SoftSignal LLC
Livestock Market Intelligence
Live Cattle · Feeder Cattle · Lean Hogs · Supply & Positioning
Week of April 24, 2026 Next USDA Cattle on Feed: May 20, 2026
Data: USDA NASS · CFTC · CME
Supply Signal Bullish Favorable margins and/or tight cold storage support cattle and hog prices
|
Cattle-Corn 54.6 vs. breakeven 30
Prices: 2026-04-24 Storage: 2026-03-01 COT: 2026-04-21
Live Cattle
$248.30/cwt
Front-month LE=F · 2026-04-24
Feeder Cattle
$367.62/cwt
Front-month GF=F · 2026-04-24
Lean Hogs
$94.30/cwt
Front-month HE=F · 2026-04-24
Cattle-Corn Ratio
54.6
Breakeven = 30 (favorable)
Cold Storage
Beef 411M lb
Pork 411M lb · 2026-03-01

Monthly. Placements (blue) = cattle entering feedlots. Marketings (red) = cattle sold for slaughter. Rising placements vs. marketings = supply building. Data: USDA NASS Cattle on Feed, released ~20th of each month.

DatePlacements (Head)Marketings (Head)
2023-05-011,962,0001,952,000
2023-06-011,679,0001,957,000
2023-07-011,608,0001,722,000
2023-08-012,003,0001,885,000
2023-09-012,198,0001,664,000
2023-10-012,170,0001,763,000
2023-11-011,865,0001,751,000
2023-12-011,698,0001,724,000
2024-01-011,791,0001,843,000
2024-02-011,890,0001,793,000
2024-03-011,752,0001,707,000
2024-04-011,656,0001,872,000
2024-05-012,046,0001,955,000
2024-06-011,564,0001,786,000
2024-07-011,702,0001,855,000
2024-08-011,976,0001,819,000
2024-09-012,156,0001,698,000
2024-10-012,266,0001,845,000
2024-11-011,796,0001,725,000
2024-12-011,642,0001,742,000
2025-01-011,822,0001,869,000
2025-02-011,554,0001,633,000
2025-03-011,843,0001,727,000
2025-04-011,613,0001,825,000
2025-05-011,887,0001,758,000
2025-06-011,441,0001,707,000
2025-07-011,598,0001,749,000
2025-08-011,780,0001,571,000
2025-09-012,021,0001,632,000
2025-10-012,040,0001,698,000
2025-11-011,594,0001,520,000
2025-12-011,555,0001,774,000
2026-01-011,741,0001,626,000
2026-02-011,611,0001,522,000
2026-03-011,709,0001,632,000

Monthly. High cold storage = supply overhang, price headwind. Dotted lines = same months prior year. Data: USDA NASS Cold Storage, released ~22nd of each month.

DateBeef Frozen (M lb)Pork Frozen (M lb)
2023-05-01426532
2023-06-01411487
2023-07-01410471
2023-08-01395469
2023-09-01421462
2023-10-01446438
2023-11-01457416
2023-12-01480427
2024-01-01465463
2024-02-01438459
2024-03-01424463
2024-04-01426499
2024-05-01413482
2024-06-01399475
2024-07-01394453
2024-08-01388455
2024-09-01413459
2024-10-01433426
2024-11-01441392
2024-12-01453397
2025-01-01455407
2025-02-01436423
2025-03-01425409
2025-04-01419456
2025-05-01408451
2025-06-01400419
2025-07-01398405
2025-08-01387389
2025-09-01403393
2025-10-01415376
2025-11-01426371
2025-12-01435387
2026-01-01427404
2026-02-01419403
2026-03-01411411

Cattle-Corn ratio above 30 = profitable to feed cattle (expansion signal). Hog-Corn ratio above 20 = profitable to farrow hogs. Below breakeven = margin squeeze → producers reduce placements.

DateLive Cattle ($/cwt)Lean Hogs ($/cwt)Corn (¢/bu)Cattle-Corn RatioHog-Corn Ratio
2024-04-26184.6894.28440.0042.021.4
2024-05-03176.6892.43447.0039.520.7
2024-05-10176.1591.72455.7538.620.1
2024-05-17181.0596.50452.5040.021.3
2024-05-24183.7094.28464.7539.520.3
2024-05-31181.5594.35446.2540.721.1
2024-06-07182.1892.53448.7540.620.6
2024-06-14186.8291.18450.0041.520.3
2024-06-21187.6092.05435.0043.121.2
2024-06-28193.5089.57397.2548.722.6
2024-07-05186.4389.88411.2545.321.9
2024-07-12182.3888.70400.0045.622.2
2024-07-19183.1091.57390.5046.923.4
2024-07-26188.5793.47394.5047.823.7
2024-08-02184.1092.20386.5047.623.9
2024-08-09184.2589.80376.7548.923.8
2024-08-16182.8075.07370.5049.320.3
2024-08-23182.5780.55367.7549.621.9
2024-08-30185.8582.22378.0049.221.8
2024-09-06175.1879.50383.7545.620.7
2024-09-13177.6578.45390.7545.520.1
2024-09-20182.4882.22401.7545.420.5
2024-09-27183.7582.05418.0044.019.6
2024-10-04187.0084.03424.7544.019.8
2024-10-11188.6084.07415.7545.420.2
2024-10-18187.6277.82404.7546.419.2
2024-10-25189.7079.68415.2545.719.2
2024-11-01185.9384.07414.5044.920.3
2024-11-08183.7080.43431.0042.618.7
2024-11-15182.9579.50424.0043.118.8
2024-11-22186.7781.68425.5043.919.2
2024-11-29187.9882.07423.0044.419.4
2024-12-06187.3883.30430.7543.519.3
2024-12-13193.6583.72430.0045.019.5
2024-12-20191.3285.93446.2542.919.2
2024-12-27193.5084.15454.0042.618.5
2025-01-03194.0580.78450.7543.017.9
2025-01-10198.7782.55470.5042.217.6
2025-01-17196.7581.12484.2540.616.8
2025-01-24204.7782.30486.5042.116.9
2025-01-31204.6084.18482.0042.517.5
2025-02-07200.7787.25487.5041.217.9
2025-02-14197.7589.47496.2539.918.0
2025-02-21197.8287.68491.2540.317.9
2025-02-28197.7383.68453.5043.618.4
2025-03-07200.2787.35455.2544.019.2
2025-03-14203.1886.62445.5045.619.4
2025-03-21206.9586.12464.2544.618.6
2025-03-28208.8286.70453.2546.119.1
2025-04-04202.6287.38460.2544.019.0
2025-04-11202.4885.43490.2541.317.4
2025-04-18209.8290.40482.2543.518.8
2025-04-25214.2592.80478.7544.819.4
2025-05-02211.1092.95461.2545.820.1
2025-05-09214.6890.38441.5048.620.5
2025-05-16212.23100.32443.5047.922.6
2025-05-23215.8098.30459.5047.021.4
2025-05-30215.48101.32444.0048.522.8
2025-06-06226.30102.62442.5051.123.2
2025-06-13225.10103.70444.5050.623.3
2025-06-20223.02112.78428.7552.026.3
2025-06-27224.75113.25417.5053.827.1
2025-07-04214.05107.97431.5049.625.0
2025-07-11222.20106.72403.0055.126.5
2025-07-18223.55106.47408.5054.726.1
2025-07-25226.48108.70399.5056.727.2
2025-08-01230.12107.35389.5059.127.6
2025-08-08232.55108.90382.7560.828.4
2025-08-15236.2590.10383.7561.623.5
2025-08-22239.9591.20388.2561.823.5
2025-08-29241.9095.03398.0060.823.9
2025-09-05235.9896.03399.0059.124.1
2025-09-12229.9897.12399.0057.624.3
2025-09-19233.5797.97424.0055.123.1
2025-09-26231.80101.50422.0054.924.1
2025-10-03231.0298.97419.0055.123.6
2025-10-10238.4897.00413.0057.723.5
2025-10-17240.2582.38422.5056.919.5
2025-10-24233.7581.90423.2555.219.4
2025-10-31236.6081.28431.5054.818.8
2025-11-07221.3579.40427.2551.818.6
2025-11-14219.1578.50430.2550.918.2
2025-11-21214.4577.80425.5050.418.3
2025-11-28215.5780.60435.5049.518.5
2025-12-05227.1581.65436.7552.018.7
2025-12-12229.8083.32431.5053.319.3
2025-12-19230.4084.50443.7551.919.0
2025-12-26229.8284.53450.0051.118.8
2026-01-02236.0084.10437.5053.919.2
2026-01-09233.7385.30445.7552.419.1
2026-01-16232.1588.28424.7554.720.8
2026-01-23234.9088.35430.5054.620.5
2026-01-30235.8587.25428.2555.120.4
2026-02-06237.7587.38430.2555.320.3
2026-02-13243.0786.95431.7556.320.1
2026-02-20246.5793.68427.5057.721.9
2026-02-27244.0095.72438.7555.621.8
2026-03-06234.5795.62447.0052.521.4
2026-03-13230.9093.45452.5051.020.6
2026-03-20234.0591.28465.5050.319.6
2026-03-27238.5090.78462.0051.619.6
2026-04-03246.2090.35452.2554.420.0
2026-04-10251.7790.72441.0057.120.6
2026-04-17249.9593.40448.7555.720.8
2026-04-24248.3094.30455.0054.620.7

D2 = Severe Drought. Covers TX, KS, NE, OK, SD, MT, ND, CO, WY, NM, ID. High D2+ → reduced forage and hay availability → producers liquidate cow-calf herds early (near-term bearish, long-term bullish for prices). Data: US Drought Monitor, released Tuesdays.

DateD2+ Coverage (%)
2025-04-2919.4
2025-05-0619.8
2025-05-1321.7
2025-05-2018.8
2025-05-2716.7
2025-06-0313.2
2025-06-1011.1
2025-06-1710.1
2025-06-2410.3
2025-07-018.9
2025-07-087.5
2025-07-158.0
2025-07-227.7
2025-07-297.6
2025-08-057.1
2025-08-127.9
2025-08-198.1
2025-08-268.0
2025-09-027.6
2025-09-097.5
2025-09-167.1
2025-09-236.8
2025-09-307.0
2025-10-076.8
2025-10-144.5
2025-10-215.0
2025-10-284.6
2025-11-045.4
2025-11-116.9
2025-11-187.7
2025-11-257.0
2025-12-026.7
2025-12-096.7
2025-12-166.7
2025-12-237.5
2025-12-307.7
2026-01-0610.5
2026-01-1311.2
2026-01-2012.4
2026-01-2712.9
2026-02-0314.5
2026-02-1016.5
2026-02-1717.7
2026-02-2420.0
2026-03-0325.6
2026-03-1025.8
2026-03-1731.4
2026-03-2440.7
2026-03-3148.1
2026-04-0746.9
2026-04-1450.3
2026-04-2149.4

Population-weighted apparent temperature for Iowa, N. Carolina, Minnesota, and 10 other hog-producing states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 20–68°F; heat stress above 68°F; cold stress below 20°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-04-2045.749.1thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2161.561.5thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2266.666.6thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2368.568.5mild_heatActual
2026-04-2461.861.8thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2559.559.5thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2658.058.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2760.160.1thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2852.352.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2953.253.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-3053.253.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0151.351.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0251.751.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0355.255.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0459.059.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0559.959.9thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0662.162.1thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0762.862.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0855.555.5thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0954.154.1thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-1056.456.4thermoneutralForecast

Population-weighted apparent temperature for TX Panhandle, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, and 5 other feedlot states. Cold regime: NWS Wind Chill. Hot regime: NWS Heat Index. Thermoneutral 30–75°F; cold stress below 30°F; heat stress above 85°F.

DateApparent Temp (°F)Actual Temp (°F)Thermal ZoneForecast
2026-04-2058.958.9thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2166.266.2thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2267.067.0thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2368.568.5thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2459.759.7thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2558.958.9thermoneutralActual
2026-04-2655.255.2thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2760.560.5thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2854.654.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-2956.656.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-04-3056.856.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0152.652.6thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0252.052.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0355.855.8thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0461.361.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0564.064.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0664.364.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0763.063.0thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0857.757.7thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-0959.359.3thermoneutralForecast
2026-05-1061.161.1thermoneutralForecast
📈 Live Cattle — CFTC COT Positioning
Managed money holds a net position of +134,795 contracts (96th percentile vs. full history since 2010). Week-over-week change: -1,848 contracts.

Managed money net long by week of year, seasonal overlay. Gold line = Live Cattle front-month price (LE=F). Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points.

DateMM Net (contracts)MM WoWCommercial NetOpen Interest
2025-04-29+128,840+8,380-119,430499,498
2025-05-06+133,338+4,498-121,003527,120
2025-05-13+135,594+2,256-125,273533,798
2025-05-20+132,564-3,030-118,529552,411
2025-05-27+131,293-1,271-117,396565,843
2025-06-03+131,805+512-122,261574,244
2025-06-10+137,836+6,030-130,167520,139
2025-06-17+135,250-2,586-126,937518,679
2025-06-24+132,893-2,357-125,634527,319
2025-07-01+129,462-3,432-120,061525,421
2025-07-08+128,423-1,039-114,175522,969
2025-07-15+132,486+4,063-118,379535,724
2025-07-22+131,659-825-118,952549,947
2025-07-29+128,509-3,150-118,138560,009
2025-08-05+125,565-2,945-113,354511,308
2025-08-12+124,813-752-112,877515,604
2025-08-19+124,519-294-115,062529,257
2025-08-26+126,152+1,633-118,866551,154
2025-09-02+130,442+4,290-120,632571,295
2025-09-09+131,003+562-119,676547,703
2025-09-16+127,747-3,256-114,551552,234
2025-09-23+124,903-2,844-115,374549,364
2025-09-30+116,112-8,792-106,909539,732
2025-10-07+116,014-98-108,457492,113
2025-10-14+123,754+7,740-120,009502,856
2025-10-21+124,901+1,148-118,031508,879
2025-10-28+116,355-8,547-102,580528,900
2025-11-04+108,348-8,006-100,794525,008
2025-11-10+101,265-7,083-95,857502,426
2025-11-18+97,331-3,933-90,664510,628
2025-11-25+92,911-4,419-88,973544,815
2025-12-02+82,208-10,703-80,795512,216
2025-12-09+88,290+6,082-84,034443,041
2025-12-16+91,303+3,013-87,667446,928
2025-12-23+94,868+3,564-91,161453,449
2025-12-30+92,975-1,893-91,042454,866
2026-01-06+94,761+1,786-94,393445,732
2026-01-13+101,316+6,555-102,269445,879
2026-01-20+101,477+162-102,259453,665
2026-01-27+105,685+4,209-103,214454,434
2026-02-03+114,531+8,846-109,589464,755
2026-02-10+108,634-5,898-100,832427,229
2026-02-17+116,717+8,083-108,512435,731
2026-02-24+119,013+2,296-108,146452,607
2026-03-03+114,519-4,493-100,337459,972
2026-03-10+109,032-5,487-94,416450,974
2026-03-17+106,615-2,418-93,044444,606
2026-03-24+110,909+4,295-96,663443,751
2026-03-31+123,742+12,833-110,051450,603
2026-04-07+133,265+9,523-118,557440,941
2026-04-14+136,642+3,377-123,593447,345
2026-04-21+134,795-1,848-117,002453,174
Supporting Markets — Feeder Cattle & Lean Hogs
Feeder Cattle  MM net: +18,76593th pct WoW: -2,373
Lean Hogs  MM net: +65,59181th pct WoW: -22,295