Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica — May 01, 2026
Data through: COT: 04/28/2026 · Weather: Apr Dkd 3
Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/arabica_coffee_report_1024f98f.html
COT POSITIONING — KC ARABICA:
Managed Money +29,410 cts 66th pct moderately long
Open Interest 205,885 cts 25th pct
CROP WATER STRESS — CWSI DEVIATION:
Brazil Arabica +0.18 Near Normal
Colombia -0.70 Below Normal — Good Conditions
Ethiopia -0.45 Near Normal
At a Glance
All readings as of most recent available data
MM Net Position
+29,410 cts
Managed money long minus short · 66th pct since 2006
Managed money is moderately long (66th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 29,410 contracts. Week-over-week change: +5,579 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are neutral to long (52th percentile).
KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06
33.7
57.9
41.1
Jan 13
34.5
60.5
42.1
Jan 20
32.5
62.9
42.7
Jan 27
35.2
65.6
46.1
Feb 03
23.9
65.7
48.6
Feb 10
16.8
60.2
48.2
Feb 17
14.7
59.6
50.5
Feb 24
12.9
57.9
45.8
Mar 03
12.4
54.9
42.7
Mar 10
14.8
52.4
43.4
Mar 17
18.6
51.4
47.1
Mar 24
23.9
53.7
42.4
Mar 31
25.5
49.3
47.9
Apr 07
22.7
37.4
57.3
Apr 14
26.3
33.1
66.9
Apr 21
23.8
34.9
71.8
Apr 28
29.4
41.6
68.2
Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan 06
203.5
251.3
273.8
Jan 13
201.5
239.2
269.5
Jan 20
202.4
241.8
264.3
Jan 27
207.0
259.9
268.7
Feb 03
226.5
267.9
273.3
Feb 10
226.1
273.5
280.7
Feb 17
192.4
217.8
252.2
Feb 24
202.2
215.8
236.0
Mar 03
208.6
218.9
239.5
Mar 10
206.2
222.4
247.5
Mar 17
210.7
219.2
244.4
Mar 24
217.8
224.5
248.7
Mar 31
217.6
224.9
267.0
Apr 07
219.4
225.1
282.6
Apr 14
199.4
181.5
295.6
Apr 21
196.8
177.9
287.0
Apr 28
205.9
196.9
290.6
Crop Conditions Overview
CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average across all arabica regions
Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year.
Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) ·
Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk).
Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year.
Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.
Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar).
Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.
Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.
Brazil Arabica — Seasonal Detail
Minas Gerais / São Paulo · Primary arabica production zone
Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Near Normal (+0.18) · Colombia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.70) · Ethiopia: Near Normal (-0.45) · Central America: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.00). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.
CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-0.040
-4.080
-5.000
Jan-2
1.940
-1.110
4.140
Jan-3
-1.850
1.190
-3.040
Feb-1
-2.320
1.350
0.370
Feb-2
0.450
1.540
-1.210
Feb-3
-2.880
1.820
-0.550
Mar-1
-1.050
3.830
0.550
Mar-2
-1.250
2.460
1.890
Mar-3
0.270
0.460
-0.890
Apr-1
0.130
0.840
0.200
Apr-2
0.190
-0.550
0.230
Apr-3
0.180
-0.290
0.290
Soil moisture fraction. Values below the grey envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.360
0.420
0.330
Jan-2
0.360
0.430
0.360
Jan-3
0.390
0.410
0.370
Feb-1
0.410
0.410
0.390
Feb-2
0.410
0.390
0.390
Feb-3
0.410
0.360
0.420
Mar-1
0.420
0.340
0.400
Mar-2
0.430
0.330
0.390
Mar-3
0.430
0.330
0.390
Apr-1
0.410
0.320
0.390
Apr-2
0.400
0.320
0.380
Apr-3
0.380
0.330
0.360
10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the grey historical envelope.
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
71.600
99.700
100.600
Jan-2
45.500
69.700
24.500
Jan-3
90.600
47.100
106.500
Feb-1
98.500
27.100
42.600
Feb-2
25.000
0.000
76.100
Feb-3
104.100
0.000
50.600
Mar-1
13.900
0.000
34.400
Mar-2
67.400
20.100
5.300
Mar-3
23.700
34.800
64.900
Apr-1
11.300
11.900
12.300
Apr-2
0.000
39.000
0.000
Apr-3
0.000
17.100
0.000
Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the grey envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
23.900
23.400
23.800
Jan-2
23.700
23.400
25.400
Jan-3
22.600
24.800
23.600
Feb-1
23.700
24.000
23.900
Feb-2
24.100
25.300
23.900
Feb-3
22.800
25.300
24.400
Mar-1
23.500
25.000
24.900
Mar-2
23.400
25.600
25.700
Mar-3
22.900
24.100
23.600
Apr-1
23.200
23.600
23.800
Apr-2
22.400
23.100
23.500
Apr-3
23.100
22.600
23.700
Colombia — Seasonal Detail
Andean growing region · Bimodal rainfall · Year-round harvest
Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-5.000
-2.620
-0.670
Jan-2
-4.380
-5.000
-5.000
Jan-3
-5.000
5.000
-5.000
Feb-1
-0.150
1.940
-0.470
Feb-2
1.380
1.480
-0.380
Feb-3
-0.220
1.920
0.030
Mar-1
-0.910
-0.720
0.090
Mar-2
-1.750
0.490
0.680
Mar-3
0.070
-0.380
-1.630
Apr-1
-0.930
0.890
-0.030
Apr-2
-0.590
-0.830
-0.070
Apr-3
-0.700
0.300
0.720
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.420
0.440
0.410
Jan-2
0.440
0.420
0.400
Jan-3
0.430
0.400
0.380
Feb-1
0.440
0.400
0.380
Feb-2
0.430
0.410
0.390
Feb-3
0.440
0.420
0.380
Mar-1
0.430
0.430
0.370
Mar-2
0.420
0.440
0.380
Mar-3
0.420
0.440
0.380
Apr-1
0.430
0.450
0.400
Apr-2
0.450
0.450
0.400
Apr-3
0.450
0.460
0.430
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
116.900
98.100
18.100
Jan-2
89.600
30.600
35.900
Jan-3
103.900
67.200
11.500
Feb-1
94.600
82.700
94.100
Feb-2
93.500
104.700
38.000
Feb-3
57.700
104.900
14.500
Mar-1
21.800
93.000
43.000
Mar-2
48.500
126.300
87.800
Mar-3
88.100
108.000
68.800
Apr-1
90.500
155.100
105.800
Apr-2
112.100
99.000
81.700
Apr-3
105.400
162.100
184.000
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
20.700
20.900
22.200
Jan-2
20.600
21.500
22.700
Jan-3
21.100
21.400
23.400
Feb-1
21.100
21.700
22.000
Feb-2
20.900
21.500
23.000
Feb-3
21.500
21.300
23.000
Mar-1
21.800
21.400
23.100
Mar-2
21.800
21.200
23.300
Mar-3
21.800
21.800
22.900
Apr-1
21.500
21.100
22.300
Apr-2
21.500
22.000
23.200
Apr-3
21.300
21.100
21.600
Ethiopia — Seasonal Detail
Jimma / Sidama / Yirgacheffe · Africa's largest arabica producer
Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the grey envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-0.050
0.230
0.130
Jan-2
-0.180
-0.640
0.160
Jan-3
-0.510
0.220
0.470
Feb-1
0.470
-0.060
0.460
Feb-2
0.220
-1.000
0.740
Feb-3
0.740
-1.000
-0.790
Mar-1
-0.610
-0.650
0.500
Mar-2
-0.230
0.210
-0.780
Mar-3
-1.540
-0.050
0.010
Apr-1
-0.230
0.850
-0.710
Apr-2
0.660
-0.850
0.940
Apr-3
-0.450
3.770
-1.900
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.310
0.320
0.340
Jan-2
0.300
0.310
0.330
Jan-3
0.300
0.300
0.320
Feb-1
0.290
0.300
0.310
Feb-2
0.290
0.290
0.310
Feb-3
0.280
0.290
0.300
Mar-1
0.290
0.280
0.300
Mar-2
0.290
0.280
0.300
Mar-3
0.320
0.300
0.300
Apr-1
0.350
0.310
0.310
Apr-2
0.350
0.320
0.330
Apr-3
0.360
0.330
0.340
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Jan-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Jan-3
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-3
0.000
0.000
0.000
Mar-1
0.000
12.600
5.200
Mar-2
32.700
18.100
0.000
Mar-3
107.900
49.800
23.000
Apr-1
46.100
0.000
65.500
Apr-2
24.300
73.800
25.000
Apr-3
69.000
29.400
86.700
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
20.200
20.400
20.800
Jan-2
20.700
20.800
21.400
Jan-3
22.000
21.000
21.600
Feb-1
21.600
21.700
21.500
Feb-2
22.100
22.600
22.500
Feb-3
21.900
22.800
23.200
Mar-1
21.300
23.000
22.800
Mar-2
21.300
21.500
23.700
Mar-3
19.600
20.800
22.600
Apr-1
20.300
22.000
20.900
Apr-2
21.000
20.600
22.500
Apr-3
20.600
21.100
21.000
Central America — Seasonal Detail
Guatemala / Honduras / Costa Rica / El Salvador · High-altitude washed arabica
Central America’s arabica harvest runs November–March. The May–October rainy season drives crop development — sustained moisture stress during this window is the primary supply risk. Guatemala’s western highlands and Honduras’s mountain regions dominate regional volume.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
0.240
-0.550
0.240
Jan-2
0.030
0.210
-0.090
Jan-3
0.170
0.110
0.010
Feb-1
-1.000
1.070
-1.000
Feb-2
-1.000
2.060
-0.630
Feb-3
-1.910
0.260
-1.000
Mar-1
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
Mar-2
-0.910
-1.000
-1.000
Mar-3
-1.060
-1.000
-1.000
Apr-1
-0.960
-0.680
-1.000
Apr-2
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
Apr-3
-1.000
-1.750
-1.000
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.360
0.380
0.350
Jan-2
0.340
0.370
0.340
Jan-3
0.340
0.360
0.320
Feb-1
0.330
0.350
0.320
Feb-2
0.320
0.340
0.300
Feb-3
0.310
0.330
0.290
Mar-1
0.300
0.320
0.280
Mar-2
0.290
0.300
0.270
Mar-3
0.290
0.290
0.260
Apr-1
0.290
0.280
0.250
Apr-2
0.280
0.280
0.250
Apr-3
0.280
0.280
0.250
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
0.000
38.600
0.000
Jan-2
18.200
0.000
4.800
Jan-3
12.200
28.400
5.000
Feb-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-3
12.100
4.200
0.000
Mar-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Mar-2
9.600
0.000
0.000
Mar-3
23.700
0.000
0.000
Apr-1
11.400
20.600
0.000
Apr-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Apr-3
0.000
4.900
0.000
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
21.400
21.800
22.700
Jan-2
21.500
22.400
23.500
Jan-3
21.700
22.100
23.000
Feb-1
19.500
22.700
22.100
Feb-2
22.400
23.000
23.700
Feb-3
22.400
23.200
22.600
Mar-1
23.400
24.000
25.000
Mar-2
23.500
24.400
25.700
Mar-3
22.600
24.300
26.200
Apr-1
23.900
24.600
26.000
Apr-2
24.200
23.800
25.700
Apr-3
25.100
24.500
25.900
Origin Deforestation Risk
GFW GLAD alerts · Vegetation stress · Supply chain data — Arabica growing regions
Deforestation risk index for each arabica growing region, combining Global Forest Watch
GLAD deforestation alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data.
This index reflects regional land-use pressure — not your specific supplier's compliance status.
Data is updated when GFW and Trase datasets refresh. Source: Global Forest Watch, Trase.earth, ERA5-Land.
Brazil Arabica
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 58,899,333 ha
Colombia
73 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 10,762,659 ha
Ethiopia
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 32,303,506 ha
Risk index (0–100) combining GFW GLAD alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data. Red line = High threshold (60). Gold line = Moderate threshold (40). Higher score = greater deforestation pressure in the production region.