Energy Market Intelligence

Weather: 2026-04-26 Storage: 2026-04-17 COT: 2026-04-21

Storage

2,063 Bcf

Working gas L48 · 2026-04-17 · +112 Bcf vs. 5-yr avg

Henry Hub

$2.810/MMBtu

Spot price · week of 2026-04-24

NG MM Position

-100,497 cts

Managed money net · 2026-04-21

ENSO Phase

Neutral

ONI -0.16°C · JFM 2026

ENSO context: Neutral ENSO conditions offer no systematic temperature bias. Regional weather patterns will dominate seasonal demand.

Blue bars = colder than normal (bullish gas demand). Red bars = warmer than normal (bearish gas demand). HDD = heating demand; CDD = cooling demand; base 65°F.

Region	HDD deviation (°F·day)	CDD deviation (°F·day)
New England	+1.9	-0.1
New York	+7.0	-0.2
Mid-Atlantic	+4.4	-0.6
Midwest	-3.3	+1.3
Southeast	-1.5	+1.9
Texas	-0.6	+7.7
Southwest	-0.3	-1.5
Pacific NW	-1.6	-0.0
California	+2.2	-1.9

New England

CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate

HDD today 17.8 +1.9 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.1 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +11

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -9

↑ Colder than normal

New York

New York state — Transco Zone 6

HDD today 19.6 +7.0 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.2 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +19

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -6

↑ Colder than normal

Mid-Atlantic

DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate

HDD today 14.7 +4.4 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.6 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal +18

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +10

↑ Colder than normal

Midwest

MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent

HDD today 6.1 -3.3 vs. normal

CDD today 2.6 +1.3 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -4

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +21

↓ Warmer than normal

Southeast

AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability

HDD today 0.0 -1.5 vs. normal

CDD today 8.4 +1.9 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -4

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +4

↓ Warmer than normal

Texas

Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub

HDD today 0.0 -0.6 vs. normal

CDD today 13.5 +7.7 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -1

8–14 day HDD vs. normal +0

→ Near normal

Southwest

AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)

HDD today 7.3 -0.3 vs. normal

CDD today 3.4 -1.5 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -15

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -17

↓ Warmer than normal

Pacific NW

WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest

HDD today 12.4 -1.6 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -0.0 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -18

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -35

↓ Warmer than normal

California

California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory

HDD today 6.7 +2.2 vs. normal

CDD today 0.0 -1.9 vs. normal

7-day HDD vs. normal -4

8–14 day HDD vs. normal -5

↓ Warmer than normal

Region	Area	HDD Today	HDD Dev	CDD Today	CDD Dev	7-Day HDD Dev	8-14 Day HDD Dev	Signal
New England	CT · MA · ME · NH · RI · VT — Algonquin Citygate	17.8	+1.9	0.0	-0.1	+11	-9	↑ Colder than normal
New York	New York state — Transco Zone 6	19.6	+7.0	0.0	-0.2	+19	-6	↑ Colder than normal
Mid-Atlantic	DE · MD · NJ · PA · VA · WV · OH · IN · IL · MI — Chicago Citygate	14.7	+4.4	0.0	-0.6	+18	+10	↑ Colder than normal
Midwest	MN · WI · IA · MO · ND · SD · LA · AR — Mid-Continent	6.1	-3.3	2.6	+1.3	-4	+21	↓ Warmer than normal
Southeast	AL · FL · GA · SC · TN — Southeast Electric Reliability	0.0	-1.5	8.4	+1.9	-4	+4	↓ Warmer than normal
Texas	Texas grid — Houston Ship Channel · Waha Hub	0.0	-0.6	13.5	+7.7	-1	+0	→ Near normal
Southwest	AZ · NV · UT · CO · NM · WY · ID — Opal Hub (Wyoming)	7.3	-0.3	3.4	-1.5	-15	-17	↓ Warmer than normal
Pacific NW	WA · OR · MT — Sumas · Pacific Northwest	12.4	-1.6	0.0	-0.0	-18	-35	↓ Warmer than normal
California	California — SoCal Citygate · PG&E territory	6.7	+2.2	0.0	-1.9	-4	-5	↓ Warmer than normal

Blue = colder than normal (↑ heating demand, bullish for gas). Red = warmer than normal (↓ heating demand, bearish for gas). State shading reflects the dominant energy region assignment.

Region	Temperature Anomaly Signal (°F·day)	Direction
New England	-2.06	Colder than normal
New York	-7.17	Colder than normal
Mid-Atlantic	-4.94	Colder than normal
Midwest	+4.63	Warmer than normal
Southeast	+3.41	Warmer than normal
Texas	+8.30	Warmer than normal
Southwest	-1.18	Colder than normal
Pacific NW	+1.60	Warmer than normal
California	-4.03	Colder than normal

HDD deviation = forecast minus 30-yr normal. Positive = colder than normal. Gold diamonds show last week's forecast for the same 8–14 day window — the gap is the forecast revision direction.

Region	Days 1–7 HDD vs. Normal	Days 8–14 HDD vs. Normal	8–14 Day Prior Forecast	Revision
New England	+10.7	-9.1	+26.0	-35.1
New York	+18.8	-5.6	+18.8	-24.4
Mid-Atlantic	+17.9	+10.3	+39.6	-29.3
Midwest	-4.3	+21.4	+32.2	-10.8
Southeast	-3.5	+4.0	+1.9	+2.1
Texas	-0.9	+0.2	-0.0	+0.2
Southwest	-14.6	-17.0	-17.7	+0.7
Pacific NW	-18.3	-35.4	-2.0	-33.4
California	-3.9	-5.2	-15.0	+9.8

📍 Regional Deep Dive — 16-Day Forecast

Select Region

New York is running 7.0 HDD·day colder than normal today. Outlook: the 7-day outlook extends +19 HDD vs. normal; the 8–14 day window shows -6 HDD vs. normal. Elevated heating demand — bullish near-term gas signal.

Solid lines = GFS model forecast (Open-Meteo). Dotted lines = 30-year climate normal (1991–2020 ERA5 baseline). Gold vertical line = today (separates actuals from forecast). Base temperature 65°F. Values are population-weighted within each energy region.

Date	Region	HDD	HDD Normal	HDD Deviation	CDD Normal	CDD Deviation	Is Forecast
2026-04-19	New York	17.3	13.0	+4.3	0.2	-0.2	Actual
2026-04-20	New York	22.5	12.2	+10.3	0.1	-0.1	Actual
2026-04-21	New York	23.6	12.7	+10.9	0.0	-0.0	Actual
2026-04-22	New York	16.9	13.4	+3.5	0.0	-0.0	Actual
2026-04-23	New York	9.0	13.6	-4.6	0.0	-0.0	Actual
2026-04-24	New York	6.0	12.8	-6.8	0.1	-0.1	Actual
2026-04-25	New York	18.7	12.9	+5.8	0.0	-0.0	Actual
2026-04-26	New York	19.6	12.6	+7.0	0.2	-0.2	Forecast
2026-04-27	New York	14.9	12.7	+2.2	0.1	-0.1	Forecast
2026-04-28	New York	11.5	12.3	-0.8	0.3	-0.3	Forecast
2026-04-29	New York	11.6	12.2	-0.6	0.1	-0.1	Forecast
2026-04-30	New York	14.1	11.7	+2.4	0.0	-0.0	Forecast
2026-05-01	New York	13.5	9.2	+4.3	0.1	-0.1	Forecast
2026-05-02	New York	12.7	8.5	+4.3	0.5	-0.5	Forecast
2026-05-03	New York	12.5	9.3	+3.2	0.7	-0.7	Forecast
2026-05-04	New York	8.1	9.2	-1.1	0.6	-0.6	Forecast
2026-05-05	New York	1.4	9.1	-7.6	0.4	-0.3	Forecast
2026-05-06	New York	2.8	9.0	-6.2	0.3	-0.3	Forecast
2026-05-07	New York	5.9	9.0	-3.1	0.3	-0.3	Forecast
2026-05-08	New York	11.7	8.9	+2.8	0.3	-0.3	Forecast
2026-05-09	New York	15.2	8.7	+6.5	0.4	-0.4	Forecast
2026-05-10	New York	11.7	6.9	+4.8	0.2	-0.2	Forecast
2026-05-11	New York	9.9	6.7	+3.2	0.6	-0.6	Forecast

Weekly EIA storage report. Red = current; gold = 5-year average; teal = prior year.

Date	Storage (Bcf)	Wk Change (Bcf)	5-Yr Avg (Bcf)	Prior Year (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (Bcf)	Surplus/Deficit (%)
2025-10-24	3,872	+74	3,725	3,872	+147	+3.9%
2025-10-31	3,905	+33	3,761	3,905	+144	+3.8%
2025-11-07	3,950	+45	3,809	3,950	+141	+3.7%
2025-11-14	3,936	-14	3,784	3,936	+152	+4.0%
2025-11-21	3,924	-12	3,755	3,924	+169	+4.5%
2025-11-28	3,913	-11	3,707	3,913	+206	+5.6%
2025-12-05	3,735	-178	3,595	3,735	+140	+3.9%
2025-12-12	3,569	-166	3,491	3,569	+78	+2.2%
2025-12-19	3,401	-168	3,352	3,401	+49	+1.5%
2025-12-26	3,364	-37	3,268	3,364	+96	+2.9%
2026-01-02	3,244	-120	3,165	3,373	+79	+2.5%
2026-01-09	3,174	-70	2,987	3,115	+187	+6.3%
2026-01-16	3,054	-120	2,791	2,892	+263	+9.4%
2026-01-23	2,813	-241	2,565	2,571	+248	+9.7%
2026-01-30	2,454	-359	2,393	2,397	+61	+2.5%
2026-02-06	2,202	-252	2,257	2,297	-55	-2.4%
2026-02-13	2,059	-143	2,098	2,101	-39	-1.9%
2026-02-20	2,007	-52	1,963	1,840	+44	+2.2%
2026-02-27	1,876	-131	1,887	1,760	-11	-0.6%
2026-03-06	1,838	-38	1,843	1,698	-5	-0.3%
2026-03-13	1,872	+34	1,816	1,707	+56	+3.1%
2026-03-20	1,818	-54	1,814	1,744	+4	+0.2%
2026-03-27	1,851	+33	1,806	1,773	+45	+2.5%
2026-04-03	1,900	+49	1,842	1,830	+58	+3.1%
2026-04-10	1,960	+60	1,888	1,846	+72	+3.8%
2026-04-17	2,063	+103	1,951	1,934	+112	+5.7%

Monthly averages in Bcfd. Power burn vs. 5-yr avg shows demand-side pressure; production and LNG provide supply context. EIA data; latest available ~2 months lag.

Henry Hub weekly average spot price. EIA daily series → weekly average. Regional basis data (Algonquin, Transco Z6, Chicago, SoCal, Opal) pending NGI data feed subscription.

📊 CFTC COT Positioning

Managed money holds a net position of -100,497 contracts (17th percentile vs. full history since 2010). Week-over-week change: +13,770 contracts.
Positioning at historically low/short levels.

Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, seasonal overlay. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Gold line = Henry Hub front-month price.

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Commercial Net	Open Interest
2025-04-29	-44,297	-18,274	+112,254	1,495,671
2025-05-06	-45,230	-932	+113,466	1,536,521
2025-05-13	-38,649	+6,580	+103,910	1,556,307
2025-05-20	-56,807	-18,158	+104,859	1,526,319
2025-05-27	-63,541	-6,734	+115,863	1,488,916
2025-06-03	-52,765	+10,776	+91,795	1,526,697
2025-06-10	-84,420	-31,656	+95,809	1,565,051
2025-06-17	-63,260	+21,159	+76,273	1,556,519
2025-06-24	-60,725	+2,536	+76,446	1,518,525
2025-07-01	-51,629	+9,096	+73,159	1,522,714
2025-07-08	-47,125	+4,504	+69,161	1,543,718
2025-07-15	-19,525	+27,600	+60,219	1,575,124
2025-07-22	-30,039	-10,514	+62,953	1,552,964
2025-07-29	-13,005	+17,035	+69,767	1,571,074
2025-08-05	-27,727	-14,722	+78,446	1,629,552
2025-08-12	-50,752	-23,025	+81,915	1,641,970
2025-08-19	-36,785	+13,967	+91,812	1,627,068
2025-08-26	-44,343	-7,559	+89,466	1,633,747
2025-09-02	-36,950	+7,393	+89,711	1,650,508
2025-09-09	-24,979	+11,971	+83,539	1,647,371
2025-09-16	-23,288	+1,692	+104,627	1,655,846
2025-09-23	-63,286	-39,998	+122,418	1,646,354
2025-09-30	-31,367	+31,919	+118,220	1,669,212
2025-10-07	-32,765	-1,399	+134,934	1,653,078
2025-10-14	-75,067	-42,302	+144,466	1,689,162
2025-10-21	-45,289	+29,778	+150,817	1,697,865
2025-10-28	-41,787	+3,502	+139,194	1,639,227
2025-11-04	-44,315	-2,528	+127,377	1,587,905
2025-11-10	-52,984	-8,669	+124,806	1,548,544
2025-11-18	-59,648	-6,662	+121,829	1,522,819
2025-11-25	-65,361	-5,713	+125,612	1,504,302
2025-12-02	-39,905	+25,456	+113,100	1,535,955
2025-12-09	-30,862	+9,043	+85,247	1,564,010
2025-12-16	-65,722	-34,862	+118,265	1,592,965
2025-12-23	-105,906	-40,183	+148,682	1,575,569
2025-12-30	-83,730	+22,176	+145,146	1,545,577
2026-01-06	-100,174	-16,444	+155,886	1,610,205
2026-01-13	-104,049	-3,875	+174,709	1,652,342
2026-01-20	-77,014	+27,035	+182,171	1,636,626
2026-01-27	-21,970	+55,044	+152,283	1,646,811
2026-02-03	+106	+22,076	+163,609	1,676,452
2026-02-10	-8,128	-8,234	+160,031	1,643,074
2026-02-17	-26,840	-18,712	+176,146	1,633,915
2026-02-24	-75,706	-48,866	+184,091	1,630,910
2026-03-03	-75,910	-203	+184,809	1,621,447
2026-03-10	-62,574	+13,335	+164,651	1,584,208
2026-03-17	-44,600	+17,975	+158,122	1,577,306
2026-03-24	-54,529	-9,930	+154,535	1,520,594
2026-03-31	-68,022	-13,492	+149,081	1,525,975
2026-04-07	-86,410	-18,388	+162,875	1,570,957
2026-04-14	-114,268	-27,857	+173,318	1,599,878
2026-04-21	-100,497	+13,770	+152,458	1,591,158

Supporting Energy Markets — Crude Oil & Heating Oil

WTI Crude Oil MM net: +143,40124th pct WoW: -843

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-04-29	+154,032	+6,702	2,538,802
2025-05-06	+143,938	-10,094	2,651,002
2025-05-13	+139,288	-4,650	2,582,459
2025-05-20	+128,866	-10,422	2,377,361
2025-05-27	+120,582	-8,285	2,472,198
2025-06-03	+163,078	+42,496	2,552,248
2025-06-10	+179,134	+16,057	2,575,353
2025-06-17	+176,256	-2,878	2,607,787
2025-06-24	+164,559	-11,697	2,625,515
2025-07-01	+178,100	+13,541	2,621,571
2025-07-08	+148,106	-29,994	2,628,528
2025-07-15	+96,106	-52,000	2,698,109
2025-07-22	+86,088	-10,017	2,529,772
2025-07-29	+87,840	+1,752	2,592,528
2025-08-05	+78,826	-9,014	2,598,545
2025-08-12	+49,264	-29,563	2,570,247
2025-08-19	+29,686	-19,578	2,399,868
2025-08-26	+24,225	-5,461	2,385,071
2025-09-02	+27,287	+3,062	2,462,489
2025-09-09	+12,657	-14,630	2,439,460
2025-09-16	+38,904	+26,247	2,452,877
2025-09-23	+29,410	-9,494	2,358,166
2025-09-30	+18,386	-11,024	2,469,965
2025-10-07	-15,671	-34,057	2,492,297
2025-10-14	-25,085	-9,414	2,595,395
2025-10-21	-29,995	-4,911	2,468,711
2025-10-28	+4,590	+34,584	2,375,562
2025-11-04	+22,651	+18,061	2,409,632
2025-11-10	+3,178	-19,473	2,390,711
2025-11-18	-3,321	-6,499	2,242,146
2025-11-25	-28,555	-25,234	2,314,741
2025-12-02	-29,425	-870	2,335,339
2025-12-09	+10,745	+40,169	2,308,356
2025-12-16	+11,091	+347	2,322,931
2025-12-23	+17,666	+6,575	2,267,166
2025-12-30	+19,711	+2,045	2,295,914
2026-01-06	+22,580	+2,871	2,382,115
2026-01-13	+42,507	+19,926	2,533,712
2026-01-20	+53,434	+10,927	2,438,338
2026-01-27	+62,991	+9,557	2,585,126
2026-02-03	+80,377	+17,387	2,688,721
2026-02-10	+86,314	+5,936	2,680,183
2026-02-17	+81,219	-5,095	2,577,058
2026-02-24	+98,187	+16,967	2,724,561
2026-03-03	+108,421	+10,235	2,889,103
2026-03-10	+136,419	+27,998	3,138,821
2026-03-17	+147,861	+11,442	3,011,766
2026-03-24	+148,985	+1,125	2,952,171
2026-03-31	+130,717	-18,270	3,039,583
2026-04-07	+137,838	+7,121	3,128,586
2026-04-14	+144,243	+6,406	3,085,567
2026-04-21	+143,401	-843	2,804,594

NY Harbor ULSD MM net: +14,01446th pct WoW: -2,731

Date	MM Net (contracts)	MM Week-over-Week	Open Interest
2025-04-29	-10,156	+920	359,301
2025-05-06	-20,219	-10,064	367,827
2025-05-13	-17,151	+3,068	360,877
2025-05-20	+2,697	+19,848	367,119
2025-05-27	+8,253	+5,556	362,143
2025-06-03	+5,769	-2,482	357,904
2025-06-10	+15,561	+9,790	353,463
2025-06-17	+12,787	-2,774	333,079
2025-06-24	+27,334	+14,547	317,332
2025-07-01	+27,249	-85	344,106
2025-07-08	+33,049	+5,800	367,229
2025-07-15	+40,604	+7,555	370,715
2025-07-22	+38,945	-1,658	384,477
2025-07-29	+41,206	+2,261	375,269
2025-08-05	+26,899	-14,307	369,481
2025-08-12	+27,770	+871	380,173
2025-08-19	+32,412	+4,643	382,074
2025-08-26	+33,105	+693	378,648
2025-09-02	+39,045	+5,940	377,552
2025-09-09	+25,805	-13,241	396,687
2025-09-16	+24,055	-1,750	410,850
2025-09-23	+21,511	-2,543	425,591
2025-09-30	+32,465	+10,953	416,527
2025-10-07	+18,297	-14,168	410,343
2025-10-14	+11,856	-6,441	420,147
2025-10-21	+11,564	-293	408,678
2025-10-28	+25,793	+14,230	385,034
2025-11-04	+32,089	+6,296	376,492
2025-11-10	+37,458	+5,370	382,206
2025-11-18	+37,615	+156	402,936
2025-11-25	+21,786	-15,829	356,805
2025-12-02	+21,015	-771	361,751
2025-12-09	+19,785	-1,230	370,784
2025-12-16	+12,526	-7,259	364,343
2025-12-23	+3,180	-9,346	360,436
2025-12-30	+3,627	+447	353,481
2026-01-06	+577	-3,050	363,276
2026-01-13	-5,942	-6,519	381,401
2026-01-20	-1,110	+4,832	412,974
2026-01-27	+10,612	+11,722	400,218
2026-02-03	+24,325	+13,714	384,174
2026-02-10	+20,315	-4,009	378,033
2026-02-17	+12,592	-7,724	394,972
2026-02-24	+22,524	+9,933	378,635
2026-03-03	+22,702	+178	325,938
2026-03-10	+19,776	-2,927	304,224
2026-03-17	+23,406	+3,630	285,275
2026-03-24	+18,625	-4,781	275,128
2026-03-31	+19,707	+1,082	250,551
2026-04-07	+18,062	-1,645	245,616
2026-04-14	+16,745	-1,317	259,082
2026-04-21	+14,014	-2,731	263,440