Coffee Market Intelligence — Robusta

At a Glance

All readings as of most recent available data

MM Net Position

+12,215 lots

Managed money long minus short · 51th pct since 2011

51th pct

Commercial Net

-8,717 lots

Producers & merchants net · 48th pct

48th pct

Open Interest

104,338 lots

Total futures open interest

11th pct

Vietnam

-5.62

CWSI Dev — Apr Dkd 3

Well Below Normal — Favorable

Brazil Robusta

+0.08

CWSI Dev — Apr Dkd 3

Near Normal

Indonesia Robusta

+0.04

CWSI Dev — Apr Dkd 3

Near Normal

Market Positioning

ICE EU Disaggregated Commitments of Traders — Robusta Coffee Futures (Liffe)

Managed money is neutral (51th percentile vs. full ICE EU history since 2011), net long 12,215 lots. Note: unlike KC Arabica where commercials reliably run net-short hedges, robusta commercials include active traders who can sit on either side — commercial net position (-8,717 lots, 48th pct) should be read in trend context rather than as a contrarian extreme.

RC Coffee continuous contract ($/t) by week of year. Overlapping years reveal seasonal price trajectory vs prior years.

Managed money net long (long minus short) by week of year — overlapping years since 2011.

Date	2026 ('000 lots)	2025 ('000 lots)	2024 ('000 lots)
Jan 06	3.5	20.4	33.3
Jan 13	4.1	18.1	34.2
Jan 20	6.9	19.1	43.7
Jan 27	14.1	24.0	40.7
Feb 03	10.4	25.8	44.1
Feb 10	3.6	26.6	44.3
Feb 17	2.2	29.1	45.9
Feb 24	-0.7	29.9	44.0
Mar 03	2.7	26.9	38.5
Mar 10	4.4	25.1	41.2
Mar 17	-1.9	24.5	43.0
Mar 24	3.7	25.9	42.1
Mar 31	-0.6	21.3	42.7
Apr 07	0.3	14.5	43.9
Apr 14	-0.4	8.9	39.2
Apr 21	2.5	10.2	35.4
Apr 28	12.2	17.3	30.1

Commercial net position (producer/merchant long minus short). In the robusta market the commercial category includes active traders who can be net long, so an upward trend here is worth watching rather than mechanically fading.

Date	2026 ('000 lots)	2025 ('000 lots)	2024 ('000 lots)
Jan 06	9.6	-17.8	-27.2
Jan 13	8.1	-12.3	-28.6
Jan 20	4.2	-15.9	-38.0
Jan 27	-6.9	-21.4	-37.8
Feb 03	-2.6	-24.8	-42.7
Feb 10	1.5	-23.0	-43.7
Feb 17	4.3	-24.1	-46.7
Feb 24	8.9	-21.7	-43.7
Mar 03	3.4	-20.2	-37.4
Mar 10	2.8	-18.5	-41.0
Mar 17	9.2	-16.4	-44.4
Mar 24	2.2	-17.2	-43.2
Mar 31	6.4	-10.3	-44.2
Apr 07	7.0	-2.1	-46.0
Apr 14	6.1	2.5	-43.0
Apr 21	2.8	-0.4	-39.6
Apr 28	-8.7	-7.5	-36.0

Total open interest in lots (1 lot = 10 tonnes). Expanding OI on a price move confirms new money entering; declining OI suggests position liquidation.

Date	2026 ('000 lots)	2025 ('000 lots)	2024 ('000 lots)
Jan 06	83.4	77.7	129.4
Jan 13	87.3	78.8	139.6
Jan 20	90.8	84.1	157.4
Jan 27	96.6	91.2	162.1
Feb 03	97.4	91.4	163.4
Feb 10	105.4	100.8	168.1
Feb 17	109.6	98.2	167.7
Feb 24	96.6	87.0	172.6
Mar 03	101.0	88.0	124.5
Mar 10	101.4	85.3	129.8
Mar 17	109.3	84.1	136.2
Mar 24	106.4	86.8	134.5
Mar 31	111.7	88.6	134.9
Apr 07	112.7	94.4	140.9
Apr 14	115.1	92.3	144.7
Apr 21	104.5	84.6	145.8
Apr 28	104.3	87.9	113.9

Crop Conditions Overview

CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average, robusta growing regions

Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for that month and year. Green = less stress than historical average (favorable) · Red = more stress (drought / heat risk). Vietnam and Brazil robusta have different crop calendars — compare columns within each heatmap rather than across them.

Indonesia Robusta (Lampung / South Sumatra) — harvest May–Sep. Dry season stress Jun–Sep is the key production risk.

Brazil Robusta (Espírito Santo) — harvest Apr–Aug. Flowering Sept–Oct means stress here impacts next year.

Vietnam — main crop harvested Oct–Feb. Key stress window: Jul–Sep dry season before flowering.

Vietnam — Seasonal Detail

CWSI deviation from climatological normal. Vietnam's main robusta crop is harvested October–February (off-season Jul–Sep). The Central Highlands (Dak Lak, Lam Dong) receive most rainfall Apr–Oct. Drought stress in the July–September dry season is the key production risk.

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-1.000	-0.240	-1.000
Jan-2	-1.000	-0.230	-1.000
Jan-3	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Feb-1	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Feb-2	-0.690	-1.000	-1.000
Feb-3	-1.300	-1.300	-1.000
Mar-1	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Mar-2	-1.000	-1.000	-1.000
Mar-3	-1.000	-1.000	-2.000
Apr-1	-1.000	3.000	-1.000
Apr-2	-1.510	-1.380	-1.000
Apr-3	-5.000	-5.000	-1.000

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.390	0.420	0.370
Jan-2	0.370	0.410	0.350
Jan-3	0.360	0.390	0.350
Feb-1	0.350	0.370	0.340
Feb-2	0.340	0.360	0.330
Feb-3	0.330	0.360	0.320
Mar-1	0.330	0.350	0.320
Mar-2	0.330	0.340	0.310
Mar-3	0.320	0.330	0.310
Apr-1	0.310	0.330	0.300
Apr-2	0.310	0.320	0.300
Apr-3	0.300	0.320	0.300

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jan-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Jan-3	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Feb-3	20.000	13.700	0.000
Mar-1	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mar-2	0.000	0.000	0.000
Mar-3	0.000	0.000	6.300
Apr-1	0.000	5.300	0.000
Apr-2	6.100	4.900	0.000
Apr-3	18.000	18.400	0.000

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	19.000	19.900	22.600
Jan-2	20.900	19.400	22.300
Jan-3	20.500	20.400	22.100
Feb-1	22.100	21.100	24.400
Feb-2	23.000	23.100	23.900
Feb-3	24.000	22.500	24.800
Mar-1	22.600	24.500	25.600
Mar-2	22.800	24.000	25.500
Mar-3	25.400	24.600	26.300
Apr-1	27.400	24.800	27.300
Apr-2	26.300	25.900	27.900
Apr-3	25.900	26.200	29.000

Brazil Robusta — Seasonal Detail

CWSI deviation from climatological normal. Espírito Santo produces ~80% of Brazil's robusta. Harvest runs April–August. Flowering in September–October means late-season stress has outsized impact on the following year's crop.

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	0.010	-0.840	-1.310
Jan-2	0.590	-1.790	1.840
Jan-3	-0.010	1.160	-2.950
Feb-1	0.290	0.600	-0.010
Feb-2	0.330	0.290	-0.960
Feb-3	-2.260	0.590	-0.810
Mar-1	-0.720	1.030	-0.040
Mar-2	-0.050	0.220	0.490
Mar-3	-0.210	0.650	0.330
Apr-1	0.030	0.870	-0.220
Apr-2	0.080	-0.100	0.120
Apr-3	0.080	0.000	0.060

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.290	0.320	0.260
Jan-2	0.290	0.350	0.290
Jan-3	0.310	0.350	0.320
Feb-1	0.310	0.330	0.360
Feb-2	0.310	0.320	0.360
Feb-3	0.320	0.300	0.390
Mar-1	0.380	0.290	0.380
Mar-2	0.370	0.270	0.360
Mar-3	0.370	0.270	0.340
Apr-1	0.350	0.260	0.330
Apr-2	0.340	0.260	0.320
Apr-3	0.320	0.260	0.310

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	55.200	77.000	87.100
Jan-2	27.800	97.500	0.000
Jan-3	52.300	0.000	156.800
Feb-1	35.300	4.500	32.100
Feb-2	22.000	0.000	71.400
Feb-3	117.900	0.000	55.900
Mar-1	0.000	0.000	27.500
Mar-2	22.200	0.000	0.000
Mar-3	24.900	13.600	5.700
Apr-1	4.600	0.000	22.300
Apr-2	0.000	24.600	0.000
Apr-3	0.000	11.500	0.000

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	25.000	24.900	24.700
Jan-2	24.500	23.700	26.300
Jan-3	24.000	25.400	24.500
Feb-1	25.400	25.000	24.600
Feb-2	24.800	25.800	24.500
Feb-3	23.500	25.600	24.400
Mar-1	24.800	25.200	25.400
Mar-2	24.700	26.700	26.200
Mar-3	23.600	25.400	25.500
Apr-1	24.200	25.200	24.800
Apr-2	23.700	24.800	24.400
Apr-3	23.800	24.600	24.400

Indonesia Robusta — Seasonal Detail

CWSI deviation from climatological normal. Indonesia is the world's third-largest robusta producer. Lampung (South Sumatra) and Flores are the key growing regions. Main harvest runs May–September. The dry season (June–September) during cherry development is the primary weather risk.

Dekad	2026 (dev)	2025 (dev)	2024 (dev)
Jan-1	-0.330	-1.600	1.500
Jan-2	-0.870	0.360	2.780
Jan-3	-2.420	0.280	-1.200
Feb-1	0.160	-3.750	0.790
Feb-2	0.500	1.290	1.690
Feb-3	-2.020	2.680	-0.150
Mar-1	-0.840	1.710	1.770
Mar-2	-1.360	0.290	-3.140
Mar-3	-2.650	-2.040	-1.880
Apr-1	0.560	0.030	0.690
Apr-2	-1.110	3.400	-0.020
Apr-3	0.040	-3.150	3.070

Dekad	2026 (fraction)	2025 (fraction)	2024 (fraction)
Jan-1	0.450	0.430	0.420
Jan-2	0.440	0.440	0.460
Jan-3	0.430	0.460	0.440
Feb-1	0.440	0.420	0.460
Feb-2	0.450	0.410	0.450
Feb-3	0.440	0.460	0.450
Mar-1	0.430	0.460	0.460
Mar-2	0.440	0.450	0.430
Mar-3	0.430	0.420	0.390
Apr-1	0.440	0.440	0.420
Apr-2	0.450	0.460	0.450
Apr-3	0.450	0.440	0.460

Dekad	2026 (mm)	2025 (mm)	2024 (mm)
Jan-1	89.400	54.900	141.400
Jan-2	75.700	94.500	139.800
Jan-3	54.200	109.200	75.600
Feb-1	101.900	23.700	118.300
Feb-2	105.000	121.800	127.800
Feb-3	32.200	132.200	85.000
Mar-1	20.000	153.800	152.800
Mar-2	74.900	104.900	17.500
Mar-3	36.800	59.400	64.300
Apr-1	118.000	102.100	120.800
Apr-2	72.400	147.700	87.500
Apr-3	85.000	47.000	103.400

Dekad	2026 (°C)	2025 (°C)	2024 (°C)
Jan-1	24.500	25.100	25.300
Jan-2	24.500	24.800	25.100
Jan-3	24.700	24.600	25.800
Feb-1	24.600	25.500	25.300
Feb-2	24.800	25.100	25.700
Feb-3	25.400	24.600	25.800
Mar-1	25.000	25.200	25.600
Mar-2	25.200	24.900	26.100
Mar-3	25.500	25.700	26.200
Apr-1	25.300	25.200	26.000
Apr-2	25.500	25.100	26.000
Apr-3	25.800	25.400	26.000

Origin Deforestation Risk

GFW GLAD alerts · Vegetation stress · Supply chain data — Robusta growing regions

Deforestation risk index for each robusta growing region, combining Global Forest Watch GLAD deforestation alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data. This index reflects regional land-use pressure — not your specific supplier's compliance status. Source: Global Forest Watch, Trase.earth, ERA5-Land.

Vietnam

73 / 100

Risk Index · High

GLAD alerts: 350,972 ha

Brazil Robusta

76 / 100

Risk Index · High

GLAD alerts: 4,375,196 ha

Indonesia

88 / 100

Risk Index · Critical

GLAD alerts: 3,468,605 ha

Risk index (0–100) combining GFW GLAD alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data. Red line = High threshold (60). Gold line = Moderate threshold (40). Higher score = greater deforestation pressure in the production region.