Managed money is moderately long (60th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 23,833 contracts. Week-over-week change: -2,518 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are neutral to long (57th percentile).
KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01
33.7
57.9
41.1
Jan 08
34.5
60.5
42.1
Jan 15
32.5
62.9
42.7
Jan 22
35.2
65.6
46.1
Jan 29
23.9
65.7
48.6
Feb 05
16.8
60.2
48.2
Feb 12
14.7
59.6
50.5
Feb 19
12.9
57.9
45.8
Feb 26
12.4
54.9
42.7
Mar 05
14.8
52.4
43.4
Mar 12
18.6
51.4
47.1
Mar 19
23.9
53.7
42.4
Mar 26
25.5
49.3
47.9
Apr 02
22.7
37.4
57.3
Apr 09
26.3
33.1
66.9
Apr 16
23.8
34.9
71.8
Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 01
203.5
251.3
273.8
Jan 08
201.5
239.2
269.5
Jan 15
202.4
241.8
264.3
Jan 22
207.0
259.9
268.7
Jan 29
226.5
267.9
273.3
Feb 05
226.1
273.5
280.7
Feb 12
192.4
217.8
252.2
Feb 19
202.2
215.8
236.0
Feb 26
208.6
218.9
239.5
Mar 05
206.2
222.4
247.5
Mar 12
210.7
219.2
244.4
Mar 19
217.8
224.5
248.7
Mar 26
217.6
224.9
267.0
Apr 02
219.4
225.1
282.6
Apr 09
199.4
181.5
295.6
Apr 16
196.8
177.9
287.0
🗓
Crop Conditions Overview
CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average across all arabica regions
Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year.
Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) ·
Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk).
Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year.
Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.
Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar).
Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.
Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.
🌿
Brazil Arabica — Seasonal Detail
Minas Gerais / São Paulo · Primary arabica production zone
Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.75) · Colombia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.84) · Ethiopia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.86). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.
CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
0.130
0.350
0.730
Jan-2
-0.130
0.130
-0.530
Jan-3
0.440
-0.290
0.790
Feb-1
0.780
-0.510
-0.190
Feb-2
-0.440
-1.000
0.790
Feb-3
1.920
-1.000
0.380
Mar-1
-0.310
-1.000
-0.240
Mar-2
0.450
-0.440
-0.870
Mar-3
-0.400
0.150
0.820
Apr-1
-0.750
-0.330
-0.420
Soil moisture fraction. Values below the grey envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.360
0.420
0.330
Jan-2
0.360
0.430
0.360
Jan-3
0.390
0.410
0.370
Feb-1
0.410
0.410
0.390
Feb-2
0.410
0.390
0.390
Feb-3
0.410
0.360
0.420
Mar-1
0.430
0.340
0.400
Mar-2
0.430
0.330
0.390
Mar-3
0.430
0.330
0.390
Apr-1
0.410
0.320
0.390
10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the grey historical envelope.
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
71.600
99.700
100.600
Jan-2
45.500
69.700
24.500
Jan-3
90.600
47.100
106.500
Feb-1
98.500
27.100
42.600
Feb-2
25.000
0.000
76.100
Feb-3
104.100
0.000
50.600
Mar-1
33.500
0.000
34.400
Mar-2
67.400
20.100
5.300
Mar-3
23.700
34.800
64.900
Apr-1
5.700
11.900
12.300
Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the grey envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
23.900
23.400
23.800
Jan-2
23.700
23.400
25.400
Jan-3
22.600
24.800
23.600
Feb-1
23.700
24.000
23.900
Feb-2
24.100
25.300
23.900
Feb-3
22.800
25.300
24.400
Mar-1
23.200
25.000
24.900
Mar-2
23.400
25.600
25.700
Mar-3
22.900
24.100
23.600
Apr-1
22.800
23.600
23.800
🌿
Colombia — Seasonal Detail
Andean growing region · Bimodal rainfall · Year-round harvest
Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
0.820
0.460
-0.710
Jan-2
0.510
-0.460
-0.330
Jan-3
0.790
0.240
-0.780
Feb-1
0.330
0.280
0.530
Feb-2
0.360
0.590
-0.390
Feb-3
-0.150
0.620
-0.750
Mar-1
-0.250
0.000
-0.460
Mar-2
-0.500
0.250
0.010
Mar-3
-0.210
-0.080
-0.320
Apr-1
-0.840
0.250
-0.040
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.420
0.440
0.410
Jan-2
0.440
0.420
0.400
Jan-3
0.430
0.400
0.380
Feb-1
0.440
0.400
0.380
Feb-2
0.430
0.410
0.390
Feb-3
0.440
0.420
0.380
Mar-1
0.430
0.430
0.370
Mar-2
0.420
0.440
0.380
Mar-3
0.420
0.440
0.380
Apr-1
0.430
0.450
0.400
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
116.900
98.100
18.100
Jan-2
89.600
30.600
35.900
Jan-3
103.900
67.200
11.500
Feb-1
94.600
82.700
94.100
Feb-2
93.500
104.700
38.000
Feb-3
57.700
104.900
14.500
Mar-1
69.800
93.000
43.000
Mar-2
48.500
126.300
87.800
Mar-3
88.100
108.000
68.800
Apr-1
18.600
155.100
105.800
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
20.700
20.900
22.200
Jan-2
20.600
21.500
22.700
Jan-3
21.100
21.400
23.400
Feb-1
21.100
21.700
22.000
Feb-2
20.900
21.500
23.000
Feb-3
21.500
21.300
23.000
Mar-1
22.200
21.400
23.100
Mar-2
21.800
21.200
23.300
Mar-3
21.800
21.800
22.900
Apr-1
21.400
21.100
22.300
🌿
Ethiopia — Seasonal Detail
Jimma / Sidama / Yirgacheffe · Africa's largest arabica producer
Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the grey envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window.