Coffee Market Intelligence — KC Arabica — May 08, 2026
Data through: COT: 05/05/2026 · Weather: May Dkd 1
Source: SoftSignal Research | https://reports.getsoftsignal.com/2026/arabica_coffee_report_550d621e.html
COT POSITIONING — KC ARABICA:
Managed Money +31,035 cts 68th pct moderately long
Open Interest 213,086 cts 31th pct
CROP WATER STRESS — CWSI DEVIATION:
Brazil Arabica -0.77 Below Normal — Good Conditions
Colombia -0.68 Below Normal — Good Conditions
Ethiopia +3.50 Well Above Normal — High Stress
At a Glance
All readings as of most recent available data
MM Net Position
+31,035 cts
Managed money long minus short · 68th pct since 2006
68th pct
Commercial Net
-5,019 cts
Producers & merchants net · 49th pct
49th pct
Open Interest
213,086 cts
Total futures open interest
31th pct
Brazil Arabica
-0.77
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 1
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Colombia
-0.68
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 1
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Ethiopia
+3.50
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 1
Well Above Normal — High Stress
Central America
-1.00
CWSI Dev — May Dkd 1
Below Normal — Good Conditions
Supply & Demand
USDA PSD world balance sheet · CONAB Brazil · BRL/USD
World Stocks-to-Use
11.6%
Historically tight · 2025 · 2th pct
Brazil Production
63,000
1,000 × 60kg bags · 2025 USDA est.
Brazil Total (CONAB)
66.2M bags
2026 1st Survey · +9.7M YoY
Arabica / Conilon Split
44.1M / 22.1M
Conilon 33.4% of Brazil total · 2026 1st Survey
BRL / USD
4.8976
Strong real (↓ BRL/USD) = sellers hold back · 1yr: 4.90–5.74
World ending stocks ÷ world domestic consumption. 20-year window. Lower = tighter supply, price supportive. Gold dashed line = 20-year average. Source: USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution.
Market Year
Stocks-to-Use (%)
06/07
28.7%
07/08
24.4%
08/09
31.5%
09/10
20.7%
10/11
21.1%
11/12
18.0%
12/13
24.7%
13/14
28.6%
14/15
29.3%
15/16
22.8%
16/17
23.5%
17/18
19.9%
18/19
22.3%
19/20
22.1%
20/21
23.1%
21/22
19.0%
22/23
16.0%
23/24
14.1%
24/25
12.4%
25/26
11.6%
World stocks-to-use from USDA FAS Production, Supply & Distribution (PSD). CONAB figures show latest Brazil survey estimate. BRL/USD from FRED. A weaker Brazilian real (higher BRL/USD) increases seller willingness in Brazil — the world's largest coffee producer — and tends to pressure KC and RC futures prices.
Managed money is moderately long (68th percentile vs. full history since 2006) with a net long of 31,035 contracts. Week-over-week change: +1,625 contracts. Commercial hedgers (producers & merchants) are moderately short (49th percentile).
KC Coffee continuous contract (¢/lb) by week of year, overlapping across all available years. The red line shows where 2026 stands against prior seasonal trajectories.
Managed money (hedge funds & CTAs) net long position by week of year — overlapping all years since 2006. Extreme readings historically coincide with price turning points. Data: CFTC Disaggregated COT, released Fridays.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan
33.7
57.9
41.1
Jan
34.5
60.5
42.1
Jan
32.5
62.9
42.7
Jan
35.2
65.6
46.1
Feb
23.9
65.7
48.6
Feb
16.8
60.2
48.2
Feb
14.7
59.6
50.5
Feb
12.9
57.9
45.8
Mar
12.4
54.9
42.7
Mar
14.8
52.4
43.4
Mar
18.6
51.4
47.1
Mar
23.9
53.7
42.4
Mar
25.5
49.3
47.9
Apr
22.7
37.4
57.3
Apr
26.3
33.1
66.9
Apr
23.8
34.9
71.8
Apr
29.4
41.6
68.2
May
31.0
41.7
68.3
Total open interest. Expanding OI on a price rally confirms participation; shrinking OI on a rally suggests short-covering with limited new buying.
Date
2026 ('000 cts)
2025 ('000 cts)
2024 ('000 cts)
Jan
203.5
251.3
273.8
Jan
201.5
239.2
269.5
Jan
202.4
241.8
264.3
Jan
207.0
259.9
268.7
Feb
226.5
267.9
273.3
Feb
226.1
273.5
280.7
Feb
192.4
217.8
252.2
Feb
202.2
215.8
236.0
Mar
208.6
218.9
239.5
Mar
206.2
222.4
247.5
Mar
210.7
219.2
244.4
Mar
217.8
224.5
248.7
Mar
217.6
224.9
267.0
Apr
219.4
225.1
282.6
Apr
199.4
181.5
295.6
Apr
196.8
177.9
287.0
Apr
205.9
196.9
290.6
May
213.1
193.7
289.5
Crop Conditions Overview
CWSI deviation from climatological normal — monthly average across all arabica regions
Each cell shows the mean crop-water-stress deviation for a given month and year.
Green = less stress than historical average (favorable conditions) ·
Red = more stress than average (drought / heat risk).
Reading across a row reveals the seasonal stress pattern for that year.
Reading down a column reveals how current conditions compare to the same month in prior years.
Brazil Arabica — primary Minas Gerais / São Paulo growing region. Key risk windows: flowering (Sept–Nov) and grain fill (Jan–Mar). Most recent dekads are preliminary ERA5/GFS data — subject to revision.
Colombia — bimodal rainfall; two flowering windows (Mar–May, Sept–Nov). Watch for stress in either peak to assess mid-year and year-end supply.
Ethiopia — Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct) drive the main crop; Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Stress in June–August is the highest-impact risk period.
Brazil Arabica — Seasonal Detail
Minas Gerais / São Paulo · Primary arabica production zone
Crop-water-stress deviations from climatological norms: Brazil Arabica: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.77) · Colombia: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-0.68) · Ethiopia: Well Above Normal — High Stress (+3.50) · Central America: Below Normal — Good Conditions (-1.00). Values below zero indicate lower stress than the long-run average — favorable for yield.
CWSI deviation from normal per dekad. Zero = historical average; negative = below-normal stress; positive = above-normal stress. The horizontal zero line is the long-run climatological normal. Most recent dekads are preliminary ERA5/GFS data — subject to revision.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-0.040
-4.080
-5.000
Jan-2
1.940
-1.110
4.140
Jan-3
-1.850
1.190
-3.040
Feb-1
-2.320
1.350
0.370
Feb-2
0.450
1.540
-1.210
Feb-3
-2.880
1.820
-0.550
Mar-1
-1.050
3.830
0.550
Mar-2
-1.250
2.460
1.890
Mar-3
0.270
0.460
-0.890
Apr-1
0.130
0.840
0.200
Apr-2
0.190
-0.550
0.230
Apr-3
0.180
-0.290
0.290
May-1
-0.770
0.150
0.360
Soil moisture fraction. Values below the grey envelope during flowering or grain-fill are a key supply risk.
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.360
0.420
0.330
Jan-2
0.360
0.430
0.360
Jan-3
0.390
0.410
0.370
Feb-1
0.410
0.410
0.390
Feb-2
0.410
0.390
0.390
Feb-3
0.410
0.360
0.420
Mar-1
0.420
0.340
0.400
Mar-2
0.430
0.330
0.390
Mar-3
0.430
0.330
0.390
Apr-1
0.410
0.320
0.390
Apr-2
0.400
0.320
0.380
Apr-3
0.380
0.330
0.360
May-1
0.360
0.330
0.340
10-day accumulated rainfall (mm). Track cumulative deviations from the grey historical envelope.
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
71.600
99.700
100.600
Jan-2
45.500
69.700
24.500
Jan-3
90.600
47.100
106.500
Feb-1
98.500
27.100
42.600
Feb-2
25.000
0.000
76.100
Feb-3
104.100
0.000
50.600
Mar-1
13.900
0.000
34.400
Mar-2
67.400
20.100
5.300
Mar-3
23.700
34.800
64.900
Apr-1
11.300
11.900
12.300
Apr-2
0.000
39.000
0.000
Apr-3
0.000
17.100
0.000
May-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Average temperature by dekad. Sustained temperature above the grey envelope during flowering risks fruit abortion.
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
23.900
23.400
23.800
Jan-2
23.700
23.400
25.400
Jan-3
22.600
24.800
23.600
Feb-1
23.700
24.000
23.900
Feb-2
24.100
25.300
23.900
Feb-3
22.800
25.300
24.400
Mar-1
23.500
25.000
24.900
Mar-2
23.400
25.600
25.700
Mar-3
22.900
24.100
23.600
Apr-1
23.200
23.600
23.800
Apr-2
22.400
23.100
23.500
Apr-3
23.100
22.600
23.700
May-1
23.100
21.500
23.700
Running count of dekads year-to-date where average temperature exceeded the climatological normal. An accelerating slope relative to prior years indicates persistent above-normal heat accumulation — a risk to flowering induction and dry-season recovery.
Dekad
2026 (dkd)
2025 (dkd)
2024 (dkd)
Jan-1
1.000
0.000
1.000
Jan-2
1.000
0.000
2.000
Jan-3
1.000
1.000
2.000
Feb-1
1.000
2.000
2.000
Feb-2
2.000
3.000
2.000
Feb-3
2.000
4.000
3.000
Mar-1
2.000
5.000
4.000
Mar-2
2.000
6.000
5.000
Mar-3
2.000
7.000
6.000
Apr-1
3.000
8.000
7.000
Apr-2
3.000
9.000
8.000
Apr-3
4.000
10.000
9.000
May-1
5.000
11.000
10.000
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Integrates both frequency and magnitude of above-normal heat. Elevated readings during Brazil's dry winter months signal risk of degraded flower-bud induction and reduced phenological recovery before the spring flush.
Dekad
2026 (°C·dkd)
2025 (°C·dkd)
2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1
0.300
0.000
0.200
Jan-2
0.300
0.000
1.900
Jan-3
0.300
1.000
1.900
Feb-1
0.300
1.100
1.900
Feb-2
0.500
2.500
1.900
Feb-3
0.500
3.800
2.300
Mar-1
0.500
5.200
3.600
Mar-2
0.500
7.300
5.800
Mar-3
0.500
8.300
6.300
Apr-1
0.700
8.900
7.100
Apr-2
0.700
9.400
8.000
Apr-3
1.600
9.800
9.500
May-1
3.300
9.900
11.800
Colombia — Seasonal Detail
Andean growing region · Bimodal rainfall · Year-round harvest
Colombia's bimodal rainfall creates two seasonal stress windows (Apr–Jun and Oct–Dec). Elevated CWSI in either peak flowering window is the key supply risk. Most recent dekads are preliminary ERA5/GFS data — subject to revision.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-5.000
-2.620
-0.670
Jan-2
-4.380
-5.000
-5.000
Jan-3
-5.000
5.000
-5.000
Feb-1
-0.150
1.940
-0.470
Feb-2
1.380
1.480
-0.380
Feb-3
-0.220
1.920
0.030
Mar-1
-0.910
-0.720
0.090
Mar-2
-1.750
0.490
0.680
Mar-3
0.070
-0.380
-1.630
Apr-1
-0.930
0.890
-0.030
Apr-2
-0.590
-0.830
-0.070
Apr-3
-0.700
0.300
0.720
May-1
-0.680
-0.170
0.610
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.420
0.440
0.410
Jan-2
0.440
0.420
0.400
Jan-3
0.430
0.400
0.380
Feb-1
0.440
0.400
0.380
Feb-2
0.430
0.410
0.390
Feb-3
0.440
0.420
0.380
Mar-1
0.430
0.430
0.370
Mar-2
0.420
0.440
0.380
Mar-3
0.420
0.440
0.380
Apr-1
0.430
0.450
0.400
Apr-2
0.450
0.450
0.400
Apr-3
0.450
0.460
0.430
May-1
0.460
0.470
0.460
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
116.900
98.100
18.100
Jan-2
89.600
30.600
35.900
Jan-3
103.900
67.200
11.500
Feb-1
94.600
82.700
94.100
Feb-2
93.500
104.700
38.000
Feb-3
57.700
104.900
14.500
Mar-1
21.800
93.000
43.000
Mar-2
48.500
126.300
87.800
Mar-3
88.100
108.000
68.800
Apr-1
90.500
155.100
105.800
Apr-2
112.100
99.000
81.700
Apr-3
105.400
162.100
184.000
May-1
36.400
132.700
187.900
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
20.700
20.900
22.200
Jan-2
20.600
21.500
22.700
Jan-3
21.100
21.400
23.400
Feb-1
21.100
21.700
22.000
Feb-2
20.900
21.500
23.000
Feb-3
21.500
21.300
23.000
Mar-1
21.800
21.400
23.100
Mar-2
21.800
21.200
23.300
Mar-3
21.800
21.800
22.900
Apr-1
21.500
21.100
22.300
Apr-2
21.500
22.000
23.200
Apr-3
21.300
21.100
21.600
May-1
21.500
20.900
21.800
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Colombia's Andean belt is warming ~0.3°C per decade — heat accumulation trending above historical ranges compresses the viable altitude band for arabica cultivation.
Dekad
2026 (dkd)
2025 (dkd)
2024 (dkd)
Jan-1
0.000
0.000
1.000
Jan-2
0.000
1.000
2.000
Jan-3
0.000
1.000
3.000
Feb-1
0.000
1.000
4.000
Feb-2
0.000
1.000
5.000
Feb-3
0.000
1.000
6.000
Mar-1
1.000
1.000
7.000
Mar-2
2.000
1.000
8.000
Mar-3
3.000
2.000
9.000
Apr-1
4.000
2.000
10.000
Apr-2
5.000
3.000
11.000
Apr-3
6.000
4.000
12.000
May-1
7.000
4.000
13.000
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Elevated readings in either bimodal flowering window (Apr–Jun, Oct–Dec) raise risk of pollen failure and reduced cherry set.
Dekad
2026 (°C·dkd)
2025 (°C·dkd)
2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1
0.000
0.000
1.100
Jan-2
0.000
0.300
2.600
Jan-3
0.000
0.300
4.400
Feb-1
0.000
0.300
4.700
Feb-2
0.000
0.300
5.900
Feb-3
0.000
0.300
7.200
Mar-1
0.200
0.300
8.700
Mar-2
0.400
0.300
10.400
Mar-3
0.800
0.700
11.900
Apr-1
1.000
0.700
12.900
Apr-2
1.400
1.600
15.000
Apr-3
1.700
1.700
15.600
May-1
2.200
1.700
16.400
Ethiopia — Seasonal Detail
Jimma / Sidama / Yirgacheffe · Africa's largest arabica producer
Main growing season driven by Kiremt rains (Jun–Oct). Belg rains (Feb–May) support the fly crop. Divergence above the grey envelope in June–August is the highest-impact risk window. Most recent dekads are preliminary ERA5/GFS data — subject to revision.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
-0.050
0.230
0.130
Jan-2
-0.180
-0.640
0.160
Jan-3
-0.510
0.220
0.470
Feb-1
0.470
-0.060
0.460
Feb-2
0.220
-1.000
0.740
Feb-3
0.740
-1.000
-0.790
Mar-1
-0.610
-0.650
0.500
Mar-2
-0.230
0.210
-0.780
Mar-3
-1.540
-0.050
0.010
Apr-1
-0.230
0.850
-0.710
Apr-2
0.660
-0.850
0.940
Apr-3
-0.450
3.770
-1.900
May-1
3.500
3.500
2.250
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.310
0.320
0.340
Jan-2
0.300
0.310
0.330
Jan-3
0.300
0.300
0.320
Feb-1
0.290
0.300
0.310
Feb-2
0.290
0.290
0.310
Feb-3
0.280
0.290
0.300
Mar-1
0.290
0.280
0.300
Mar-2
0.290
0.280
0.300
Mar-3
0.320
0.300
0.300
Apr-1
0.350
0.310
0.310
Apr-2
0.350
0.320
0.330
Apr-3
0.360
0.330
0.340
May-1
0.360
0.350
0.360
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Jan-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Jan-3
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-3
0.000
0.000
0.000
Mar-1
0.000
12.600
5.200
Mar-2
32.700
18.100
0.000
Mar-3
107.900
49.800
23.000
Apr-1
46.100
0.000
65.500
Apr-2
24.300
73.800
25.000
Apr-3
69.000
29.400
86.700
May-1
9.900
69.900
74.400
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
20.200
20.400
20.800
Jan-2
20.700
20.800
21.400
Jan-3
22.000
21.000
21.600
Feb-1
21.600
21.700
21.500
Feb-2
22.100
22.600
22.500
Feb-3
21.900
22.800
23.200
Mar-1
21.300
23.000
22.800
Mar-2
21.300
21.500
23.700
Mar-3
19.600
20.800
22.600
Apr-1
20.300
22.000
20.900
Apr-2
21.000
20.600
22.500
Apr-3
20.600
21.100
21.000
May-1
20.700
20.200
21.300
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Track accumulation through the Kiremt season (Jun–Oct) as the primary risk window.
Dekad
2026 (dkd)
2025 (dkd)
2024 (dkd)
Jan-1
1.000
1.000
1.000
Jan-2
2.000
2.000
2.000
Jan-3
3.000
3.000
3.000
Feb-1
4.000
4.000
4.000
Feb-2
5.000
5.000
5.000
Feb-3
5.000
6.000
6.000
Mar-1
5.000
7.000
7.000
Mar-2
5.000
7.000
8.000
Mar-3
5.000
7.000
9.000
Apr-1
5.000
8.000
9.000
Apr-2
6.000
8.000
10.000
Apr-3
7.000
9.000
11.000
May-1
8.000
10.000
12.000
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). Above-normal readings through the main growing season compound drought stress on yield formation.
Dekad
2026 (°C·dkd)
2025 (°C·dkd)
2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1
0.100
0.300
0.700
Jan-2
0.500
0.800
1.800
Jan-3
1.800
1.100
2.700
Feb-1
2.200
1.600
3.000
Feb-2
2.800
2.700
4.000
Feb-3
2.800
3.600
5.300
Mar-1
2.800
4.700
6.200
Mar-2
2.800
4.700
8.200
Mar-3
2.800
4.700
9.400
Apr-1
2.800
5.500
9.400
Apr-2
3.000
5.500
11.100
Apr-3
3.300
6.300
11.800
May-1
4.000
6.500
13.100
Central America — Seasonal Detail
Guatemala / Honduras / Costa Rica / El Salvador · High-altitude washed arabica
Central America’s arabica harvest runs November–March. The May–October rainy season drives crop development — sustained moisture stress during this window is the primary supply risk. Guatemala’s western highlands and Honduras’s mountain regions dominate regional volume. Most recent dekads are preliminary ERA5/GFS data — subject to revision.
Dekad
2026 (dev)
2025 (dev)
2024 (dev)
Jan-1
0.240
-0.550
0.240
Jan-2
0.030
0.210
-0.090
Jan-3
0.170
0.110
0.010
Feb-1
-1.000
1.070
-1.000
Feb-2
-1.000
2.060
-0.630
Feb-3
-1.910
0.260
-1.000
Mar-1
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
Mar-2
-0.910
-1.000
-1.000
Mar-3
-1.060
-1.000
-1.000
Apr-1
-0.960
-0.680
-1.000
Apr-2
-1.000
-1.000
-1.000
Apr-3
-1.000
-1.750
-1.000
May-1
-1.000
-2.470
-1.000
Dekad
2026 (fraction)
2025 (fraction)
2024 (fraction)
Jan-1
0.360
0.380
0.350
Jan-2
0.340
0.370
0.340
Jan-3
0.340
0.360
0.320
Feb-1
0.330
0.350
0.320
Feb-2
0.320
0.340
0.300
Feb-3
0.310
0.330
0.290
Mar-1
0.300
0.320
0.280
Mar-2
0.290
0.300
0.270
Mar-3
0.290
0.290
0.260
Apr-1
0.290
0.280
0.250
Apr-2
0.280
0.280
0.250
Apr-3
0.280
0.280
0.250
May-1
0.270
0.270
0.240
Dekad
2026 (mm)
2025 (mm)
2024 (mm)
Jan-1
0.000
38.600
0.000
Jan-2
18.200
0.000
4.800
Jan-3
12.200
28.400
5.000
Feb-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Feb-3
12.100
4.200
0.000
Mar-1
0.000
0.000
0.000
Mar-2
9.600
0.000
0.000
Mar-3
23.700
0.000
0.000
Apr-1
11.400
20.600
0.000
Apr-2
0.000
0.000
0.000
Apr-3
0.000
4.900
0.000
May-1
0.000
15.200
0.000
Dekad
2026 (°C)
2025 (°C)
2024 (°C)
Jan-1
21.400
21.800
22.700
Jan-2
21.500
22.400
23.500
Jan-3
21.700
22.100
23.000
Feb-1
19.500
22.700
22.100
Feb-2
22.400
23.000
23.700
Feb-3
22.400
23.200
22.600
Mar-1
23.400
24.000
25.000
Mar-2
23.500
24.400
25.700
Mar-3
22.600
24.300
26.200
Apr-1
23.900
24.600
26.000
Apr-2
24.200
23.800
25.700
Apr-3
25.100
24.500
25.900
May-1
26.200
25.700
27.100
Running count of dekads year-to-date where temperature exceeded the climatological normal. Persistent above-normal readings through the rainy season (May–Oct) compress the physiological recovery window before the Nov–Mar harvest.
Dekad
2026 (dkd)
2025 (dkd)
2024 (dkd)
Jan-1
0.000
1.000
1.000
Jan-2
0.000
2.000
2.000
Jan-3
0.000
3.000
3.000
Feb-1
0.000
4.000
4.000
Feb-2
1.000
5.000
5.000
Feb-3
1.000
6.000
5.000
Mar-1
2.000
7.000
6.000
Mar-2
3.000
8.000
7.000
Mar-3
3.000
9.000
8.000
Apr-1
3.000
9.000
9.000
Apr-2
3.000
9.000
10.000
Apr-3
4.000
9.000
11.000
May-1
5.000
10.000
12.000
Cumulative positive temperature anomaly year-to-date (°C × dekad). El Salvador and Guatemala have among the highest rates of climate-attributable harmful heat days — elevated readings here are a forward indicator of quality and yield pressure.
Dekad
2026 (°C·dkd)
2025 (°C·dkd)
2024 (°C·dkd)
Jan-1
0.000
0.200
1.100
Jan-2
0.000
1.100
3.100
Jan-3
0.000
1.500
4.400
Feb-1
0.000
2.200
4.500
Feb-2
0.100
2.900
5.900
Feb-3
0.100
3.300
5.900
Mar-1
0.600
4.400
8.000
Mar-2
0.700
5.400
10.300
Mar-3
0.700
5.900
12.700
Apr-1
0.700
5.900
14.100
Apr-2
0.700
5.900
15.200
Apr-3
0.800
5.900
16.100
May-1
2.100
6.700
18.300
Origin Deforestation Risk
GFW GLAD alerts · Vegetation stress · Supply chain data — Arabica growing regions
Deforestation risk index for each arabica growing region, combining Global Forest Watch
GLAD deforestation alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data.
This index reflects regional land-use pressure — not your specific supplier's compliance status.
Data is updated when GFW and Trase datasets refresh. Source: Global Forest Watch, Trase.earth, ERA5-Land.
Brazil Arabica
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 58,899,333 ha
Colombia
73 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 10,762,659 ha
Ethiopia
77 / 100
Risk Index · High
GLAD alerts: 32,303,506 ha
Risk index (0–100) combining GFW GLAD alert area, CWSI vegetation stress, and Trase supply chain data. Red line = High threshold (60). Gold line = Moderate threshold (40). Higher score = greater deforestation pressure in the production region.
Brazilian Real / USD
Key FX driver of arabica prices · BRL per USD · higher = weaker real
BRL/USD (Brazilian reais per US dollar). A rising rate means a weaker real —
Brazilian farmers receive more reais per bag exported, increasing their willingness to sell
and adding supply pressure to KC prices. A falling rate (stronger real) tends to support prices
as sellers hold back. Source: FRED / Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (DEXBZUS).
Dotted line: KC nearby futures price (¢/lb).