CONAB Brazil — Crop Survey Update

Latest: 26/27 1st Survey · 4 surveys per crop year · Published in Portuguese

Brazil Total

66.2M

CONAB 26/27 1st Survey · +9.7M YoY

Arabica

44.1M

66.6% of Brazil total · 26/27 1st Survey

Conilon

22.1M

33.4% of Brazil total · 26/27 1st Survey

Stacked bars: arabica (gold) + conilon (teal) = Brazil total per survey wave. Dotted line = prior crop year (2025) total for reference. Source: CONAB Portal de Informações Agropecuárias.

Survey Progression — Current and Prior Crop Year

Crop Year	Survey	Arabica (M bags)	Conilon (M bags)	Total (M bags)	% Conilon
26/27	1st Survey	44.1M	22.1M	66.2M	33.4%
25/26	1st Survey	34.7M	17.1M	51.8M	33.1%
25/26	2nd Survey	37.0M	18.7M	55.7M	33.6%
25/26	3rd Survey	35.2M	20.1M	55.2M	36.3%
25/26	4th Survey	35.8M	20.8M	56.5M	36.7%

Brazil — Arabica vs Conilon Historical Trend

Annual crop year totals · CONAB SerieHistórica

Annual Brazil coffee production by species. Conilon's rising share reflects expanded planting in Espírito Santo and Rondônia as well as structural arabica/conilon area shifts. Source: CONAB SerieHistórica (SerieHistoricaCafe.txt).

USDA 25/26 Forecast — Jun vs Dec Revision

Bi-annual forecast · June and December updates

Total Production

178.8M

Dec forecast: 178.8M · +0.2M vs Jun

Arabica Production

95.5M

Dec forecast: 95.5M · 1.5M vs Jun

Robusta Production

83.3M

Dec forecast: 83.3M · +1.7M vs Jun

Ending Stocks

20.1M

Dec forecast: 20.1M · 2.7M vs Jun

Key Country Detail — Dec Forecast with Jun→Dec Change

Country	Total Prod	Change	Arabica	Change	Robusta	Change	Ending Stocks	Change
Brazil	63.0M	2.0M	38.0M	2.9M	25.0M	+0.9M	0.5M	1.2M
Vietnam	30.8M	0.2M	1.2M	+0.2M	29.6M	0.4M	0.4M	0.5M
Colombia	13.8M	+1.3M	13.8M	+1.3M	0.0M	+—	1.0M	+0.5M
Ethiopia	11.6M	+—	11.6M	+—	0.0M	+—	0.1M	+—
Indonesia	12.4M	+1.2M	1.4M	+—	11.0M	+1.2M	0.7M	0.3M

Dec forecast vs Jun forecast. Negative change = USDA revised estimate lower. Ending stocks revisions are the most price-sensitive signal — a cut to ending stocks tightens the supply balance even when production is unchanged. Source: USDA FAS PSD Online.

USDA PSD — World Coffee Balance Sheet

Market year 25/26 · USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

World Stocks-to-Use: 11.6% — Historically tight 0th percentile

World Stocks-to-Use

11.6%

Historically tight · 25/26

World Production

179M

Thousand 60-kg bags · 25/26 USDA est.

World ending stocks ÷ world domestic consumption. 20-year window. Lower = tighter supply, more price-sensitive to shocks. Gold dashed line = 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution.

Top 5 producing countries by market year. Source: USDA FAS PSD, all country estimates.

Country Production — Million 60-kg bags (USDA PSD)

Market Year	Brazil	— Arabica	— Robusta	Vietnam	Colombia	Ethiopia	Indonesia	World Total
25/26	63.0M	38.0M	25.0M	30.8M	13.8M	11.6M	12.4M	178.8M
24/25	65.0M	44.0M	21.0M	29.0M	14.8M	11.1M	10.7M	175.3M
23/24	66.3M	44.9M	21.4M	27.6M	12.8M	9.1M	8.2M	169.3M
22/23	62.6M	39.8M	22.8M	28.3M	10.7M	7.3M	10.7M	164.4M
21/22	58.1M	36.4M	21.7M	31.6M	11.8M	8.2M	10.6M	165.0M
20/21	69.9M	49.7M	20.2M	29.0M	13.4M	7.6M	10.7M	176.5M
19/20	60.5M	42.0M	18.5M	31.3M	14.1M	7.5M	10.7M	169.0M
18/19	66.5M	49.7M	16.8M	30.4M	13.9M	7.3M	10.6M	175.9M