SoftSignal Research
Minas Gerais Arabica · Cost Coverage & the Cup Ladder
Monthly supplement · September 01, 2026 · price through Aug 2026 · cost vintage Oct 2025
Origin cost & structure series
Espírito SantoConilon · cost coverageMinas GeraisArabica · cost coverage & cup ladderColombiaPark structure & productivity
At R$1,744 a bag, the Minas Gerais top-cup arabica price covers 143% of what CONAB last measured it cost to grow — against the 100% that marks breakeven on total economic cost. But a grower does not sell “arabica”, they sell a cup: the bottom of the CCCMG ladder is currently 30% below the top, so the same season pays two very different margins on the same hillside.
143%
Total-cost coverage
Aug 2026 price vs Oct 2025 cost
154%
Operational coverage
below 100% = inputs cut this season
R$1,744
Arabica T6 dura
per 60kg bag, Aug 2026
30%
Cup discount
top to bottom tier, Aug 2026
Reading the three lines: below the variable hurdle the crop does not repay its own cash inputs and fruit gets left on the tree; below operational, inputs are cut within the season; below total, the grower is covering cash costs but consuming the capital value of the grove — the slow version, and the one that shows up as an aging, thinning park years later.
What this chart is not: The cost basis is CONAB's Oct 2025 survey of Manhuaçu, now 10 months old. Everything in the shaded region is today's price measured against that older cost structure. Input costs have not stood still over that period, so treat the recent coverage level as an upper bound on the grower's true margin, not a measurement of it.
The state is not one farm. Coverage last sat below total economic cost in Jan 2020. Sao Sebastiao Do Paraiso runs the thinnest of the 5 on average (84% of total cost) and Três Pontas the most comfortable (224%), on cost structures that differ far more than the single state price they all sell into. The lowest single reading belongs to Patrocínio at 45% in Nov 2017.
Why this belongs next to a cost line: the cost of producing a bag barely varies with the cup it turns out to be — the fertilizer, the pruning and the picking are already spent by the time quality is known. So the ladder falls almost entirely on the margin, and the coverage chart above, drawn on the top tier, is the best case rather than the average one.
The penalty for a poor cup has widened. Through the first year of the series the bottom tier sat 14% below the top; across the last twelve months it averaged 31%. Measured in reais a widening gap could be nothing more than a higher price level, which is why this is drawn as a share — the share is what says the discount itself got deeper.

Cost coverage is the MG arabica price divided by CONAB's surveyed cost of production for the same site, as a percentage. Three hurdles are shown: variable cost (cash inputs), operational cost (variable plus fixed), and total economic cost (operational plus renda de fatores, the imputed opportunity cost of land, own capital and family labor). Costs are surveyed roughly twice a year and carried forward between surveys; prices are monthly.

A note on where the price is measured. The CCCMG quotation is delivered São Paulo, NPR-discounted and ex-tax, whereas the Espírito Santo page in this series uses a farmgate quote. The two coverage levels are therefore not directly comparable, and we have not tried to force them onto one basis: road haulage from the coffee belt to Santos runs roughly R$8–11 a bag against a quoted MG–ES gap of about R$128, so a freight netback would imply a precision the correction does not carry. We state the difference instead of adjusting for it.

We publish the coverage ratio and not CONAB's underlying cost level: that is a transformative statistic rather than a redistribution of their series, and it is in any case the more informative object — an absolute cost per bag says little without the price beside it.

Cost of production: Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (CONAB), Levantamento de Custos de Produção, 2018–2025. Price and cup ladder: Centro do Comércio de Café de Minas Gerais (CCCMG), month-end quotations. Cost and quotation figures are CONAB's and CCCMG's respectively; the coverage ratio, the implied-yield series and the cup-discount share are SoftSignal calculations and any error in them is ours.
Minas Gerais arabica monthly cost coverage and cup ladder
MonthT6 dura R$/60kgCost vintageVintage age (months)Assumed yield (sc/ha)Variable cover %Operational cover %Total cover %
2018-014232017-11235.0112.0103.196.7
2018-024212017-11335.0111.5102.696.3
2018-034162018-03035.0108.196.290.9
2018-044272018-03135.0110.998.893.4
2018-054482018-03235.0116.4103.697.9
2018-064422018-03335.0114.8102.396.6
2018-074232018-07035.084.276.773.7
2018-084142018-07135.082.475.172.1
2018-094072018-07235.081.073.870.9
2018-104232018-07335.084.276.773.7
2018-114152018-11035.096.786.482.8
2018-123962018-11135.092.382.479.0
2019-014032018-11235.093.983.980.4
2019-023842018-11335.089.579.976.6
2019-033812018-11435.088.879.376.0
2019-043742018-11535.087.277.874.6
2019-054142018-11635.096.586.282.6
2019-064272018-11735.099.588.985.2
2019-073902018-11835.090.981.277.8
2019-084082018-11935.095.184.981.4
2019-094242018-111035.098.888.284.6
2019-104222018-111135.098.387.884.2
2019-115002019-11026.0133.3118.5108.1
2019-125322019-11126.0141.9126.1115.0
2020-014622019-11226.0123.2109.599.9
2020-025042019-11326.0134.4119.4109.0
2020-035672020-03026.0153.9122.6115.2
2020-045572020-03126.0151.2120.4113.2
2020-055162020-03226.0140.1111.6104.8
2020-065112020-03326.0138.7110.5103.8
2020-075712020-03426.0155.0123.5116.0
2020-086002020-03526.0162.9129.7121.9
2020-095312020-03626.0144.2114.8107.9
2020-105372020-03726.0145.8116.1109.1
2020-116162020-11026.0165.8133.5131.9
2020-126122020-11126.0164.7132.6131.1
2021-016572020-11226.0176.9142.4140.7
2021-027332020-11326.0197.3158.9157.0
2021-037042021-03026.0161.5128.3127.3
2021-047682021-03126.0176.2140.0138.9
2021-058702021-03226.0199.6158.6157.4
2021-068352021-03326.0191.6152.2151.0
2021-079862021-03426.0226.2179.7178.3
2021-0810582021-03526.0242.8192.8191.4
2021-0911522021-03626.0264.3210.0208.4
2021-1012402021-03726.0284.5226.0224.3
2021-1113942021-11026.0211.6171.2168.6
2021-1214172021-11126.0215.0174.0171.4
2022-0114352021-11226.0217.8176.2173.5
2022-0214212021-11326.0215.7174.5171.9
2022-0312362022-03026.0190.1150.2147.1
2022-0412762022-03126.0196.3155.1151.8
2022-0512752022-03226.0196.1155.0151.7
2022-0613662022-03326.0210.1166.1162.6
2022-0712972022-03426.0199.5157.7154.3
2022-0813252022-03526.0203.8161.1157.7
2022-0912712022-03626.0195.5154.5151.2
2022-1010002022-03726.0153.8121.6119.0
2022-1110042022-11026.0157.8129.0123.6
2022-1210302022-11126.0161.9132.3126.8
2023-0111132022-11226.0174.9143.0137.1
2023-0211472022-11326.0180.3147.4141.2
2023-0310452023-03026.0180.2141.9135.3
2023-0410692023-03126.0184.3145.2138.4
2023-059952023-03226.0171.6135.1128.8
2023-068062023-03326.0139.0109.5104.3
2023-078302023-03426.0143.1112.7107.4
2023-088272023-03526.0142.6112.3107.1
2023-098042023-03626.0138.6109.2104.1
2023-108792023-03726.0151.6119.4113.8
2023-119472023-11026.0159.9129.9121.2
2023-1210132023-11126.0171.1138.9129.7
2024-0110362023-11226.0175.0142.1132.6
2024-0210092023-11326.0170.4138.4129.1
2024-0310442024-03026.0179.3142.1131.4
2024-0412122024-03126.0208.1165.0152.5
2024-0512702024-03226.0218.1172.9159.8
2024-0613532024-03326.0232.3184.2170.3
2024-0713902024-03426.0238.7189.2174.9
2024-0814242024-03526.0244.5193.9179.2
2024-0915062024-03626.0258.6205.0189.5
2024-1015342024-10026.0234.9177.6164.9
2024-1120582024-10126.0315.2238.3221.2
2024-1221862024-10226.0334.8253.1235.0
2025-0124512024-10326.0375.4283.8263.5
2025-0224632024-10426.0377.2285.2264.7
2025-0325152025-03026.0337.3237.1222.5
2025-0426492025-03126.0355.2249.7234.4
2025-0523272025-03226.0312.1219.4205.9
2025-0618442025-03326.0247.3173.8163.1
2025-0718302025-03426.0245.4172.5161.9
2025-0823402025-03526.0313.8220.6207.0
2025-0921492025-03626.0288.2202.6190.1
2025-1022372025-10026.0267.3197.3182.9
2025-1122492025-10126.0268.7198.4183.9
2025-1221572025-10226.0257.7190.3176.4
2026-0120142025-10326.0240.6177.6164.7
2026-0217892025-10426.0213.7157.8146.3
2026-0318712025-10526.0223.5165.0153.0
2026-0417522025-10626.0209.3154.5143.3
2026-0515532025-10726.0185.5137.0127.0
2026-0616722025-10826.0199.8147.5136.7
2026-0717332025-10926.0207.0152.9141.7
2026-0817442025-101026.0208.4153.8142.6
CCCMG arabica cup ladder, all four tiers
MonthT6 duraT7 duraT6 riadaT7 rioDiscount % of top
2016-0545844240836819.65
2016-0648847244039918.24
2016-0749247744340916.87
2016-0848146743740316.22
2016-0949948745340219.44
2016-1053251948744616.17
2016-1152150848244614.40
2016-1247146043541112.74
2017-0151250348145710.74
2017-024874774604399.86
2017-034744644534368.02
2017-044474374254137.61
2017-054494344214098.91
2017-064424274144009.50
2017-0745944543141110.46
2017-084404294164018.86
2017-0944142941739610.20
2017-1045043842340310.44
2017-1145844943041210.04
2017-124334274104007.62
2018-014234184033888.27
2018-024214154003809.74
2018-0341640939437410.10
2018-0442741940338110.77
2018-0544843642339412.05
2018-0644243141738812.22
2018-0742341239937311.82
2018-0841440439236811.11
2018-0940739637134714.74
2018-1042341139335516.08
2018-1141540338334915.90
2018-1239638635633116.41
2019-0140339337134215.14
2019-0238437636031517.97
2019-0338137636131617.06
2019-0437436535031416.04
2019-0541440538234017.87
2019-0642741339834519.20
2019-0739038136530920.77
2019-0840839835930425.49
2019-0942441337331126.65
2019-1042241136730727.25
2019-1150048642234331.40
2019-1253251745435633.08
2020-0146244742931831.17
2020-0250448446236028.57
2020-0356754651038332.45
2020-0455753950437532.68
2020-0551648046536130.04
2020-0651149645838424.85
2020-0757155450540628.90
2020-0860058052141231.33
2020-0953150945236431.45
2020-1053751646137230.73
2020-1161659353439436.04
2020-1261258953942031.37
2021-0165763358044831.81
2021-0273371065050630.97
2021-0370468262248630.97
2021-0476875268653630.21
2021-0587083877861629.20
2021-0683580874861226.71
2021-0798696190371227.79
2021-081058102697785619.09
2021-0911521124107296216.49
2021-10124012181168104415.81
2021-11139413651319121512.84
2021-12141713961340124012.49
2022-01143514151374128910.17
2022-0214211398134312859.57
2022-03123612141152110011.00
2022-04127612581184111212.85
2022-05127512501175111112.86
2022-06136613461254116214.93
2022-07129712711189109715.42
2022-08132513011216111016.23
2022-09127112501165106716.05
2022-10100097990481418.60
2022-11100497991583916.43
2022-121030101095487415.15
2023-0111131069100692017.34
2023-0211471108103494117.96
2023-031045102396988415.41
2023-0410691047100190015.81
2023-0599596791182616.98
2023-0680678374466617.37
2023-0783080075869016.87
2023-0882779775570414.87
2023-0980477072766816.92
2023-1087985781173216.72
2023-1194792587778716.90
2023-12101399294181719.35
2024-011036101795885217.76
2024-02100999193584616.15
2024-031044102297187815.90
2024-04121211821141104813.53
2024-05127012421191108814.33
2024-06135313261264113815.89
2024-07139013651304116516.19
2024-08142413951329120015.73
2024-09150614561386123318.13
2024-10153414831378126917.28
2024-11205820281916176914.04
2024-12218621502048191112.58
2025-01245123822272214312.57
2025-02246324182319210314.62
2025-03251524752334209816.58
2025-04264925872381212519.78
2025-05232722492055178323.38
2025-06184417891611133627.55
2025-07183017771659123932.30
2025-08234022892033168827.86
2025-09214920881925149930.25
2025-10223721761955154630.89
2025-11224922011943153231.88
2025-12215721001881146432.13
2026-01201419631735135832.57
2026-02178917321508122731.41
2026-03187118091557129930.57
2026-04175216991444116033.79
2026-05155314861267100935.03
2026-06167216011417119428.59
2026-07173316501409119930.81
2026-08174416861458122429.82
Why we publish this beside the ratio: cost per bag is cost per hectare divided by an assumed yield, and CONAB re-baselines a panel when it re-surveys it. A coverage ratio can therefore move with no change in input prices and no change in the market price — purely because the denominator was re-based. Any step in the line above is a survey revision, not a harvest. We cannot distinguish a correction from a genuine yield change in this data, so we show the assumption rather than bury it.