Bank Pink Sheet · 2026-09
Broad Dollar
120.3
FRED DTWEXBGS · 2026-09-25
Barge Rate
248% of tariff
USDA AMS · 2026-10-02
Corn vs 5yr
+43.8%
FIRST OF SEP 2026
Soy vs 5yr
+7.7%
FIRST OF SEP 2026

World Bank Pink Sheet monthly. Latest (2026-09): DAP $800.6/mt, Urea $407.5/mt, Potash $367.5/mt. Henry Hub (right axis) drives ammonia/urea production costs — watch for gas price spikes 60–90 days before fertilizer price moves.

USDA AMS barge rate as % of tariff (left). USGS Memphis discharge in cfs (right, dotted). Latest barge: 248% of tariff. Memphis discharge: 431,000 cfs (navigable). Draft restrictions begin below ~200,000 cfs. High barge rates signal export cost pressure.

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-09): Corn stocks +43.8% vs 5yr avg (above average).

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-09): Soybeans stocks +7.7% vs 5yr avg (above average).

USDA NASS Grain Stocks quarterly. Latest (2026-09): Wheat stocks -2.3% vs 5yr avg (above average).

FRED Nominal Broad Dollar Index (left) — strong dollar suppresses commodity exports. EIA on-highway diesel (right, dotted) — proxy for transport + farming cost pressure. Latest: dollar 120.3, diesel $6.38/gal.

USDA NASS quarterly grain stocks ranked within 10-year history for same reference period. Lower percentile = tighter supply = elevated old-crop squeeze risk. Latest: Corn FIRST OF SEP 2026 → 70th pct → squeeze risk low. Soy → 50th pct → squeeze risk moderate.

Livestock Pressure Index
Feeding Margins · Cold Storage · Weekly Slaughter Pace
Livestock Pressure Score
79
Elevated
Reading
Score 0–100. Above 65 = elevated supply pressure: tightening herd, negative feedlot margins, below-average cold storage and slaughter pace — structural support for prices 4–6 months forward. Components: cattle 1:1:2 feeding margin, beef cold storage vs. 5yr, slaughter pace vs. 5yr.
Cattle 1:1:2
$-125.73/cwt
Live − Feeder − 2×Corn · 2026-10-02
Hog Margin
$+45.71/cwt
Hog − 3×Corn − SBM · 2026-10-02
Beef vs 5yr
-3.0%
Cold storage · END OF AUG 2026
Cattle slaughter
-15.5%
vs 5yr same week · 2026-09-11

Cattle 1:1:2: live cattle revenue − feeder cattle − 2 bu corn. Hog: lean hog − 3 bu corn − SBM (1 ton/20 cwt). Latest: cattle $-125.73/cwt, hogs $+45.71/cwt. Sustained negative cattle margins reduce feedlot placements → supply tightens 4–6 months forward.

USDA NASS monthly frozen stocks. Latest (2026-08): beef -3.0% vs 5yr avg, pork -5.6% vs 5yr avg. Below average = tighter physical supply, supporting nearby futures.

USDA NASS weekly federally inspected slaughter. Latest (2026-09-11): cattle -15.5% vs 5yr, hogs -1.8% vs 5yr. Persistent below-average slaughter = herd contraction = tighter future supply.

Grain & Livestock Pressure Index · SoftSignal LLC
Week of Oct 02, 2026
SoftSignal Research ↗
Data sources: USDA NASS, World Bank, USGS, EIA, FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), USDA AMS. All data subject to revision by source agencies. This report is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security or futures contract, or a solicitation to engage in any trading strategy. SoftSignal, LLC is not a registered investment adviser, commodity trading adviser, or broker-dealer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Commodity markets involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider your own financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial adviser before making any investment decisions. Invest at your own risk. SoftSignal, LLC and its affiliates disclaim any liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential losses or damages arising from the use of, or reliance on, the information contained in this report. All data is sourced from third parties (USDA, CFTC, CME, etc.) and while we strive for accuracy, we make no warranties regarding its completeness, timeliness, or reliability. For more information, visit www.getsoftsignal.com. © SoftSignal, LLC. All rights reserved.