SoftSignal Research
Espírito Santo Conilon · Cost Coverage
Monthly supplement · August 22, 2026 · price through Jul 2026 · cost vintage Oct 2025
Origin cost & structure series
Espírito SantoConilon · cost coverageMinas GeraisArabica · cost coverage & cup ladderColombiaPark structure & productivity
At R$1,035 a bag, the Espírito Santo conilon price covers 124% of what CONAB last measured it cost to grow — against the 100% that marks breakeven on total economic cost. That ratio, not the price, is what decides whether the next fertilizer pass happens; and because coffee is perennial, the consequence of skipping it arrives two seasons later.
124%
Total-cost coverage
Jul 2026 price vs Oct 2025 cost
136%
Operational coverage
below 100% = inputs cut this season
R$1,035
ES conilon 7/8 BC
per 60kg bag, Jul 2026
90.0
Assumed yield sc/ha
CONAB Oct 2025 vintage
What the price covers
Rio Bananal-ES, a northern-belt panel still in the survey · monthly price against three cost hurdles · shaded region = cost basis carried forward from the last survey
Reading the three lines: below the variable hurdle the crop does not repay its own cash inputs and fruit gets left on the tree; below operational, inputs are cut within the season; below total, the grower is covering cash costs but consuming the capital value of the grove — the slow version, and the one that shows up as an aging, thinning park years later.
Read this vintage with the yield change in mind. At the Oct 2025 survey CONAB raised this panel's assumed yield from 75 to 90 bags per hectare. Cost per bag is cost per hectare divided by that number, so part of the move is the denominator, not the market: on the previous yield the same costs and the same price give 103% total-cost coverage against the 124% shown, a difference of 21 points.
What this chart is not: The cost basis is CONAB's Oct 2025 survey of Rio Bananal, now 9 months old. Everything in the shaded region is today's price measured against that older cost structure. Input costs have not stood still over that period, so treat the recent coverage level as an upper bound on the grower's true margin, not a measurement of it.
Every ES panel, at its own survey dates
Total-cost coverage · markers are actual CONAB observations, the line between them is interpolation · the survey runs roughly twice a year and skips years
The state is not one farm. Coverage last sat below total economic cost in Oct 2022. Colatina runs the thinnest of the 5 on average (115% of total cost) and Jaguaré the most comfortable (147%), on cost structures that differ far more than the single state price they all sell into. The lowest single reading belongs to Pinheiros at 67% in Nov 2019.
The assumption underneath the ratio
CONAB's assumed yield, bags per hectare · cost per bag is cost per hectare divided by this number
Why we publish this beside the ratio: cost per bag is cost per hectare divided by an assumed yield, and CONAB re-baselines a panel when it re-surveys it. A coverage ratio can therefore move with no change in input prices and no change in the market price — purely because the denominator was re-based. Any step in the line above is a survey revision, not a harvest. We cannot distinguish a correction from a genuine yield change in this data, so we show the assumption rather than bury it.
Espírito Santo export flow
Conilon certified and shipped through the port of Vitória · monthly, Oct 2014 – Jul 2026 · source: Centro de Comércio de Café do Estado do Espírito Santo (CCCV)
Why this sits beside the margin: coverage says what the grower earns against cost; flow says what actually left the state. The two disagreeing — a strong margin with a thinning shipment pace — is the signature of coffee being held back rather than sold, which is a positioning fact before it is a supply fact.
Sources & method

Cost coverage is the ES conilon farmgate price divided by CONAB's surveyed cost of production for the same site, as a percentage. Three hurdles are shown: variable cost (cash inputs), operational cost (variable plus fixed), and total economic cost (operational plus renda de fatores, the imputed opportunity cost of land, own capital and family labor). Costs are surveyed roughly twice a year and carried forward between surveys; prices are monthly.

A note on where the price is measured. The CCCV quotation is farmgate — pago no interior do E.S. — whereas the Minas Gerais page in this series uses a quote delivered São Paulo. The two coverage levels are therefore not directly comparable, and we have not tried to force them onto one basis.

We publish the coverage ratio and not CONAB's underlying cost level: that is a transformative statistic rather than a redistribution of their series, and it is in any case the more informative object — an absolute cost per bag says little without the price beside it.

Cost of production: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB), Levantamento de Custos de Produção, conilon panels, 2018–2025. Price: Espírito Santo conilon Tipo 7/8 BC, R$ per 60kg bag. Export flow: Centro de Comércio de Café do Estado do Espírito Santo (CCCV), daily bulletin, aggregated monthly by SoftSignal. Cost figures are CONAB's; the coverage ratio, the implied-yield series and the aggregated flow series are SoftSignal calculations and any error in them is ours.
Espírito Santo conilon monthly cost coverage, Rio Bananal-Es panel
MonthES conilon price (R$/60kg)Cost vintageVintage age (months)Assumed yield (sc/ha)Variable cover %Operational cover %Total cover %
2019-032912019-03075.0125.3110.7100.1
2019-042722019-03175.0117.1103.593.6
2019-052862019-03275.0123.1108.898.4
2019-062782019-03375.0119.7105.795.7
2019-072602019-03475.0111.998.989.5
2019-082732019-03575.0117.5103.893.9
2019-092882019-03675.0124.0109.599.1
2019-102852019-03775.0122.7108.498.1
2019-113052019-03875.0131.3116.0104.9
2019-122902019-03975.0124.8110.399.8
2020-012992019-031075.0128.7113.7102.9
2020-023042019-031175.0130.9115.6104.6
2020-033192020-03075.0132.2115.3109.9
2020-043242020-03175.0134.3117.1111.6
2020-053262020-03275.0135.1117.8112.3
2020-063412020-03375.0141.4123.2117.5
2020-073522020-03475.0145.9127.2121.3
2020-083952020-03575.0163.8142.8136.1
2020-093892020-03675.0161.3140.6134.0
2020-103912020-03775.0162.1141.3134.7
2020-113882020-11075.0144.7125.9123.3
2020-123812020-11175.0142.1123.6121.1
2021-014002020-11275.0149.2129.8127.1
2021-024232020-11375.0157.7137.3134.4
2021-034192021-03075.0135.4118.6117.0
2021-044252021-03175.0137.3120.3118.6
2021-054492021-03275.0145.1127.1125.3
2021-064732021-03375.0152.8133.9132.0
2021-075542021-03475.0179.0156.8154.6
2021-086602021-03575.0213.2186.8184.2
2021-097862021-03675.0253.9222.5219.4
2021-107412021-03775.0239.4209.7206.9
2021-117832021-11075.0172.2150.7148.5
2021-127922021-11175.0174.2152.5150.2
2022-017872021-11275.0173.1151.5149.3
2022-027662021-11375.0168.5147.5145.3
2022-037452022-03075.0153.2133.9130.8
2022-047612022-03175.0156.5136.8133.6
2022-056852022-03275.0140.9123.1120.3
2022-066812022-03375.0140.1122.4119.5
2022-076942022-03475.0142.7124.7121.8
2022-087262022-03575.0149.3130.5127.4
2022-097122022-03675.0146.4128.0125.0
2022-105502022-03775.0113.198.896.6
2022-115842022-11075.0127.9112.4105.8
2022-126522022-11175.0142.8125.5118.2
2023-016752022-11275.0147.9129.9122.3
2023-026672022-11375.0146.1128.4120.9
2023-036182023-03075.0152.6133.0123.8
2023-046402023-03175.0158.1137.8128.2
2023-056722023-03275.0166.0144.6134.6
2023-066082023-03375.0150.2130.9121.8
2023-076122023-03475.0151.1131.7122.6
2023-086212023-03575.0153.4133.7124.4
2023-096192023-03675.0152.9133.2124.0
2023-106252023-03775.0154.4134.5125.2
2023-116722023-11075.0183.6158.8147.7
2023-127402023-11175.0202.2174.9162.7
2024-018062023-11275.0220.2190.5177.2
2024-028082023-11375.0220.8190.9177.6
2024-039252023-11475.0252.7218.6203.4
2024-0410932023-11575.0298.7258.3240.3
2024-0511502023-11675.0314.2271.8252.8
2024-0611752023-11775.0321.1277.7258.3
2024-0712412023-11875.0339.1293.3272.8
2024-0813882023-11975.0379.3328.0305.1
2024-0914802023-111075.0404.4349.7325.4
2024-1013752024-10075.0271.6229.5200.5
2024-1117112024-10175.0337.9285.6249.5
2024-1217782024-10275.0351.2296.7259.3
2025-0120312024-10375.0401.1339.0296.2
2025-0219202024-10475.0379.2320.4280.0
2025-0319052024-10575.0376.2317.9277.8
2025-0416952024-10675.0334.8282.9247.2
2025-0513392024-10775.0264.5223.5195.3
2025-0610272024-10875.0202.8171.4149.8
2025-079662024-10975.0190.8161.2140.9
2025-0814902024-101075.0294.3248.7217.3
2025-0912832024-101175.0253.4214.1187.1
2025-1013542025-10090.0243.4178.4161.7
2025-1113672025-10190.0245.7180.1163.2
2025-1212152025-10290.0218.4160.1145.1
2026-0111332025-10390.0203.6149.3135.3
2026-029722025-10490.0174.7128.1116.1
2026-039112025-10590.0163.7120.0108.8
2026-048722025-10690.0156.7114.9104.1
2026-058962025-10790.0161.0118.1107.0
2026-0610032025-10890.0180.3132.2119.8
2026-0710352025-10990.0186.0136.4123.6
Espírito Santo Conilon · Cost Coverage · SoftSignal LLC
August 2026
SoftSignal Research ↗
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