Coffee Market Intelligence — RC Robusta
SoftSignal Research — https://www.getsoftsignal.com
Report date: Week of May 22, 2026
Data as of: COT 05/19/2026 | Weather through May Dkd 2, 2026
RC Front-Month Price: 3456 $/t

HTML Report: https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/robusta_coffee_report_8b023e3a.html

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AT A GLANCE

RC Front-Month Price         : 3456 $/t
Managed Money Net Position   : +11,097 lots (49th percentile - Neutral)
Commercial Net Position      : -9,348 lots (48th percentile)
Open Interest                : 109,923 lots (15th percentile)

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COT POSITIONING — LAST 8 WEEKS

| Date       | MM Net  | MM Pct | Comm Net | Open Interest |
| ---------- | ------- | ------ | -------- | ------------- |
| 03/31/2026 | -617    | 36th   | +6,424   | 111,720       |
| 04/07/2026 | +317    | 38th   | +6,961   | 112,659       |
| 04/14/2026 | -393    | 37th   | +6,107   | 115,121       |
| 04/21/2026 | +2,545  | 40th   | +2,755   | 104,499       |
| 04/28/2026 | +12,215 | 51th   | -8,717   | 104,338       |
| 05/05/2026 | +8,922  | 46th   | -7,975   | 103,577       |
| 05/12/2026 | +13,709 | 53th   | -13,323  | 109,080       |
| 05/19/2026 | +11,097 | 49th   | -9,348   | 109,923       |

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COT MARKET ANALYSIS

Managed money is neutral (49th percentile vs. full ICE EU history since 2011) , net long 11,097 lots. Note: unlike KC Arabica where commercials reliably run net-short hedges, robusta commercials include active traders who can sit on either side — commercial net position (-9,348 lots, 48th pct) should be read in trend context rather than as a contrarian extreme.

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WEATHER — CROP WATER STRESS (CWSI) — May Dkd 2

| Region            | CWSI Dev | Condition                      |
| ----------------- | -------- | ------------------------------ |
| Vietnam           | -1.00    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |
| Brazil Robusta    | -0.67    | Below Normal — Good Conditions |
| Indonesia Robusta | -0.47    | Near Normal                    |

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WEATHER ANALYSIS

Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Vietnam : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.00) · Brazil Robusta : Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.67) · Indonesia Robusta : Near Normal (-0.47). Values below zero = less stress than average — favorable for yield development.

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KEY MARKET INSIGHTS

• Managed Money is neutral (49th percentile), net +11,097 lots.
• Commercial hedgers: 48th percentile, -9,348 lots. Note: robusta commercials include active traders who may sit on either side — read in trend context.
• Vietnam CWSI -1.00 — Below Normal — Good Conditions.
• Brazil Robusta CWSI -0.67 — Below Normal — Good Conditions.
• Indonesia Robusta CWSI -0.47 — Near Normal.

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ORIGIN DEFORESTATION RISK INDEX (0-100)

| Origin    | Risk Score | Level    |
| --------- | ---------- | -------- |
| Vietnam   | 73.3 / 100 | High     |
| Brazil    | 75.6 / 100 | High     |
| Indonesia | 87.7 / 100 | Critical |

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DATA SOURCES

• ICE EU Disaggregated COT (Robusta Coffee Futures, Liffe)
• USDA FAS PSD
• ERA5-Land / FAO CWSI Model
• Global Forest Watch (GLAD alerts)

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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