World Ending Stocks: 294.81 MMT — near average 58th percentile
vs. WASDE #669: world ending stocks raised by 2.06 MMT (292.75 → 294.81) ▲ +2.06
Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)
| Item |
World |
United States |
World MoM |
| Beg. Stocks | 296.28 | 39.40 | ▲ +0.46 |
| Production | 1,301.07 | 432.34 | ▲ +3.63 |
| Imports | 193.10 | 0.64 | ▲ +0.38 |
| Dom. Total Use | 1,302.55 | 334.53 | ▲ +2.04 |
| Exports | 207.29 | 83.82 | ▲ +0.44 |
| Ending Stocks | 294.81 | 54.02 | ▲ +2.06 |
| Stocks-to-Use % | 19.5% | 12.9% | |
Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2025/26). Source: USDA WASDE.
| Marketing Year | World (MMT) | US (MMT) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 129.86 | 41.26 |
| 08/09 | 149.07 | 42.50 |
| 09/10 | 144.11 | 43.38 |
| 10/11 | 128.19 | 28.64 |
| 11/12 | 132.82 | 25.12 |
| 12/13 | 135.43 | 20.86 |
| 13/14 | 175.03 | 31.29 |
| 14/15 | 209.82 | 43.97 |
| 15/16 | 213.93 | 44.12 |
| 16/17 | 350.75 | 58.25 |
| 17/18 | 341.60 | 54.37 |
| 18/19 | 321.07 | 56.41 |
| 19/20 | 306.37 | 48.76 |
| 20/21 | 292.83 | 31.36 |
| 21/22 | 310.79 | 34.98 |
| 22/23 | 304.77 | 34.55 |
| 23/24 | 315.25 | 44.79 |
| 24/25 | 296.28 | 39.40 |
| 25/26 | 294.81 | 54.02 |
World stocks-to-use ratio. Lower = tighter market, more price-sensitive to supply shocks.
| Marketing Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 14.9 |
| 08/09 | 17.2 |
| 09/10 | 15.7 |
| 10/11 | 13.6 |
| 11/12 | 13.3 |
| 12/13 | 14.1 |
| 13/14 | 16.2 |
| 14/15 | 18.7 |
| 15/16 | 19.7 |
| 16/17 | 28.2 |
| 17/18 | 27.6 |
| 18/19 | 24.2 |
| 19/20 | 23.4 |
| 20/21 | 22.1 |
| 21/22 | 22.1 |
| 22/23 | 22.5 |
| 23/24 | 22.3 |
| 24/25 | 20.6 |
| 25/26 | 19.5 |
World Ending Stocks: 283.12 MMT — above average — mildly bearish 79th percentile
vs. WASDE #669: world ending stocks raised by 6.16 MMT (276.96 → 283.12) ▲ +6.16
Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)
| Item |
World |
United States |
World MoM |
| Beg. Stocks | 259.09 | 23.26 | ▼ -0.54 |
| Production | 844.15 | 54.01 | ▲ +2.03 |
| Imports | 217.62 | 3.40 | ▼ -0.40 |
| Dom. Total Use | 820.12 | 30.66 | ▼ -4.68 |
| Exports | 221.88 | 24.49 | ▼ -0.28 |
| Ending Stocks | 283.12 | 25.52 | ▲ +6.16 |
| Stocks-to-Use % | 27.2% | 46.3% | |
Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2025/26). Source: USDA WASDE.
| Marketing Year | World (MMT) | US (MMT) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 122.66 | 8.32 |
| 08/09 | 166.66 | 17.87 |
| 09/10 | 202.50 | 26.55 |
| 10/11 | 198.90 | 23.47 |
| 11/12 | 198.89 | 20.21 |
| 12/13 | 175.59 | 19.54 |
| 13/14 | 193.92 | 16.07 |
| 14/15 | 217.58 | 20.48 |
| 15/16 | 242.74 | 26.55 |
| 16/17 | 262.31 | 32.13 |
| 17/18 | 283.69 | 29.91 |
| 18/19 | 283.37 | 29.39 |
| 19/20 | 296.83 | 27.99 |
| 20/21 | 286.33 | 23.00 |
| 21/22 | 272.69 | 18.36 |
| 22/23 | 275.42 | 15.50 |
| 23/24 | 269.65 | 18.95 |
| 24/25 | 259.09 | 23.26 |
| 25/26 | 283.12 | 25.52 |
World stocks-to-use ratio. Lower = tighter market, more price-sensitive to supply shocks.
| Marketing Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 16.7 |
| 08/09 | 21.2 |
| 09/10 | 25.8 |
| 10/11 | 25.3 |
| 11/12 | 23.3 |
| 12/13 | 21.5 |
| 13/14 | 22.4 |
| 14/15 | 25.0 |
| 15/16 | 27.5 |
| 16/17 | 28.4 |
| 17/18 | 30.7 |
| 18/19 | 31.2 |
| 19/20 | 31.6 |
| 20/21 | 28.9 |
| 21/22 | 27.4 |
| 22/23 | 27.2 |
| 23/24 | 26.5 |
| 24/25 | 25.4 |
| 25/26 | 27.2 |
World Ending Stocks: 124.79 MMT — historically ample — bearish pressure 95th percentile
vs. WASDE #669: world ending stocks cut by 0.52 MMT (125.31 → 124.79) ▼ -0.52
Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (MMT)
| Item |
World |
United States |
World MoM |
| Beg. Stocks | 124.81 | 8.84 | ▲ +0.97 |
| Production | 427.41 | 115.99 | ▲ +0.23 |
| Imports | 185.63 | 0.68 | ◆ unch |
| Dom. Total Use | 425.88 | 74.07 | ▲ +1.72 |
| Exports | 187.17 | 41.91 | ◆ unch |
| Ending Stocks | 124.79 | 9.52 | ▼ -0.52 |
| Stocks-to-Use % | 20.4% | 8.2% | |
Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2025/26). Source: USDA WASDE.
| Marketing Year | World (MMT) | US (MMT) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 52.96 | 5.58 |
| 08/09 | 42.57 | 3.76 |
| 09/10 | 59.99 | 4.11 |
| 10/11 | 70.11 | 5.85 |
| 11/12 | 53.58 | 4.61 |
| 12/13 | 57.40 | 3.83 |
| 13/14 | 61.77 | 2.50 |
| 14/15 | 77.53 | 5.19 |
| 15/16 | 78.50 | 5.35 |
| 16/17 | 95.65 | 8.21 |
| 17/18 | 99.02 | 11.92 |
| 18/19 | 114.48 | 24.74 |
| 19/20 | 96.84 | 14.28 |
| 20/21 | 100.35 | 6.99 |
| 21/22 | 93.09 | 7.47 |
| 22/23 | 101.79 | 7.19 |
| 23/24 | 115.13 | 9.32 |
| 24/25 | 124.81 | 8.84 |
| 25/26 | 124.79 | 9.52 |
World stocks-to-use ratio. Lower = tighter market, more price-sensitive to supply shocks.
| Marketing Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 17.1 |
| 08/09 | 14.3 |
| 09/10 | 18.1 |
| 10/11 | 20.4 |
| 11/12 | 15.3 |
| 12/13 | 15.9 |
| 13/14 | 15.9 |
| 14/15 | 18.1 |
| 15/16 | 17.6 |
| 16/17 | 20.0 |
| 17/18 | 20.2 |
| 18/19 | 23.2 |
| 19/20 | 18.5 |
| 20/21 | 19.0 |
| 21/22 | 17.9 |
| 22/23 | 18.9 |
| 23/24 | 20.5 |
| 24/25 | 20.9 |
| 25/26 | 20.4 |
World Ending Stocks: 77.04 M Bales — near average 53th percentile
vs. WASDE #669: world ending stocks raised by 0.65 M Bales (76.39 → 77.04) ▲ +0.65
Supply & Demand Balance Sheet — World vs. US (M Bales)
| Item |
World |
United States |
World MoM |
| Beg. Stocks | 74.07 | 4.00 | ▲ +0.31 |
| Production | 121.87 | 13.92 | ▲ +0.88 |
| Imports | 43.75 | 0.01 | ▼ -0.16 |
| Dom. Total Use | 119.14 | 1.60 | ▲ +0.56 |
| Exports | 43.72 | 12.00 | ▼ -0.19 |
| Ending Stocks | 77.04 | 4.40 | ▲ +0.65 |
| Stocks-to-Use % | 47.3% | 32.4% | |
Ending stocks by marketing year — World and US. Red = current (2025/26). Source: USDA WASDE.
| Marketing Year | World (M Bales) | US (M Bales) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 62.66 | 10.04 |
| 08/09 | 60.52 | 6.34 |
| 09/10 | 47.09 | 2.95 |
| 10/11 | 49.44 | 2.60 |
| 11/12 | 73.44 | 3.35 |
| 12/13 | 90.04 | 3.80 |
| 13/14 | 102.86 | 2.35 |
| 14/15 | 111.74 | 3.65 |
| 15/16 | 94.91 | 3.80 |
| 16/17 | 80.40 | 2.75 |
| 17/18 | 80.74 | 4.20 |
| 18/19 | 79.95 | 4.85 |
| 19/20 | 97.05 | 7.25 |
| 20/21 | 86.30 | 3.15 |
| 21/22 | 76.32 | 4.05 |
| 22/23 | 75.90 | 4.65 |
| 23/24 | 73.30 | 3.15 |
| 24/25 | 74.07 | 4.00 |
| 25/26 | 77.04 | 4.40 |
World stocks-to-use ratio. Lower = tighter market, more price-sensitive to supply shocks.
| Marketing Year | Stocks-to-Use (%) |
|---|
| 07/08 | 38.8 |
| 08/09 | 43.2 |
| 09/10 | 30.5 |
| 10/11 | 33.1 |
| 11/12 | 49.3 |
| 12/13 | 58.3 |
| 13/14 | 68.2 |
| 14/15 | 76.2 |
| 15/16 | 64.5 |
| 16/17 | 52.2 |
| 17/18 | 49.1 |
| 18/19 | 49.3 |
| 19/20 | 67.0 |
| 20/21 | 50.1 |
| 21/22 | 47.9 |
| 22/23 | 50.8 |
| 23/24 | 46.1 |
| 24/25 | 45.8 |
| 25/26 | 47.3 |
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