USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Corn Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-22 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-13 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 18.3 |
| Jan 08 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 17.6 |
| Jan 15 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Jan 22 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan 29 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Feb 05 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 12 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 19 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Feb 26 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| Mar 05 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| Mar 12 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar 19 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
| Mar 26 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 |
| Apr 02 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 6.5 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | -16.4 | 253.3 | -197.3 |
| Jan 08 | -81.8 | 292.2 | -230.7 |
| Jan 15 | -81.3 | 311.7 | -260.5 |
| Jan 22 | -72.0 | 350.7 | -265.3 |
| Jan 29 | -68.8 | 364.2 | -280.2 |
| Feb 05 | -48.2 | 332.4 | -297.7 |
| Feb 12 | -27.4 | 353.5 | -314.3 |
| Feb 19 | -13.9 | 337.5 | -340.7 |
| Feb 26 | 53.0 | 219.8 | -295.3 |
| Mar 05 | 193.3 | 146.5 | -296.8 |
| Mar 12 | 228.8 | 107.3 | -255.9 |
| Mar 19 | 284.5 | 74.6 | -243.0 |
| Mar 26 | 268.0 | 56.8 | -251.7 |
| Apr 02 | 218.6 | 53.6 | -259.6 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | -7.2 | -217.5 | 198.4 |
| Jan 08 | 78.8 | -244.9 | 217.7 |
| Jan 15 | 90.3 | -286.6 | 264.1 |
| Jan 22 | 71.0 | -324.7 | 262.9 |
| Jan 29 | 73.9 | -340.7 | 267.7 |
| Feb 05 | 62.5 | -304.7 | 272.1 |
| Feb 12 | 56.9 | -331.9 | 290.4 |
| Feb 19 | 39.8 | -312.4 | 306.8 |
| Feb 26 | -32.3 | -227.6 | 269.9 |
| Mar 05 | -177.1 | -160.9 | 261.0 |
| Mar 12 | -217.9 | -119.5 | 213.9 |
| Mar 19 | -277.3 | -73.4 | 197.1 |
| Mar 26 | -237.1 | -46.9 | 213.7 |
| Apr 02 | -188.9 | -54.4 | 219.9 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 1,915.5 | 2,132.6 | 1,601.3 |
| Jan 08 | 2,035.7 | 2,372.0 | 1,713.9 |
| Jan 15 | 2,088.3 | 2,534.2 | 1,852.3 |
| Jan 22 | 2,092.6 | 2,513.6 | 1,958.2 |
| Jan 29 | 2,142.1 | 2,618.9 | 1,963.8 |
| Feb 05 | 2,158.2 | 2,602.5 | 1,996.0 |
| Feb 12 | 2,204.0 | 2,693.2 | 2,038.8 |
| Feb 19 | 1,995.9 | 2,360.3 | 2,053.9 |
| Feb 26 | 2,018.3 | 2,355.1 | 1,896.4 |
| Mar 05 | 2,219.5 | 2,368.6 | 1,914.6 |
| Mar 12 | 2,322.0 | 2,372.1 | 1,961.4 |
| Mar 19 | 2,395.8 | 2,346.1 | 1,999.1 |
| Mar 26 | 2,367.0 | 2,470.0 | 2,017.8 |
| Apr 02 | 2,350.2 | 2,415.7 | 2,056.5 |
Nearby futures price (ZC=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly planting progress (% of intended acres planted). Pace relative to prior years signals planting delays or acceleration.
Average drought coverage across Soybeans Belt states (IA, IL, IN, MN, NE, OH, SD, WI, ND, MO). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-22 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-13 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 10.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 8.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 13.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 9.7 | 13.0 | 18.3 |
| Jan 08 | 9.4 | 13.0 | 17.6 |
| Jan 15 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 12.8 |
| Jan 22 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 12.1 |
| Jan 29 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 10.4 |
| Feb 05 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 12 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 10.3 |
| Feb 19 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| Feb 26 | 15.9 | 12.9 | 10.5 |
| Mar 05 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 11.2 |
| Mar 12 | 13.9 | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar 19 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 10.9 |
| Mar 26 | 16.0 | 13.8 | 6.6 |
| Apr 02 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 6.5 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 57.7 | -28.6 | -11.6 |
| Jan 08 | 13.0 | 34.8 | -31.2 |
| Jan 15 | 10.1 | 40.3 | -76.8 |
| Jan 22 | 17.3 | 56.5 | -91.8 |
| Jan 29 | 28.8 | 57.0 | -108.2 |
| Feb 05 | 123.1 | 28.5 | -130.3 |
| Feb 12 | 163.6 | 16.5 | -134.5 |
| Feb 19 | 184.2 | 8.2 | -136.7 |
| Feb 26 | 198.9 | -35.5 | -160.7 |
| Mar 05 | 222.1 | -15.5 | -172.0 |
| Mar 12 | 202.0 | -22.0 | -155.1 |
| Mar 19 | 197.9 | -43.0 | -148.3 |
| Mar 26 | 213.4 | -29.8 | -134.8 |
| Apr 02 | 189.6 | -50.4 | -138.3 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | -82.2 | 61.5 | 31.8 |
| Jan 08 | -31.8 | 0.5 | 51.7 |
| Jan 15 | -26.0 | -5.2 | 112.4 |
| Jan 22 | -33.9 | -16.7 | 122.8 |
| Jan 29 | -40.1 | -23.2 | 152.0 |
| Feb 05 | -116.6 | 9.3 | 167.7 |
| Feb 12 | -153.8 | 24.5 | 166.5 |
| Feb 19 | -166.0 | 37.8 | 166.6 |
| Feb 26 | -176.4 | 67.2 | 195.6 |
| Mar 05 | -190.7 | 43.7 | 205.5 |
| Mar 12 | -177.0 | 43.3 | 185.2 |
| Mar 19 | -164.3 | 54.8 | 173.5 |
| Mar 26 | -179.4 | 33.0 | 155.2 |
| Apr 02 | -156.9 | 57.0 | 162.1 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 961.9 | 1,013.3 | 789.5 |
| Jan 08 | 1,018.8 | 1,051.7 | 833.6 |
| Jan 15 | 1,038.4 | 1,113.0 | 874.5 |
| Jan 22 | 1,047.7 | 1,083.5 | 931.4 |
| Jan 29 | 1,084.8 | 1,131.7 | 956.2 |
| Feb 05 | 1,207.2 | 1,131.9 | 991.4 |
| Feb 12 | 1,281.1 | 1,128.4 | 1,005.2 |
| Feb 19 | 1,190.5 | 997.8 | 1,037.6 |
| Feb 26 | 1,241.1 | 1,024.1 | 922.2 |
| Mar 05 | 1,306.2 | 1,014.0 | 927.9 |
| Mar 12 | 1,286.1 | 1,038.1 | 951.8 |
| Mar 19 | 1,255.1 | 1,044.0 | 995.0 |
| Mar 26 | 1,239.7 | 1,064.1 | 1,022.7 |
| Apr 02 | 1,263.3 | 1,128.1 | 1,054.8 |
Nearby futures price (ZS=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
USDA NASS weekly crop condition ratings. % Good + Excellent is the headline figure watched by traders. Values above 60% (green) signal favorable conditions; below 40% (red) indicates significant crop stress.
USDA NASS weekly fall planting progress. Pace relative to prior years signals early or delayed establishment entering winter.
USDA NASS weekly crop heading progress. Pace of heading relative to prior years reflects crop development speed and informs harvest timing expectations.
Average drought coverage across SRW Belt states (OH, IN, IL, MI, MO, KY). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-22 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-13 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 16.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 17.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 19.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 21.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 17.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 16.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 12.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 4.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 11.7 | 3.1 | 14.6 |
| Jan 08 | 12.6 | 3.1 | 14.1 |
| Jan 15 | 13.3 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Jan 22 | 13.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Jan 29 | 13.5 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 05 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 12 | 17.4 | 1.5 | 0.2 |
| Feb 19 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 0.5 |
| Feb 26 | 18.0 | 4.2 | 0.5 |
| Mar 05 | 11.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Mar 12 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 |
| Mar 19 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Mar 26 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Apr 02 | 4.3 | 0.2 | 1.0 |
Average drought coverage across HRW Belt states (KS, OK, TX, CO, NE, SD). D2+ (Severe/Extreme/Exceptional) coverage ≥ 30% of the belt is historically significant for yield.
| Date | D0+ (%) | D2+ (%) | D3+ (%) | D4 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-15 | 0.0 | 24.1 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025-04-22 | 0.0 | 22.5 | 0.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025-04-29 | 0.0 | 19.1 | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| 2025-05-06 | 0.0 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 2.5 |
| 2025-05-13 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025-05-20 | 0.0 | 19.9 | 0.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025-05-27 | 0.0 | 17.5 | 0.0 | 2.3 |
| 2025-06-03 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 |
| 2025-06-10 | 0.0 | 12.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 2025-06-17 | 0.0 | 11.8 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 2025-06-24 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 |
| 2025-07-01 | 0.0 | 10.4 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| 2025-07-08 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2025-07-22 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-07-29 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-08-05 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-08-12 | 0.0 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 1.3 |
| 2025-08-19 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025-08-26 | 0.0 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| 2025-09-02 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-09 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-16 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-23 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-09-30 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-07 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-14 | 0.0 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-21 | 0.0 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-10-28 | 0.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-04 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-11 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-18 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-11-25 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2025-12-02 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-09 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-16 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-23 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025-12-30 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| 2026-01-06 | 0.0 | 12.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-13 | 0.0 | 13.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-20 | 0.0 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-01-27 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 0.0 | 16.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-10 | 0.0 | 19.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-17 | 0.0 | 20.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
| 2026-02-24 | 0.0 | 23.4 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 2026-03-03 | 0.0 | 29.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-10 | 0.0 | 30.1 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-17 | 0.0 | 36.7 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| 2026-03-24 | 0.0 | 47.5 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
| 2026-03-31 | 0.0 | 56.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 |
| 2026-04-07 | 0.0 | 54.8 | 0.0 | 4.0 |
D2+ (Severe + Extreme + Exceptional) drought coverage by week of year. Overlapping years allow comparison of current drought intensity vs. historical patterns.
| Date | 2026 (%) | 2025 (%) | 2024 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 12.3 | 19.8 | 11.3 |
| Jan 08 | 13.1 | 20.2 | 9.2 |
| Jan 15 | 14.5 | 20.1 | 8.6 |
| Jan 22 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 6.5 |
| Jan 29 | 16.9 | 19.8 | 6.1 |
| Feb 05 | 19.2 | 20.2 | 5.3 |
| Feb 12 | 20.6 | 19.6 | 4.5 |
| Feb 19 | 23.4 | 20.3 | 4.5 |
| Feb 26 | 29.9 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 05 | 30.1 | 21.1 | 4.5 |
| Mar 12 | 36.7 | 25.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar 19 | 47.5 | 29.2 | 4.0 |
| Mar 26 | 56.2 | 28.8 | 3.0 |
| Apr 02 | 54.8 | 23.2 | 2.9 |
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | -107.2 | -88.6 | -60.3 |
| Jan 08 | -106.2 | -94.4 | -58.0 |
| Jan 15 | -110.7 | -91.8 | -68.6 |
| Jan 22 | -94.7 | -110.8 | -64.5 |
| Jan 29 | -81.8 | -90.4 | -64.8 |
| Feb 05 | -85.7 | -82.8 | -66.7 |
| Feb 12 | -68.0 | -61.6 | -55.7 |
| Feb 19 | -17.3 | -67.6 | -68.5 |
| Feb 26 | -25.8 | -82.4 | -56.3 |
| Mar 05 | -22.3 | -77.4 | -65.5 |
| Mar 12 | -12.7 | -80.7 | -78.9 |
| Mar 19 | -2.2 | -92.6 | -80.6 |
| Mar 26 | 8.6 | -112.0 | -92.1 |
| Apr 02 | -5.6 | -102.1 | -91.9 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 86.7 | 81.5 | 44.5 |
| Jan 08 | 85.8 | 84.5 | 47.1 |
| Jan 15 | 91.7 | 79.7 | 56.3 |
| Jan 22 | 79.5 | 98.1 | 52.8 |
| Jan 29 | 70.9 | 80.9 | 46.0 |
| Feb 05 | 74.3 | 73.2 | 45.3 |
| Feb 12 | 60.2 | 61.2 | 35.0 |
| Feb 19 | 20.8 | 73.6 | 50.6 |
| Feb 26 | 26.6 | 88.5 | 40.1 |
| Mar 05 | 27.6 | 86.4 | 48.6 |
| Mar 12 | 25.2 | 82.7 | 57.9 |
| Mar 19 | 19.4 | 88.9 | 60.6 |
| Mar 26 | 8.7 | 102.4 | 64.2 |
| Apr 02 | 19.9 | 94.8 | 62.4 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 561.4 | 556.2 | 416.1 |
| Jan 08 | 576.8 | 571.4 | 427.3 |
| Jan 15 | 585.0 | 582.5 | 458.5 |
| Jan 22 | 597.3 | 598.2 | 467.6 |
| Jan 29 | 612.0 | 599.2 | 459.2 |
| Feb 05 | 590.5 | 568.5 | 469.3 |
| Feb 12 | 544.1 | 576.4 | 448.4 |
| Feb 19 | 516.2 | 482.3 | 455.3 |
| Feb 26 | 515.1 | 526.9 | 415.0 |
| Mar 05 | 562.2 | 533.2 | 451.8 |
| Mar 12 | 580.8 | 548.7 | 451.4 |
| Mar 19 | 595.8 | 546.9 | 477.6 |
| Mar 26 | 593.4 | 584.2 | 465.0 |
| Apr 02 | 605.8 | 572.1 | 471.1 |
Nearby futures price (ZW=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year, overlapping across all available years.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | -15.7 | -31.9 | -34.5 |
| Jan 08 | -12.8 | -37.6 | -34.2 |
| Jan 15 | -13.0 | -35.1 | -38.7 |
| Jan 22 | -10.3 | -42.4 | -38.3 |
| Jan 29 | -8.8 | -36.0 | -33.4 |
| Feb 05 | -19.5 | -30.2 | -33.4 |
| Feb 12 | -10.6 | -22.1 | -36.4 |
| Feb 19 | 4.2 | -21.3 | -41.9 |
| Feb 26 | 1.9 | -39.3 | -42.1 |
| Mar 05 | 9.4 | -48.7 | -40.9 |
| Mar 12 | 10.7 | -46.7 | -35.5 |
| Mar 19 | 9.7 | -45.5 | -37.9 |
| Mar 26 | 21.5 | -45.7 | -42.6 |
| Apr 02 | 15.6 | -49.8 | -40.5 |
Commercial hedger net position. Commercials are structurally short (forward sellers); a move toward net long is historically bullish.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 3.2 | 19.8 | 25.2 |
| Jan 08 | 7.1 | 24.8 | 23.7 |
| Jan 15 | 12.7 | 21.7 | 32.5 |
| Jan 22 | 8.1 | 29.0 | 29.3 |
| Jan 29 | 11.0 | 17.2 | 22.6 |
| Feb 05 | 22.5 | 13.9 | 24.2 |
| Feb 12 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 30.7 |
| Feb 19 | -6.2 | 9.7 | 35.2 |
| Feb 26 | 2.2 | 34.5 | 32.4 |
| Mar 05 | -2.2 | 42.2 | 31.6 |
| Mar 12 | -3.7 | 34.8 | 27.7 |
| Mar 19 | 0.2 | 38.2 | 33.2 |
| Mar 26 | -11.7 | 39.4 | 37.3 |
| Apr 02 | -1.1 | 45.2 | 38.6 |
Total open interest. Rising OI with a directional move confirms trend; falling OI suggests position liquidation.
| Date | 2026 ('000 cts) | 2025 ('000 cts) | 2024 ('000 cts) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 01 | 314.3 | 291.5 | 221.6 |
| Jan 08 | 316.9 | 300.1 | 226.1 |
| Jan 15 | 325.1 | 313.2 | 232.3 |
| Jan 22 | 330.4 | 304.7 | 241.7 |
| Jan 29 | 334.5 | 294.8 | 252.2 |
| Feb 05 | 315.9 | 278.9 | 266.1 |
| Feb 12 | 329.3 | 274.4 | 270.1 |
| Feb 19 | 326.6 | 240.8 | 269.4 |
| Feb 26 | 317.7 | 258.2 | 261.6 |
| Mar 05 | 323.2 | 273.9 | 276.2 |
| Mar 12 | 336.3 | 276.3 | 288.6 |
| Mar 19 | 341.7 | 282.0 | 294.6 |
| Mar 26 | 331.4 | 301.9 | 295.6 |
| Apr 02 | 329.0 | 287.5 | 316.9 |
Nearby futures price (KE=F). Price shown for context; COT positioning is the primary signal.