SoftSignal Research
WASDE Grain Report
WASDE #675 · Corn · Wheat · Soybeans · Cotton
September 2026 USDA OCE/WAOB

Corn

WASDE #675 | 2026/27 Marketing Year | vs. WASDE #674
World Ending Stocks: 272.10 MMT — near average 50th percentile
Ex-China Stocks-to-Use (STU): 8.9% — historically tight ex-China — structurally supportive for prices 20th percentile
US Acre Sensitivity: 1M planted acres = 163M bu — 10.4% of US ending stocks, 3.7 days of use91% harvested
vs. WASDE #674: world ending stocks cut by 2.56 MMT (274.66 → 272.10) ▼ -2.56

Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)

Item World United States World MoM
Beg. Stocks301.3848.82▲ +2.55
Production1,290.95401.33▼ -7.93
Imports203.110.64▼ -0.62
Dom. Total Use1,320.23327.80▼ -2.82
Exports210.0883.19▼ -0.40
Ending Stocks272.1039.79▼ -2.56
Stocks-to-Use %17.8%9.7%
Ex-China STU %8.9% 20th pct—

Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2026/27). Source: USDA WASDE.

Corn ending stocks by year
Marketing YearWorld (MMT)US (MMT)
07/08129.8641.26
08/09149.0742.50
09/10144.1143.38
10/11128.1928.64
11/12132.8225.12
12/13135.4320.86
13/14175.0331.29
14/15209.8243.97
15/16213.9344.12
16/17350.7558.25
17/18341.6054.37
18/19321.0756.41
19/20306.3748.76
20/21292.8331.36
21/22310.7934.98
22/23304.7734.55
23/24315.2544.79
24/25295.7039.40
25/26301.3848.82
26/27272.1039.79

World (teal) and Ex-China (gold) stocks-to-use. China holds non-tradeable domestic reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Corn stocks-to-use by year
Marketing YearWorld STU (%)Ex-China STU (%)
07/0814.9—
08/0917.2—
09/1015.7—
10/1113.6—
11/1213.3—
12/1314.1—
13/1416.2—
14/1518.7—
15/1619.7—
16/1728.2—
17/1827.612.2
18/1924.210.5
19/2023.410.3
20/2122.18.4
21/2222.19.1
22/2322.59.4
23/2422.39.4
24/2520.59.2
25/2619.510.2
26/2717.88.9

How each marketing year's World production estimate evolved across successive WASDE reports, aligned on the first projection in May. Red = current (2026/27). A break in a line is a WASDE that was not published — there is no October 2025 report. Source: USDA WASDE.

Corn World production by WASDE vintage
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May1,295.381,264.981,219.93
Jun1,300.381,265.981,220.54
Jul1,297.091,263.661,224.79
Aug1,298.881,288.581,219.82
Sep1,290.951,286.581,218.57
Oct——1,217.19
Nov—1,286.231,219.40
Dec—1,282.961,217.89
Jan—1,296.011,214.35
Feb—1,295.911,212.47
Mar—1,297.441,214.17
Apr—1,301.071,215.10
May—1,312.681,221.28
Jun—1,326.671,223.33
Jul—1,327.701,225.30
Aug—1,329.911,226.02
Sep—1,330.811,228.91

The same vintages rebased to each marketing year's own first projection, so every line starts at zero and years are directly comparable regardless of crop size. Above the line, USDA has raised the crop since May; below, cut it. Red = current (2026/27).

Corn World production revision since first projection
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jun+5.00+1.00+0.61
Jul+1.71-1.32+4.86
Aug+3.50+23.60-0.11
Sep-4.43+21.60-1.36
Oct——-2.74
Nov—+21.25-0.53
Dec—+17.98-2.04
Jan—+31.03-5.58
Feb—+30.93-7.46
Mar—+32.46-5.76
Apr—+36.09-4.83
May—+47.70+1.35
Jun—+61.69+3.40
Jul—+62.72+5.37
Aug—+64.93+6.09
Sep—+65.83+8.98

Wheat

WASDE #675 | 2026/27 Marketing Year | vs. WASDE #674
World Ending Stocks: 276.29 MMT — above average — mildly bearish 75th percentile
Ex-China Stocks-to-Use (STU): 17.5% — near-average ex-China supply 50th percentile
US Acre Sensitivity: 1M planted acres = 36M bu — 5.0% of US ending stocks, 7.0 days of use75% harvested
vs. WASDE #674: world ending stocks raised by 3.04 MMT (273.25 → 276.29) ▲ +3.04

Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)

Item World United States World MoM
Beg. Stocks280.6025.04▲ +0.38
Production822.4341.66▲ +3.13
Imports207.483.81▼ -0.80
Dom. Total Use826.7529.91▲ +0.48
Exports211.7721.09▼ -0.94
Ending Stocks276.2919.51▲ +3.04
Stocks-to-Use %26.6%38.3%
Ex-China STU %17.5% 50th pct—

Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2026/27). Source: USDA WASDE.

Wheat ending stocks by year
Marketing YearWorld (MMT)US (MMT)
07/08122.668.32
08/09166.6617.87
09/10202.5026.55
10/11198.9023.47
11/12198.8920.21
12/13175.5919.54
13/14193.9216.07
14/15217.5820.48
15/16242.7426.55
16/17262.3132.13
17/18283.6929.91
18/19283.3729.39
19/20296.8327.99
20/21286.3323.00
21/22272.6918.36
22/23275.4215.50
23/24269.6518.95
24/25260.5923.26
25/26280.6025.04
26/27276.2919.51

World (teal) and Ex-China (gold) stocks-to-use. China holds non-tradeable domestic reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Wheat stocks-to-use by year
Marketing YearWorld STU (%)Ex-China STU (%)
07/0816.7—
08/0921.2—
09/1025.8—
10/1125.3—
11/1223.3—
12/1321.5—
13/1422.4—
14/1525.0—
15/1627.5—
16/1728.4—
17/1830.719.0
18/1931.218.4
19/2031.618.0
20/2128.917.6
21/2227.416.1
22/2327.215.8
23/2426.515.6
24/2525.615.3
25/2626.717.6
26/2726.617.5

How each marketing year's World production estimate evolved across successive WASDE reports, aligned on the first projection in May. Red = current (2026/27). A break in a line is a WASDE that was not published — there is no October 2025 report. Source: USDA WASDE.

Wheat World production by WASDE vintage
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May819.06808.52798.19
Jun820.06808.59790.75
Jul819.97808.55796.19
Aug819.30806.90798.28
Sep822.43816.20796.88
Oct——794.08
Nov—828.89794.73
Dec—837.81792.95
Jan—842.17793.24
Feb—841.80793.79
Mar—842.12797.23
Apr—844.15796.85
May—843.84799.71
Jun—844.36799.91
Jul—843.77799.92
Aug—843.35799.90
Sep—843.99800.86

The same vintages rebased to each marketing year's own first projection, so every line starts at zero and years are directly comparable regardless of crop size. Above the line, USDA has raised the crop since May; below, cut it. Red = current (2026/27).

Wheat World production revision since first projection
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jun+1.00+0.07-7.44
Jul+0.91+0.03-2.00
Aug+0.24-1.62+0.09
Sep+3.37+7.68-1.31
Oct——-4.11
Nov—+20.37-3.46
Dec—+29.29-5.24
Jan—+33.65-4.95
Feb—+33.28-4.40
Mar—+33.60-0.96
Apr—+35.63-1.34
May—+35.32+1.52
Jun—+35.84+1.72
Jul—+35.25+1.73
Aug—+34.83+1.71
Sep—+35.47+2.67

U.S. Wheat by Class — 2026/27 (Million Bushels) | vs. WASDE #674

ItemHRW (KC)SRW (Chicago)HRS (Mpls)
Production463.00287.00434.00
Exports195.00100.00235.00
Dom. Use405.00225.00291.00
Ending Stocks319.0099.00205.00

Soybeans

WASDE #675 | 2026/27 Marketing Year | vs. WASDE #674
World Ending Stocks: 124.02 MMT — historically ample — bearish pressure 90th percentile
Ex-China Stocks-to-Use (STU): 16.0% — historically tight ex-China — structurally supportive for prices 10th percentile
US Acre Sensitivity: 1M planted acres = 52M bu — 16.8% of US ending stocks, 4.2 days of use99% harvested
vs. WASDE #674: world ending stocks cut by 0.19 MMT (124.21 → 124.02) ▼ -0.19

Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)

Item World United States World MoM
Beg. Stocks125.278.85▲ +0.15
Production442.35123.42▲ +0.10
Imports190.420.68▲ +1.15
Dom. Total Use442.4478.66▲ +0.42
Exports191.5845.86▲ +1.17
Ending Stocks124.028.43▼ -0.19
Stocks-to-Use %19.6%6.8%
Ex-China STU %16.0% 10th pct—

Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2026/27). Source: USDA WASDE.

Soybeans ending stocks by year
Marketing YearWorld (MMT)US (MMT)
07/0852.965.58
08/0942.573.76
09/1059.994.11
10/1170.115.85
11/1253.584.61
12/1357.403.83
13/1461.772.50
14/1577.535.19
15/1678.505.35
16/1795.658.21
17/1899.0211.92
18/19114.4824.74
19/2096.8414.28
20/21100.356.99
21/2293.097.47
22/23101.797.19
23/24115.139.32
24/25125.958.84
25/26125.278.85
26/27124.028.43

World (teal) and Ex-China (gold) stocks-to-use. China holds non-tradeable domestic reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Soybeans stocks-to-use by year
Marketing YearWorld STU (%)Ex-China STU (%)
07/0817.1—
08/0914.3—
09/1018.1—
10/1120.4—
11/1215.3—
12/1315.9—
13/1415.9—
14/1518.1—
15/1617.6—
16/1720.0—
17/1820.219.7
18/1923.224.3
19/2018.516.9
20/2119.016.6
21/2217.916.6
22/2318.916.5
23/2420.516.3
24/2521.117.4
25/2620.316.7
26/2719.616.0

How each marketing year's World production estimate evolved across successive WASDE reports, aligned on the first projection in May. Red = current (2026/27). A break in a line is a WASDE that was not published — there is no October 2025 report. Source: USDA WASDE.

Soybeans World production by WASDE vintage
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May441.54426.82422.26
Jun441.34426.82422.26
Jul441.70427.68421.85
Aug442.25426.39428.73
Sep442.35425.87429.20
Oct——428.92
Nov—421.75425.40
Dec—422.54427.14
Jan—425.68424.26
Feb—428.18420.76
Mar—427.18420.76
Apr—427.41420.58
May—427.60420.87
Jun—429.20420.78
Jul—429.46422.00
Aug—429.46423.97
Sep—429.41424.20

The same vintages rebased to each marketing year's own first projection, so every line starts at zero and years are directly comparable regardless of crop size. Above the line, USDA has raised the crop since May; below, cut it. Red = current (2026/27).

Soybeans World production revision since first projection
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jun-0.20+0.00+0.00
Jul+0.16+0.86-0.41
Aug+0.71-0.43+6.47
Sep+0.81-0.95+6.94
Oct——+6.66
Nov—-5.07+3.14
Dec—-4.28+4.88
Jan—-1.14+2.00
Feb—+1.36-1.50
Mar—+0.36-1.50
Apr—+0.59-1.68
May—+0.78-1.39
Jun—+2.38-1.48
Jul—+2.64-0.26
Aug—+2.64+1.71
Sep—+2.59+1.94

Cotton

WASDE #675 | 2026/27 Marketing Year | vs. WASDE #674
World Ending Stocks: 69.86 M Bales — below average — mildly supportive 25th percentile
Ex-China Stocks-to-Use (STU): 28.1% — historically tight ex-China — structurally supportive for prices 10th percentile
US Acre Sensitivity: 1M planted acres = 1.26M bales — 35.1% of US ending stocks, 33.4 days of use78% harvested
vs. WASDE #674: world ending stocks raised by 0.17 M Bales (69.69 → 69.86) ▲ +0.17

Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (M Bales)

Item World United States World MoM
Beg. Stocks75.314.15▲ +0.51
Production117.3213.20▼ -0.31
Imports44.240.01▲ +0.44
Dom. Total Use122.921.50◆ unch
Exports44.2212.30▲ +0.40
Ending Stocks69.863.60▲ +0.17
Stocks-to-Use %41.8%26.1%
Ex-China STU %28.1% 10th pct—

Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2026/27). Source: USDA WASDE.

Cotton ending stocks by year
Marketing YearWorld (M Bales)US (M Bales)
07/0862.6610.04
08/0960.526.34
09/1047.092.95
10/1149.442.60
11/1273.443.35
12/1390.043.80
13/14102.862.35
14/15111.743.65
15/1694.913.80
16/1780.402.75
17/1880.744.20
18/1979.954.85
19/2097.057.25
20/2186.303.15
21/2276.324.05
22/2375.904.65
23/2473.303.15
24/2574.834.00
25/2675.314.15
26/2769.863.60

World (teal) and Ex-China (gold) stocks-to-use. China holds non-tradeable domestic reserves — Ex-China shows globally-available supply tightness.

Cotton stocks-to-use by year
Marketing YearWorld STU (%)Ex-China STU (%)
07/0838.8—
08/0943.2—
09/1030.5—
10/1133.1—
11/1249.3—
12/1358.3—
13/1468.2—
14/1576.2—
15/1664.5—
16/1752.2—
17/1849.134.7
18/1949.336.2
19/2067.053.9
20/2150.137.0
21/2247.930.5
22/2350.838.2
23/2446.130.5
24/2546.332.7
25/2645.231.2
26/2741.828.1

How each marketing year's World production estimate evolved across successive WASDE reports, aligned on the first projection in May. Red = current (2026/27). A break in a line is a WASDE that was not published — there is no October 2025 report. Source: USDA WASDE.

Cotton World production by WASDE vintage
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May116.04117.81119.05
Jun116.04116.99119.14
Jul117.26118.42120.19
Aug117.63116.62117.64
Sep117.32117.68116.42
Oct——116.64
Nov—120.08116.18
Dec—119.79117.39
Jan—119.43119.45
Feb—119.86120.46
Mar—120.99120.96
Apr—121.87120.89
May—122.64121.07
Jun—122.66119.93
Jul—121.91119.90
Aug—121.97119.15
Sep—121.95119.22

The same vintages rebased to each marketing year's own first projection, so every line starts at zero and years are directly comparable regardless of crop size. Above the line, USDA has raised the crop since May; below, cut it. Red = current (2026/27).

Cotton World production revision since first projection
Report month2026/272025/262024/25
May+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jun+0.00-0.82+0.09
Jul+1.22+0.61+1.14
Aug+1.59-1.19-1.41
Sep+1.28-0.13-2.63
Oct——-2.41
Nov—+2.27-2.87
Dec—+1.98-1.66
Jan—+1.62+0.40
Feb—+2.05+1.41
Mar—+3.18+1.91
Apr—+4.06+1.84
May—+4.83+2.02
Jun—+4.85+0.88
Jul—+4.10+0.85
Aug—+4.16+0.10
Sep—+4.14+0.17
WASDE Grain Report · USDA OCE/WAOB · Corn · Wheat · Soybeans · Cotton
Data: USDA Office of the Chief Economist — World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
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WASDE Grain & Cotton Report — September 2026 Data through: WASDE: #675 Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/wasde_grains_20d37fa3.html SUPPLY & DEMAND — ENDING STOCKS: Corn 272.1 MMT STU 17.8% Wheat 276.3 MMT STU 26.6% Soybeans 124.0 MMT STU 19.6% Cotton 69.9 M Bales STU 41.8%
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